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My Senate predictions

Posted At : November 5, 2008 02:11 PM | Posted By : D McKee
Related Categories: Sheldon Adelson,Election

As I expected, Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) won by a whisker. Expect to see more of this Minnesotan. (Update: Or maybe not. Darn that e-voting!) Oft-touted Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) was on Rachel Maddow the other night and, no disrespect, but he's got all the charisma of damp cardboard.

It looks like both Intrade and I got it wrong on the Alaska and Oregon races -- although absentee ballots could still tip the former and the latter has one big-ass "hanging chad" in the form of a large, still-uncounted county. But right now it looks like my crystal ball (i.e., the futures market) wasn't that much better than an opinion poll, after all.

(Update: Right Pundits is calling Oregon for challenger Jeff Merkley. If so, that'd be a high-profile loss for Freedom's Watch, which made a big push for GOP incumbent Gordon Smith. Sorry, Sheldon.)

The GOP's not going to be asking for my advice anytime soon (like, frigging never), but it's hard to second-guess the 2008 veepstakes; would any of the "boring white guys" McCain insiders said they considered and ultimately rejected have tipped the balance the other way? I doubt it.

Somebody had to play the 'dead man's hand' Republicans were dealt this cycle and Senator McCain got it the old-fashioned way: He earned it. He out-stumped, out-persisted and just plain out-lasted a clutch of also-rans. (Many of his opponents seemed to forget that, as McCain once said, for five years he went to bed "in a hotel where they don't leave a mint on your pillow at night," in an oblique reference to the Hanoi Hilton.)

Considering that Mitt Romney made his bones in private equity, he could have been the poster child for the Wall Street bailout and that was baggage McCain didn't need. Anyway, the GOP minority in the Senate's going to need either a mediagenic face of the "loyal opposition" (and I'm sorry but Sen. Mitch McConnell is no Bob Dole) or a deal-brokering elder statesman when things get all filibuster-y and stuff, to use my hifalutin' parliamentary lingo. Rest assured that "the Mac [will be] back" in a starring role.

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