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MGM's quarter: Not as bad as it sounds

Posted At : August 5, 2008 04:22 PM | Posted By : D McKee
Related Categories: Wall Street,Macau,Steve Wynn,MGM Mirage,The Strip,Sheldon Adelson,Monte Carlo fire,Stanley Ho,Movies

Although MGM Mirage's latest earnings report inspired some apocalyptic headlines, William Spain of Marketwatch has ferreted out numbers that put MGM's earnings announcement into a less-sensationalized context. True, any profit falloff in 2Q08 was cushioned by the insurance payout from the Monte Carlo fire.

But ... we're also measuring last quarter against an aberrant 2Q07 because, as Spain points out, it was a year ago that MGM booked $264 million from the sale of its Primm, Nev., properties to Herbst Gaming. (Which proved to be Herbst's near-undoing, but that's a story for another day.) Besides, if your occupany fell to "only" 97%, you're clearly doing something right. I can vividly remember a period, during the pre-9/11 boom, when 89-92% occupancy was a sign of vitality.

Headline to the contrary, the Sun story paints a fairly reassuring picture of MGM's health, except for the fact that -- as company execs freely admit -- the company is having its ass kicked in Macao. MGM's business model over there is clearly a dud if Steve Wynn is pulling down 6.7X as much operating profit. Even Las Vegas Sands, which went into a panic shortly after Venetian Macao opened, is doing six times as well as the MGM/Pansy Ho operation. (The Wynn metric is more impressive because it's being achieved with only one casino vs. Sheldon Adelson's two.) Geez, if the numbers get any worse, Stanley Ho will be too embarrassed to keep referring to MGM Grand Macau as "my casino." Maybe MGM's plan to add more VIP-play capacity will start to turn things around.

The shoe's on the other foot in Vegas, where Bellagio is walloping "Megacenter," posting $7 more operating profit than the undynamic duo of Venetian and Palazzo combined. MGM may be reaping the fruits of Steve Wynn's labor (or Glenn Schaeffer's, in the case of Mandalay Bay) but it's also displaying the power of something Sands evidently lacks: brand equity.

Other interesting footnotes, courtesy of Liz Benston: While MGM CEO J. Terrence Lanni acknowledged getting clocked by Wynn in Macao, Adelson seems to have gone unmentioned. Is this Lanni's payback for Adelson trash-talking MGM not so long ago?

And while you'd expect big-ticket entertainment to be an expendable expense right now, Cirque du Soleil's box office is actually up. Which means two things: A) The producers of Believe can heave a sigh of relief, and B) a recession makes people seek the comfort of French-Canadian clowns. Which is the really scary part, if you ask me.

ABBA > Coldplay. So say British pop fans, judging by the fact that a long-available compilation CD has evicted Coldplay from the #1 spot on the best-selling album chart. Couple this with a $200 million-plus worldwide gross for the Mamma Mia! film, and Benny & Bjorn are enjoying sweet revenge on all those people -- like me -- who made fun of them 30 years ago. Now we're doing penance by learning that while "Waterloo" phonates beautifully in French, it sounds bloody awful in German.

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