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Posted At : June 1, 2008 1:05 AM | Posted By : D Matthews
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Poker
I'm writing this to you now because I am no longer in the $1,500 buy-in NLHE event which I entered today. I made it to level 6, about 40 minutes before dinner, but could not continue. My final hand was 55 all in preflop against AK and the board came 77AA3. No good for me.
Two well known poker players were at my table: Rafe Furst, a Full Tilt Poker pro, and Mori Eskandani who is the executive producer of Poker After Dark.
Mori related to the table that his program is getting the best ratings ever in that time slot "by far" and is getting between 880,000 to 1.2 million viewers per episode. He also said that there will be some new episodes including a $100,000 minimum buy in cash game with $200-$400 blinds and a $100 ante. I believe he said those episodes begin on July 14. You can read more about Mori on his Web site here.
Rafe proposed a prop bet to Mori and one other person at the table. He suggested that the three people each choose 8 poker players and write them down. After those names are written, the three sheets are opened up and any duplicates are crossed off. After that, whoever's group gets the most bracelets in this year's WSOP wins $1,000 from the other two. I decided to accept the bet. Sounded like fun and a good way to interact with a couple pros.
Before I list the picks, here's a pick of me and Rafe.

So we picked our names. The ones in bold and italics were duplicates:
Rafe picked:
David Singer, Chris Ferguson, Robert Mizrachi, Michael Mizrachi, Chad Brown, Eric Lynch, Michael Binger, and Jeff Lisandro
Mori picked:
Thor Hansen, David Singer, Johnny Chan, Phil Hellmuth, Todd Brunson, Gus Hansen, Barry Greenstein, and Doyle Brunson
I picked:
Eric Seidel, Andy Bloch, Phil Ivey, Robert WIlliamson III, Phil Hellmuth, Dan Harrington, Chris Ferguson, and Alan Cunningham
So the way this works is that if a person in one of the groups gets a bracelet then the person who picked him gets a point. Whoever has the most points at the end of the WSOP wins $1,000 from the other two. If all three players tie then it's a push. If 2 players tie for a win then the losing player will pay $500 each to the other two.
I felt that each of us is a huge dog to even get one bracelet winner from our list so Rafe made a side bet with me on just my list. I have a side bet with Rafe for $1,000 that I will be shutout of bracelets. In other words, I'm betting my group will get 0 bracelets. Seems odd to bet against myself, right?
When I bet, I want to bet at a positive EV. I felt that the original bet was a neutral EV with no big edge for anyone. I think the main thing is pick people who are going to play every event they possibly can. The second bet, I think I have a big edge on.
If I win outright, then I win $2,000 but lose $1,000 for a $1k profit.
If I get shutout and one of the other guys wins then I break even.
If everyone gets 0 bracelets then I win $1,000 because of a push on the main bet and a win on the shutout bet.
I can lose $2,000 if I end up having someone in my group get a bracelet while at the same time losing to another person's group who gets more bracelets than my group. That would be worst case scenario. Hopefully that won't happen.
Incidentally, we agreed not to count the first event.
"middling" it with the side bet.