David Mckee's Stiffs & Georges - Ameristar

Atlantic City sucks ...

Tue, 22 Sep 2009 18:05:00 -0700

... says the Motley Fool, in essence. Even Borgata, which posted a higher operating profit year/year, is deemed merely to suck less than everybody else. I'm not sure I'm with the Fools on this one. For instance, shouldn't Sands Bethlehem be doing better than fifth among Pennsylvania casinos, especially when you consider its proximity to New York City?

Elsewhere on the Boardwalk, the UAW is fighting Trump Plaza, the Plaza is fighting the National Labor Relations Board and Trump dealers are fighting amongst themselves. Since 32% of dealers initially voted against UAW representation, it should be a cinch to round up 30% to sign a decertification petition. Kudos to Trump Entertainment Resorts CEO Mark Juliano for going out of his way to soothe potential animosity between labor and management.

MILF convention in A.C.: On Oct. 3, former Bunnies and other veterans of the short-lived Playboy Hotel & Casino will return to the shore to relive the good old days. A few might even wriggle into their old Bunny costumes. Maybe a re-infusion of the Playboy brand is what Atlantic City needs. It can only help. Are you listening, Carl Icahn? Revel? Pinnacle Entertainment? Anybody?

Finally, a reason to visit Orlando ...

... or maybe not. And that dude from Scotland is in serious need of subtitles.

Resort-style casinos come to Colorado and doesn't Ameristar's new hotel look lovely? Now, if only somebody would build a mid-market property like this on the Strip. Why must average Americans settle for older, second-tier properties if they're to afford a Vegas vacation?

Health care reform + Internet gambling? Is it just me or is Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) onto something here? This may be just the carrot to dangle in front of legislators who still balk at allowing Americans to wager on the Web.

Creditors screwed again. How much is Greektown Casino worth? Is it the $725 million its creditors claim? Or the $540 million that Greektown asserts? Or maybe the lowball $485 million that lead bidder Tom Celani is willing to pay? Greektown's recent -- and well-publicized -- inroads into the market share of its Detroit rivals lend merit to the higher-end valuations. If the place was in the doghouse, I might sympathize with Celani (who's likely to boot the very management team responsible for Greektown's turnaround), but Fine Point Group has definitely enhanced a once-seedy casino's value.

It's official. VIP-player commissions in Macao will be capped. Since the war over junketeer commissions was threatening to make Macao a negative-revenue proposition, the new ceiling will greatly improve cash flow for Macanese operators. Middle-of-the-pack Galaxy Entertainment is expected to benefit the most (+27% EBITDA), followed at some distance by Stanley Ho (16%), with Las Vegas Sands and MGM Mirage bringing up the rear. Although the elderly Ho may be on his deathbed, he's lived long enough to broker peace in a potentially destructive situation where the only sure winners were the sought-after junket operators.

Gambling scandal ensares eight more

Mon, 21 Sep 2009 18:32:00 -0700

It's not quite on the global scale of the Ultimate Bet brouhaha, but the Tran Organization's conspiracy to fleece dozens of U.S., Canadian and tribal casinos is racking up an amazing head count. To date, federal prosecutors have already nailed 31 scalps to their wall, not counting three other individuals to who pled out to related charges (including one in Canada).

If you thought this was the end of the Tran Organization ... surprise! The feds unsealed another set of indictments this month. Eight more individuals were hit with various counts of "conspiracy to steal money and other property from Indian tribal casinos, and conspiracy to travel in interstate and foreign commerce in aid of racketeering."

At the core of the Tran Organization's scam was the execution of "false shuffles," whereby "slugs" of unshuffled cards were insinuated into blackjack and mini-baccarat decks. This required the cooperation of corrupt casino employees and, from the looks of the Department of Justice's announcement, the core Tran Organization members must be rolling on their casino-employed helpers.

The Tran gang managed to take no fewer than 26 casinos during the life of its scheme, which is a very black mark against the industry's standard of game protection. The dishonor roll is as follows:

1) Beau Rivage Casino, Biloxi, Miss.
2) Casino Rama, Orillia, Ontario, Canada
3) Foxwoods Resort Casino, Ledyard, Conn.
4) Gold Strike Casino, Tunica, Miss.
5) Horseshoe Casino, Bossier City, La.
6) Horseshoe Casino & Hotel, Tunica, Miss.
7) Isle of Capri Casino, Westlake, La.
8) Majestic Star Casino, Gary, Ind.
9) Mohegan Sun Resort Casino, Uncasville, Conn.
10) Palace Station Casino, Las Vegas, Nev.
11) Resorts East Chicago Hotel & Casino, East Chicago, Ind.
12) Sycuan Casino, El Cajon, Calif.
13) Cache Creek Indian Bingo & Casino, Brooks, Calif.
14) Emerald Queen Casino, Tacoma, Wash.
15) Imperial Palace Casino, Biloxi, Miss.
16) Argosy Casino, Baton Rouge, La.
17) Trump 29 Casino, Coachella, Calif.
18) Isle of Capri Casino, Bossier City, La.
19) Agua Caliente Casino, Rancho Mirage, Calif.
20) Spa Resort Casino, Palm Springs, Calif.
21) Pechanga Resort & Casino, Temecula, Calif.
22) L'Auberge du Lac Casino, Lake Charles, La.
23) Nooksack River Casino, Deming, Wash.
24) Barona Valley Ranch Casino & Resort, Lakeside, Calif.
25) Caesars Indiana Hotel & Casino, Elizabeth, Ind.
26) Monte Carlo Resort & Casino, Las Vegas, Nev.

Optimism in Macao, euphoria at CityCenter

Tue, 08 Sep 2009 17:33:00 -0700

Relaxation of stringent visa restrictions from Guangdong Province came a full four months sooner than expected, starting Sept. 1. Now, residents will be able to visit Macao once a month instead of quarterly. While this has prompted J.P. Morgan to raise its price target on Las Vegas Sands stock, analysts also fret that Sands may overreact and go pedal to the metal on its unfinished Cotai Strip™ hotels.

Those same analysts are bullish on the manufacturing sector, though. They think casinos will be more willing to reinvest in the slot base as 2009 draws to a close. Also, the onward march of casino expansion means more jurisdictions and facilities to whom IGT, Bally and WMS can peddle their products. They're 'meh' on regional casino operators like Penn National, Ameristar Casinos and Pinnacle Entertainment, due to flattish performance. (Penn could catch a break in Kansas, though I still think Cordish Gaming has that sewn up.)

But that's a rave notice compared to the long face Morgan analysts pull when pondering Boyd Gaming's prospects. They cite the slow-to-recover, promo-driven locals-casino market in Las Vegas ("trickle-down" economics of the worst sort); Atlantic City's critical condition -- "the best-case scenario here is that [Borgata] would do less bad" than most of A.C. -- those blah regional metrics and new competition for the Blue Chip riverboat in Indiana, which had been looking like 2009's feel-good story.

Intriguingly, the prospect of a Strip acquistion is floated in lieu of a 'stalking horse' bid for floundering Station Casinos. Boyd's still got enough unused borrowing capacity it could even swing an acquisition of The Mirage (with money to spare), not to mention some of the lower-hanging fruit, which now includes Planet Hollywood. But if the J.P. Morgan guys are gun-shy concerning Boyd ...

They're over the moon about MGM Mirage's CityCenter: "we are increasingly under the belief that City Center will be a new must-see property for both domestic and international gamers/travelers that should drive solid visitation volumes to the Strip in 2010. We were impressed with the massive 18m-square-foot complex ... a new type of high-end product for the Strip that should garner increased trips. It has a very contemporary feel that is different than anything else on the Strip, with lots of natural light and high ceilings, interesting room product and, for a massive property, ease of getting around from one 'neighborhood' to the next."

More good news comes in the form of a press release from Commerce Casino (in Commerce, Calif.), which rolled out the welcome mat for a group of undoubtedly weary firefighters. A strike force of 30 Bay Area-based firemen is being housed in the casino's hotel, with the casino comping all meals and picking up most of the hotel tab. Let's hope that such civic-mindedness spreads through the industry like -- if you'll forgive the analogy -- wildfire.

In case it matters, "super-starlet" (yes, that's the official term) Holly Madison has been given a 12-month contract extension at Peepshow, so she's obviously earning her pay. Also, I've heard through the grapevine that she and incoming Aubrey O'Day do not get along, so the timing of the Madison announcement should make clear who's got the upper implant in this situation.

Pinnacle meets karma

Thu, 27 Aug 2009 13:30:00 -0700

Plans by Pinnacle Entertainment to move its President riverboat upriver just hit a big snag. Taking the view that the President's license is portable, Pinnacle hoped to use either the vessel itself or the license to jimmy open a new market niche along the Mississippi River.

Seems the Missouri Gaming Commission doesn't hold with Pinnacle's logic. Move the ship, they say, and it's open season on that 13th (and last) license in the Show-Me State. Right now, Pinnacle's keeping the President operational as a charity case -- thereby preserving the license -- but the Coast Guard is likely to shut her down in 10 months, so decrepit is the vessel.

Not that I wish ill for Pinnacle, one of the classier outfits in the industry, but this here is what's called "karma." Both Pinnacle and Ameristar Casinos pushed hard for legislation last year that uncapped the state's loss limits in return for capping the number of licensees. It was an anti-competitive move that was inveighed against in these pages.

Ameristar and Pinnacle tried to lock up what was an open territory. Now, with the President's license skittering about the field like a wet football, Pinnacle's going to find itself having to grapple with the very competitors it thought it had excluded from the game. Which is as it should be.

There can be only one. Two casino proposals from Cordish Gaming and Penn National have been forwarded to the Kansas Lottery Gaming Facility Review Board (Uff da!) for final arbitration, Remember that the last time we went through this, Penn got a whopping zero votes (probably due to a series of peevish public pronouncements), but then Cordish wanted to resubmit its project in smaller form.

This time around, Penn execs have been playing well with others, rather than trying to dictate the process. They're promising a three-phase, $564 million casino-resort (subject to certain economic conditions). Cordish is choosing to under-promise, committing only to a $390 million casino, at least until bluer skies return. Partnership with the Kansas Speedway still gives Cordish an edge (as does the Hard Rock brand) ... but the Kansas-casino process has been long, tortuous and filled with reversals of fortune. (Mike Ensign, anyone?)

Speaking of Kansas ... shoo-in Foxwoods has announced that it's restructuring its debt and enlisting outside assistance, yet another victim of ill-timed expansion. Small wonder Foxwoods and Lakes Entertainment decided to pool their pennies on Chisholm Creek Casino (above) rather than duke it out for the Wichita market.

Compromise is near. Down in Florida, that is. A formula too complicated to summarize here would bring the Seminole Tribe and the Sunshine State's Lege into agreement. (The Seminoles took one look at the compact fashioned by the Lege last spring and spat it out like bad food.) In return for accepting some restrictions on game offerings at some casinos, the Seminoles get a complete exemption from paying taxes to the state -- if private-sector gambling spreads beyond Broward and Miami-Dade counties. And if existing non-tribal casinos get, say, blackjack the Seminoles' obligation to the state is halved.

So tell me, why does Sheldon Adelson seriously think Florida is a potential growth market?

Boyd, Ameristar stable; CityCenter schedule revised

Wed, 05 Aug 2009 11:10:00 -0700

Second-quarter results from Boyd Gaming and Ameristar Casinos gave continued reason to be sanguine about each company. Both reported profits (12 cents per share at Boyd, double that at Ameristar) and both missed their revenue targets by an aggregate of only $8 million. A whopping (27%) jump in Colorado revenues for Ameristar last month was additional reason for confidence, offsetting weakness in Kansas City.

