Casino operators in Macao better make the most of the recent relaxation of visa quotas into the enclave. What the government gives with one hand, it partly reclaims with the other. Casino expansion remains out of the question and the minimum age for gambling would go up to 21, from 18, under a bill draft soon to be put forward. (Steve Wynn can afford to be sanguine, as it's far more likely to impact his mass-market-oriented competitors. Investors didn't share his enthusiasm.)

If Wynn -- who continues to toe the Peking party line -- comes out a winner, facing negligible "obstacables," Lawrence Ho is the presumptive loser. As best S&G can ascertain, the curtailment of gambling in residential areas is aimed at his Mocha slot routes, one of the younger Ho's bread-and-butter enterprises.

Another proposal awaiting action by the Macanese Lege would cap table-game inventory. Writes J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff, "we believe the Macau government believes the timing is right to implement these initiatives given the completion of the commission cap rule and the resumption of growth in the industry ... if the number of tables will be limited to 1,000 per operator, [Las Vegas Sands] may need to modify its future expansion plans, as it is already over the limit, while SJM will need to close down some of the older tables operated by the third parties, as it too is already over the limit."

None of this appears to bode especially well for Sands' long-in-coming IPO, although it remains to be seen whether this is a bonafide legislative agenda or simply a warning to inhibit growth. The news, however, managed to cast a pall over Sheldon Adelson's planned resumption of his Cotai Strip™. Also, it's not as though the Macanese government and its casino-owning subjects don't have to worry about an upsurge in gambling back on the Mainland.

Detroit, briefly. The depression continues to eat into Detroit's casino revenues, -2% last month. Despite a -6.5% drop, MGM Grand Detroit remains the big cat, grossing $42 million. Second place is up for grabs, though, as MotorCity continues to fall back (-7%) toward upstart Greektown (+12%), which is closing the gap, grossing $28.5 million against $33.5 million for MotorCity.

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At least 28,000 have done so over the two years-plus (probably more when you allow for the people still moving here). What are the likely consequences of Las Vegas' pegging its future on a one-trick economy? And is it going to be like one of those Rust Belt cities (like Pittsburgh) that turned it around or one of those (say, Detroit) that continues to decline?

Those questions and others are posed in a splendid article that connects most of the dots regarding Vegas' economic plight. One of the most disturbing points raised by Las Vegas Sun reporter J. Patrick Coolican is that cities doing well at present tend to be ones that possessed robust institutions of higher learning -- and invested in them. Neither can be said of Nevada's dismal education system, the recipient of savage budgets, thanks to our governor and the ever-feckless Lege.

If Las Vegas' future hinges on well-funded and -respected academic institutions, then the near-term prognosis is grim.

Speaking of Detroit, casino owners and politicians there may be casting a wary eye on rising pro-casino sentiment in Ohio. In whichever form casino gambling is legalized by Buckeye State voters, it stands to take a big bite out of Motown casino receipts -- and sap state and local revenue collection, too. A helpful Detroit News map shows precisely which Detroit, Indiana, Pennsylvania and West Virginia casino operators have reason to be fretful about the emergence of a casino industry next door.

Like their Strip brethren, tribal powerhouses Mohegan Sun and Foxwoods Resort Casino went all-in ... into debt, that is. Now that it's time to pay the piper,  they find themselves in binds comparable to those facing non-tribal casinos. However, they have fewer options for relief, as they discover the downside of being a tribal operation.

Dog's breakfast at Tiffany's. Few readers of this column can probably afford to buy anything at the Tiffany mega-boutique that will be part of the Crystals mall at CityCenter. However, it will make for some lovely window-shopping. (Click on the pictures to see them in a larger size.)

Atlantic City reprieve. Although New Jersey's three-way gubernatorial race is up for grabs, casino owners can take one consolation. Whichever of the two leading candidates is elected, continued opposition to racinos is promised.

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New Yorker economic columnist James Surowiecki puts current consumer-spending strends in perspective -- and what he finds should gladden the hearts of casino owners. Basically, he finds historical evidence the current tendency toward thriftiness will soon pass. Of course, when Americans' savings rate (now 6%) dipped below 0%, that should have been a canary-in-the-coal-mine moment for heedlessly expansionist gaming moguls. But they'd probably laid off the canary in order to "maximize shareholder value."

