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Posted At : October 3, 2008 02:03 PM | Posted By : D McKee
Related Categories:
Macau,MGM Mirage,James Packer,Stanley Ho,Steve Wynn,Sheldon Adelson
Just when I was breathing a sigh of relief that maybe Peking wasn't going to drop a thrice-yearly quota of Macanese visits on the citizens of Guangdong Province, along comes a bulletin from JP Morgan that'll cause alarm. All right, September revenues on the order of $862 million are nothing at which to sneeze.
But those 6.9 billion clams represent a 3% decline from September '07. Since casino revenues grew 44% this August, despite weather- and Olympics-related disruptions, this isn't just the market absorbing new capacity. Remember, since Sept. 1, visitors holding visas to Hong Kong can't pass on through to Macao anymore.
So, even without putting additional curbs on the movement of people and money into Macao, the Chinese government has already inflicted damage. It's too soon to know the degree of severity, but a reversal this sudden isn't going to restore investor confidence. JP Morgan is already telling them they "are best served on the sidelines in the near term."
In descending order, market share was divvied up as follows: Las Vegas Sands (28%), Stanley Ho (25.5%), Wynn Resorts (19%), Galaxy Entertainment (10%), MGM Mirage/Pansy Ho (8%) and Melco Crown Entertainment (8%). Those numbers aren't weighted toward high-end play, which might give us a very different picture, one more favorable to Melco Crown, which is getting some love as a bargain stock play.
Given the disproportionate amount of market share he's garnered, I still think Steve Wynn is the primary victor in Macao, especially when you consider the enormous head start enjoyed by archrival Sheldon Adelson. I suppose Wynn could offer to help prop up Sands' loan covenants, if he felt like rubbing salt in the wound.
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