Cost control was credited with helping Boyd's performance, as was much-better-than-expected cash flow at Borgata. The Las Vegas locals market also ran ahead of expectations in that regard, while downtown and the Midwest/South casinos lagged. Bankruptcy filing or no, Boyd maintains that it continues to be a suitor for Station Casinos. Oh, and keeping Echelon mothballed -- while the least expensive of alternatives -- isn't cheap, costing Boyd $3 million a month.

MGM Mirage has sent LVA a revised, official list of dates for the debut of the various bits and pieces of CityCenter. (Excepted, of course, is the Harmon[ini] which, as of last Wednesday, had no firmer opening date than "late 2010.") The openings are as follows:

Vdara (Dec. 1); Crystals (Dec. 3); Mandarin Oriental (Dec. 4); Aria (Dec. 16), while condo closings in Veer Towers are set to "begin in January." When MGM gave a CityCenter dog-and-pony show to the Nevada Hospitality & Lodging Association last week, the computer graphics still showed Baldwin's Bump at its original, 48-story height. Also, the bluish tint that denoted CityCenter's acreage, by quirk or design, extended to embrace the Cosmopolitan. A portent?

Strange happenings at Penn Nat'l, Harrah's

Wed, 29 Jul 2009 18:31:00 -0700

While everybody's been focusing on the implosion of Station Casinos, the analysts at J.P. Morgan snuck out one of the more unusual (and entertaining) reports I've ever come across. They pored over Penn's 2Q09 filing and had some tales to tell.

The lead was that Penn was falling short of its cash-flow targets for the quarter. That musn't have been a complete surprise, given the incapacitation of Empress Joliet and the swapping out of one Lawrenceburg riverboat for another. However, there was trouble in River City, with Morgan analysts noting "an unexpected spike in large employee medical catastrophic claims at that [Lawrenceburg] property (bizarre), and 4) a less than productive new marketing program at Charlestown (marketing at Charlestown?) that did not produce incremental revs, but increased costs." The medical claims alone were a $1 million black eye.

They counseled against heading for the lifeboats, though, and pointed out that Penn has $795 million in cash in the till. (Do I hear an offer for Beau Rivage?) Morgan is also bullish on Penn's expansion prospects in Kansas (really?), Ohio and Maryland.

There was even some good news for competitor Ameristar Casinos, thanks to continued troubles at Harrah's Entertainment. Wrote the Morgans team: "Harrah's has not increased its promotional activity (comps, spending, reinvestment)," boding well for everyone else.

As Morgan reported earlier this month, Harrah's was -18% in Louisiana in June, by far the worst decline of any operator in the market -- while Boyd Gaming notched a slight gain (but a major victory in that context). Just as I've expected from the start, Texas Pacific and Apollo (Mis)Management are nickel-and-diming Harrah's into the poorhouse.

'Show Me' no stinkin' IDs

Mon, 27 Jul 2009 18:46:00 -0700

"We don't want them in there," huffs Ameristar Casinos' Troy Stremming (left) with regard to pathological gamblers. Stremming's high dudgeon rings a mite hollow now that the Missouri ballot initiative he crafted and shepherded to victory last fall is providing a free pass for problem gamblers. Once boarding requirements were repealed, away went the mechanism for screening self-banned gamblers. Whoops.

It's not like they still can't be caught on-property, though. Woe betide the player who hits a sufficiently big jackpot for his slot machine to go into "IRS lockdown." His identity has to be verified -- which means he can kiss those winnings goodbye and prepare to be handcuffed. To quote Geena Davis in Thelma & Louise, "The law is some tricky shit."

But Missouri's got nothing on Illinois, where casino employees double as "bounty hunters." If you're a self-banned player who's shooting dice at Alton Belle or Casino Queen, there's literally a price on your head.

More Midwest notes

Tue, 14 Jul 2009 10:46:00 -0700

Continuing a trend of lower-than-projected returns across the Midwest, Iowa's riverboats were flat last month and racinos saw a 5% decline. All major operators lost ground but something is very wrong at Ameristar Casinos, whose Council Bluffs boat was way outside the margin, reporting a 15% decline from last year.

Over in Detroit, in the hardest-hit state in America, general economic collapse is finally eating into the casino bidness. With MGM Grand Detroit off 10% and Motor City down 3%, it took a 24% upward leap in revenues at recently expanded Greektown Casino (above) to keep the market on an even keel. With an 0.4% overall decline in dollars won, Detroit stays within the "flat" classification.

Good time to own IGT. Sitting upon Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn's desk is a bill that could swamp the state with as many as 77,000 video slot machines. As J.P. Morgan breaks down the particulars: "video gaming terminals may be placed in 1) licensed establishments (“any licensed retail establishment where alcoholic liquor is drawn, poured, mixed, or otherwise served for consumption on the premises”), 2) licensed truck stop establishments (“facility that is at least a 3-acre facility with a convenience store and with separate diesel islands and parking spaces for commercial motor vehicles”), 3) licensed fraternal establishments (“location where a qualified fraternal organization regularly meets”), and 4) licensed veterans establishments (“location where a qualified veterans organization regularly meets”)."

Morgan analysts take a less-alarmist position on this change, projecting that no more than 40,000 devices will be installed, over a two-year period starting next year. Still, they like the prospects of International Game Technology, which is predicted to snare 60% of the market, with another 30% equally divided between WMS Industries and Bally Technologies -- a bit of a snub to favorite son WMS, no?

Competition forces sanity

Mon, 13 Jul 2009 18:50:00 -0700

While the Bible Belt may hold out until the bitter end, we may finally be seeing the demise of the "boats in moats" arrangement, a fig leaf that enabled Midwestern states to blushingly accept casino money. Illinois has started phasing it out. Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland's decree today that seven Buckeye State racetracks can go to racino status may be a real game-changer for neighboring Indiana.

First, a word on the Strickland move. It anticipates legislative passage of a package deal that would require tracks to pay $65 million upfront and the usual usurious tax rate (48-50%). However ... slot machines would be purchased by the state (and run under the auspices of the Ohio Lottery), which softens some of the pain. Racino facilities would have to be periodically upgraded, too, at an average of $16 million/year.

All this has spurred (well, slowly prodded) Indiana's Lege to take a second look at the Hoosier State's riverboat regime. This could mean everything from on-land casinos to free drinks for players. There's also talk of "simplying" taxes and admission fees. How about simply eliminating the latter? It's a paternalistic anachronism that needs to go away.

Don Barden's two Majestic Star boats will likely prove an impediment. Some solons want any arrangement to include moving one of them out of Gary, Ind., to better the chances of both. Whatever the case, don't expect any action until next year.

The recession is catching up with regional casino markets. Even the loosening of operating rules in Missouri wasn't enough to stave off a slippage in revenues. Chrysler and Hummer plant shutdowns might explain a -1% shift in St. Louis, but what about a -2.5% June in Kansas City? A 2% drop in statewide slot win was almost countered by an 8% jump at the tables, where higher betting limits are now in force.

Ameristar Casinos took the hit in K.C., down 12%. All other three major boats posted growth, led by Isle of Capri, up 5%. With a $19 million June, the Ameristar boat still led the market in dollar volume but both Harrah's Entertainment and Penn National are closing the gap.

In the greater St. Louis area, both Harrah's and Ameristar fell by an average of 5%, while Pinnacle Entertainment's Lumiere Place gained almost 6%, really starting to give the two older casinos a battle. Even the snake-bitten President had a good month, chipping in nearly $2 million to Pinnacle's kitty.

Further good news came in the form of the bulletin that Isle of Capri had eked out a month in the "plus" column. So even an outwardly disappointing June in the Show-Me State cosseted some significant tidings of comfort and show.

Rough trade

Mon, 13 Jul 2009 18:09:00 -0700

May wasn't great for Las Vegas, to say the least, with hotel occupancy -6%, a figure somewhat amplified by the presence of 3% more hotel rooms. The local ADR of $96.96 would have been regarded as real money back in the day. Hoteliers now are more likely to look at it in the context of the -28% shift from last year's rates. More worrisome is that convention attendance (-33%) outslid the number of conventions held (-26%), whereas it used to be the reverse.

Indiana has absorbed the effect of its two new racinos. Casino revenues were flat in June, a decline at most boats offset by the extra dollars generated at Harrah's Entertainment's Horseshoe Hammond (+13.5%) and Boyd Gaming's Blue Chip (+4%), both of which recently expanded. Penn National was hurt by the switchover to Hollywood Casino Lawrenceberg, its new vessel, and Ameristar East Chicago (-15%) withered under the glare of Horseshoe Hammond.

Illinois is scraping along, having evidently struck bottom ... for now. Once the impact of a fire-closed Empress Joliet was backed out, Illinois was down a mere 3%. That's practically a moral victory. Of course, with the institution of slot routes en route and the Lege contemplating a huge casino expansion in the state, any celebration will be short-lived. Harrah's Joliet was the logical beneficiary of the Empress Joliet shutdown (+5%), while MGM Mirage's Grand Victoria spiraled -17%.

There were a few gainers, ranging from miniscule (Boyd's Par-A-Dice) to massive (+109% at independent Casino Rock Island). East St. Louis-based Casino Queen finally lost a significant chunk of business (-11.5%) to its augmented Missouri rivals, while Penn's Alton Belle kept its leakage to -3%.

It's not a free market. Lawmakers in the Land of Lincoln have not only introduced slot routes, they may add four more casino licenses to the state. Factor in Neil Bluhm's casino project in Des Plaines (license #10), and the gambling market in Illinois becomes seriously diluted. However, no compensatory tax reduction is on the table.

When it comes to casinos and taxes, solons think simply that more = more. However, in a state where competition is limited by statute, not only does guvmint control the levers of the market place it has an obligation to take the economic consequences of its actions into account. This is not being done and the repercussions are likely to be severe.

Making out like bandits

Fri, 05 Jun 2009 13:05:00 -0700

In Business Las Vegas has crunched the numbers in its annual survey of Sin City's most highly paid executives. Not surprisingly, the list prominently features two companies -- Harrah's Entertainment and Station Casinos -- whose overpaid leadership has steered them into the ditch.

In terms of base salary, what's Station CEO Frank Fertitta III doing in the #2 spot, with $2.3 million? The guy must be a legend in his own mind if he thinks he warrants a higher wage than (then-) MGM Mirage CEO J. Terrence Lanni and Harrah's CEO Gary Loveman. (To say nothing of Las Vegas Sands doge Sheldon Adelson, a comparative pauper at $1.3 million.) You might question those gentlemen's business decisions, but they preside over companies far larger and more complex than Station.

Papa Frank belatedly realized he shouldn't have lent the boys the keys to the family car.

After stock-based compensation, bonuses, etc., were factored in, it was one big-ass payday at Harrah's, six of whose executives occupied the top 10. Even as their company groaned and crumpled under the weight of a spectacularly reckless LBO, and 9% of its workforce got the sack, these gentlemen carted home an aggregate $138.8 million. The dishonor roll includes CFO Jonathan Halkyard, regional presidents Carlos Tolosa, John Payne and Thomas Jenkin, and Vice Chairman Charles Atwood.

But even the best-remunerated of these (Tolosa, at $15.7 million) is a piker compared to Loveman's $92.3 million. They don't give pay packets like that at Harvard, do they? Loveman's tenure as Harrah's CEO looks increasingly like all-but-unmitigated reign of error but he's salting away enough wealth that his reputation need not concern him.

Former Harrah's exec John Boushy had a meeting of the minds (as in a head-butt) with colleagues at Ameristar Casinos, the result of which was that Boushy found himself on the street. But we should all be kicked to the curb so harshly: Boushy got $3 million -- including half a year's pay -- to take a hike. As walking-around money goes, that's not bad.