If wishing made it so ...

... Chicago would have had a casino a long time ago. Some city parents think they've found the perfect site, but it's still a long shot. Just keep it out of the Loop, OK? Seriously, downtown Chicago is looking livelier than it has in a while and doesn't need a big-ass casino plunked in its midst. The likelihood that it would be Windy City version of, say, a classy anomaly like MGM Grand Detroit is pretty remote.

So much for speculation that Australian casino magnate James Packer would get into the running for Fontainebleau. Seems that Packer is buying up Crown Ltd. stock instead. (Indeed, why would Packer write off his F'bleau investment, then double down on the failing development?) Packer has raised at least $772 million by disposing of non-gaming assets and appears on course to make a takeover bid for Crown, of which he owns 40% at present.

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Pardon a smallish digression from the world of games to something truly important ... baseball. With painful memories of the '04 and '05 postseason meltdowns acid-etched into my mind, I've not been able to summon the intestinal fortitude to watch either of the first two Red Sox/Angels games. (And postseason Angels games really take a toll on one's stomach.)

Now, with the Halos up 2-0, I'm wondering if it's safe to peek between my fingers as the series repairs to Fenway Park. My gut-twisting gut-level feeling is that this series goes the full five games, which is my recipe for pure torture. But ... Angels pitchers seemed to have conquered their fear of BoSox hitters and shut them down.

Besides, I've been wrong before about this team -- 1,000% wrong about Bobby Abreu, who's been a tremendous influence for the better. His superb plate discipline has been worlds away from the bizarre flailing of Vladimir Guerrero (which you can only get away with if you're Vlad and can lift a far-outside pitch over the fence in straightaway center). Patient at-bats were the key to the Angels' '02 World Series run, which made up for less-than-dominant starting pitching. If there's an Angels/Yankees ALCS, it'll be a contest to see who can take more pitches: a real tortoise-and-hare match.

At least the Angels and BoSox share a common adversary: the umpires. "Country" Joe West and C.B. Bucknor are showing yet again why they are two of the worst in MLB ... although seemingly every American League playoff game this year (including the Metrodome miniseries that finished the Detroit Tigers) has been plagued by truly craptacular umpiring and amazingly poor calls. If this were the NFL, these clowns would be relegated to working late-season Rams/Raiders games or some purgatorial equivalent.

Speaking of the Yanks, I can't hold out much hope for my old home team, the Minnesota Twins. All the Homer Hankies in the world aren't going to do it for a pitching staff that can't hold a lead against the Bronx Bombers, and it pains me to type that.

Thanks for your indulgence. We now return to our irregularly scheduled blogging. As soon as I find my Rally Monkeys, that is.

P.S.: It's a damnable shame that our server won't load previously unused images into the blogs. 'Cuz I've got a great Philly Phanatic photo that would be perfect should they make it to the Fall Classic.

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... says the Motley Fool, in essence. Even Borgata, which posted a higher operating profit year/year, is deemed merely to suck less than everybody else. I'm not sure I'm with the Fools on this one. For instance, shouldn't Sands Bethlehem be doing better than fifth among Pennsylvania casinos, especially when you consider its proximity to New York City?

Elsewhere on the Boardwalk, the UAW is fighting Trump Plaza, the Plaza is fighting the National Labor Relations Board and Trump dealers are fighting amongst themselves. Since 32% of dealers initially voted against UAW representation, it should be a cinch to round up 30% to sign a decertification petition. Kudos to Trump Entertainment Resorts CEO Mark Juliano for going out of his way to soothe potential animosity between labor and management.

MILF convention in A.C.: On Oct. 3, former Bunnies and other veterans of the short-lived Playboy Hotel & Casino will return to the shore to relive the good old days. A few might even wriggle into their old Bunny costumes. Maybe a re-infusion of the Playboy brand is what Atlantic City needs. It can only help. Are you listening, Carl Icahn? Revel? Pinnacle Entertainment? Anybody?

