David Mckee's Stiffs & Georges - Iowa

Case Bets: Corzine, Penn vs. MTR, Pinnacle, Manilow & strippers

Wed, 07 Oct 2009 15:06:00 -0700

Forbidden by New Jersey law from directly contributing to political campaigns, casino companies are making an end run through Virginia. Harrah's Entertainment, Boyd Gaming and IGT are among those funneling campaign cash into a reverse version on the Underground Railroad. No wonder Gov. Jon Corzine (D) is able to carpet-bomb his opponents with advertising, if he so chooses.

Hey, big spender. The New Jersey gubernatorial race may be chump change compared to the cash being expended in the battle over Issue 3, which would permit four Vegas-style casinos in the Buckeye State. This is boiling down to a proxy fight between Penn National Gaming (pro) and racino specialist MTR Gaming (con). You'll recall that the Ohio Supreme Court nixed Gov. Ted Strickland's plan to unilaterally add slots to the state's horse tracks, which might have given MTR a level playing field with Penn.

While I can understand why Penn or Harrah's would be willing to pay 23% in taxes in Iowa or 27% in Kansas, it's mind-boggling that Harrah's would be chomping at the bit in Rhode Island, where the rate is 73%. Oy vey!

A green shoot. The Baton Rouge Business Journal reports that Pinnacle Entertainment is inking contracts to begin driving piles for its Lake Charles project. Called "Sugarcane Bay" and budgeted at $407 million, this is the first positive movement we've seen out of Pinnacle in a while (unless you count its hijinks with the President license up in Missouri). Good on them.

Manilow on the move. The Las Vegas Hilton has confirmed what all suspected: Barry Manilow's contract expires Dec. 30 and will not be renewed. As we reported in Question of the Day, it's nearly a done deal that he will now set up shop at Paris-Las Vegas, whose main showroom has gone long unused.

Good luck trying to get the Vegas constabulary interested if your car is stolen or your home burglarized. They're too busy going undercover to get lap dances. As Richard Abowitz notes, rampant prostitution on the Strip goes unchecked in the meantime. It's an open secret around here, although many of the "working girls" look downright scary, so you have to wonder how they turn tricks, especially in this economy.

Gambling scandal ensares eight more

Mon, 21 Sep 2009 18:32:00 -0700

It's not quite on the global scale of the Ultimate Bet brouhaha, but the Tran Organization's conspiracy to fleece dozens of U.S., Canadian and tribal casinos is racking up an amazing head count. To date, federal prosecutors have already nailed 31 scalps to their wall, not counting three other individuals to who pled out to related charges (including one in Canada).

If you thought this was the end of the Tran Organization ... surprise! The feds unsealed another set of indictments this month. Eight more individuals were hit with various counts of "conspiracy to steal money and other property from Indian tribal casinos, and conspiracy to travel in interstate and foreign commerce in aid of racketeering."

At the core of the Tran Organization's scam was the execution of "false shuffles," whereby "slugs" of unshuffled cards were insinuated into blackjack and mini-baccarat decks. This required the cooperation of corrupt casino employees and, from the looks of the Department of Justice's announcement, the core Tran Organization members must be rolling on their casino-employed helpers.

The Tran gang managed to take no fewer than 26 casinos during the life of its scheme, which is a very black mark against the industry's standard of game protection. The dishonor roll is as follows:

1) Beau Rivage Casino, Biloxi, Miss.
2) Casino Rama, Orillia, Ontario, Canada
3) Foxwoods Resort Casino, Ledyard, Conn.
4) Gold Strike Casino, Tunica, Miss.
5) Horseshoe Casino, Bossier City, La.
6) Horseshoe Casino & Hotel, Tunica, Miss.
7) Isle of Capri Casino, Westlake, La.
8) Majestic Star Casino, Gary, Ind.
9) Mohegan Sun Resort Casino, Uncasville, Conn.
10) Palace Station Casino, Las Vegas, Nev.
11) Resorts East Chicago Hotel & Casino, East Chicago, Ind.
12) Sycuan Casino, El Cajon, Calif.
13) Cache Creek Indian Bingo & Casino, Brooks, Calif.
14) Emerald Queen Casino, Tacoma, Wash.
15) Imperial Palace Casino, Biloxi, Miss.
16) Argosy Casino, Baton Rouge, La.
17) Trump 29 Casino, Coachella, Calif.
18) Isle of Capri Casino, Bossier City, La.
19) Agua Caliente Casino, Rancho Mirage, Calif.
20) Spa Resort Casino, Palm Springs, Calif.
21) Pechanga Resort & Casino, Temecula, Calif.
22) L'Auberge du Lac Casino, Lake Charles, La.
23) Nooksack River Casino, Deming, Wash.
24) Barona Valley Ranch Casino & Resort, Lakeside, Calif.
25) Caesars Indiana Hotel & Casino, Elizabeth, Ind.
26) Monte Carlo Resort & Casino, Las Vegas, Nev.

Illinois does it again; Storm over CityCenter

Thu, 20 Aug 2009 15:07:00 -0700

A new law in Illinois that legalizes video poker statewide may have some unforeseen consequences. Namely, video gambling at truck stops throughout the Land of Lincoln. This represents a much bigger expansion than was originally sold to the public. Whenever you think Illinois' casino industry has finally hit bottom and might begin to recover from previous legislative sabotage, it gets pushed off yet another cliff. New casinos licenses may soon be available in Missouri (1) and Iowa (4-5). Riverboat operators in Illinois should seriously consider hoisting anchor and moving across the river.

CityCenter suit. This one alleges basically that MGM Mirage pumped and dumped its stock, and misrepresented its chances of funding CityCenter. The allegations may prove more entertaining than true but they will certainly make lively reading.

Wait Until Dark. If you prefer an evening at the theater to curling up with a lawsuit, you can't go wrong with CSN's presentation of Frederick Knott's 1966 thriller.

More Midwest notes

Tue, 14 Jul 2009 10:46:00 -0700

Continuing a trend of lower-than-projected returns across the Midwest, Iowa's riverboats were flat last month and racinos saw a 5% decline. All major operators lost ground but something is very wrong at Ameristar Casinos, whose Council Bluffs boat was way outside the margin, reporting a 15% decline from last year.

Over in Detroit, in the hardest-hit state in America, general economic collapse is finally eating into the casino bidness. With MGM Grand Detroit off 10% and Motor City down 3%, it took a 24% upward leap in revenues at recently expanded Greektown Casino (above) to keep the market on an even keel. With an 0.4% overall decline in dollars won, Detroit stays within the "flat" classification.

Good time to own IGT. Sitting upon Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn's desk is a bill that could swamp the state with as many as 77,000 video slot machines. As J.P. Morgan breaks down the particulars: "video gaming terminals may be placed in 1) licensed establishments (“any licensed retail establishment where alcoholic liquor is drawn, poured, mixed, or otherwise served for consumption on the premises”), 2) licensed truck stop establishments (“facility that is at least a 3-acre facility with a convenience store and with separate diesel islands and parking spaces for commercial motor vehicles”), 3) licensed fraternal establishments (“location where a qualified fraternal organization regularly meets”), and 4) licensed veterans establishments (“location where a qualified veterans organization regularly meets”)."

Morgan analysts take a less-alarmist position on this change, projecting that no more than 40,000 devices will be installed, over a two-year period starting next year. Still, they like the prospects of International Game Technology, which is predicted to snare 60% of the market, with another 30% equally divided between WMS Industries and Bally Technologies -- a bit of a snub to favorite son WMS, no?

Case Bets: Packer & Ho, Sands Bethlehem, MGM Mirage, Ameristar, Penn, Harrah's, etc.

Wed, 03 Jun 2009 14:40:00 -0700

• Smashing guitars -- but not over each other's noggins -- James Packer and Lawrence Ho christened City of Dreams. The younger Ho downplayed expectations of foot traffic, saying his $2.4 billion megaresort could get by on far fewer visitors than the nearby (and comparably expensive) Venetian Macao, which draws 70K visitors daily.

