David Mckee's Stiffs & Georges - IGT

F'bleau: Wait 'til 2012; Satre returns

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 13:33:00 -0700

That's basically the message coming out of bankruptcy court, where Fontainebleau ownership requested permission to scrap all conventions and meetings through October 2011. Among many other disclosures in the fast-moving Chapter 11 was the sacking of seven top executives. (A well-kept secret, seeing as the septet had been let go last May.)

At the top of the list was F'bleau President Audrey Oswell. Since being forced out of Caesars Atlantic City by Park Place Entertainment, Oswell's resumé has taken a pummeling. She left Resorts Atlantic City just as Colony Capital was beginning to mismanage it into insolvency, then leapfrogged to Cosmopolitan (foreclosed) and then from the deck of that sinking ship to F'bleau. If it weren't for bad luck, she'd have no luck at all.

Here's hoping Oswell's next employer has steadier financial underpinnings than her last three. (Question for Resorts A.C. lenders: If you give Colony the boot but leave casino boss Nick Ribis in place, have you really solved the problem?)

Matthews out, Satre in: The much-admired Philip G. Satre has taken over as chairman of IGT, where he will no doubt act as a valued counselor to CEO Patti Hart, vouchsafing an insider's perspective on the casino companies with whom she must deal. Satre's ascent could also make for an interesting turn in the war of words between IGT and Harrah's Entertainment, whose CEO and CFO have made it a pastime to trash-talk the slot giant. Will Gary Loveman be so bold in slamming IGT now that his Harrah's predecessor chairs its board?

Bad timing? Despite the Chinese government's speedy flip-flop on access to Macao, the dynamic duo of MGM Mirage and Pansy Ho are mulling both an IPO on the Hang Seng stock exchange and further expansion in the casino enclave. But is this the moment for such aggressiveness? MGM Grand Macao is only beginning to perform up to expectations and the parent company is having to push a $5.6 billion debt payment into 2015.

Case Bets: Corzine, Penn vs. MTR, Pinnacle, Manilow & strippers

Wed, 07 Oct 2009 15:06:00 -0700

Forbidden by New Jersey law from directly contributing to political campaigns, casino companies are making an end run through Virginia. Harrah's Entertainment, Boyd Gaming and IGT are among those funneling campaign cash into a reverse version on the Underground Railroad. No wonder Gov. Jon Corzine (D) is able to carpet-bomb his opponents with advertising, if he so chooses.

Hey, big spender. The New Jersey gubernatorial race may be chump change compared to the cash being expended in the battle over Issue 3, which would permit four Vegas-style casinos in the Buckeye State. This is boiling down to a proxy fight between Penn National Gaming (pro) and racino specialist MTR Gaming (con). You'll recall that the Ohio Supreme Court nixed Gov. Ted Strickland's plan to unilaterally add slots to the state's horse tracks, which might have given MTR a level playing field with Penn.

While I can understand why Penn or Harrah's would be willing to pay 23% in taxes in Iowa or 27% in Kansas, it's mind-boggling that Harrah's would be chomping at the bit in Rhode Island, where the rate is 73%. Oy vey!

A green shoot. The Baton Rouge Business Journal reports that Pinnacle Entertainment is inking contracts to begin driving piles for its Lake Charles project. Called "Sugarcane Bay" and budgeted at $407 million, this is the first positive movement we've seen out of Pinnacle in a while (unless you count its hijinks with the President license up in Missouri). Good on them.

Manilow on the move. The Las Vegas Hilton has confirmed what all suspected: Barry Manilow's contract expires Dec. 30 and will not be renewed. As we reported in Question of the Day, it's nearly a done deal that he will now set up shop at Paris-Las Vegas, whose main showroom has gone long unused.

Good luck trying to get the Vegas constabulary interested if your car is stolen or your home burglarized. They're too busy going undercover to get lap dances. As Richard Abowitz notes, rampant prostitution on the Strip goes unchecked in the meantime. It's an open secret around here, although many of the "working girls" look downright scary, so you have to wonder how they turn tricks, especially in this economy.

Optimism in Macao, euphoria at CityCenter

Tue, 08 Sep 2009 17:33:00 -0700

Relaxation of stringent visa restrictions from Guangdong Province came a full four months sooner than expected, starting Sept. 1. Now, residents will be able to visit Macao once a month instead of quarterly. While this has prompted J.P. Morgan to raise its price target on Las Vegas Sands stock, analysts also fret that Sands may overreact and go pedal to the metal on its unfinished Cotai Strip™ hotels.

Those same analysts are bullish on the manufacturing sector, though. They think casinos will be more willing to reinvest in the slot base as 2009 draws to a close. Also, the onward march of casino expansion means more jurisdictions and facilities to whom IGT, Bally and WMS can peddle their products. They're 'meh' on regional casino operators like Penn National, Ameristar Casinos and Pinnacle Entertainment, due to flattish performance. (Penn could catch a break in Kansas, though I still think Cordish Gaming has that sewn up.)

But that's a rave notice compared to the long face Morgan analysts pull when pondering Boyd Gaming's prospects. They cite the slow-to-recover, promo-driven locals-casino market in Las Vegas ("trickle-down" economics of the worst sort); Atlantic City's critical condition -- "the best-case scenario here is that [Borgata] would do less bad" than most of A.C. -- those blah regional metrics and new competition for the Blue Chip riverboat in Indiana, which had been looking like 2009's feel-good story.

Intriguingly, the prospect of a Strip acquistion is floated in lieu of a 'stalking horse' bid for floundering Station Casinos. Boyd's still got enough unused borrowing capacity it could even swing an acquisition of The Mirage (with money to spare), not to mention some of the lower-hanging fruit, which now includes Planet Hollywood. But if the J.P. Morgan guys are gun-shy concerning Boyd ...