Finally, a reason to visit Orlando ...

... or maybe not. And that dude from Scotland is in serious need of subtitles.

Resort-style casinos come to Colorado and doesn't Ameristar's new hotel look lovely? Now, if only somebody would build a mid-market property like this on the Strip. Why must average Americans settle for older, second-tier properties if they're to afford a Vegas vacation?

Health care reform + Internet gambling? Is it just me or is Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) onto something here? This may be just the carrot to dangle in front of legislators who still balk at allowing Americans to wager on the Web.

Creditors screwed again. How much is Greektown Casino worth? Is it the $725 million its creditors claim? Or the $540 million that Greektown asserts? Or maybe the lowball $485 million that lead bidder Tom Celani is willing to pay? Greektown's recent -- and well-publicized -- inroads into the market share of its Detroit rivals lend merit to the higher-end valuations. If the place was in the doghouse, I might sympathize with Celani (who's likely to boot the very management team responsible for Greektown's turnaround), but Fine Point Group has definitely enhanced a once-seedy casino's value.

It's official. VIP-player commissions in Macao will be capped. Since the war over junketeer commissions was threatening to make Macao a negative-revenue proposition, the new ceiling will greatly improve cash flow for Macanese operators. Middle-of-the-pack Galaxy Entertainment is expected to benefit the most (+27% EBITDA), followed at some distance by Stanley Ho (16%), with Las Vegas Sands and MGM Mirage bringing up the rear. Although the elderly Ho may be on his deathbed, he's lived long enough to broker peace in a potentially destructive situation where the only sure winners were the sought-after junket operators.

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So the much-bruited suitor for stalled, bankrupt Fontainebleau has been "outed" and it's ... Penn National Gaming. Ace reporter Alexandra Berzon, late of the Las Vegas Sun, broke the story. However, she notes that Penn and F'bleau have been dickering for three months: "Talks could still fall apart at any moment."

Given the criteria that Penn CEO Peter Carlino has been citing for any major casino purchase, F'bleau is an illogical choice. It's expensive, it's unfinished, it's location-challenged, it's a high-end property in a depressed market, it has a problematic condo component (read: units that will never sell) and, most of all, it's a snakepit of litigation. Plus, the cost of completion seems to escalate by the hour and is currently pegged at $1.5 billion.

Remember, Penn balked at paying $1 billion-plus for The Mirage, a turnkey, trouble-free resort. Meanwhile, Harrah's Entertainment is snatching Planet Hollywood right out from under Penn's nose and the company whiffed on a chance to acquire newly ascendant Greektown Casino in Detroit. Go figure.

A Penn spokesman "could not confirm or deny" the Wall Street Journal story. We'll take that as a "yes."

Aubrey has landed. As in "O'Day." Webmistress Jessica has forwarded the following from Holly Madison's Twitter feed: "@hollymadison123 Damn! I can't take one day off work without everything going to hell in a handbasket! Back to spreading the positive energy!" Like I said, word from the wise is that Madison and new Hitler-lovin' co-star Aubrey O'Day are anything other than BFFs.

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This is the sort of bottom-feeding move you'd expect from Columbia Sussex but not from Hyatt. Suffice it to say that if casino-hotels try this cheapjack number in Atlantic City, Detroit or Las Vegas, there will be holy hell to pay, especially the next time the collective-bargaining agreement is up for renewal. As it is, some hotels (*cough*Tropicana Las Vegas*cough*) have tried to operate with skeletal cleaning staffs and one shudders to imagine the consequences.

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Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) finally has achieved distinction within the Senate -- albeit in a manner of which he's surely never dreamt. Citizens for Ethics & Responsibility in Government* has named Johnny Casino to its Most Corrupt Members of Congress list. It's an elite club in which he'll find six fellow Republicans and eight Democrats.

