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Packer gets a discount; solving the I-15 problem

Posted At : March 16, 2009 01:50 PM | Posted By : D McKee
Related Categories: California,Cannery Casino Resorts,James Packer,Australia,Technology

Though it can't seem to settle on a dollar figure for James Packer's renegotiated Cannery Casino Resorts purchase, this story makes one salient point: A $1.7 billion-plus acquisition could be converted into a 25% stake for $370 million-$390 million. That effectively reprices 100% of Cannery at $1.48 billion-$1.56 billion. Which enables Packer to save face on what is described as an "increasingly onerous deal." Or it could be a graceful way of bowing out of further U.S. casino adventures in favor of a renewed Down Under focus.

A reader writes ...

I know that you are a big fan of a high-speed rail system to Vegas, and I do see the need to increase the traffic flow from SoCal to Vegas.

But I wonder if anyone has run the numbers to compare adding an additional highway lane or two (and even expanding any bridges) from the north edge of the LA area to Vegas? And how that figure compares to the cost of a high-speed rail.

Again, I'm not an opponent of rail lines (in fact, my wife comes from a long-line of train-employed relatives), but I wonder where the best "bang for the buck" would come from.

From some VERY basic numbers on the web, I'm getting estimates of about $1 million per mile per lane for highway building in the desert. Even with adding a lane in each direction, that's about $2 million per mile, or around $400 million for the approx. 200 miles from the north edge of metro LA to Vegas. Even if you more than double that figure for bridge expansions, etc., you still only end up with a cost of $1 billion. Compare that to the $8 billion in the stimulus package for high-speed rail (although I'm not sure how much of that $8 billion goes to the Vegas rail, or what the total cost of that project would be).

As you can tell, I am NO expert on this, but it might be interesting to hear from some experts (and who don't have a dog in the hunt).

You make good points, Kemosabe.

Comments (Comment Moderation is enabled. Your comment will not appear until approved.)
mike_ch's Gravatar A high-speed rail IS the best solution, though not necessarily one running on maglev. Though maglev can run very fast, it's expensive compared to a traditional bullet train. I've always considered the magnet obsession from the LA-Vegas project to be obsessive and excessive.

An extra lane would be cheaper to make right now but not be the right move in the long run.

I don't know what the current ridership projections are, but they were probably made up before gasoline costs jumped last summer, and gas is expected to increase long-term, which would cause a jump in ridership. When gas goes up, McCarran (your current option if you don't own a car or don't want to bring one) isn't going to be any cheaper, either.

An extra lane essentially means more cars in Vegas, which is already too auto-oriented as things are. Our streets are already crowded, and we're allegedly now an "emptier" city than Detroit. So what happens if things turn around and we become a full city? Rather than encourage tourists to bring their cars, why not encourage them to leave them so that the roadways are more efficient for the cars that are almost always here?

The ideal train would start out on a northern part of the city, either North Las Vegas, or waaay out in Centennial Hills, roll along at typical commuter rail speed to McCarran, and then bullet-train it to somewhere in LA with Metrolink and CHSR. How possible that is, I don't know, but then again I'm also used to just laughing out any story on Vegas-LA trains since they've been talked about for decades.
# Posted By mike_ch | 3/16/09 5:21 PM
David McKee's Gravatar Light rail was being talked up in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area when I moved there in '79. Twenty years later, I moved to Las Vegas and they were *still* debating light rail in the Twin Cities. (They now have one line, from the airport to downtown Minneapolis.)
# Posted By David McKee | 3/16/09 5:29 PM
Edward Murakami's Gravatar Hi-speed rail from LA to LV has been on the boiler now over twenty years including maglev technology. The cost vs. actual ridership never panned out in favor of the owner.
# Posted By Edward Murakami | 3/16/09 7:47 PM
Bob's Gravatar CA transportation just finished blasting the mountain to widen I-15 (which caused some 4 hour midday road closures on southbound I-15 every Wed for a few months) so I can't even imagine how much more they would have to blast to widen it out to 8-10 lanes in that area.

I think your average SoCal traveler is bigoted against buses, while a train (or a few hours at the airport) might be acceptable. Maglev may be the fastest train to go back and forth (major plus when traveling) but I wonder if it's as green as a slower rail line.
# Posted By Bob | 3/17/09 12:00 AM
Kerr Mudgeon's Gravatar <snip> How possible that is, I don't know, but then again I'm also used to just laughing out any story on Vegas-LA trains since they've been talked about for decades.
<snip> Twenty years later, I moved to Las Vegas and they were *still* debating light rail in the Twin Cities.
- The railroad from the East to California was also debated for decades. Finally it was accomplished with many federal tax dollars, although with a lot of corruption. The Obama administration intends to make sure corruption does not occur in its stimulus investments.
Funny how nobody seems to remember that the feds shoveled hundreds of $millions to airlines after 9/11 to keep them from failing while trying to kill Amtrak by drying up its already meager funding. And guess which alternate transportation system was over-booked by people anxious to "get out of town" while the airplanes were grounded, or who were scared to fly? Right: Amtrak.
I like trains. I don't like the airlines' ever-increasing hassle. I like going to Vegas. I want a CA-LV train again!
# Posted By Kerr Mudgeon | 3/17/09 1:41 AM
Mike_ch's Gravatar Well, yes, but the airlines, Chrysler in the 80s, etc were likely to actually PAY BACK the loan. Why Amtrak got no emergency funding after 911 may have something to do with being uninvilved, or even standing to gain from flight hysteria.

I'm with you, sort of, but even other railfans acknowledge that Amtrak is next to useless unless you live in the NE Corridor. California tried, with state funded routes like the Capitols, even they gave up and moved on to a bullet train.
# Posted By Mike_ch | 3/17/09 9:15 AM
Greg's Gravatar That $1 million per mile per lane estimate looks like it may be close to accurate. Here's a story from today's Arizona Republic about a widening project being bid out: 4 new lanes total for 6 miles at $22.5 million -- that's just under $1 million per mile per lane:
http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2009/03/16/...
# Posted By Greg | 3/17/09 3:02 PM
Kerr Mudgeon's Gravatar The Capitol is still running in California, according to the Amtrak.com website. Nevada chose to withhold funding for Amtrak routes, which killed the "Desert Wind" from SoCal to Salt Lake City. I miss that run...
At least Amtrak is still (sorta) alive. The Obstructicans in Congress tried to dry up ALL federal funding, leaving it to each state to pay for the trains running within its borders - or not.
I wonder how that plan would have worked out if applied to the interstate highway system.
# Posted By Kerr Mudgeon | 3/18/09 2:39 AM