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Posted At : November 3, 2008 03:15 PM | Posted By : D McKee
Related Categories:
Alaska,Minnesota,Election
I've been checking Intrade's election "futures" markets and, if you "buy" Sen. John McCain at 9.9 you could collect on the longshot of a lifetime. (I'm of the pessimistic "I'll believe an Obama win when I see it and not one second before" persuasion.) Unless, that is, you want to go waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay out an Aleutians-length limb and buy Ted Stevens "futures" (which is an ironic term, seeing as Sen. Stevens appears to have no future whatsoever -- at least none that don't involve a long series of numbers across his back).
I notice that Intrade's odds have reversed on the Al Franken/Sen. Norm Coleman slugfest in Minnesota, while the trends in all the other ones I profiled last week have solidified. (Reform Party candidate Dean Barkley is a respected figure and has made a robust showing in the polls but is doomed to be an also-ran yet again.)
So I see no reason to amend my prediction: Dems gain six seats, for a total of 55 (plus Bernie Sanders), but Coleman comes from behind late in the fourth quarter to prevent further GOP erosion.
Forget Tim Pawlenty; if Coleman pulls this out I expect him to be the Minnesotan to start showing up on the futures markets as a contender for 2012.
Eighteen months later ... Believe it or not, it's been 18 months since Michelle Obama made her first campaign visit to Nevada. Yours truly was detailed to cover that June '07 stump speech -- actually more of a marketing effort to raise people's comfort level with the Obama "brand" -- which I sandwiched between CineVegas screenings. So how does today's visit compare to what seems like 18 years ago?
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