They're over the moon about MGM Mirage's CityCenter: "we are increasingly under the belief that City Center will be a new must-see property for both domestic and international gamers/travelers that should drive solid visitation volumes to the Strip in 2010. We were impressed with the massive 18m-square-foot complex ... a new type of high-end product for the Strip that should garner increased trips. It has a very contemporary feel that is different than anything else on the Strip, with lots of natural light and high ceilings, interesting room product and, for a massive property, ease of getting around from one 'neighborhood' to the next."

More good news comes in the form of a press release from Commerce Casino (in Commerce, Calif.), which rolled out the welcome mat for a group of undoubtedly weary firefighters. A strike force of 30 Bay Area-based firemen is being housed in the casino's hotel, with the casino comping all meals and picking up most of the hotel tab. Let's hope that such civic-mindedness spreads through the industry like -- if you'll forgive the analogy -- wildfire.

In case it matters, "super-starlet" (yes, that's the official term) Holly Madison has been given a 12-month contract extension at Peepshow, so she's obviously earning her pay. Also, I've heard through the grapevine that she and incoming Aubrey O'Day do not get along, so the timing of the Madison announcement should make clear who's got the upper implant in this situation.

"Link" to Nowhere

Tue, 21 Jul 2009 13:49:00 -0700

On and off, over a four-year period, Harrah's Entertainment teased journalists (and, by extension, the public) with hints of a really big project to be announced really soon ... whenever they got around to it, that is. Well, the Harrah's mountain hath labored and produced ... a mouse.

"Project Link" isn't without virtues, even if they're largely negative ones. It isn't another high-end, multi-billion-dollar megaresort. It's not a budget-buster, period. It's not über-expensive food and retail. And it does entail giving modest facelifts to a couple of Harrah's tattier Strip properties: O'Shea's would lose its faux-Dublin façade and the Imperial Palace's Strip frontage (and pagoda roof) would be supplanted with what appear to be enormous LED screens.

It also acknowledges what's long been one of the problems of Harrah's consolidation of the east side of the Strip into one ginormous province. Namely, that to redevelop it in any significant way would involve taking one or more of a string of multi-story cash registers out of business. True, you could start from the back, maybe knock down the IP first, but at some point push comes to shove and a major cash-flow-producing Strip casino (most likely Harrah's Las Vegas) would have to give way. In a sense, the real estate was already too lucrative to be redeveloped.

Arrival at this plan involved acknowledging certain factors that should have been obvious long before CEO Gary Loveman went on a buying spree. For instance, that MGM Mirage/Wynn Resorts-scale megaresorts are a low-ROI proposition. Or that such a creation might impinge on business at ever-growing Caesars Palace. (It never ceases to amaze me that Harrah's spends hundreds of thousands of dollars to determine what, say, Hunter Hillegas could tell them for free.)

Of course, any new resort built in Lovemanville wouldn't have to be high-end/low-return. That's just the industry group-think of our day; that you "justify" the land's cost by superimposing a hella expensive megaresort atop it, then justify that outlay by charging prices that relatively few can afford.

The notion of luring pedestrians off the Strip and down a multi-dogleg side street is an untested notion. Give Harrah's points for thinking outside the box here. It'll mean getting Vegas visitors to break ingrained habits but it could eventually stimulate further off-Strip development.

For all I know, it could be Gary Loveman's longstanding fantasy to own a 600-foot Ferris wheel with an (at least) 200-foot "HARRAH'S" logo lighting up the night sky. But do I believe this is what he had in mind when he supervised the purchase of vast tracts of Koval Lane real estate at top dollar? Not for a moment. Especially not when you consider he's been sweeping it clean of low-rise housing developments that might otherwise have been of income-producing use.

Now, like Gershwin's Porgy, he's got plenty of nuhtin' and nuthin's plenty for him. His projected Ferris wheel will be sitting (as you can see from the rendering) smack in the middle of a wasteland, a void, a whole lotta nowhere. At least the circus can pitch its tents there the next time it comes to town.

It's harder still to believe that this (mini-)master plan was concocted two years ago and kept under wraps until now ... unless it was a before-the-fact, low-budget, "Well, we've got to do something" concession to the development-crippling effect of the LBO. Even so, secrets just aren't that well kept in this town.

Then again, it often seems if Loveman himself does not know what Loveman has in mind. Take for instance, his recent contention that building a Strip megaresort was too big a risk for Harrah's. Not compared to taking on $24 billion in LBO debt it wasn't. And you could build a megaresort and a half for the $5 billion in company value Loveman recently wrote off.

The biggest threat to Project Link may be Loveman -- or rather his short-attention-span style of leadership. While some cunning master plan may be apparent to his inner circle, the leitmotif of Loveman's tenure as CEO has been to jitterbug spastically from one short-lived initiative to another.

Having gotten right up to the threshhold of having to decide what to do with Lovemanville, his trigger finger grew weak. He pulled a U-turn and flung Harrah's into the arms of Texas Pacific Group and Apollo Management, a move with disastrous consequences. (Especially for the consumer, as TPG/Apollo's plan was to gut the company all along.) At least it had the short-term benefit of sparing beloved local institution Battista's Hole in the Wall from Loveman's bulldozers. As with his jihad against revenue-participation games like Wheel of Fortune, Loveman often seems oblivious or (far more likely) indifferent to what customers like or want.