Case Bets: Packer & Ho, Sands Bethlehem, MGM Mirage, Ameristar, Penn, Harrah's, etc.

Wed, 03 Jun 2009 14:40:00 -0700

• Smashing guitars -- but not over each other's noggins -- James Packer and Lawrence Ho christened City of Dreams. The younger Ho downplayed expectations of foot traffic, saying his $2.4 billion megaresort could get by on far fewer visitors than the nearby (and comparably expensive) Venetian Macao, which draws 70K visitors daily.

• After a record-setting opening, Sands Bethlehem fell into fourth place during last week's casino action in Pennsylvania. Not surprisingly, Philadelphia Park and Harrah's Chester led the state.

• Beau Rivage is safe. Although MGM Mirage was peddling several of its regional casinos, J.P. Morgan reports that "we have heard from some bidders that this process is close to dead, so we don’t expect to hear asset sales chatter in the near to medium term."

• While yours truly was critical of staffing cuts at Ameristar Casinos, they appear to be paying off. The company projects flat revenue comparisons in 2009 but better cash-flow margins, pegging the savings as $40 million-$48 million, annualized.

• When in doubt, Penn National Gaming falls back on what it knows: racinos. It's angling for the Laurel Park concession left on the table when Magna Entertainment collapsed. Both Penn and rival David Cordish appear to be trying to chisel a loophole into Maryland's slot-parlor law, which limits companies to one slot house apiece. Penn is already committed to Cecil County but wants Laurel Park ... as does Cordish, who has a pre-standing commitment to the Arundel Mills area. The latter project has run into serious opposition. Expect a nip-and-tuck fight for Laurel Park.

• Penn is evidently getting cold feet in Ohio, however.

• Casino expansion in Iowa will have to wait until 2010, at the earliest. This delay is a disguised blessing. The Hawkeye State market has been holding its own during the recession but the timing for diluting the market with four new casinos could scarcely be worse.

• If wishes were horses, Harrah's Entertainment would be galloping along the shores of the Yangtze River this very minute. Seriously, would you lend Harrah's more money? Would you give an alcoholic the keys to your wine cellar? Well, you might get the empties back so you could redeem the deposit on the bottle.

"Another one bites the dust"

Fri, 15 May 2009 11:15:00 -0700

That's how a reader informed me of Las Vegas-based Golden Gaming's decision to bail on Wyandotte County in Kansas. Considering that you've got Harrah's Entertainment, Ameristar Casinos, etc. firmly entrenched across the state line in Kansas City, Mo., and Isle of Capri making a comeback over there, I don't blame Golden for its hesitation.

Penn National remains in the Wyandotte running but it found no support for its last bid and previous winner Cordish Co. withdrew amicably from its Kansas Speedway project so that it could be downsized. Casino-enabling legislation in the Sunflower State didn't allow Cordish to revise its proposal once it had been accepted by the Lottery Board. But Cordish promised it would be back, and it was.

Lottery Executive Director Ed Van Petten told media Golden wanted to conserve its assets, adding, "They are being conservative and playing it smart. I hate to see it, but I fully understand." Golden executive veep Rod Atamain's diplomatically phrased withdrawal alluded to preserving liquidity, among other motives:

"While we believe in the long-term viability and appeal of our site and project, we are not confident in making such a commitment on our own in the current environment." That's tantamount to an admission that Golden couldn't find lenders, especially considering Atamain's previous reference to "ongoing turmoil in the financial markets."

It would have been a tough call for Kansas. The Cordish and Golden projects were comparable in budget ($700 million vs. $662 million). As appealing as a Tom Watson golf course might be, Cordish's promise of a 50% larger slot base than Golden's would have been sweet music to state officials weathering a deep recession and counting the gambling receipts before even one handle is pulled.

In the meantime, Golden still has that liquidity it wants to preserve -- and its cash flow will improve this summer as liberalized casino rules in Colorado (Golden's primary market) take effect. It could always spend some of that dough close to home: Golden CEO Blake Sartini is the brother-in-law of Frank & Lorenzo Fertitta. What are the odds the Fertitta clan might try to spin off assets to Golden? It would enable Station Casinos to sweeten the offer it's making to bondholders and keep Boyd Gaming at bay, all in one fell swoop.

Just a thought.

Pinnacle: the untold story

Tue, 21 Apr 2009 11:51:00 -0700

Is waxing and buffing the Pinnacle Entertainment limo a prerequisite for scoring an interview with its CEO? This small masterpiece of selective omission is more interesting for what it elides than what it says. The article parrots Dan Lee as saying Pinnacle believes "not to start building something without the money to finish."

That's an excellent precept but it would resound with greater authority had Pinnacle not gotten bogged down in Atlantic City by failing to practice what it preaches. It bought Carl Icahn's old Sands, razed it, cleared the land ... then found it couldn't raise the capital to build the megaresort Lee had envisioned. By that point, Pinnacle had exercised such a heavy hand in its attempts to acquire more acreage -- at prices it intended to dictate to the market -- that the project's subsequent collapse didn't even inspire much regret along the Boardwalk. Now Pinnacle's got money tied up in Atlantic City it could be using to go trophy hunting along the Strip.

Also, it's not a good sign that Pinnacle's half-billion-dollar Lumiere Place is finishing a very distant second in the company's portfolio, doing only 57% the revenue of L'Auberge du Lac, down in Lake Charles, La. True, L'Auberge owns a near-stranglehold on its market, while Lumiere Place has several competitors. But the latter has scarcely made a dent in rival operations by Harrah's Entertainment and Ameristar Casinos. Nor, despite being smack-dab in the middle of the St. Louis waterfront, has it pulled significant amounts of business away from Casino Queen, across the river in Illinois.

Pinnacle has overspent and overcommitted itself -- and don't forget it nearly followed Columbia Sussex over the precipice in the feverish bidding for Aztar Corp. To Lee's considerable credit (no pun intended): A) corporate debt is below $1 billion; B) Pinnacle completely outfoxed Harrah's in their Lake Charles-for-Biloxi property swap; C) that Houston-fed market is rich enough to carry Pinnacle for the time being, and D) a clever if anti-competitive ballot initiative (for which Ameristar's Troy Stremming gets most of the credit) will entrench Pinnacle's Missouri position.

As 2009's gaming group goes, Pinnacle is faring better than all but a few. But it's made its share of MGM Mirage-like mistakes, just on a smaller, more-affordable scale. Pinnacle wasn't the only irrationally exuberant casino company during the 2005-07 boom but let's not go paint it as a paragon of restraint, either.

Deep within the septic tank that is the Las Vegas Review-Journal's online-comments section one finds the (very) occasional fact. In the case of the gaping void left at the Tropicana Las Vegas by the peremptory closure of Folies Bergere, longtime Vegas observer Phil Hevener had the following scoop: "One of the issues at the Trop was that the owners decided to leave the matter of a show for the new operator (Alex Yemenidjian) since show creators and hotel builders alike are having trouble finding money these days."

Not only does that have the ring of plausibility but when Hevener's got a tip, chances are you can take it to the bank. As for CEO Scott Butera and his underwhelming LV Trop administration, do you ever get the feeling they're just making it up as they go along?

Missouri: Dough and "D'oh!"

Wed, 11 Feb 2009 17:34:00 -0700

Silly me. I had the Missouri numbers sitting in my "Inbox" all day yesterday and simply overlooked them amidst a typically frenetic day. A big "thank you" though to reader Bob Bradley, who provided the short and long versions (click on the "January 2009" link for a PDF). The mitigating factors cited in the sixth paragraph of the Post-Dispatch story (such as holidays and number of weekend days) should be taken into account when reading what follows.

The market was up 10% on the nose for January, validating not only Wall Street's renewed faith in regional gaming markets but also eradicating any remaining doubts that the state of Illinois is toxic to casinos. I admire Neil Bluhm's confidence in pursuing that 10th license but can't imagine why anyone would want to be in Illinois right now.

Pinnacle Entertainment's President riverboat has been a floating corpse for sometime now, so -43% comes as no surprise. An ever-so-slight decline at Harrah's Entertainment's Maryland Heights property is an unaccountable disappointment, though, given the liberalized rules that are driving revenue increases across the Show-Me State. Pinnacle's Lumiere Place, a distant third in St. Louis, still has a lot of catching up to do, even with Illinois practically shooing customers into its arms. Penn National, though, leapfrogged Harrah's in Kansas City, moving into the #2 spot. All three Isle of Capri boats posted gains, in a long-overdue piece of good news for that company.

Ameristar Casinos wasn't the biggest percentage gainer in either the St. Louis or Kansas City markets (that would be Lumiere Place -- which saw a 25% higher influx of foot traffic -- and Penn's Argosy Riverside, respectively). But in terms of sheer dollar amount, Ameristar remains the dominant operator in both. The future course of this company may be hazy but you have to admire how well they're maintaining the status quo.

Going down in Illinois

Tue, 10 Feb 2009 17:56:00 -0700

When it comes to Upper Midwest casinos, there's Illinois and then there's Everyone Else. Except that, in this case, you want to be "Everyone Else." Being Illinois sucks.

January numbers for Missouri aren't out yet but Iowa is up 3%, Indiana is seeing a 12% surge ... and Illinois is -9%. That's on top of the -18% hammering the Land of Lincoln took a year ago, when smoking in casinos became a no-no. Whatever impact the recession is having on neighboring states' casinos, refugee players from Illinois riverboats are more than compensating.

The news isn't quite as good as it could be for Indiana, where the gain is more than offset on a same-store basis by the dilutive effect of two new-ish racinos and Harrah's Entertainment's Horseshoe Hammond behemoth. These ill-timed (for their competitors, that is) expansions have left everybody else slicing the ham thinner, in Fred Harvey's dying words. (The restaurant mogul's last utterance was alleged to be, "Slice the ham thinner." And, no, he wasn't an F&B executive at Station Casinos.)

Some salient Indiana facts ...

• Expansion of Horseshoe Hammond is not only a positive (+16%) in itself, it's more than making up for softening at Horseshoe Southern Indiana (-3%). Was taking the Caesars brand off the latter a good idea? Just asking.

• French Lick is licked (-14%). Somebody has to be in last place and Indiana's only land-based casino is "It."

• Ameristar East Chicago is feeling the Hammond Effect (-4%) but surpasssed analyst expectations nonetheless.

• Grand Victoria is in freefall -- eight straight months of double-digit declines, including last month's -26%. Will it hit bottom before it passes French Lick on the way down? Speaking of the bottom ...

• Congratulations to Boyd Gaming's Blue Chip (-2%), which is finally pulling out of a protracted skid. If Boyd can live with 65-70% of Blue Chip's pre-2008 performance, the future -- thanks to a newly augmented casino-hotel -- inspires hope.

• Majestic Star II needs to be moved (an idea that's getting kicked around by various governmental bodies). While its sister ship is hanging in moderately well, Majestic II's year/year comparisons are almost as dreadful as Grand Victoria's.

• The turnaround of Casino Aztar (off but three-tenths of a point) remains 2008's #1 success story in the industry.

Racinos were less of a factor in Iowa, were they were flat while riverboats nudged their revenue up 4%. The three tracks, though, do generate roughly a third of the state's casino revenue, while 14 riverboats divvy up the rest, not counting tribal casinos (which don't report revenue).

• Harrah's Council Bluffs (+4%) stole market share from Ameristar's rival facility (-6%), but the latter still does nearly double the business ($13.4 million to $7.7 million).

• Positive comparisons at two of Isle of Capri's four Iowa casinos were more than offset by declines at the other two, for an aggregate of -2%.

• Two smallish riverboats, Diamond Jo and Mississippi Belle, enjoyed spectacular improvements in January, +104% and +51%, respectively.