This calls for an awards-acceptance speech and, like so many before him, Sen. Ensign couldn't have done it without Dad. CREW's citation reprises the role played by recent Kansas casino aspirant Mike Ensign, who once upon a time ruled Mandalay Resort Group: "Sen. Ensign’s parents paid Ms. Hampton and her family $96,000 after they had learned of the affair. Mr. Coggins [the senator's attorney] insisted the payments were not made from campaign or official funds, nor were they related to any campaign or official duties. Rather, he explained, the April 2008 payments were 'gifts made out of concern for the well-being of long-time family friends during a difficult time.' Each of Sen. Ensign’s parents made out four checks in the amount of $12,000 to Cynthia Hampton, her husband and two of their children. [emphasis added] Sen. Ensign’s office claimed the alleged $25,000 severance payment was part of his parents’ $96,000 'gift.'"

So, in case your son doesn't show appropriate gratitude, let me say, thank you, thank you, thank you Mike Ensign for smearing feces all over the casino industry's image at the precise moment that new (and very conservative) jurisdictions are opening to it. And if you're MGM Mirage CEO Jim Murren, you might want to have your accountants vet the old Mandalay corporate books, just to be doubly sure there weren't any "patterns of generosity" back around 2002, when Sen. Ensign is widely believed to have had a prior affair. (The identity of his alleged mistress is no secret around Vegas, by the way.)

For all the senior Ensign's labors in the gaming industry, he's likelier to go into the history books as the bagman and enabler for his son's sexcapades.

Sen. John Ensign believes out-of-wedlock births should be "somewhat stigmatized." But out-of-wedlock sex? His position on that is more "nuanced," shall we say.

(* Yeah, yeah, I know: Ethics + responsibility + guvmint often seems oxymoronic, especially in Nevada, but we're working on it. And the senatorial Twitter feed actually springs from the satirically fecund mind of Andrew Kiraly.)

Speaking of Mike Ensign, what the heck was Kansas Lottery Executive Director Ed Van Petten doing playing the role of media-shy Ensign's personal spokesman? In a literally incredible statement, as paraphrased by The Associated Press, Van Petten said of Ensign and ex-Mandalay sidekick Peter Simon: "they didn't like the fact that the Lottery owns the new gambling under Kansas law — or the 27 percent share of revenues reserved for state and local governments."

Bullshit. Casino ownership by the Lottery has been part of the deal from Day One. As for the tax-rate malarkey, Mandalay Resort Group co-owned the Grand Victoria riverboat in Illinois, which -- in 2003 -- became eligible for a top-tier tax rate of 70%. In Detroit -- again on Ensign's watch -- MotorCity's tax rate went to 24%. In neither instance did Mandalay stalk out of town in a state of high dudgeon.

So the notion of Ensign Sr. falling into a gentlemanly swoon at the prospect of a 27% rate just doesn't wash. Either he and Simon knew this going in and are now prevaricating -- via messenger boy Van Petten -- or they're doofuses who failed to perform due diligence on the Kansas market. Which reputation would they prefer?

The truly inexcusable Van Petten further went on to apologize for his own state's oversight apparatus, saying, "Basically, [Simon and Ensign] just didn't like the regulatory makeup." Well too bad for them. It comes with the territory. What Van Petten should be saying is that if a couple of unemployed ex-Strip casino executives don't like the way Kansas does business, they never ought to have set their Gucci loafers in the Sunflower State to begin with. Or, in the immortal words of Law & Order's Jack McCoy:

"If you're gonna play stickball in Canarsie, learn Brooklyn rules."

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Dipping into the dispatch box, S&G finds the following tidbits, courtesy of the nice people at J.P. Morgan:

Alex Yemenidjian is serious about revamping the Tropicana Las Vegas. He's just inked a contract with Bally Technologies for a player-tracking system and other BYI goodies ...

... fading interest in MGM Grand Detroit has caused MGM Mirage to take it off the market. Also, with the company looking at price concessions to its CityCenter condo buyers (i.e., forfeiting money it was counting on to finance CityCenter), it may need to borrow against its Detroit palace, one of the few MGM properties still unencumbered ...

... Atlantic City, like Macao, is and will probably always be essentially a daytripper market. So there's symmetry in the fact that China State Construction Engineering Corp. has been signed to finish the stalled Revel project on the Boardwalk, to the tune of $1.7 billion. A July 11 opening is predicted. This is the best news to emerge from Atlantic City in quite a long while.