In the two years or so it will require for Project Link to obtain startup capital, the odds are considerably better than 50-50 that Loveman will have lost interest and moved on to something else. If he doesn't, it would be a very pleasant surprise.

More Midwest notes

Tue, 14 Jul 2009 10:46:00 -0700

Continuing a trend of lower-than-projected returns across the Midwest, Iowa's riverboats were flat last month and racinos saw a 5% decline. All major operators lost ground but something is very wrong at Ameristar Casinos, whose Council Bluffs boat was way outside the margin, reporting a 15% decline from last year.

Over in Detroit, in the hardest-hit state in America, general economic collapse is finally eating into the casino bidness. With MGM Grand Detroit off 10% and Motor City down 3%, it took a 24% upward leap in revenues at recently expanded Greektown Casino (above) to keep the market on an even keel. With an 0.4% overall decline in dollars won, Detroit stays within the "flat" classification.

Good time to own IGT. Sitting upon Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn's desk is a bill that could swamp the state with as many as 77,000 video slot machines. As J.P. Morgan breaks down the particulars: "video gaming terminals may be placed in 1) licensed establishments (“any licensed retail establishment where alcoholic liquor is drawn, poured, mixed, or otherwise served for consumption on the premises”), 2) licensed truck stop establishments (“facility that is at least a 3-acre facility with a convenience store and with separate diesel islands and parking spaces for commercial motor vehicles”), 3) licensed fraternal establishments (“location where a qualified fraternal organization regularly meets”), and 4) licensed veterans establishments (“location where a qualified veterans organization regularly meets”)."

Morgan analysts take a less-alarmist position on this change, projecting that no more than 40,000 devices will be installed, over a two-year period starting next year. Still, they like the prospects of International Game Technology, which is predicted to snare 60% of the market, with another 30% equally divided between WMS Industries and Bally Technologies -- a bit of a snub to favorite son WMS, no?

Exit, pursued by a bear market

Fri, 17 Apr 2009 17:39:00 -0700

Aside from the occasional murmur by Wynn Las Vegas prexy Andrew Pascal, executives at Wynn Resorts keep a low (read: invisible) profile. Even the most assiduous follower of the casino industry would have trouble naming Wynn's CFO off the cuff. If you answered, "David Sisk," as of last Monday you'd be wrong. The contours of his golden parachute strongly suggest an involunatry exit, softened by at least $767,000 worth of severance pay, plus a limited-time offer of stock options.

One can't fault the generosity of Mr. Sisk's deal: He's to be paid a year's salary at pre-rollback rates and, from what little information is disclosed, it doesn't appear that he's bound to a non-compete clause. Odd that Wynn would do this without having a successor in the wings. Of course, there are more than a couple of ex-Las Vegas Sands and Harrah's Entertainment executives updating their resumés these days.

"Encore, me no like!" According to Majestic Research analyst Matthew Jacob, customers are having a tizzy over Encore's "chambered" casino layout and gravitating back to more traditional Wynn LV. So what plays in Macao may flop in Vegas, huh? You can't fault El Steve for trying. Jacob is predicting a squishy 1Q09 for Wynn Resorts, compounded by a first-ever patch of adversity at Wynn Macau.

Jacob is also the star of this CNBC segment on the gaming group, politely wiping the floor with Gabelli Global Multimedia Trust's Larry Haverty. The latter's declaration that resiliency in regional casino markets bodes an imminent recovery of Las Vegas, though we all wish it were true, is a textbook instance of 2+2=5.

Barring Atlantic City and the wholly aberrant phenomenon that is Illinois, regional markets have never slumped as badly as Vegas is doing and were much quicker to recover. Regional diversification is a double-edged sword for gaming: It's a valuable hedge against a wipeout in one key market, but it also gives customers that much less incentive to travel to Vegas or the Boardwalk when big-budget casino properties are coming closer and closer to home.

Haverty also goes off the rails vis-a-vis MGM Mirage's Aria and server-based gaming, predicting successful adoption at CityCenter will spur a wave of emulation. Yes, but ... not so fast. First, the economy will have to come firmly out of its present nosedive before casinos contemplate capex spending of that magnitude. Secondly, some of SBG's largest potential consumers -- like Harrah's Entertainment, Station Casinos, Las Vegas Sands and even MGM are so badly in hock that they're in no position to participate in a major replacement cycle. Furthermore, I don't believe International Game Technology expects more than, at most, an initially slow and incremental adoption of SBG -- an infiltration of casino floors, not a blitzkrieg. But if you're looking at IGT as a long-term investment, a drawn-out replacement cycle would probably be a more desirable scenario anyway.

There's nothing in exceptionable in Jacob's half of the interview. His more finely shaded and detailed observations contrast favorably with Haverty's scattergun generalizations. And while I agree with the latter's enthusiasm for Boyd Gaming, it's a mite premature to be toasting Pinnacle Entertainment. If Pinnacle hadn't gotten bogged down in Atlantic City and were making a more appreciable dent in the St. Louis market, then I'd raise my glass without reservation. When Pinnacle was in acquisition mode there were few assets for the taking. By the time that buffet was replenished, Pinnacle's plate was full to overflowing.

Megabucks myths exploded

Tue, 14 Apr 2009 11:22:00 -0700

That $33 million jackpot scored by Reno resident Rachael Renée Romanick highlights two fallacies surrounding progressive slot jackpots. The first is the urban legend that Megabucks always "hits" at the newest casino. (It's a useful myth, seeing how it would motivate slot players to flock to, say, M Resort on the perception that Megabucks was about to go into a "hot cycle."*) After all, Ms. Romanick's big win occurred at lowly Terrible's Rail City, a Sparks casino** that's not only practically unknown outside Washoe County, it's in bankruptcy too.