All generalizations about Illinois are false in the sense that there are exceptions that prove the rule. For instance, while the smoking ban has quantifiably been death for Illinois casinos, the first one to open as a non-smoking casino -- Casino Rock Island's new facility -- has been up 118% and 112% in the last two months. Is there something about not being able to smoke in a casino that still smells of cigarettes that's worse for business than not being able to smoke in a nice, fresh facility?

Another paradox is that the casino one would think most likely to feel the brunt of St. Louis-area competition, East St. Louis-berthed Casino Queen, was the last to experience the downturn that was sweeping the rest of Illinois and is now almost back (-3%) to year-ago figures, which themselves were only -2% from January '07.

With Boyd's Par-A-Dice (-5%), Harrah's Metropolis (-9%) and Penn National's Hollywood Aurora (-7%) decelerating from last year's precipitous declivity -- when they were -10%, -19% and -16%, respectively -- one would like to believe that the bottom is near for Illinois, but the Penn boat is the only bright spot in Chicagoland and the same company's Alton Belle (-15%) is still taking it on the chin from Missouri.

Colorado casinos: Four votes, four wins

Wed, 21 Jan 2009 18:47:00 -0700

After a statewide vote approved 'round-the-clock operation at Colorado's non-tribal casinos (along with a 20X increase in betting limits and a wider repertory of games), the measure wasn't home and dry. It had to be voted through in Cripple Creek, Black Hawk and Central City. I heard some skepticism voiced about whether the citizens of Central City were on board with a gambling expansion but they sure were. The proposed liberalization racked up an overwhelming victory yesterday.

Don't gas up for a drive to Colorado just now. The widened operating rules don't kick in until July 1. Although neither Ameristar Casinos nor Riviera Holdings is directly affected by the Central City vote, Wall Street finally got a clue as both stocks traded slightly upward today. Ditto Penn National but not Isle of Capri. Congratulations to all Colorado operators, who definitely could use the relief.

Buyback at Isle

Wed, 14 Jan 2009 14:48:00 -0700

As reader Bill Jones pointed out, Isle of Capri is making a first-come, first-served offer to retire 28% of senior debt at 55 cents on the dollar. (Official version here.) Wall Street wasn't impressed, with Isle stock -16% as of this moment. But then what's with the market today? Voters in Black Hawk, Colo., OK'd expanded games, hours and betting limits, and yet both Ameristar Casinos and Riviera Holdings (which operate in Black Hawk) are down roughly 12% in today's trading. The Black Hawk bulletin is a not-inconsiderable positive -- but you wouldn't know it from Wall Street's glum reaction.

A house divided

Wed, 07 Jan 2009 11:54:00 -0700

Give credit where it's due to the Las Vegas Review-Journal for today's interesting revelation that Columbia Sussex had been running the Las Vegas Tropicana with rival GMs overseeing the casino and hotel operations, respectively. This appears to confirm rumors I'd heard that ColSux likes to 'silo' the gambling and lodging aspects of its casino-hotels into separate profit centers which compete against each other instead of operating symbiotically.

With corporate thinking like that, it's no wonder that even Global Gaming Business Editor Roger Gros said, at G2E, that ColSux "didn't understand the [casino] industry." A newspaper interview with Casino Aztar interim skipper Tom Dingman details the decimation that took place there on ColSux's watch. Given how rundown the Casino Aztar infrastructure was when Dingman arrived, his ability to turn around business there is all the more impressive. Whoever succeeds Dingman shouldn't tinker with his business model, as it's proven to be an indisputable success.

Further down in the same assemblage of news briefs is the announcement of Brooke Dunn's New Years Eve resignation from Shuffle Master. The former Shuffle Master senior VP has been under a cloud ever since the SEC recommended civil prosecution against him for allegedly passing privileged information to an unrelated third party. Dunn's resignation was sadly inevitable, as he can neither fuufill his job responsibilities nor be entrusted with sensitive information as long as the SEC's accusations hang over his head.

Also out the door is the Ameristar Casinos Chief Accounting Officer Thomas Malone "who has resigned to pursue other opportunities," such as the opportunity of not having the doorknob hit you in the butt. Former Progressive Gaming CFO Heather Rollo replaces Malone. Given the performance of its casinos despite the recession, Ameristar has been unaccountably jittery of late, with Malone's abrupt departure being merely the latest tremor.

Update: Yet another executive who is choosing to "pursue other interests," like updating his resumé, is Tropicana Entertainment CFO Robert Kocienski. After a brief tenure in the job, he's been shown the door in favor of ex-Shuffle Master CFO Richard Baldwin, a long-tenured slot industry executive. Combine this with the hiring of Ron Thacker to run the LV Trop and it's one ex-Cosmopolitan executive in, one out. So I guess they can put that big Cosmo Class of '08 reunion on hold.

Collapse in Kansas; Herbst is toast

Fri, 05 Dec 2008 11:20:00 -0700

And then there was one.

A Cordish Co./Kansas Speedway joint venture has pulled the chicken switch on a $400 million casino project. This leaves avionics firm Butler National Service Corp., with its Dodge City concession, as the only company with an ongoing casino project in Kansas -- Penn National, Harrah's Entertainment and now Cordish having walked away from the other three concessions. Project head Joseph Weinberg wants to build a casino-first, amenities-later version of what had been proposed. Of course, in order to do that, the bidding process will have to be re-started from scratch. Also, Weinberg's plan assumes that Cordish gets the nod a second time and, were I a member of the Kansas Lottery's board, I'd be getting pretty fed up with the diva-dom displayed by some of the casino applicants.

On the other hand, if a company as well-regarded as Cordish can't get its Speedway casino financed, that makes it easier to excuse Harrah's exit from the Sunflower State. The Lottery says it is willing to"invite applicants to apply with proposals they feel fit the current economic climate." [read: "smaller budgets"]. That, combined with the sudden availability of Sumner County, opens the door wide for Penn National. If the Lottery's board wants to give Penn the Sumner/Cherokee County parlay it requested (and lower the budget for the latter), Penn is the one company that could execute the projects out of cash on hand. Or is it saving its pennies for a Vegas Strip property now?

Across the border, the clever chaps at Pinnacle Entertainment have found a loophole in Missouri law that might enable them to open yet another casino market. Revenues at the old President riverboat, on the St. Louis waterfront, are down somewhere in the bilge water. But Pinnacle has a discrete gaming license for the ship and an option on some land toward the northern end of St. Louis, near the Chain of Rocks Bridge. There, it proposes to essentially dry-dock the President.

Since Missouri law doesn't expressly forbid what Pinnacle is contemplating, the company could open a new market in the state, even though the number of licenses remains frozen at 13. Smooth move. But it's not one that's going to sit well with the backers of Sugar Creek and Cape Girardeau projects that were frozen out when Missourians voted for the license cap last month. And it underscores the perils of shutting the door to new competition, as Pinnacle and Ameristar Casinos are beginning to treat Missouri as their private fiefdom.

Already, Ameristar veep Troy Stremming -- the architect of the freeze -- is huffing that Missourians dare not let Sugar Creek get into the game: “We don’t want to get into a situation where we are over-saturating the market and cannibalizing existing destination facilities.” No, but it's hunky-dory to let Stremming's buddies at Pinnacle have three St. Louis-area locations instead of their current two. No oversaturation or cannibalization there, huh? At least Stremming won't have the casinos-in-Kanas bogeyman to brandish anymore, now that all but one of those projects has collapsed.

Hope for Harrah's. The Chinese government is experimenting with parimutuel wagering on horse races. If the ChiComms can be persuaded to extend the sport of kings to Macao, maybe Harrah's can make serious use of that golf course it purchased and which is now ineligible for casino development. Frank Fahrenkopf couldn't resist mentioning that white elephant during his joint appearance with Harrah's CEO Gary Loveman during G2E. Judging from some of Fahrenkopf's subtle rapier thrusts and Loveman's harrumphing response, there seems little love lost between the twosome.

Herbst Watch, Day Two. The Magic 8 Ball (in the guise of Liz Benston) says bankruptcy likely for Herbst Gaming, which is in default on $1.27 billion of debt. This has been in the cards for Herbst ever since it got taken to the cleaners by MGM Mirage for some Primm, Nev., casinos that had seen better days (like, maybe 10 years ago). Benston's description of the $394 million boondoggle is "ill-advised." Understatement doesn't get any better than that, my friends.

Case Bets: Ho Tram, Shuffle(d) Master, Ameristar

Tue, 18 Nov 2008 12:17:00 -0700

Tout le monde may be at G2E (albeit 10% less le monde than last year, I'm told) but the big news is happening elsewhere.

MGM Mirage has emerged as the "angel" for the Ho Tram Strip in Vietnam. It's a sweet deal for MGM, as Mike Aymong's Asian Coastal Development Ltd. ponies up the $4.2 billion construction cost, while MGM lends its brand name and operational expertise (in return for a fee) to an 1,100-room hotel but is spared any exposure. ACDL will also receive the benefit of MGM's marketing abilities. An empty stretch of Vietnamese beachfront suddenly looks a great deal more like a viable resort project.

Per Joel Bergman's remarks, given on Monday, about MGM putting property on the block, Marketwatch confirms it. MGM President Jim Murren says "non-core assets" are for sale, including undeveloped land on the Strip. So maybe City Center II, including "Atlantis Vegas" isn't happening after all.

Shuffle Master gets shuffled. The deck of executive cards at Shuffle Master just got run through the shoe. Senior VP Brooke Dunn is being placed on leave, at least for now. The SEC is recommending civil litigation against him pursuant to alleged insider trading. Dunn's accused of tipping an unidentified third party to Shuffle Master inside dope.

Splitting kings. The chairman and CEO roles at Shuffle Master are being cleaved apart, with board member (and former Greenspun Corp. exec) Phil Peckman assuming the chairman's gavel. Outgoing CEO Mark Yoseloff stays in that role, as the company's search for a replacement continues ... and continues. Presumably to further ensure stability, three veteran Shuffle Master execs -- Perry Lopez, General Counsel Jerry Smith, and Roger Snow -- have all been named executive veeps.

Ameristar Casinos continues to run up the white flag, laying off over 5% of its Missouri workforce. This is ironic, considering that Ameristar was the author and prime backer of the constitutional amendment that will remove the state's "loss limit" -- a change that will redound to Ameristar's financial benefit. Although the amendment's passage is expected to widen the gap between the "haves" (Ameristar, Pinnacle Entertainment, Harrah's Entertainment) and the "have-nots" (Isle of Capri and several independent operators), Ameristar is acting like it came out on the losing side.

Indiana: It's all relative

Tue, 11 Nov 2008 13:07:00 -0700

Sifting through my massive pile of unwritten Questions of the Day and unstudied analyst reports, we come to Indiana's October revenues. Ultimately, whether any particular metric is good or bad depends on context and perspective.

To start with the big number, revenue was up 14% from October '07. But that turned into a 1% decline once new racinos Hoosier Park and Indiana Park were sifted out, and goes even lower if you minimize the numbers from the recently augmented Horseshoe Hammond. So, whatever "bounce" Indiana is getting from the smoking ban in Illinois, it's being diluted by gambling expansion within the Hoosier State. So it's good for tax coffers, not so good for individual operators.

Harrah's killed with Horseshoe Hammond, which is more like an aircraft carrier with slots than a casino. But it proved a potent "one-ship task force" (a sometimes sacrcastic nickname given the U.S.S. Boise after it claimed to have sunk six Japanese ships at the Battle of Cape Esperance), more than making up for declines at Horseshoe Southern Indiana. Hammond revenues went up 52% and Harrah's overall take rose 20%.

