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Posted At : January 13, 2009 10:59 AM | Posted By : D McKee
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Melco Crown Entertainment,Macau,Sheldon Adelson,Stanley Ho,Steve Wynn,Wall Street
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Or "City of -- interrupted -- Dreams" as it's called on Flickr. Whatever the case, Melco Crown Entertainment is committing to a 2Q09 opening of City of Dreams, hopefully absorbing some of unemployment currently stemming from Las Vegas Sands' stuttering Macanese operations and from struggles and the company's own Crown Macau. (Most of the 9,000 Sands-related pink slips are in construction, so don't expect City of Dreams 7,000 job openings to make much of a dent there.)
Either CEO Lawrence Ho has a back channel to Peking or he's engaging in wishful thinking. Either way, he predicted to reporters that visa restrictions from the Chinese mainland would be eased in "the next few months" (just in time for the City of Dreams opening, imagine that) and that last weekend's visit to Macao by the vice president of China means that economic relief is on the way. While Peking needs to reopen the throttle on visitation to Macao, its stated priority -- wrongheaded or otherwise -- remains that the semi-autonomous zone must diversify its economy. (Talk about "easier said than done"!)
Ho's views stand in stark contrast to those of a pair of Morgan Stanley analysts who foresee no visa relief -- plus a further 10% decline in casino revenue -- for the balance of 2009. Furthermore, Deutsche Bank's Karen Tang points out that high-end Melco Crown is an unlikely beneficiary of increased mass-market play (think SJM, maybe Sands).
If average casino revenue continues at the diminished rates projected by Macao über-boss Edmund Ho (no relation), Melco Crown would be looking at a 19% falloff from its 3Q08 pace. It would also mean that casino revenues in the enclave are flat with 2007, despite a considerable infusion of new capacity. As discomfiting as it may be, taking a "go (very) slow" policy on additional construction is -- with the arguable exception of overachiever Wynn Macau -- clearly the prudent course of action.
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