Second, casino executives ought to quit railing -- pardon the pun -- against revenue-participation games and take a minute to kiss the shoes of IGT. After all, it's the latter who's responsible for paying the jackpot. Imagine the difficulty Ms. Romanick might have collecting from stoney-broke Herbst Gaming (owner of Rail City) ... or any of a number of casino companies whose solvency is currently open to debate.

* -- a term that a former editor of mine unforgettably dubbed "useless voodoo"

** -- Is that Herbst CEO Ferenc Szony doing the voice-overs on the Rail City Web site? It sure sounds like him and Szony loves to put a personal touch on his casino promotions.

Take that, Loveman!

Wed, 28 Jan 2009 16:42:00 -0700

In a resounding "ZING!" to adversary Harrah's Entertainment, its former CEO, Philip G. Satre, has been named to the board of International Game Technology. Harrah's has been trying to herd IGT revenue-sharing games off its casino floors, going so far as to make the preposterous claim that "Wheel of Fortune" lacked popularity. CFO Jonathan Halkyard piled on a few days ago, asserting that slot makers hadn't evolved their product significantly since, oh, about 1935.

Phil Satre, ca. 2003

On the one hand, this could be IGT's way of extending the olive branch to Harrah's. But that would be almost masochistic after Harrah's CEO Gary Loveman dissed IGT's product to IGT boss T.J. Matthews' face in a memorable exchange at G2E.

What's more plausible is that, by signing up with IGT -- upon which Harrah's has essentially declared war -- Satre is tacitly rebuking his former company and lending Matthews additional credibility (not that he needed any). Good luck to the Harrah's people when they try to spin this one.

Casino CEOs get religion?

Wed, 21 Jan 2009 13:45:00 -0700

Industry leaders have had a near-death experience and seen the light ... or so they say. Considering that I paid $12.50 for a (mediocre) Bloody Mary at Encore last week, I'm going to believe "a back-to-basics approach that focuses on delivering a quality at good prices" when it manifests itself on a widespread basis.

Also, the timing of this 'come to Jesus' moment is problematic, seeing as the vast majority of incoming room inventory -- one estimate puts it at 85% -- is aimed at the luxury market. It's difficult to contemplate the looming form of Big Blue (aka Fontainebleau) and not brace oneself for a grinding collision between Supply and Demand.

Big Blue: brace for impact.

To give MGM Mirage CEO Jim Murren his due, he's been walking the walk. Kirk Kerkorian's portfolio of Strip properties has a plethora of value-oriented messages streaming through cyberspace these days. Interestingly, the only non-participant as of this week is Bellagio, so one can surmise nothing other than that Steve Wynn's grand dame continues to do bang-up business.

What's more, Murren endeavors to drive a stake through the Bellagio-is-for-sale talk by telling AP reporter Oskar Garcia that the Bellagio "brand" is underemployed and he's considering sublicensing it overseas (Bellagio Ho Tram anyone?), along with the titular MGM brand. Having set the completion of CityCenter as a do-or-die proposition, Murren openly puts other company assets on the table, including not only the Atlantic City acreage Jeff Simpson recently characterized as "low-hanging fruit" but also undeveloped property in Vegas.

Could this be the end of "Project Z" or even "City Center North"? If anybody foresaw the announcement of CityCenter and its all-in-one-big-gulp development as the moment that would make or break MGM, please step up to collect your Nostradamus Award cum laude.

As for Harrah's Entertainment, when its CFO is saying the U.S. casino market has reached saturation point, I guess that makes it official. Jonathan Halkyard, however, somewhat undercuts his credibility when he decries a "shocking lack of innovation" in slot machines. That's not only deeply unfair, it's an affront to the slot makers, who I've always found to be trying quite hard to innovate. (OK, so there was that addiction to themed slots but it's behind us now, much like collegiate "experimenting" with LSD and lesbianism.)

"I mean if you look at the slot machine, it's basically the same as it was 75 years ago," says Halkyard. By that yardstick, so's the automobile. Ditto the airplane ... or just about any casino game you could mention. It's probably best to write Halkyard's comment off for the hyperbole it clearly is, perhaps meant as another poke-in-the-eye provocation toward IGT and other Harrah's nemeses.

At least Harrah's is trying to keep its marketing messages in step with the era. While I didn't see the magic word Twitter, I'm sure that's the sort of thing Halkyard has in mind. The one company refusing to adjust to the times is precisely the one you'd expect: Las Vegas Sands. Yup, just keep building those big boxes and hang in there until the economy conforms to your strategy, not vice versa.

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss

Fri, 16 Jan 2009 18:17:00 -0700

When I wrote yesterday that the spirit of Bill Yung still seemed to be afoot at the Tropicana Las Vegas, I didn't know the half of it. Mike Weatherford has the skinny on the shuttering of Folies Bergere and it boils down to a payroll dump. Folies performers were Trop employees and Raw Talent Live or whatever show with whom Trop President Ron Thacker is dickering would 'four-wall' the Tiffany Theater, placing Thacker in the role of landlord: collecting the rent and doing maintenance as needed.

Combine this with projected capex spending of about $6 million a year (some of which may be coming from money budgeted for Folies) for the next five years -- at a time when the Trop is falling further and further behind the competition -- and a prolonged Scott Butera regime is beginning to look like a bleak prospect. Here's hoping the bankruptcy court clears the way for an asset sale and soon. What the Trop needs is someone who can do a reverse-Yung: Buy it at a depressed price and use the money thereby saved to spruce the old gal up or, better yet, do a partial tear-down-and-rebuild job on her.