Despite the panicky attitudes manifested of late at Ameristar Casinos, its East Chicago property was off but 3.5%, despite the Horseshoe Hammond factor, which ate far worse into Don Barden's Gary, Ind., flotilla.

What to make of Blue Chip? To see the glass as half-full, the double-digit revenue declines that began in August '07 are slowly starting to narrow. Business has been off as much as $10 million year/year, and October's 18% decline comes atop a 22% declivity the year before. But it looks like Blue Chip is going to bottom out at 60%-65% of its former market share. And it was Indiana's seventh-winningest casino in October, keeping Boyd Gaming out of the bottom tier.

Down south, only Casino Aztar showed revenue growth (5%), which continues to validate current management's aggressive mindset -- but business still hasn't returned to pre-Columbia Sussex levels. As for French Lick, so long hyped as a casino destination, so greatly anticipated, it has proven Indiana's most disappointing market. It's the least-lucrative in the state and continues to give indications of having peaked.

Slots are tight at Belterra. How else to explain a 10% win increase on -14% handle? The last time somebody managed a feat like that He fed a large crowd with but a few loaves and fishes.

Shut up yourself

Mon, 10 Nov 2008 16:58:00 -0700

New York-New York's obnoxious new ad campaign, "comes right out of an honest voice," says ad exec David Angelo. "Stop your whining and have a great time."

It's "an honest voice," all right: That of Phil Gramm, who famously called us a "nation of whiners," victims of a "mental recession." And that message resonated so very effectively, didn't it?

I'm guessing Angelo and MGM Mirage decided the slogan, "Give us your money, chump" was excessively subtle.

A third-quarter loss is hardly good news, unless you're Sheldon Adelson and your company's red ink actually narrowed from 3Q07. Too bad about St. Reggie's, though.

Then there's Ameristar, which increased revenues by $56 million, turned a profit -- and yet all it can talk about is cutting jobs and sweating comps even more than it already has. Ameristar's embrace of "death spiral marketing" is further evidence -- if any were needed -- that this company is adrift, lacking any forward-looking strategy.

Casino Vote '08: Dan Lee's the big winner

Wed, 05 Nov 2008 16:36:00 -0700

JP Morgan has proclaimed Pinnacle Entertainment "the biggest winner this election day." By voting to both lift the cap on buy-ins and the close Missouri to additional casinos, Show-Me State voters delivered a gift to Pinnacle CEO Dan Lee, who has massively invested in the greater St. Louis market and can now reap the benefits of higher wagers and artificially limited competition. Anybody contemplating the investment risk that Pinnacle has been lately (with at least $2.85 billion in outstanding projects) can sleep a little more soundly tonight.

But, as Morgan analysts point out, the stomping of a pro-casino initiative in Ohio redounds to the benefit of Pinnacle's Belterra casino (and Penn National's Argosy Lawrenceburg riverboat). While the Ohio vote reflects a certain amount of anti-casino sentiment, this was one of those ballot measures where the devil was in the details. It polled well in the immediate region, which has been hard-hit with job losses (5,000 of which casino backers promised to replace) but it was "no sale" upstate. An otherwise leftward-trending electorate was unpersuaded.

Specifically, there was a "trap door" in the enabling language that might have let Lakes Entertainment slip its tax obligations if tribal casinos open in the Buckeye State (a long shot, but one voters weren't willing to hazard), not to mention that the casino was to be allowed to operate with scant oversight. Oh, and the license fee ($15 million) wasn't chicken feed, but it's considerably less than what casinos are ponying up elsewhere -- like Kansas -- where no monopolies are promised. The face-saving spin was that "misleading ads" were to blame -- like that's anything new in politics.

Details were the bane in Maine, too, where Olympia Gaming found itself on the losing end of a casino plebiscite. Maine voters have taken a go-slow approach to casino expansion in their state, also voting down a racino at Scarborough Downs. There also seems to have been some "payback" involved -- from Down Easters who had seen their own casino aspirations crushed five years ago. If they couldn't have a casino, those upstart resort communities were going to be SOL, too. So there!

Pat LaMarche expresses her considered opinion of Maine's electoral process.

Lowering the legal gambing age to 19 stuck in voters' craw, as did certain other special privileges which were to be extended to the Oxford County casino and to Gary Goett's Olympia. Project booster Pat LaMarche sniffed that folks in Maine were "very unfriendly" and says she's going to take her ball and LaMarche right next door to New Hampshire.

On the other hand, LaMarche is the bete noire of intolerant religious wack jobs, so that's something in her favor.

Having a win/win day, was also the good fortune of Ameristar Casinos, which will see some relief in Colorado, in addition to prevailing in Missouri. In return for helping the state's community-college system, Colorado casinos get some new goodies that -- we hope -- will ameliorate the effects of the state's smoking ban.

It's a mixed bag, albeit more positive than negative, for Penn National. It headed off the Ohio threat but finds its flagship property in West Virginia facing competitive pressure not only from Pennsylvania but soon from Maryland, even though the latter's ramp-up is roughly four years away. Penn astutely protected its flank by optioning strategically placed real estate near Baltimore, in its first move after its LBO imploded last summer.

(Amusingly, both sides in the Maryland fight used President-elect Obama as a "product placement" in their literature. They knew a good "branding opportunity" when they saw one.)

Hopefully the Maryland Lege will revisit (read: reduce) the confiscatory 67% tax rate. Otherwise, brace yourself for Ye Olde Shack O'Slots, as no sane businessman would invest heavily in a casino with such a narrow operating margin. By establishing a Maryland beachhead, Penn is probably thinking more in terms of capturing "leakage" from its other nearby properties, not having visions of $$$ dancing in its head.

Former governor, sometime racino proponent and "Casino Jack" Abramoff beneficiary Robert Leroy "Bob" Ehrlich Jr. (R) hoped to "see us kill this turkey," but that sounds like sour grapes from the one-term blunder, er, wonder. Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) moved the ball across the goal line with 59% support, whereas Ehrlich couldn't get it upfield in four tries -- even in the post-9/11 economy. It may nearly be Thanksgiving but the only turkey in sight is Ehrlich (or is that a thinly disguised Steve Carell?)

Speaking of "Casino Jack", add him to the "losers" column of our S&G "Winners & Losers" with a capital "L." From the jailhouse, convicted felon Abramoff tried to 'Swift Boat' his archnemesis, John McCain, but the effort sank without leaving the pier. What a schlemil.

Loose change: Voters also gave their assent to a lottery in Arkansas and expanded table games at Greenbrier Resort in West Virginia. So I'd score that as two lost battles (Ohio, Maine), one decisive victory (Maryland) and incremental wins in four other skirmishes.

On balance, a good day.

Winners & Losers

Wed, 05 Nov 2008 13:52:00 -0700

And now the obligatory post-Election, What's-it-all-about-Alfie roundup ...

Culinary Union 1, Casino CEOs O: True, the Culinary tripped all over its own feet in the early going, leading to Democratic caucuses that weren't so much "Barackular" as "debacular." But D. Taylor & Co. backed the winning horse and did it early, which earns some chits down the road, plus they have a new Capitol Hill friend in Rep.-elect Dina Titus. Messrs. Lanni, Loveman, Wynn, Adelson and Trump made a variety of presidential wagers, losing every one.

Ameristar Casinos/Pinnacle Entertainment: They wanted a protected oligarchy in Missouri and now they've got it -- and at relatively little additional tax burden to them.

Slot manufacturers: OK, so Ohio and Maine didn't come through and the Missouri market is frozen. But 15K new slots in Maryland ain't chicken feed. Plus a West Virginia casino expansion that flew under the radar got voted in. Inexplicably, slot stocks traded downward. Stupid Wall Street.

Colorado casinos: They didn't so much "win" as get a hefty lifeline thrown to them by Rocky Mountain State voters who approved 20X higher betting limits, 'round the clock operations, and roulette and craps. (No Sen. John McCain sightings in Cripple Creek yet, though.)

Freedom's Watch: So far F-Double-U is 6-9-1 (with Sen. Gordon Smith [R] of Oregon momentarily in the "tie" column) in its top-priority races. I'm feeling generous and crediting the Adelson front group with "wins" in the case of self-destructing Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-FL), who continued the scummy tradition of predecessor Mark Foley, and in that of Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), who faces a December do-over, thanks to Georgia law. And veering off at the last minute to spend money attacking not-up-for-reelection Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)? Adelsonian political acumen at its finest. Winner? Loser? Let's call it a draw.

Poker: Just when it looked like the poker phenomenon was about to jump the shark, we've got a poker-playing president-elect. I dunno if Ms. Pelosi and Messrs. Reid, McConnell and Boehner cotton to hashing out legislation over cigars, booze and a deck of cards, but they'd better get ready for a whole new kind of "smoke-filled room."

Online Poker: Chances for a repeal of the UIGEA suddenly look a lot better.

Karma: Bearing false witness and serial adultery remain very uncool. But multiple felony counts and assorted other financial malfeasances remain A-OK with voters of both parties. (Hint: If Ted Stevens has to be forcibly removed from office, start practicing the phrase "Senator Palin." Kinda trips off the tongue, don't it?)

Gays & Lesbians: Voters in California stuck it to one of Vegas' most loyal constituencies big-time, passing the hateful Proposition 8. Were Nevada not so socially conservative (although compassionate enough to have legalized medical marijuana a ways back), I'd say we should vote for gay nuptials here, then sit back and gloat as the bucks roll in.

Tom Tancredo and ilk: Even if you abhor George W. Bush, you've got to give it up for his ability to rally Hispanic voters to the GOP standard. (I can't speak for Biloxi-Gulfport or Atlantic City, but Las Vegas can't function without its Latino labor base and casino CEOs know this; that's why immigration is their "third rail" of politics.) I always thought the immigration issue would be a non-starter in this election -- and it was. But the Tancredos of the GOP, by ginning it up in both '06 and early '08, antagonized Latinos, scored an own-goal and eradicated the gains Bush made with this voting bloc. So, in lieu of a prolonged post-mortem, maybe Republicans should just burn Tancredo in effigy and then turn the page.

Gaming's GOP influence: The annihilation of GOP moderates at the national level is largely complete, leaving an electoral map that looks a lot like the Confederacy, plus a horseshoe-shaped chunk of the West. Subtract Mississippi, Louisiana and tribal casinos and you've got slim pickings there. Gambling-friendly Republicans like Govs. Haley Barbour (MS) and Charlie Crist (FL) have made progress, but not easily and not without much expenditure of political capital. It's difficult to see where American Gaming Association boss Frank Fahrenkopf goes within his own party when he needs its support. The casino industry's investment in the GOP has yielded scant ROI.

Gov. Jim Gibbons: With state Sens. Joe Heck and Bob Beers, and Rep. Jon Porter all packed off to early retirement by their constituents, Gibbons suddenly has much less to fear from within his own party two years hence. (Ditto Porter's designs on Sen. Harry Reid's [D-NV] seat.)

Rep. Dean Heller (R-NV): If he opts to challenge Reid -- or Gibbons -- he's now the presumptive frontrunner. (I still think "Gov. Oscar Goodman" has a nice ring to it.)

North Las Vegas Mayor Michael Montandon (R): He's laying the groundwork for an intra-party challenge to Gibbons. Montandon's ably managed growth in NLV and would easily trump Gibbons on the "competence" front. The sudden political demise of Beers, Heck and Porter gives him a clear field of fire.

Tourists: Ever hospitable, Clark County voters gave them the finger, by endorsing a 2%-3% hike in the hotel tax. Thankfully, it's just an advisory vote.

