Wednesday's clutch of JP Morgan research notes included a "Macau Market Update," which puts current Macao-related jitters into perspective. Salient points include ...

• A 44% revenue growth in August was unexpectedly good (despite what you may have read elsewhere), especially considering the pincer effect of the Olympic Games in Peking and typhoon season.

• There's no hard evidence of further visa restrictions into Macao, which would impinge upon 25%-33% of the current customer base.

• Expect some mass-market decline, though, now that Hong Kong visa-holders from the mainland can't pass on through to Macao.

• A formal commission cap for junketeers should be in place by mid-month. "We have heard of some operators going above [the current maximum] in an effort to win business after the commission cap goes into place. Sounds short-sighted to us."

• No sign of write-offs of player debt or "irrational promotions," though.

• Oct.-Dec. is likely to see a dramatic slowdown on revenue growth, into the 10%-20% range (partly because the huge capacity influx represented by Venetian Macao will make for tougher year/year comparisons). But this A Good Thing, paradoxically, because the Chinese government will be less inclined to clamp down on travel to Macao if it's convinced that the casino market is decelerating on its own.

• "We were impressed with the quality" of Four Seasons Hotel Macao. Its shopping mall reminded them of Wynn Las Vegas. (It's hard to guess whether Sheldon Adelson will take that as a compliment or a slight.)

• There's not a lot of new capacity coming into the market the rest of the year. Most of what remains to be added in '08 will stem from a MGM Grand expansion and Stanley Ho's new Arce [sic] de Triomphe.

• Huge amounts of new capacity in '09 -- including a 50% increase in slots -- the considerable plurality of that stemming from Las Vegas Sands' Sheraton/St. Regis and Shangri-La/Traders properties ... not to mention the debut of Melco Crown Entertainment's much-anticipated City of Dreams.

• 2010 will be an absorption year, with only a modest infusion of new casino positions, courtesy of Encore at Wynn Macau ...

• ... and then a tidal wave of casino-hotel product hits town, in the form of three new Sands properties, and one each from Wynn, MGM and Melco Crown: 2,380 tables and 8,985 new slots on top of an installed base of 7,007 and 18,312, respectively. (Interestingly, Galaxy Entertainment's new-project pipeline seems to peter out after next year.)

• Both mass-market and VIP play at Sands Macao have been, on the whole, depressed since Venetian Macao's opening -- but it's perilous to draw conclusions here because the VIP numbers swing wildly from month to month, among other factors. (Some of the non-Sands Macao charts appear to be misprints and can't be cited.)

Cotai Strip™: too much, too soon?

• Market share. This is a biggie. According to JP Morgan's data, Stanley Ho has finally slid into second place, a few fractions of a point behind Crown Melco (co-owned by son Lawrence Ho). But the real story may be Steve Wynn. With one casino, he's garnered 17% of the market to Adelson's 19% and the elder Ho's 21%. If I were a Sands shareholder, this would worry me.

MGM shareholders, on the other hand, take some relief from the news that MGM's lone property -- for all its well-publicized struggles -- has captured almost as much market share (10% vs. 11%) as all of Galaxy's casinos put together. MGM's share of chip purchases grew to 7.5% in July (from a 1% start), while Stanley Ho's and Galaxy's percentages steadily declined over the same 10-month period.

• Sands may profess unconcern with travel restrictions on its mass-market customers but no company has more mass-market exposure in Macao than does Adelson's (with Ho's SJM running a close second). Crown has by far the least.

• Long-term forecast. Steady double-digit growth through 2011, somewhat offset by single-digit declines in win per position, as new slots and tables saturate the market. For 2009-11, JP Morgan projects 10% growth in VIP-based revenues, plus two years of 15% growth in the slot- and mass-market segments, followed by an expansion to 17.5% in 2011.

There's more, but it's Friday, it's late and you've suffered enough. Enjoy the weekend.