You came to Nevada but it was closed. Not surprisingly, Gov. Jim Gibbons' new budget would balance the ledger by socking it to visitors and literally stealing from the indigent. As for casinos that haven't collected on dishonored markers -- too bad. Gibbons wants them to pay taxes on the duff debts forthwith. If all that doesn't work, Midnight Jim could take a cue from Circuit City and hold a 'going out of business' sale. Speaking of which ...

Progressive Gaming, R.I.P.: The phone is off the hook and the vultures are circling Progressive's corporate HQ. It appears that Progressive's debts will be settled, to some extent, by holding a fire sale of its best intellectual property to "a major slot machine manufacturer." Could it be minority owner IGT? Naaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!

In a sidebar, it's reported that Black Gaming has one month to avoid defaulting on nearly $200 million in debt. It appears that CEO Randy Black Sr. was so busy shoveling money into his own pockets that he missed an interest payment yesterday. Say what you will about Black, he's definitely got his priorities. The "unbundling" of the Strip shows every sign of trickling down to markets like Primm and Mesquite, where Black has enjoyed a near-monopoly for most of the past decade (Mesquite, not Primm).

Prospective buyers could include guys like Stephen Siegel. Snicker if you like at his plan to create "synergy" between the Gold Spike downtown, the obscure Barcelona and the Mt. Charleston Hotel. But Siegel Group Nevada has been quietly rolling up a sizeable bundle of assets, has a reputation for reinvestment and, as I've said before, has done more with the Gold Spike than Tamares Group ever did with it or any of Tamares' other Downtown properties. It also sounds like Siegel's got a knack for marketing, itself no small asset in this economy.

Harrah's LV renews Rita Rudner's contract ... signaling the Apocalypse?

21

Wed, 31 Dec 2008 11:39:00 -0700

That's the number of predictions for 2009 issued by Spectrum Gaming Group, an Atlantic City-based outfit. They are, in no particular order:

• Advancements in technology that impact revenues and cut costs will continue to be attractive to operators even in an economic downturn.

Continued ...

• ... conversion of racetracks to racinos, as well as non-gaming expansions to existing racinos.

• ... elimination of jobs, both through cuts and attrition.

• ... moratorium on development of big-box gaming resorts due to economic downturn.

• Convenience-based gaming continues to achieve better year-over-year results than destination-based gaming.

• Corporate and property debt restructuring in wake of declining revenues.

• Eastern European countries will increase their efforts to meet EU regulations, including smoking bans.

• Gaming companies increase efforts to export their brands globally.

• Gaming equipment manufacturers continue to invest in games that appeal to a younger demographic, including lotteries, bingo and server-based technology.

• Increased legislative acceptance of allowing the deduction of issued electronic promotional gaming credits from the gross revenue tax/fee calculation.

• Increased use of electronic games, including the emergence of scalable electronic table games in which players at different locations on the floor wager on a single outcome.

• Increasing alliances between commercial gaming operators and outside investors, as well as between commercial and tribal operators.

• Internet gambling in U.S. will be a hot federal issue for the new administration and Congress; gaming companies will fund lobbying efforts on both sides.

• Major gaming operators commence deleveraging by selling off properties to emerging operators.

• More pronounced shift in market share among suppliers as operators attempt to shift away from IGT participation games.

• Native American tribal gaming revenue estimates remain on track to surpass U.S. commercial gaming totals.

• Prices for hotel rooms, shows and food and beverage will return to lower levels at large gaming resorts as operators need to fill their properties.

• Slow but continual advancement toward server-based gaming, as operators remain skeptical as to the potential financial returns on investment.

• States consider expanding or legalizing casino-style gaming to help fill state budget gaps.

• Support from China to ease visa restrictions, increasing flow of visitors into Macau.

• Uncertainty in various European countries concerning regulation, thus increasing cases being referred to the European Court of Justice.

We'll have to check back in a year, God willing, and see how clear Spectrum's crystal ball proved to be. There's nothing on that list that strikes me as off the beam and much of its seems dead on target. The only "WTF?" comes courtesy of a Spectrum exec who told a reporter, "In times like this, it's not like these are company-specific problems that can be attributed to some glaringly bad decision by the company."

I respectfully beg to differ. Choosing unreliable and/or overcommitted business partners (Boyd Gaming) was a decision. Opening in far-flung markets while your core properties were losing market share (Isle of Capri) was a decision. Taking on preposterous amounts of debt (Harrah's Entertainment) or simply assuming more debt than your cash flow and lavish spending tendencies can support (Station Casinos) were decisions. Trying to build metaresorts all at once (Boyd, MGM Mirage) was a decision. Rashly demolishing the Atlantic City Sands and thereby leaving yourself with empty, non-revenue-producing land (Pinnacle Entertainment), that's a decision.

Launching major projects that aren't fully capitalized (Las Vegas Sands, Cosmopolitan, Majestic Star) is a decision. Stubbdornly jeopardizing the license of the property that generates 40% of your cash flow (Columbia Sussex) is a decision. Making not one, but two major acquisitions at a time when your cash cow -- slot routes -- is giving less milk and then overpaying for some of the new assets (Herbst Gaming) is a decision.

Opening a $2.3 billion, years-in-the-making megaresort at the nadir-to-date of the economy (Wynn Las Vegas)? Now that, that was not a decision. That's playing the hand you were dealt.

"Two years away."

Wed, 17 Dec 2008 13:32:00 -0700

Remember how server-based gambling (i.e., downloadable slots) has forever been "one year away"? Not anymore. From Monday's Las Vegas Business Press: "[Stiefel Nicolaus analyst Steven] Wieczynski said server-based gaming seems to be two years away from full commercialization."

