David Mckee's Stiffs & Georges - Slot routes

What's a Trump casino worth?

Thu, 08 Oct 2009 15:07:00 -0700

Only $14 million in cash (plus a $100 million equity infusion), according to The Donald. Bondholders say, we'll see your $115 million and raise you $100 million. The latter would recoup at least some -- but not very much -- of their $1.25 billion debt under their plan, while Das Trump would send them away virtually empty-handed. (Moral: When Donald Trump asks you for a loan, take a page from Nancy Reagan and Just Say No.)

The bondholders' assignment of a $75 million valuation to Trump Marina seems awfully optimistic for what is, in essence, a corpse that can't be sold. In essence, the real value proposition is resurgent Trump Taj Mahal, with the other two casinos scarcely better than throw-ins. The Marina is, if anything, an albatross around the company's neck. Still, given that CEO Mark Juliano is going to exceptional lengths to champion the Trumpster's bid, which is a big "screw you" to the debtholders, here's hoping Judge Judith H. Wizmur holds firm for a more responsible solution.

Ho: No! "I don't see major resorts opening for the next couple of years now," says Lawrence Ho. thereby raining pessimism on the expansion plans of Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts and Galaxy Entertainment. The younger Ho also speculates upon the Chinese government's motivation for throttling, then somewhat relenting upon travel to Macao. Interesting tidbit: Marketwatch.com reports that "Venetian Sands" [sic] has cut its number of table games by 25%.

Nevada revenues in. And yeah, they suck. They're much less sucky than usual (-9%), showing an upward trend in baccarat plus two locals-oriented bright spots in the form of Aliante Station and M Resort. It's unclear, though, how much of the growth generated by the last two is new business vs. redistribution of dollars from elsewhere in the valley. The Sun's analysis is far more informative than that found in the R-J.

Wait 'til next year. That's the timeline for casinos in Massachusetts. Even though western Mass looks like slim pickings, lawmakers will probably have to put a casino there just to get the bill onto the floor.

Penn bid falls. Lenders to bankrupt Fontainebleau won a small victory or two, as the judge overseeing the case seems determined to keep lead developer Jeffrey Soffer as far from the disposition of F'bleau as possible. (Soffer is both a debtor and creditor on the project.)

F'bleau, for its part, revealed that Penn National Gaming's offer is now "substantially less" than $300 million, but would include money to replace the windows that are reportedly falling off the building. (One more reason not to build a Strip megaresort tower flush against the "pedestrian realm.")

Groundbreaking today for the long-awaited SugarHouse casino in Philadelphia, under the shadow of a stick-it-to-SugarHouse tax that's been proposed in the Lege. Table games, meanwhile, might be off the table in the face of a $200 million lawsuit. You see, non-racino casinos are allowed to have 5,000 slots (in return for a $50 million fee). Small "resort" casinos -- known as "Category 3" -- only have to $5 million and get 500 slots (accessible only to guests). That's proportional, obviously, and seems fair.

However ... lawmakers want to tilt the playing field by giving Category 3 casinos 30% as many slots as, say, Rivers Casino or SugarHouse, instead of 10% ... and open those games to the general public, not just guests. Of course, the state can't go to the one existing Category 3 casino and ask for another $10 million -- can it? Casino operators are also solidly behind the GOP position on table games: $10 million upfront plus a 12% tax. But, unless House Dems completely capitulate, the gaming bosses are unlikely to get what they want, at least where the tax rate is concerned.

Penn whiffs again. Although Penn Nat'l was supposed to be a bidder in the bankruptcy auction for the Lone Star Park racino, it evidently didn't get into the action and the track went to the Chickasaw Nation for $27 million. (A lot less than Harrah's Entertainment paid to get into Ohio.)

Which means that if/when gambling is legitimized in Texas, the Chickasaws will have a double advantage (parimutuel + tribal status), while Penn will be looking at yet another missed opportunity. Penn's corporate strategy is a baffling alternation of rashness and hyper-caution.

In other tribal news, much-criticized National Indian Gaming Commission Chairman Phil Hogen is gone, thank God, and with him his new, more-restrictive Class II rules. Hogen was justly pilloried for attempting a rollback of hard-won gains in what games tribes could offer. His new rules reflected Bush administration paternalism toward tribes and while they're officially postponed for a year, I think it's safe to say they're dead.* No wonder Rep. Dan Boren (D-OK) is smiling. Watch out for that doorknob, Mister (Ex-)Chairman.

(* It's probable the same thing would have happened under a President McCain, as either candidate would have brought a more enlightened attitude to D.C.-tribal relationships.)

Supporters of video gambling are starting to push back in Illinois, at least in rural, conservative McHenry County. So far it's been the urban areas where this expansion of gambling hasn't been gaining traction.

A repeal of UIGEA continues to gain ground in the House of Representatives, even if it got pulled off the floor in the Senate. (Thanks for nothing, Harry Reid.) The money quote, literally, is a reference to an amendment Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA) which would would specify that "corporate taxes owed on regulated Internet gambling activities are collected, as they currently are from the land-based casino industry." [emphasis added]

If that means what it implies, it would remove the spectre of industry-wide federal gambling taxation from the discussion and leave taxation to the states. If not, then the nose of the federal casino-tax camel is still sticking through the legislative tent. And you know where that leads.

We've seen a nationwide gaming tax get shot down during the Clinton administration but there are desperate times, obviously. Republicans like Mike Huckabee and Rep. Steve King (R-IA) have been looking to sock it to casinos at the federal level for some years now, so I fear it could have bipartisan support, should such a debate come to pass.