Joe the Player: Winner. Clinton-era tax rates are coming back, which may hurt the "whales" but should be good for the rest of us. The Clinton administration coincided with halcyon years of casino growth, especially in Vegas and on the Gulf Coast. The succeeding eight years were dominated by M&A binges, condomania and a narrowing of the Strip's economic appeal toward the monied elite -- the latter being a very sore point among casino consumers. Vegas-wise, which eight years would you choose?

Jon Ozark: This cardboard dummy was wheeled into Nevada Assembly District 21 by local monied interests, to knock off Asm. Bob Beers -- not be confused with the less-hirsute state Sen. Bob Beers -- for having the audacity to stand up against Steve Wynn, he whose name dare not be pejoratively uttered in Carson City. That much having been accomplished, in the general election Ozark discovered once again that it takes more than a pretty face to win. Good luck in your next district, Mr. Ozark. They say the third one's the charm.

Missouri amendment to pass: JP Morgan

Mon, 03 Nov 2008 13:36:00 -0700

Analysts at JP Morgan like the chances for a Missouri constitutional amendment largely bankrolled by Ameristar Casinos and Pinnacle Entertainment. While Ameristar stands to benefit in tangible ways, JP Morgan focuses on what it could for Pinnacle: a 15% increase in Lumiere Place cash flow and perhaps another $2 per share (at $5.41 as of this moment).

Other takeaways from today's investor note: 1) Lake Charles, La., which Pinnacle dominates, looks good to buck the national trend and keep growing its casino revenue; 2) the heretofore disappointing Lumiere Place is at "an inflection point" in which its Four Seasons hotel starts to become a contributor instead of "a drag on earings"; 3) Pinnacle is holding its ground, at Belterra, better than most of its southern Indiana competitors -- Penn National's Argosy Lawrenceburg in particular.

There's still the matter of the $600 million River City project in suburban St. Louis and Pinnacle's stymied Atlantic City megaresort. Pinnacle appears to have let spending get pretty exuberant (only in its $250 million Baton Rouge riverboat casino do budget and market really seem to square up), so it'd premature for CEO Dan Lee to take any victory laps -- not that it would be in his nature.

Update: Only in the convoluted logic of the Las Vegas Review-Journal would a constitutional amendment that bars new casinos from Missouri be blithlely described as "Gaming expansion." So, if Ohio voters approve Lakes Entertainment's proposed casino, will that be "gaming contraction"?

'Show Me' more money

Fri, 31 Oct 2008 11:49:00 -0700

Missouri voters are being asked to approve a constitutional amendment, submitted by Ameristar Casinos executive Troy Stremming, which would make a couple of significant changes in how business is done in Show-Me State casinos. (The full version is here, but the précis tells you what you most need to know.)

There are three salient features to this amendment, which might be summarized as The Good, The Bad and The Neutral.

The Neutral: Taxes on casinos would be raised 1%, for a total rate of 21%. In and of itself, this is not such a big deal, as I'll explain below.

The Good: The amendment repeals the state's loss limits, a paternalistic measure which doesn't actually limit how much you can lose (like that's any of Jefferson City's beeswax) but how frequently you can buy in. This should have been history a long time ago or, better yet, never enacted.

The Bad: The amendment would close Missouri to new casino licensees. Anybody already licensed or building in Missouri (read: Pinnacle Entertainment) would be grandfathered. After passage of the amendment, the only way into Missouri would be if an existing riverboat were sold, went out of business or lost its license.

That's a pretty sweet deal, especially if you're Ameristar and probably want to bat your eyelashes at potential suitors. Ameristar's two Missouri casinos did a combined $160 million in cash flow last year and the company, using its 2007 financials, is conservatively worth $2.1 billion. A freezing of the Missouri market would make Ameristar more valuable still.

But the amendment anti-competitive on its face. Nor have I heard any compelling argument for closing Missouri to additional operators -- other than protecting the ones already there from an environment that will be somewhat more competitive as Kansas' casinos begin to enter the fray.

And ... this may be more cracker-barrel philosophy than economic theory, but if Ameristar, Pinnacle, et. al. are going to enjoy protected-oligarchy status, the citizens of Missouri ought to get more than an extra percentage point of tax from those sinecures. If voters are being asked to slam the door in the face of prospective casino developers (such as one in Cape Girardeau), then existing operators ought to reciprocate by agreeing to a new tax rate that's not one but several points greater.

As it stands, the best-case estimate is that the 1% increase will bring an extra $156 million per year to state and local kitties. Ameristar's riverboats alone represented $117 million in gaming-tax revenues last year. Missourians will have to weigh the $156 million bird in the hand against the bird-in-the-bush economic impact that one or more additional casinos would represent. For once, I'd take the bird in the bush.

Correction: Yesterday, I passed along a Center for Responsive Politics assertion that presidential campaign donations from the defense industry favored Sen. John McCain. According to OpenSecrets.org, it's the other way around and they've got the numbers to back it up. (It seems to have more to do with longstanding resentment of McCain among defense contractors than with enthusiasm for his opponent.)

Plaza (the other one) & Gold Spike dispatches

Tue, 21 Oct 2008 18:12:00 -0700

According to the grapevine, El-Ad Properties' Plaza megaresort is not only a "go," but Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs are likely financiers. That is, if El-Ad and partner Nochi Dankner kick in more equity (I'm hearing $150 million), having exuberantly overspent on the old New Frontier site.

If the deal goes through, Goldman Sachs will have its fingers in quite a few Vegas pies. One of its beards ... sorry, I meant to say "affiliates," holds 40% of the Las Vegas Hilton and wields veto power over capital-intensive decisions there. Another octopus arm of Goldman owns Carl Icahn's former ACEP properties, including the Stratosphere. So Las Vegas has a pretty big stake in Goldman's continued financial health.

Up in downtown, The Siegel Group continues apace with its makeover of what used to be Las Vegas' dodgiest casino, the Gold Spike. A detailed set of plans is on file, complete with color swatches. I'm hard-pressed to read the document without my magnifying glass, but the exterior will get a complete face lift, there will be cabañas by the pool, and -- so I'm told -- a new neon sign is in the works. Enjoy it while you can: Word is that Siegel will run the Spike 2.0 for about five years, then demolish it in favor of something new.

Even so, that will have been 1,000% more than do-nothing Tamares Group has accomplished with the remaining casinos and motels it agglomerated from Jackie Gaughan. And since Tamares emerged from the shadows to challenge El-Ad's Plaza plans (touting a phantom $100 million renovation of its own), how much longer can the Nevada Gaming Control Board maintain the fiction that Tamares is merely a "passive landlord" that does not need to be licensed?

Speaking of the inert, what's the matter with Ameristar Casinos these days? Since the death of CEO Craig Neilsen and the sacking of John Boushy, the company hasn't done much except fire a slew of Chicago-area employees. Ameristar has hunkered down, seemingly in hopes that someone will buy it and put the present leadership [sic] out of its misery. Forward movement at Ameristar -- even with several growth opportunities in view -- appears to be nil.

On the other hand ...

Mon, 25 Aug 2008 18:01:00 -0700

... if Illinois casinos are sucking wind (which they are), why hasn't this redounded more to the benefit of neighboring states? For instance, it looks like Indiana had a good July, but once you back out two new racinos, a 2% gain turns into an -11% retreat from last year's numbers.

And the northern Indiana boats ought to be doing better, even if Horseshoe Hammond's revenues (-18%) were depressed by a temporary closure and Boyd Gaming's beleagured Blue Chip (-40%) is a drag anchor on the regional average. Still, a -15.5% year/year comparison -- even with those two factors taken into consideration -- doesn't suggest floods of nicotene-deprived gamblers storming the gangways.

Only Majestic Star, of all unlikely vessels, had a revenue-positive July. Year to date, Ameristar Casinos is doing the best of any single company, which makes its recent decision to run up the white flag and sack 244 employees, fretful over a newly expanded Horseshoe Hammond, look doubly defeatist. Current Ameristar management just doesn't look like they're in it for the long haul (read "not cut out for it" or "lack the stomach for it").

A change of brand, to Horseshoe, isn't doing the trick -- yet -- for Harrah's Entertainment's Glory of Rome. The glamorously named Horseshoe Southern Indiana (formerly Caesars Indiana) is the only casino in the Hoosier State's southern reaches to post negative revenue comparisons for every month of 2008. The others either swing like weathervanes or, in the case of Casino Aztar, improved dramatically with a change in management.

If French Lick isn't licked, it appears to have crested. The turnaround at Casino Aztar (currently under state trusteeship) blunted its revenue growth, as did the debut of the Indiana Live and Hoosier Park racinos. Until the economy improves, it looks like it's maxed-out at $8.5 million-$9 million per month.

Missouri is another puzzle, down 3% once the effects of Pinnacle Entertainment's nascent Lumiere Place are subtracted. The St. Louis market, closest to Illinois, was -8%, while Kansas City -- the market with the least to gain from Illinois' troubles -- was up 2%. Go figure.

All companies except Harrah's had a revenue-positive July, even Isle of Capri Casinos. Harrah's lost market share in St. Louis and Kansas City, and Ameristar gained in both markets. (See previous comments about unwarrantedly panicky Ameristar execs.)

And see them again once we note that Ameristar had the best July of any publicly traded company in Iowa, +3%. (Harrah's and Penn were flat, Isle down almost 6%.) Ameristar had the third-highest performing casino in the market, trailing Harrah's Horseshoe-branded racino and the Prairie Meadows track. A good month at the tracks offset a flat one on the riverboat, making Iowa revenue-positive for the month.

This was the first full month of year-over-year comparisons for Isle's newest casino, in Waterloo, which was down over 13%. Wow. The bloom went off that rose fast. The previous Isle regime's business model of growing revenues by opening more and more casinos is well and truly out of gas.

Isle's Bettendorf casino, however, was the only one of the company's quartet of Hawkeye State riverboats to increase revenue in July. Could it be ... the Illinois smoking ban coming into play? I'm going to opt for Occam's Razor and say, "Yes."

Kansas, Round 1: It's Harrah's, Penn

Fri, 22 Aug 2008 17:54:00 -0700

Score one victory each for Harrah's Entertainment and Penn National Gaming in the first round of casino concessions awarded in Kansas today (with Round 2 to follow in a month). But there's really only one winner ...

.... and it's Harrah's, which got the Sumner County contract and, with it, the Wichita market. Penn National must settle for the concession prize of Cherokee County.

Big deal. Penn had no competitors for that market and -- keeping that in mind -- two of the seven state arbiters voted against Penn. Perhaps that's because Penn had previously sulked that it might pull out of Cherokee County if it didn't get the Sumner concession as well. Announcing that it was going to scale back its Cherokee County investment and dribble it onto the market in piecemeal fashion (fearful of a nearby tribal casino) probably didn't endear Penn to the Lottery Gaming Facility Review Board, either.

Even today, Penn's spokesman was still threatening that the company might not go through with the casino Kansas just handed it. That's unbecoming conduct from one of the few cash-rich casino companies at the moment.

Small wonder Penn's Sumner proposal garnered only one vote of support. Which isn't to imply Harrah's gets the Wichita market out of spite or default. (There was, after all, a third contender.) Board members were impressed by the proposed amenities in Harrah's $535 million-560 million proposal and by the site's proximity to Wichita.

Probably the most attractive criterion was that the state's first-year revenue projections for Harrah's, while lower than the company's own, were the highest for any of the three proposals -- 48% more than those for Penn and 44% higher than for Marvel Gaming.

Marvel, which has local ties, particularly to the Binion family, says it's keeping its powder dry. No wonder: If Penn decides to take its ball and go home, Marvel (which got two votes to Harrah's four) appears to have made a good enough impression on the review board that it could make a strong run at Cherokee County, if the opportunity arose -- and the cost of entry would be a great deal lower there.

View the complete set of proposals here.