Seems everyone's going to let MGM Mirage be the guinea pig with all-server-based Aria and then (maybe) take the plunge.

But, hey, they've gonna have it in Cambodia soon. Book your flight.

Mountain labors, brings forth mouse

Mon, 24 Nov 2008 13:14:00 -0700

Liz Benston has an excellent précis of the bells and whistles on display this year at G2E. The money quote is: Some Nevada casinos offer Bally’s iView — a small screen below the game that displays a gambler’s account and offers casino promotions — and will soon offer touch-screen games from IGT that allow players to order cocktails, view and print coupons and make show reservations.

Try to get a slot exec to tell you what server-based gaming has to offer the player and you can't much past this. (IGT's Ed Rogich, to be fair, went a bit further, but our conversation was off the record.) And the bad news for manufacturers is that these kinds of targeted convenience-and-marketing services are already being enabled without having to wait for networked gambling. (Four words: Las Vegas Gaming Inc.)

So, after years of server-based gambling being the Great & Powerful Oz, is this what it's come to be? (Remember how you had to sign away the movie rights to your first-born child to gain admittance to the triple-secret downloadable-slot booths at past G2Es?)

Call me crazy, but slot boffins need to talk less about how networked gambling is going to make life easier for casino owners -- who can't afford to go "all in" with the technology anymore -- and more about why John Q. Public should be wanting, nay, demanding it. Because, in an economy where casino companies are paralyzed by debt, significant implementation of server-based gambling isn't likely to happen without a big push from the players themselves.

The R-J's roster of reluctant bloggers is about to expand to include Howard Stutz. Or so it would appear. I came across a link to an alleged Stutz blog this weekend but only found a head shot and an otherwise blank page. Those crackerjack Stephens Media IT people must have errantly made a beta site "live." Meanwhile, the paper's answer to Harry Hope from The Iceman Cometh (and its newest blogger) used his Sunday column to -- you guessed it -- make fun of blogs. Darn those horseless carriages!

I hate G2E

Fri, 14 Nov 2008 11:35:00 -0700

Allow me to clarify.

The annual Global Gaming Expo is a great and good thing, bringing together industry members, vendors and academics from the four corners of the globe. You see the newest -- and oftimes the strangest -- products on offer. Many are all the more tantalizing for not having received regulatory approval -- placing them tantalizingly out of reach. I'll confess to a childlike fondness for the huge table game with the dome under which plastic horsies go 'round and 'round in a sort of mock Kentucky Derby. Silly, yes, and an absolutely pointless wager, but G2E doesn't stint on oddball entertainment value.

The sheer amount of brainpower that is directed into that outwardly frivolous activity known as "gambling" is an awesome sight to behold, especially when crammed into the Las Vegas Convention Center.

The conference tracks are an embarrassment of riches (especially when a speaker makes a particularly egregious faux pas). It's Sophie's Choice to the fourth power to have to select between panels sometimes. Heck, most times. And if there are any detractors of Native American casinos out there, if you subtracted the tribal attendance from G2E and many other industry conferences, they'd either be A) much smaller, B) ghost towns or C) defunct.

Then there's the yearly "State of the Industry" panel, which more recently has been "The Gary & Terry Show," with American Gaming Association President Frank J. Fahrenkopf serving questions to Harrah's Entertainment CEO Gary Loveman and MGM Mirage CEO J. Terrence Lanni. Except that Lanni canceled his 2008 appearance a short while back -- a harbinger of his resignation? IGT CEO T.J. Matthews will also be there, which should be, uh, interesting, especially with Loveman having launched a pogrom against "Wheel of Fortune" and other participation games.

However, there will be "added value" in the form of Ernest Stevens Jr., the Fahrenkopf of tribal gaming, taking his rightful place amidst the panel -- another sign that we've moved past the days when companies like Circus Circus Enterprises actively tried to suppress tribal gaming in neighboring states. (Speaking of Fahrenkopf, he had a cameo in this week's Frontline biography of GOP dirty trickster Lee Atwater, the man who brought you Willie Horton. It included a scene of Atwater spewing bile while Fahrenkopf stood at his left elbow. Whaddya wanna bet FJF wishes he could "disappear" that footage.)

Loveman gets all huffy if you challenge him about stuff (like why he lives in Massachusetts), so that can add to the fun. He's also very difficult to understand sometimes, because he's got the strange habit of swiveling his head constantly from left to right while answering questions, meaning that the microphone ... catches ... roughly ... every ... other ... word.

And yet ...

G2E is an ordeal. It's the Bataan Death March of the casino industry, as we haul ourselves from one end of the exhibit floor (which seems to extend beyond the curvature of the Earth) and back again, then repeat the exercise. Noise, crowds and the relentless pounding of one's feet on thinly-covered cement; it all takes a toll, especially for someone like myself who suffers from the triple whammy of fibromyalgia, osteoarthritis and recurring back trouble. The reams of paperwork one has to plough through beforehand can also drive you to despair.

In short, G2E is not for the faint of heart nor the frail of constitution. With that in mind, I offer 10 survival tips.

• The F&B Pavilion is your friend. Make liberal use of it, especially any free booze you can snag.

• The most important booth is not IGT's but rather the one where they sell the massaging insoles. I bought a pair last year and they were life savers.

• Chair massages. 'Nuff said.

• Sit down. As often as possible. You may not want to get up again, but duty calls.

• Cell phones. Set them on LOUD (as in jet-engine loud). In G2E, no one can hear your phone ring.

• Tchotchkes. The fewer you pick up, the better. The same goes for goodie bags. They'll just weigh you down and make your job harder. Travel light. Except for ...

