It's sackcloth-and-ashes time at the Las Vegas Review-Journal, which ran another "The end is nigh" story about falling gambling revenues. (The Aliante Station Effect appears to have petered out in North Las Vegas.)

Yes, we're all the way down, down, down ... to 2004 levels. If we take the Wayback Machine five years into the past, we find the Nevada Gaming Control Board reporting a 6% increase in revenue from June 2003. And June '04 was an "off" month for a year that was distinguished by double-digit growth in casino revenue.

Aliante Station: played out?

That same August, the cost of the MGM Mirage takeover of Mandalay Resort Group inched past the $8 billion mark. "[B]ut Wall Street analysts ... said the merger still makes sense for investors and the combined company," wrote the R-J's Rod Smith. Weeks earlier, regulators signed off on the $1.3 billion Boyd Gaming/Coast Casinos merger; Station Casinos, Las Vegas Sands and MGM were all recording record-setting financial performances, and Harrah's Entertainment was girding itself for the conquest of Caesars Entertainment. Heck, the industry was feeling sufficiently bullish to absorb a 0.5% hike in the privilege tax. Read one headline, "State gaming revenue on a roll."

Had the industry lived within its means, today's narrative would be quite different. The Las Vegas Sun helpfully charts the inflation and collapse of the casino bubble, which lasted a good three years, peaking in October '07.

Unfortunately, when what went up eventually had to come down, some companies discovered themselves overexposed and with no margin for error. The likeliest victims, though, are the marginal, standalone properties which might find themselves squeezed out of existence as aggressive discounting by MGM and Harrah's brings quality Strip hotel rooms into the "affordable" realm (Or, as Phil Satre puts it, when the A-level product is priced below the B-level product.)

Valuable perspective is to be had by reading (or watching) this roundtable discussion with three men who dominated much of the gaming industry in the Nineties and early into the new century. Ex-Harrah's CEO Satre has earned the right to be a Monday morning QB. After all, he never did anything so stupid as strapping $30 billion in debt onto his company's back.

Former Station CFO Glenn Christenson seems deeply in denial at many points, though even he concedes, "It wasn’t so long ago that we hated conventions as an industry and now it’s critical to our operations. We’re severely damaged by that loss." But ex-Boyd prexy Don Snyder nails it when he describes "a false sense of security" pervading the industry, adding "I think we all got caught up in that."

2004, meet 2009, where "up" is the new "down."