Speaking of good news, gaming revenues for Nevada's July are in and, basically, they don't suck. Yes, the Silver State was down 8% and the Strip was 11%. But June's year/year comparisons were far suckier (-15% on the Strip), so there's some consolation to be had. In fact, compared to a series of truly craptacular year/year comparisons -- all in double digits, except for last May -- it's darn near cause for celebration.

Table game drop was down overall but the casinos played lucky, particularly at baccarat. (Watch the first-season Mission Impossible episode "Odds on Evil," if you need a quick primer on this game. You'll get scintillating performances by Martin Landau and Barbara Bain in the bargain.)

Slot play is way down (-17.5% win on -15% handle) and North Las Vegas, bouyed by Aliante Station, was the only part of Clark County to have a positive month. Laughlin got hammered pretty badly (-19%) and neither Reno (-21%) nor South Lake Tahoe (-33%) seems likely to ever fully recover from tribal competition across the border, Tahoe especially. If there was a moment for some "unbundling" by overexposed companies, this is it.

Didn't get the memo. Would somebody break into the R&R Partners biosphere and let oxygen into the office of Billy Vassiliadis? "Billy V" was the author of this boneheaded pensée, which he shared with the Los Angeles Times:

"You've got to drop your rates, but you don't want to create a sense that this is a discount experience or that the experience itself has been diminished."

What the ... ? Las Vegas' recent success was built on the perception (and actuality) of a "discount experience," and lower prices are unlikely to "diminish" a tourist destination that is now synonymous with exclusivity and unaffordability. Vassiliadis, like Sheldon Adelson and the Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority, seems convinced that the current doldrums are -- to use my favorite Internet-board gaffe -- "a blimp [sic] on the radar."

They need to wrap their heads around the reality that 2004-like levels of business were damned good at the time (superb, in fact) and that Vegas needs to get back to the value-based messages that fueled the preceding 15 years of growth. Or, as David G. Schwartz writes in a particularly trenchant DieIsCast.com entry: "Of course, unpredictable events can make a hash of any predictions, so it’s possible that five years from now the casino industry will be employing 100,000 more people than it does today. That would be after the federal government offers Americans a $10,000 annual tax credit against travel to Las Vegas, and Las Vegas alone."

Seems like some folks in the marketing bidness should be taking Dr. Schwartz's classes.

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Continuing a trend of lower-than-projected returns across the Midwest, Iowa's riverboats were flat last month and racinos saw a 5% decline. All major operators lost ground but something is very wrong at Ameristar Casinos, whose Council Bluffs boat was way outside the margin, reporting a 15% decline from last year.

Over in Detroit, in the hardest-hit state in America, general economic collapse is finally eating into the casino bidness. With MGM Grand Detroit off 10% and Motor City down 3%, it took a 24% upward leap in revenues at recently expanded Greektown Casino (above) to keep the market on an even keel. With an 0.4% overall decline in dollars won, Detroit stays within the "flat" classification.

Good time to own IGT. Sitting upon Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn's desk is a bill that could swamp the state with as many as 77,000 video slot machines. As J.P. Morgan breaks down the particulars: "video gaming terminals may be placed in 1) licensed establishments (“any licensed retail establishment where alcoholic liquor is drawn, poured, mixed, or otherwise served for consumption on the premises”), 2) licensed truck stop establishments (“facility that is at least a 3-acre facility with a convenience store and with separate diesel islands and parking spaces for commercial motor vehicles”), 3) licensed fraternal establishments (“location where a qualified fraternal organization regularly meets”), and 4) licensed veterans establishments (“location where a qualified veterans organization regularly meets”)."

Morgan analysts take a less-alarmist position on this change, projecting that no more than 40,000 devices will be installed, over a two-year period starting next year. Still, they like the prospects of International Game Technology, which is predicted to snare 60% of the market, with another 30% equally divided between WMS Industries and Bally Technologies -- a bit of a snub to favorite son WMS, no?

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