• Business cards. Pack as many as you think you'll need. Then double it. At minimum.

• Downloadable slots. First, see if you can spot them (last year's bunch were indescribably bland). Then have a drink for every time somebody tells you they're "one year away" from deployment. Sort of like handheld gambling devices. (Remember them? They were The Next Big Thing ... three years ago.) For extra fun, use the term "vaporware" around the Cantor Gaming booth and see what kind of looks you draw.

• Don't play the slots unless you can get a sales rep to set them so they immediately trigger a bonus round. Otherwise you can waste a lot of time. Why they're not set to the bonus round as a matter of course remains a mystery.

• Fowl play. Remember the tic-tac-toe-playing chicken from Atlantic City? See if he has a booth this year. Then try to beat him. If you can, you're a true Master of the Universe 'cause that chicken's got game.

Get buzzed at the Trop. LVA just conducted a poll on casino smells, particularly the sort of piped-in aromas you'll encounter at The Palazzo. Which prompted a reader to ask, "So…… That moldy marijuana smell at the Tropicana is pumped in????? Interesting……"

Well, it'd be one way to get people to want to eat at that buffet.

Winners & Losers

Wed, 05 Nov 2008 13:52:00 -0700

And now the obligatory post-Election, What's-it-all-about-Alfie roundup ...

Culinary Union 1, Casino CEOs O: True, the Culinary tripped all over its own feet in the early going, leading to Democratic caucuses that weren't so much "Barackular" as "debacular." But D. Taylor & Co. backed the winning horse and did it early, which earns some chits down the road, plus they have a new Capitol Hill friend in Rep.-elect Dina Titus. Messrs. Lanni, Loveman, Wynn, Adelson and Trump made a variety of presidential wagers, losing every one.

Ameristar Casinos/Pinnacle Entertainment: They wanted a protected oligarchy in Missouri and now they've got it -- and at relatively little additional tax burden to them.

Slot manufacturers: OK, so Ohio and Maine didn't come through and the Missouri market is frozen. But 15K new slots in Maryland ain't chicken feed. Plus a West Virginia casino expansion that flew under the radar got voted in. Inexplicably, slot stocks traded downward. Stupid Wall Street.

Colorado casinos: They didn't so much "win" as get a hefty lifeline thrown to them by Rocky Mountain State voters who approved 20X higher betting limits, 'round the clock operations, and roulette and craps. (No Sen. John McCain sightings in Cripple Creek yet, though.)

Freedom's Watch: So far F-Double-U is 6-9-1 (with Sen. Gordon Smith [R] of Oregon momentarily in the "tie" column) in its top-priority races. I'm feeling generous and crediting the Adelson front group with "wins" in the case of self-destructing Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-FL), who continued the scummy tradition of predecessor Mark Foley, and in that of Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), who faces a December do-over, thanks to Georgia law. And veering off at the last minute to spend money attacking not-up-for-reelection Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)? Adelsonian political acumen at its finest. Winner? Loser? Let's call it a draw.

Poker: Just when it looked like the poker phenomenon was about to jump the shark, we've got a poker-playing president-elect. I dunno if Ms. Pelosi and Messrs. Reid, McConnell and Boehner cotton to hashing out legislation over cigars, booze and a deck of cards, but they'd better get ready for a whole new kind of "smoke-filled room."

Online Poker: Chances for a repeal of the UIGEA suddenly look a lot better.

Karma: Bearing false witness and serial adultery remain very uncool. But multiple felony counts and assorted other financial malfeasances remain A-OK with voters of both parties. (Hint: If Ted Stevens has to be forcibly removed from office, start practicing the phrase "Senator Palin." Kinda trips off the tongue, don't it?)

Gays & Lesbians: Voters in California stuck it to one of Vegas' most loyal constituencies big-time, passing the hateful Proposition 8. Were Nevada not so socially conservative (although compassionate enough to have legalized medical marijuana a ways back), I'd say we should vote for gay nuptials here, then sit back and gloat as the bucks roll in.

Tom Tancredo and ilk: Even if you abhor George W. Bush, you've got to give it up for his ability to rally Hispanic voters to the GOP standard. (I can't speak for Biloxi-Gulfport or Atlantic City, but Las Vegas can't function without its Latino labor base and casino CEOs know this; that's why immigration is their "third rail" of politics.) I always thought the immigration issue would be a non-starter in this election -- and it was. But the Tancredos of the GOP, by ginning it up in both '06 and early '08, antagonized Latinos, scored an own-goal and eradicated the gains Bush made with this voting bloc. So, in lieu of a prolonged post-mortem, maybe Republicans should just burn Tancredo in effigy and then turn the page.

Gaming's GOP influence: The annihilation of GOP moderates at the national level is largely complete, leaving an electoral map that looks a lot like the Confederacy, plus a horseshoe-shaped chunk of the West. Subtract Mississippi, Louisiana and tribal casinos and you've got slim pickings there. Gambling-friendly Republicans like Govs. Haley Barbour (MS) and Charlie Crist (FL) have made progress, but not easily and not without much expenditure of political capital. It's difficult to see where American Gaming Association boss Frank Fahrenkopf goes within his own party when he needs its support. The casino industry's investment in the GOP has yielded scant ROI.

Gov. Jim Gibbons: With state Sens. Joe Heck and Bob Beers, and Rep. Jon Porter all packed off to early retirement by their constituents, Gibbons suddenly has much less to fear from within his own party two years hence. (Ditto Porter's designs on Sen. Harry Reid's [D-NV] seat.)

