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This just in ...

Posted At : May 30, 2008 01:49 PM | Posted By : D McKee
Related Categories: Columbia Sussex,Macau,MGM Mirage,Regulation,Donald Trump,Atlantic City,Detroit

So Tropicana Atlantic City trustee Justice Gary Stein wants to toss the existing bids for the property ... possibly because better ones are being dangled before him. As a consequence, he wants to restart the clock, which would push the deadline for a Trop sale into October. With Columbia Sussex's appeal of its New Jersey license denial still hanging fire, a longer timeline for the sale is a fait accompli anyway.

While a New York investment group ($950 million), Colony Capital ($850 million) and Cordish Cos. ($???) are believed to have bid on the Trop, it remains unknown whether there are more -- or fewer -- bids on the table. After all, Colony's 2006 bid for Aztar Corp. turned out to be just hot air, so there's no assurance its trigger finger has proven stronger this time 'round.

If Stein is hearing offers in the neighborhood of $1 billion or more, that'd run a cart and horses through Tropicana Entertainment co-President Scott Butera's contention that, by selling the Trop in the present economy and in within a set timeframe, the New Jersey Casino Control Commission is driving down the price of the asset. Actually, yesterday's sale of Trump Marina put paid to that argument, as the highest known bid for the Trop ($950 million) is more than three times the amount being paid for the Marina.

Turning to Trump Marina, while it's hard to think its fortunes could get much lower, it's worth noting that Trump Entertainment Resorts was reduced to selling it to a company (Coastal Development) whose main claim to casino cred is that it's the plurality shareholder in the Suffolk Downs racetrack.

These aren't the days to be learning on the job in Atlantic City. Even Columbia Sussex had a modicum of casino experience and look how badly it screwed the pooch. (Coastal's "Margaritaville" deal is a first step in the right direction, though.)

As for Coastal buying the Marina at an 11X EBIDTA multiple, instead of the standard 7X ($200 million), at least analyst Justin Sebastiano says what I only dared think: The high multiple is a way of 'stashing' a litigation settlement within the sale price. Ironic that Trump and Coastal fell out over a Hard Rock franchising deal. Many years back, Donald Trump had a deal in place with the Rank Organisation to re-brand the then-Trump Castle as a Hard Rock hotel -- an accord that fell apart the night before it was to be formally announced.

Greektown joins Columbia Sussex ... in Chapter 11, that is. Seems the tribally owned Detroit casino has gotten quite a bit overextended in its borrowing. The giant sucking sound that is MGM Grand Detroit vacuuming up customers can't be helping, either. Greektown is profitable but just barely.

On a more practical level, Greektown's current facility is cut-rate, and overcrowded with tables and slots. Despite a few gestures at Gilded Age plush and the convenience of being right on the People Mover, Greektown exudes "second tier" and is in danger of being selected out by escalating competition -- making it all the more imperative that the half-billion-dollar permanent casino-hotel get finished.

Overseas, University of Macao economics professor Fong Ka Chio predicts that Guangdong Province's cutback on visa applications to Macao may boomerang. The Chinese government has made no secret of its desire to have a Macanese economy that's less casino-centric (60% of GDP). However, Fong says this latest market intervention may be counterproductive, resulting in a 7.5% casino-revenue drop that could drive casino operators to scrap future projects.

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