• After a record-setting opening, Sands Bethlehem fell into fourth place during last week's casino action in Pennsylvania. Not surprisingly, Philadelphia Park and Harrah's Chester led the state.

• Beau Rivage is safe. Although MGM Mirage was peddling several of its regional casinos, J.P. Morgan reports that "we have heard from some bidders that this process is close to dead, so we don’t expect to hear asset sales chatter in the near to medium term."

• While yours truly was critical of staffing cuts at Ameristar Casinos, they appear to be paying off. The company projects flat revenue comparisons in 2009 but better cash-flow margins, pegging the savings as $40 million-$48 million, annualized.

• When in doubt, Penn National Gaming falls back on what it knows: racinos. It's angling for the Laurel Park concession left on the table when Magna Entertainment collapsed. Both Penn and rival David Cordish appear to be trying to chisel a loophole into Maryland's slot-parlor law, which limits companies to one slot house apiece. Penn is already committed to Cecil County but wants Laurel Park ... as does Cordish, who has a pre-standing commitment to the Arundel Mills area. The latter project has run into serious opposition. Expect a nip-and-tuck fight for Laurel Park.

• Penn is evidently getting cold feet in Ohio, however.

• Casino expansion in Iowa will have to wait until 2010, at the earliest. This delay is a disguised blessing. The Hawkeye State market has been holding its own during the recession but the timing for diluting the market with four new casinos could scarcely be worse.

• If wishes were horses, Harrah's Entertainment would be galloping along the shores of the Yangtze River this very minute. Seriously, would you lend Harrah's more money? Would you give an alcoholic the keys to your wine cellar? Well, you might get the empties back so you could redeem the deposit on the bottle.

Iowa lawmakers wring hands

Wed, 25 Mar 2009 11:18:00 -0700

As Andy Warhol once observed, sometimes the best satire of something is the thing itself. With that in mind, I present to you the erstwhile solons of Iowa, as they observe the 20th anniversary of legalized gambling in the Hawkeye State.

Rather than celebrate two decades of a robust casino industry in the state, onetime supporters now wail that they "couldn't imagine" it would evolve into a Vegas Lite product. Apparently they didn't think neighboring states would follow Iowa's lead, either. Does this mean aforesaid lawmakers are pinning the blame for such naive expectations where it belongs -- on themselves? Nosiree, Bob! These are politicians, after all.

Seriously, they expected a "Disney experience" ... in a casino. Sniffles one former legislator, "It's morphed into something larger than I ever expected. We started a wildfire across the country." Oh, the humanity!

As one of my favorite academics, Whittier Law School's I. Nelson Rose, points out: "Legislators in other states said, 'Iowa is not exactly the center of hedonism of this country, and if it's good enough for Iowa, then it's good enough for us.'"

And so it is.

Going down in Illinois

Tue, 10 Feb 2009 17:56:00 -0700

When it comes to Upper Midwest casinos, there's Illinois and then there's Everyone Else. Except that, in this case, you want to be "Everyone Else." Being Illinois sucks.

January numbers for Missouri aren't out yet but Iowa is up 3%, Indiana is seeing a 12% surge ... and Illinois is -9%. That's on top of the -18% hammering the Land of Lincoln took a year ago, when smoking in casinos became a no-no. Whatever impact the recession is having on neighboring states' casinos, refugee players from Illinois riverboats are more than compensating.

The news isn't quite as good as it could be for Indiana, where the gain is more than offset on a same-store basis by the dilutive effect of two new-ish racinos and Harrah's Entertainment's Horseshoe Hammond behemoth. These ill-timed (for their competitors, that is) expansions have left everybody else slicing the ham thinner, in Fred Harvey's dying words. (The restaurant mogul's last utterance was alleged to be, "Slice the ham thinner." And, no, he wasn't an F&B executive at Station Casinos.)

Some salient Indiana facts ...