Rep. Dean Heller (R-NV): If he opts to challenge Reid -- or Gibbons -- he's now the presumptive frontrunner. (I still think "Gov. Oscar Goodman" has a nice ring to it.)

North Las Vegas Mayor Michael Montandon (R): He's laying the groundwork for an intra-party challenge to Gibbons. Montandon's ably managed growth in NLV and would easily trump Gibbons on the "competence" front. The sudden political demise of Beers, Heck and Porter gives him a clear field of fire.

Tourists: Ever hospitable, Clark County voters gave them the finger, by endorsing a 2%-3% hike in the hotel tax. Thankfully, it's just an advisory vote.

Joe the Player: Winner. Clinton-era tax rates are coming back, which may hurt the "whales" but should be good for the rest of us. The Clinton administration coincided with halcyon years of casino growth, especially in Vegas and on the Gulf Coast. The succeeding eight years were dominated by M&A binges, condomania and a narrowing of the Strip's economic appeal toward the monied elite -- the latter being a very sore point among casino consumers. Vegas-wise, which eight years would you choose?

Jon Ozark: This cardboard dummy was wheeled into Nevada Assembly District 21 by local monied interests, to knock off Asm. Bob Beers -- not be confused with the less-hirsute state Sen. Bob Beers -- for having the audacity to stand up against Steve Wynn, he whose name dare not be pejoratively uttered in Carson City. That much having been accomplished, in the general election Ozark discovered once again that it takes more than a pretty face to win. Good luck in your next district, Mr. Ozark. They say the third one's the charm.

Bible-themed slots

Mon, 06 Oct 2008 13:33:00 -0700

It's no joke. IGT is literally introducing a Noah's Ark-themed slot machine (spotted locally at Station Casinos' Red Rock Resort). Company spokesman Ed Rogich even managed to keep a straight face (apparently) when telling Howard Stutz it "wasn't meant to be biblical." I agree with the Baptist minister who says the game isn't worth getting offended over but is "in poor taste."

But Las Vegas was built on poor taste. It's in our DNA. So, with that in mind, what stories from the Bible would you employ as a slot theme? I'm thinking of maybe a Samson and Delilah game in which the bonus round requires finding which two pillars of the temple have the least structural integrity. Or perhaps a bonus round in which Salome does the Dance of the Seven Veils. The more credits you score, the more veils she drops. (Shhhhhh! Don't tell IGT.)

Oh, the possibilities are endless. The floor is open for nominations.

Landry's vote set; IGT blues

Thu, 25 Sep 2008 15:16:00 -0700

Nov. 3 is the appointed day for Landry's shareholders to vote on CEO Tilman Fertitta's $21/share buyout offer. The stock's had a wild ride lately, hitting bottom at $12.42, following a precipitate dive during what might be called Hurricane Ike weekend. No fool he, Fertitta took advantage of depressed prices to scarf up an additional 400,000 shares. The performance of Landry's huge restaurant portfolio hasn't been stellar of late, but the two Golden Nugget casinos are keeping revenues aloft, providing 43% of the company's total intake.

Although daily newspapers rarely have the luxury of indulging in analysis, the Las Vegas Review-Journal has been dipping a few toes in the analytical waters of late. Noting the Ike Effect on Landry's restaurants, the R-J finds Fertitta between a rock and a hard place: If operated revenes fall below certain benchmarks, Fertitta's financing is imperiled. But if the deal doesn't go through, a re-restructuring of debt is nigh and Landry's probably couldn't meet a margin call. Fertita's own equity contribution to the buyout consists of $90 million in cash and $97 million worth of shares.

A similar story chronicles some of the business challenges that are bedeviling International Game Technology. It doesn't get into why IGT is losing market share to Bally Technologies (which just dodged a bullet from the SEC) and WMS Industries, but it suggests that Wall Street impatience is part of the problem.

IGT is trying to pivot and position itself at the leading edge of server-based slots, something that's not going to yield any short-term results. Depending on where the impending cuts of 500-1,000 IGT jobs fall, it would be unfortunate if their effect was to impair the company's ability to innovate, simply to placate stock analysts.

Resistance not so futile

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 16:54:00 -0700

Lifetimes ago (i.e., the late 20th century), I recall reading an article about International Game Technology in which IGT executives expressed some frustration at having 'only' two-thirds of the Australian market and not the 75% they wanted. Then and more many years thereafter, it seemed as though IGT's Borg-like absorption of every company and market in its path was a pure inevitability.

Times sure have changed, as this analysis of IGT's current predicament makes clear. The only point that begs further elaboration is: Why is IGT having trouble selling replacement machines? If I had to make an educated guess, it's because IGT went whole hog into the themed-slot craze, licensing titles by the trainload. But, as manufacturers discovered, a themed slot with Joe Average game content is just another box on the floor, as far as players are concerned. IGT wasn't the only company that chased that elusive grail but nobody else did it with such gusto.

Small wonder, given IGT's current woes, that Harrah's Entertainment chose this moment to pick a fight over shared-revenue games, specifically "Wheel of Fortune." Even in early '99, when the casinos-vs.-slotmakers acrimony was at its height, nobody dared take on IGT so confrontationally as that.

Illinois casinos stink. Not the facilities, which are now smoke-free. No, it's the revenues which cause one to recoil, with August's year/year comparisons falling into two categories: Poor and Awful (except for tiny Casino Rock Island, just $100K off last August's pace -- tantamount to a triumph in this context). Since adjoining states aren't seeing any great uptick in casino business, one is forced to conclude that the true impact of the Illinois smoking ban is both obscured and exaggerated by the ongoing effects of the recession. Business is bad and there's no getting around it.