Considering that Penn National CEO Peter Carlino would have paid far less for Treasure Island than the $775 million (bargain) price that Phil Ruffin ponied up, it's been looking like Hell might be hosting the Ice Capades before Carlino could secure a trophy property on the Strip at a dollar figure he deems affordable. Factor in the reported reluctance of both MGM Mirage and Harrah's Entertainment to part with Strip properties for less than 10X cash flow -- and maybe not even that -- and you figure Carlino and a first- or even second-tier Strip property are going to intersect sometime around the Twelfth of Never.

Carlino's criteria for buying into the Strip, as set forth in a March epistle, are exceptionally conditional: “We’re watching things very closely but will pounce only when the sun, moon and stars align. Penn National can wait as long as need be to make acquisitions that will be opportunistic and, more importantly, return-focused.” Run this month-old e-mail through the Wishful Thinking Machine at the Las Vegas Review-Journal and you get a headline like, "Penn National ready to 'pounce'."

But soft ... what light through yonder tabloid breaks? 'Tis the east and Peter Carlino is the sun. Arise, fair Carlino and buy The Mirage! Although Kirk Kerkorian, MGM Mirage and Penn National are doing their best impersonation of signifying monkeys, Post reporter Josh Kosman is onto a story that, if it pans out, will leave Strip observers gobsmacked. It would appear that Carlino has indeed found a means for bringing sun, moon and stars into alignment that gets a '10' for creativity.

In essence, banks holding some of the $7 billion in unsecured debt that comes due two years hence would make a 'credit bid' on The Mirage, trading debt for property. In turn, they'd hold it as collateral against an eventual repayment by Penn National, which would cross MGM's palm with a downpayment of unspecified size -- but probably small enough that Carlino could crow, "Victory is mine!"

(Interestingly, Penn is also reported by Bloomberg News to be sniffing around for a Detroit casino. It's not MGM Grand Detroit -- which may go wanting for prospective buyers, according to Kosman -- but bankrupt, red ink-ridden Greektown Casino. Given the hard bargains Carlino likes to drive, somebody's going to end up eating Michigan-sized debt if that deal should go through. No way Penn takes on the $777 million Greektown owes.)

It's a variant of an earlier ploy, rejected by MGM CEO James Murren, in which Boyd would have relieved MGM of some of its bonds in exchange for a Strip casino. “[Murren] fixated on the multiple we’d pay. I suspect that attitude may have some flexibility now," gloats Penn CFO William Clifford. Carlino says that Vegas holds "a dozen" casino-hotels that would fit the mid-market niche of Penn's customer base. He's openly ruled out Tropicana Las Vegas, so if a Mirage deal evaporates, what remaining resorts might comprise Carlino's Eleven?