Recommendation for the weekend: The new suspense drama from Claude Lelouch, Roman de Gare.

Karaoke fans, rejoice! As reported here, earlier (and now official), a singalong version of Mamma Mia! opens on Aug. 29. Presumably smarting from hearing Dark Knight this and Dark Knight that, Universal Studios' press release gets in some passive-aggressive jabs on behalf of its $330 million-grossing musical, noting "is now the highest grossing film of 2008 in the U.K., Austria, Greece, Hungary, Norway and Sweden." And, just to get one more dig in: "The film still has more than 35 territories in which to open." Meow!!!

False alarm: If you got an e-mail alert about a Philadelphia-related S&G posting, but couldn't find it, it's temporarily on hold, pending some new wrinkles in the story. Then there are latest Illinois/Iowa/Missouri/Indiana revenue comparisons and ... and ... and ...

Stupid Ameristar tricks

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 16:32:00 -0700

So your lucrative, big-ass casino company is costing headaches -- and money -- for a Chicago tax preparer because of a single-digit difference between your toll-free number and his. Which means he has to waste time fielding calls from thick-fingered (and, in some cases, thick-headed) patrons.

So, if it's true that Mr. Refund "sometimes pretended to be an Ameristar employee, answering the phone as 'Mr. Ameristar,' pretending to take hotel reservations, asking customers for personal information and credit card numbers or telling callers that Ameristar hotels had burned down," one can't entirely blame him. (I've had the same phone number for over nine years and still get wrong-number calls, over and over.)

Anyway, what does Ameristar Casinos do but sue the poor S.O.B. to wrest his 1-866 number away from him? Ridiculous! Besides, had Ameristar accepted the solution that Mr. Refund says he offered the company, it would have cost Ameristar far less than the contentious route it's taken.

This is easily Ameristar's dumbest move since it opened the short-lived Reserve (now Fiesta Henderson) 10 years ago.

Case Bets: MGM Mirage, Ameristar, Penn Nat'l

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 11:20:00 -0700

It almost goes without saying right now that any earnings report is going to come in slightly below Wall Street's consensus. That's just the way the dice are bouncing these days. Such is the case with MGM Mirage, where Strip revenues are down 6% year/year, but JP Morgan finds some pleasant surprises in the Beau Rivage and MGM Grand Detroit numbers.

The Strip results also bear out what Majestic Research has been diligently reporting all along -- a separation between MGM's highest-tier properties, Bellagio and Mandalay Bay, which continue to ascend to the top (+14.4% at M'Bay) while the others lag, "especially the lower end." MGM's buyout of Mandalay Resort Group looked better on paper than the Harrah's Entertainment/Caesars Entertainment one because MGM's risk was spread between all price categories, including the bargain niche. Who could have foreseen this turn of events?

But there are glimmers of light at the end of the tunnel, particularly with regard to convention bookings. Also, CityCenter looks to be $1.65 billion closer to closing that $3 billion gap in its financing.

Ameristar cutting comps. It's hardly "death spiral marketing," but Ameristar Casinos' response to a below-expectations earnings report is to start whacking away at comps, "as they now believe incremental revenue growth via promotional expenses is no longer prudent." Expect to start feeling it this summer and even more so in Oct.-Dec., eventually returning to '07 levels. A big springtime promotional push (+30%) didn't produce significantly improved results, hence the rollback.

Still, with Harrah's rolling out a gargantuan new, $550 million riverboat in the Hammond, Ind., market this hardly seems the time for Ameristar to be playing possum, raising again the question of whether the fellows at the top are in it for the long haul. Also, Ameristar is holding the line (in terms of revenue, less so in cash flow) pretty well in all its markets except Black Hawk, Colo. (-10%), so why the apparent defeatism? The company was sufficiently aggressive to make capital improvements to several of its flagship properties. Ergo, the sudden volte-face comes as a surprise.

Management also says that $20 million in payroll, in the form of 394 jobs, has walked the plank. The brunt of the cuts fell upon Ameristar's East Chicago boat, yet another move that seems to wave the white flag. Heck, if you went by the Ameristar Web site, you'd be forgiven for thinking that property doesn't even exist.

A hotel tower in Black Hawk has also been moved to the back burner, but the Colorado market's future is so clouded that Ameristar's decision is prudence, pure and simple. While revenue and profit expectations have been revised downwards, increases of 3% and 11% respectively are expected next year.

JP Morgan analysts are also bullish on the stock because, as they note, Penn National has "dry powder" in the form of as much as $1.475 billion in breakup fees from its aborted LBO. The expectation that Penn has Ameristar in its sights "will likely drive ASCA higher as investors speculate on a potential transaction."

Speaking of Penn ...

Less room at the top. With former Harrah's COO Tim Wilmott aboard as president/COO of Penn, that left Leonard De Angelo, the company's executive VP of ops, on the outside looking in. Wilmott was quite a catch for Penn after he left Harrah's as part of an executive exodus. But it seems that, in order to give Wilmott a portfolio commensurate with his stature, De Angelo was rendered rendundant. Been there, done that. Mr. De Angelo, you have my sincere sympathies.

Ola, Amigo!

Mon, 04 Aug 2008 14:38:00 -0700

As of yesterday, I'm a newly minted Amigo card holder, having joined Station Casinos' spinoff players club for its Fiesta properties. (Chalk up a very modest victory for Fiesta's spirited marketing efforts.) Why Station, having put nearly a decade of effort into building up Boarding Pass, went and pulled it from the two Fiestas in favor of a new card without any brand equity ... well, that's a puzzler.

Perhaps its a way of repositioning the Fiestas for sale, though this is a heckuva time to be peddling assets, even if Station has a trainload of debt to pay down. If that's the case (and I'm 101% speculating here), Station wouldn't be the only company in town to discover that it missed the boat when it came to offloading non-core assets.

Whatever the case, I now have $6.63 in "Samurai Master" winnings to show for my shiny new players card. Yup, "whale" is my middle name.

But what to make of Fiesta Henderson? An "Amigo" here and an El Pollo Loco there, and it's still about as Latin as Nelson Mandela in a sombrero. In the older part of the casino floor the African decor ill-advisedly chosen by original owner Ameristar Casinos is still luxuriating about at every turn. It's not hard to see some of the reasons why, in its original incarnation as The Reserve, this was a rare Ameristar mega-goof, one which has apparently scared the company off the Vegas market to this day.

When it opened, in early 1998, The Reserve was operating in the shadow of Sunset Station (which was also bigger, more fashionable, and a lot closer to where the people were). Even by locals-casino standards of that time, The Reserve had a small casino floor, rendered dark and claustrophobic by the Trader Horn design scheme, with its big fake trees and heavy canopies. Station has considerably enlarged the place and substantially upped the number of amenities. The Station-built side is airier and more appealing, if visually nondescript.

If you look at it from Station's standpoint, with two flagship properties on the Boulder Strip, it made sense not to knock themselves out re-doing The Reserve. They were endeavoring the best of a bad situation: agreeing to take a dud casino off the hands of Craig H. Neilsen so that Station could make a quick getaway from Missouri, where Ameristar assumed control of Station's scandal-brushed riverboats. So what's now Fiesta Henderson arrived on Station's doorstep as sort of a red-headed stepchild and the trick was to make it thrive without eating into business at favored sons Sunset or Boulder Station.

As for the "Fiesta" brand, it was one that George Maloof had grown into marquee value up in North Las Vegas. Unfortunately, Station didn't seem to know what to do with it after buying Maloof out, so now "Fiesta" is just a means of designating casinos that don't rate the "Station" moniker but which are a healthy cut above a Wildfire or a Lake Mead Lounge, to say the least.

So I'm left figuring out where Fiesta Henderson fits into the grand scheme of things. If Arizona Charlie's Boulder has gotten too dingy for you, I can definitely see the appeal. But there's no question that nearby Sunset Station is the infinitely superior casino-hotel product, unless you crave a more a laid-back experience, away from the teenybopper crowd, in which case Fiesta Henderson might float your boat.

Kudos to Fiesta management, by the way, for recycling all the used paper from its bingo rooms. The question for other casinos in town is: Why aren't you doing the same?

Speaking of themed casinos, former bargain-casino mogul Gary Primm is back in the news these days, as though to remind us who we have to thank for New York-New York, home of -- among other things -- the Strip's most dysfunctional sports book. (You have to sit in the slot stools on the other side of the corridor to see the TV screens without requiring the services of a chiropractor.)

MGM Mirage is in the process of effecting an upgrade on the property, one of several they've had to perform in order to gradually de-Primm-ify it. NY-NY was far from the worst of the hyper-themed casinos (Excalibur, anyone?) but it wasn't until the tail end of the cycle, when Paris-Las Vegas was rolled out, that it seemed possible anyone (the late Arthur Goldberg, in this case) could go that route and wind up with something stylish.

Ameristar: What makes sense?

Fri, 01 Aug 2008 14:45:00 -0700

Perhaps this is what happens when you outsource your business coverage to India, but Reuters had a story yesterday positing MGM Mirage and Harrah's Entertainment as two of the likeliest buyers for Ameristar Casinos.

Uhhh, I hate to break this to Reuters, but MGM just came up $3 billion and change short on CityCenter and Harrah's is debt-strapped. So I'd say they've got their hands full. How either one would be able to swing an Ameristar acquisition is an open question. Harrah's also faces redundancy issues, as it already owns riverboats in three of Ameristar's key markets -- Council Bluffs, Iowa, and St. Charles and Kansas City, Mo. Why MGM would feel a sudden hankering for Black Hawk, Colo., plus a brace of casinos in Jackpot, Nev., is even more of a poser.

Reuters' third suggestion, Boyd Gaming, seems a lot closer to the mark. With Echelon temporarily in the deep freeze and Boyd's Blue Chip riverboat leaking market share, a passel of regional casinos in markets where Boyd doesn't currently operate could provide welcome cash flow, shore up the company against its current non-presence on the Strip, and expand the web of properties from which Boyd could funnel players into its downtown Vegas cluster or (eventually) Echelon. Of course, Boyd may still be smarting from a failed Kansas City venture a decade ago, but Ameristar's assets are proven performers.

Besides, it's a company that could use some helmsmanship, having seemed to drift since the demise of CEO Craig H. Neilsen. Although paralyzed from the neck down and often bed-bound (which I've heard resulted in some very unconventional corporate meetings), Neilsen achieved more from the neck up than most able-bodied people do in their entire lifetimes. His successor, ex-Harrah's exec John Boushy, tried to sell the Ameristar people on a change of corporate culture but they didn't want to hear about it. So, given an evident leadership vacuum, a change of ownership makes sense.

Unless Penn National wants to take its $1 billion-plus in "mad money" and go after Ameristar, there aren't too other many potential acquirers abroad in the land. James Packer has already sworn off. Pinnacle Entertainment would rather build than buy. Tribal giant Mohegan Sun has been flexing its financial muscle of late and rates as a longshot candidate (but just came off a wretched second quarter). Beyond that ... who knows?

The Ameristar war begins

Thu, 17 Jul 2008 18:49:00 -0700

Just a quick hit on my way out the door to spend an evening prepping for The Dark Knight by watching Batman Begins ...

Ameristar's in play. No news flash there and, for the life of me, I can't figure out why the Motley Fool thinks MGM Mirage will be the ultimate acquirer. The company doesn't seem particularly interested in regional markets these days and has been pulling back from some of them -- the same outstate-Nevada kinds in which Ameristar currently operates.

On the other hand, as the article points out Crown Ltd. has $5 billion burning a hole in its pocket after the Las Vegas Tower deal went limp. I don't know offhand what the seven-times-cash flow number for Ameristar is, but $5 billion should cover it with room to spare. The Fool lays out a compelling case for how Crown could use Ameristar's properties to funnel customers to Fontainebleau -- much as Harrah's Entertainment did with The Rio, back in the Phil Satre era.