• Expansion of Horseshoe Hammond is not only a positive (+16%) in itself, it's more than making up for softening at Horseshoe Southern Indiana (-3%). Was taking the Caesars brand off the latter a good idea? Just asking.

• French Lick is licked (-14%). Somebody has to be in last place and Indiana's only land-based casino is "It."

• Ameristar East Chicago is feeling the Hammond Effect (-4%) but surpasssed analyst expectations nonetheless.

• Grand Victoria is in freefall -- eight straight months of double-digit declines, including last month's -26%. Will it hit bottom before it passes French Lick on the way down? Speaking of the bottom ...

• Congratulations to Boyd Gaming's Blue Chip (-2%), which is finally pulling out of a protracted skid. If Boyd can live with 65-70% of Blue Chip's pre-2008 performance, the future -- thanks to a newly augmented casino-hotel -- inspires hope.

• Majestic Star II needs to be moved (an idea that's getting kicked around by various governmental bodies). While its sister ship is hanging in moderately well, Majestic II's year/year comparisons are almost as dreadful as Grand Victoria's.

• The turnaround of Casino Aztar (off but three-tenths of a point) remains 2008's #1 success story in the industry.

Racinos were less of a factor in Iowa, were they were flat while riverboats nudged their revenue up 4%. The three tracks, though, do generate roughly a third of the state's casino revenue, while 14 riverboats divvy up the rest, not counting tribal casinos (which don't report revenue).

• Harrah's Council Bluffs (+4%) stole market share from Ameristar's rival facility (-6%), but the latter still does nearly double the business ($13.4 million to $7.7 million).

• Positive comparisons at two of Isle of Capri's four Iowa casinos were more than offset by declines at the other two, for an aggregate of -2%.

• Two smallish riverboats, Diamond Jo and Mississippi Belle, enjoyed spectacular improvements in January, +104% and +51%, respectively.

All generalizations about Illinois are false in the sense that there are exceptions that prove the rule. For instance, while the smoking ban has quantifiably been death for Illinois casinos, the first one to open as a non-smoking casino -- Casino Rock Island's new facility -- has been up 118% and 112% in the last two months. Is there something about not being able to smoke in a casino that still smells of cigarettes that's worse for business than not being able to smoke in a nice, fresh facility?

Another paradox is that the casino one would think most likely to feel the brunt of St. Louis-area competition, East St. Louis-berthed Casino Queen, was the last to experience the downturn that was sweeping the rest of Illinois and is now almost back (-3%) to year-ago figures, which themselves were only -2% from January '07.

With Boyd's Par-A-Dice (-5%), Harrah's Metropolis (-9%) and Penn National's Hollywood Aurora (-7%) decelerating from last year's precipitous declivity -- when they were -10%, -19% and -16%, respectively -- one would like to believe that the bottom is near for Illinois, but the Penn boat is the only bright spot in Chicagoland and the same company's Alton Belle (-15%) is still taking it on the chin from Missouri.

Isle reports

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 17:50:00 -0700

Not a lot new here, so I'll try to be brief. Losses are down and cash flow is up, particularly impressive in a quarter in which Mississippi River flooding forced the temporary closure of two casinos. An Oregon expansion was written off, and capital is being concentrated on the improvement of core assets in Mississippi.

Florida, England and the Bahamas look like a total bust, while the Iowa riverboats are getting surprisingly modest "bounce" from the Illinois smoking ban. (Note the big improvement at the re-branded Lady Luck Caruthersville, however, formerly a Casino Aztar boat.) Analysts seem happy with the numbers, which never hurts. It's going to take a while to get this boat turned around, but it's definitely moving in the right direction.

Just skimming the overall Iowa numbers for August, I see that Harrah's Entertainment lost market share, while Penn National, Ameristar and Isle of Capri all grew. An extra weekend day helped the state to a 5% gain over August '07. Judging by the stories that disenchanted Diamond and Seven Stars players share with me, it doesn't come as a shock to see Harrah's losing business to its competitors.