Then again, there's Penn National, which has about $500 million in mad money (after stock buybacks) right now, thanks to the breakup fee from its busted IPO. With another $775 million promised to Penn, it ought to be able to ante up the acquisition fee without breaking a sweat. Ameristar's Missouri properties have been money-spinners and, as the Fool points out, the acquisition of the Ameristar brand would enhance Penn's persistent second-tier image. A combined Penn-Ameristar would give Pinnacle Entertainment a run for its money in St. Louis, and could regain ground being lost to MGM and Harrah's in the greater Chicago market.

Whoever loses needn't feel too bad. The Atlantic City Tropicana is still out there and debtors will probably force a sale of the rag-tag remnants of Columbia Sussex's casino 'empire.' With its market cap languishing around $837 million, Boyd Gaming looks vulnerable and if you're in a thrift-store mood, Isle of Capri's fallen to near-micro-cap status, at $157 million. Then again, you have to figure out how to turn around 'Pile of Debris.' So maybe it's not such a bargain after all.

Ameristar spurned, Wynn rewarded

Fri, 11 Jul 2008 13:17:00 -0700

What's worse than being jilted? Being told you're too ugly to to even date. That's about what happened to Ameristar Casinos, which just got blown off by Crown Ltd. Then again, look at James Packer's American holdings and pending acquisitions (and don't forget the Vegas Tower, aka Crown Las Vegas), and if's got an overarching strategy -- as opposed to speculative stabs here and there -- it's not easy to discern.

Packer's about to tap into a nice revenue stream with that Pennsylvania racino. But not only do the two Cannerys look a bit down-market in his portfolio, it's the worst possible moment to be entering the Las Vegas locals market, what with Boulder Strip and North Las Vegas down 30% in May. Ameristar is a steady performer with solid fundamentals and no Vegas exposure (an asset in this topsy-turvy market). Packer could do a lot worse and, in the case of the Vegas Tower, already has.

A nearly 100% increase in Macao operating income sent Wynn Resorts stock through the roof in after-hours trading, up 15%. That stock buyback program isn't going to get Wynn as much bang for its 1.7 billion bucks, but if the price keeps ascending like this, management won't mind, I'm sure. Analysts Larry Klatzkin and David Katz take opposing stances on just how much upside Wynn has at the moment. Whatever the case, the Street has punished Steve Wynn in the past for not sugarcoating the truth. Yesterday he told it what it didn't what to hear -- and was rewarded for doing so. That's more like it.

Gaming stocks got you down? (Robin Farley confirms what I feared -- that we're in the worst market in over a decade.) And while those of on the "Vegas Gang" were thinking that the diversification of the Strip's income stream was its bulwark, analyst Nick Danna says otherwise: "Their reliance on nongaming revenue is really hurting them," as consumer purse strings tighten. He also adds his voice to the chorus of analysts who warn buyers off Vegas-centric stocks.

Take comfort in the fact that "the feel-good movie of the credit crunch" (adapted from the best show in Vegas) in less than a week away.

Harrah's: Digging to China

Fri, 23 May 2008 17:59:00 -0700

Given the recent freeze-out on new casino operators in Macao, executives at Harrah’s Entertainment might as well be sporting T-shirts that read, “I spent $577.7 million in Macao and all I got was this lousy golf course.” And, in light of Harrah’s considerable debt load, CEO Gary Loveman will have the unenviable task of advising tight-fisted co-owners TPG and Apollo Management what to do next with their expensive piece of Chinese real estate.

They could gamble on hunkering down for a few years, taking a low near-term return while waiting for Macao supremo Edmund Ho’s successor to possibly liberalize the enclave’s gaming regime, admitting new corporate players. Or Loveman could try to peddle it around -- probably at a loss, seeing as the land can’t be rezoned for gambling and he’s dealing from a position of weakness.

(A third option, whereby Harrah’s acts as a passive hotel operator as part of a joint venture in which Wynn Resorts or MGM Mirage owns the casino just seems too transparent and disingenuous to get past the current regime, IMO. It’d be obvious a subversion of the “three-plus-three” arrangement, turning it into 3 + 3.5.)

The fate of the golf course is a pressing question only because Harrah’s latest “Consolidated Summary of Operations” contains some scary-looking numbers. When 1Q08 is compared to 1Q07, interest expense has increased threefold (from $185.8 million to $557.6 million). Pile on $211.3 million in early retirement of debt – to reduce those interest payments – and an 11% decline in income from operations and it’s quite a jolt to the balance sheet. In the 1/28/08-3/31/08 period, combined income of $445.5 million was negated (and them some) by $679.2 million in interest expense and early debt retirement.

Then there’s the matter of the shuffling of properties between Harrah’s Entertainment and Harrah’s Operating Co. According to one analyst, it works like this ...

Harrah's Las Vegas, The Rio, the Flamingo, the A.C. Harrah's and Showboat Atlantic City, Harrah's Lake Tahoe, Harvey's and Bill's Lake Tahoe are going into the Entertainment portfolio, to be followed by Harrah’s Laughlin and Paris-Las Vegas. But then Bill’s, Harvey’s and Harrah’s Lake Tahoe, and Showboat are re-shuffled into the operating company.

(What? No mention of Bally's Las Vegas? Hmmmmmmmm. Why does the word "implosion" keep bouncing through my brain?)

In an excellent analysis, Amy Calistri writes, “Reducing interest expense, through the reduction of debt, has to be at the heart of this accounting tangle.” In other words, Harrah’s is positioning itself for a big sell-off, fleeing the Tahoe market and reducing its high Atlantic City exposure, already worsened by good business at Harrah's Chester. Trouble is, Calistri goes on, casino valuations aren’t what they used to be and potential buyers might still find credit scarce.

(The problem with operator consolidation is that it’s taken a lot of potential buyers off the table – no more Argosys out there -- although Ameristar Casinos needs to rack up some debt to reduce its profile as a takeover candidate. Penn National is in a buying mood but, with its private-equity buyout threatening to unravel, it’s got hassles of its own.)

As for the cheese-paring moves that customers are reporting at Harrah’s Strip properties, Calistri warns that “cost cutting and efficiency will only help [Harrah’s] at the margins ... Indeed, Harrah's biggest hurdle toward profitability over the near term is likely to be undoing the debt associated with their acquisition.”

Galaxy Entertainment's Starworld project, Macao

Which is why when analysts float the idea of Harrah’s buying Galaxy Entertainment as a quick means of entry into Macao, I’m tempted to employ one of my Mom’s favorite retorts: “Using what for money?” Galaxy has its problems (like basically learning the casino business on the job) but with no new gaming concessions on the Macanese horizon, its value just shot up considerably.

And then there’s the little detail of a $2.8 billion (with a ‘B’) tribal court judgment against Harrah’s that, if it continues to stand up (much data here), will lumber the company with even more debt and interest. The verdict isn’t really Harrah’s fault: The case dates back to when Arthur Goldberg was alive and running Park Place Entertainment, which became Caesars Entertainment, which was bought by Harrah’s Entertainment, which is contemplating changing its name to … Caesars Entertainment.

It’s a good thing Apollo and TPG hung onto Loveman, just in case their casino acumen is on par with Apollo’s retail acuity. Earlier this month, Apollo vassal Linens ‘n Things filed for bankruptcy in what Bloomberg called “the biggest leveraged buyout failure since credit-market disruptions began last summer,” and what one analyst characterized as “an utter and complete disaster.” The company will close 20% of its stores, leaving 2,500 people unemployed.

Apollo’s exposure is only (“only”) $260 million, meaning that others, primarily General Electric, are holding most of the bag on this debacle. And maybe the timing wasn’t so good for taking real estate franchisor Realogy Corp. private for $8.5 billion, either. (Bloomberg says $6.6 billion.)

And don't forget about Harrah’s unraveling international strategy, which was ill-timed at best and possibly a total bust. But that’s a topic for another time ...

A.C. Trop to go begging?

Mon, 17 Mar 2008 12:14:00 -0700

You have to wonder after reading this story, which suggests that -- out of a field of two-dozen potential suitors for the Atlantic City Tropicana -- virtually everyone is heading for the tall grass. Or maybe it's an en masse fake-out and some "surprise" bids will sneak across the transom at 4:59 p.m. EST.

To get a recurring annoyance out of the way, I don't know why reporters keep dragging Harrah's Entertainment into this. With four casinos on the Boardwalk already, Harrah's would undoubtedly stir antitrust concerns if it made a play for the biggest hotel in the market. As for MGM Mirage, does anyone seriously think it's got the the time or the interest in bothering with the Trop when it's got a $5 billion dollar Atlantic City project of its own on the drawing boards?

Mohegan Sun has taken a powder and it looks as though Pinnacle Entertainment (whose Boardwalk megaresort project is currently in abeyance) is doing the same. Colony Capital's Owen Blicksilver is doing his usual "no comment" thing, and most everyone else (Cordish Cos., Ameristar, the Bashaw/Barr duo) is following suit. What's more, The Press of Atlantic City suggests that the Trop's asking price may be in freefall.

True, there's a $950 billion offer on the table from what is aptly described as "a mysterious New York investment group." I'd be be surprised if this particular bid doesn't evaporate upon closer inspection by Bear Sterns, hired to perform due diligence for the State of New Jersey. Plus, the Trop may just be too dilapidated and too damn old to take on right now.

Then again, Columbia Sussex CEO William Yung III might get the courts to enjoin the sale altogether, pending the outcome of his lawsuit against the New Jersey Casino Control Commission. I'm sure the NJCCC's potential can't-sell-the-Trop predicament will cause him no pain, personally. (His bondholders, though, may take a different view, seeing as they're counting on that Trop-sale cash he promised them.)

Ameristar scraps project: "Et tu, Missouri?"

Fri, 22 Feb 2008 13:44:00 -0700

Ameristar Casinos has pulled the plug on $100 million or more in renovations and expansion of its Kansas City riverboat complex, including the addition of a hotel tower, taking a $4.5 million write-down in the process. It cited a combination of factors in its decision, which came during a quarter which saw profits come in 30% below Wall Street expectations.

One factor, of course, the specter of casinos across the state line in Kansas. The other is blow from closer to home. Earlier this week, the Missouri Gaming Commission gave unanimous approval to a 14th casino license. The casino would be in nearby Sugar Creek and so far the only applicant is a Des Moines company, Wild Rose Entertainment.

Ameristar must now pin its hopes on a bill by Missouri House Rules Committee Chairman Shannon Cooper that would cap the number of Missouri casino licenses at 13. In return, loss limits would be repealed. It's a foot race to March 19, when the 14th license will be awarded.

Ameristar execs evinced a sense of betrayal, with CEO John Boushy saying they were "really scratching our heads trying to understand the decision-making criterion being used by the Missouri Gaming Commission." The company fears losing $60 million a year in business to Sugar Creek alone.

With a nod to Wild Rose's plan for a casino costing one-third as much as Ameristar's, company co-chairman Gordon Kanofsky railed at the commissioners: "After requiring and encouraging operators to invest in their properties as they have and then destroy their ability to make a return on that investment by allowing a bare-bones facility in the marketplace, it just doesn’t seem fair."

End of an era? Former Gov. Evan Mecham (R-AZ), impeached 20 years ago, died yesterday. His signal accomplishment was to unilaterally revoke the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, a move that brought opprobrium and boycotts upon the state of Arizona (and did Mecham's use of racially offensive language). Today an African American is the Democratic frontrunner for president and Mecham is virtually forgotten outside Arizona. We've come a long way.