It's playoff time. A tired, flat-footed Minnesota Twins squad looked positively dreaful last night, flailing at outside pitches from C.C. Sabathia (if you couldn't reach that slider in the first inning, your arms aren't going to be any longer in the seventh, son). Cliff Lee made short work of the Colorado Rockies (besides, Jim Tracy can't win in the postseason), the St. Louis Cardinals look set to continue their tradition of postseason underperformance and my Anaheim Angels are forever reduced to a quivering heap of Jello in playoff games against the Boston Red Sox. Why am I having visions of brooms?

Rough trade

Mon, 13 Jul 2009 18:09:00 -0700

May wasn't great for Las Vegas, to say the least, with hotel occupancy -6%, a figure somewhat amplified by the presence of 3% more hotel rooms. The local ADR of $96.96 would have been regarded as real money back in the day. Hoteliers now are more likely to look at it in the context of the -28% shift from last year's rates. More worrisome is that convention attendance (-33%) outslid the number of conventions held (-26%), whereas it used to be the reverse.

Indiana has absorbed the effect of its two new racinos. Casino revenues were flat in June, a decline at most boats offset by the extra dollars generated at Harrah's Entertainment's Horseshoe Hammond (+13.5%) and Boyd Gaming's Blue Chip (+4%), both of which recently expanded. Penn National was hurt by the switchover to Hollywood Casino Lawrenceberg, its new vessel, and Ameristar East Chicago (-15%) withered under the glare of Horseshoe Hammond.

Illinois is scraping along, having evidently struck bottom ... for now. Once the impact of a fire-closed Empress Joliet was backed out, Illinois was down a mere 3%. That's practically a moral victory. Of course, with the institution of slot routes en route and the Lege contemplating a huge casino expansion in the state, any celebration will be short-lived. Harrah's Joliet was the logical beneficiary of the Empress Joliet shutdown (+5%), while MGM Mirage's Grand Victoria spiraled -17%.

There were a few gainers, ranging from miniscule (Boyd's Par-A-Dice) to massive (+109% at independent Casino Rock Island). East St. Louis-based Casino Queen finally lost a significant chunk of business (-11.5%) to its augmented Missouri rivals, while Penn's Alton Belle kept its leakage to -3%.

It's not a free market. Lawmakers in the Land of Lincoln have not only introduced slot routes, they may add four more casino licenses to the state. Factor in Neil Bluhm's casino project in Des Plaines (license #10), and the gambling market in Illinois becomes seriously diluted. However, no compensatory tax reduction is on the table.

When it comes to casinos and taxes, solons think simply that more = more. However, in a state where competition is limited by statute, not only does guvmint control the levers of the market place it has an obligation to take the economic consequences of its actions into account. This is not being done and the repercussions are likely to be severe.

Quote of the Day

Mon, 22 Jun 2009 13:33:00 -0700

"I don’t know many people who’ve been on a plane for hours and are loaded down with luggage who’d rather play 8/5 Double Double Bonus Poker than get their car and get to their hotel." -- David G. Schwartz on a proposal to put a slot route into McCarran International Airport's Rent-a-Car Center. Dr. Schwartz also runs the projected numbers and finds that they don't pencil out.

As F'bleau turns ...

Fri, 19 Jun 2009 16:48:00 -0700

Fontainbleau's grisly zillion-grievance bankruptcy has been sent to mediation. (I don't envy the mediator.) In the process, F'bleau has obliquely confirmed lenders' accusations of cost overruns. F'bleau has a union-affiliated financier lined up to provide funding above and beyond the final $656 million that the $2.9 billion (and climbing) resort's bankers have withheld.

One possible instance of profligacy involves F'bleau's on-hold condo component. Then-CEO Glenn Schaeffer had a handsome preview center erected along the Strip and staffed it up. But ... no matter how much you might want an F'bleau condo they wouldn't sell you one. No, they'd just take your contact information and get back to you -- sometime. With such half-assed decisionmaking, no wonder F'bleau alienated its backers.

And now the lawsuits pile up and contractor Turnberry West is being accused of featherbedding. This project really needs a third-party rescurer, but who would want it?

Burton is back? That's what Mike Weatherford is reporting. Lance Burton, it is hinted, will be returning to his Monte Carlo gig on July 1. Why all the delay and mystery? If I had to guess (and I do), my hunch would be that MGM Mirage is angling for a bigger slice of the gate receipts.

Atlantic City Death Watch: This is particularly worrisome -- Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell is opening the door to full Class III status for the Keystone State's slot parlors. Sensibly, Rendell advocates waiting and seeing until all of Pennsylvania's planned slot houses are up and running before upping the ante.

However, he's also giving legislators his tacit blessing to force the issue. His advocacy of expanded video poker in Pennsylvania isn't going to do besieged Atlantic City any favors, either.

Brooks: Steve Wynn sucks

Wed, 20 May 2009 14:10:00 -0700

State of the art Las Vegas ... if you're David Brooks.

OK, so David Brooks didn't go that far in his latest New York Times think piece, but if you applied his nostrums to the casino industry, Las Vegas would still look a heckuva lot like it did in 1988.

"The methodical executives at successful companies just make the same old four-door sedan, but they make it better and better," he writes. Then, further down: "The C.E.O.’s that are most likely to succeed are humble, diffident, relentless and a bit unidimensional. They are often not the most exciting people to be around. ... the virtues that writers tend to admire — those involving self-expression and self-exploration — are not the ones that lead to corporate excellence."

Hmmmmm. Steve Wynn can be egotistical, assertive, self-contradictory, multifaceted, expressive and reflective -- often all of the above in the space of a few sentences. His business track record must be a complete train wreck, mustn't it?

So hit the bricks, Wynn. You too, Anthony Marnell II & III, Glenn Schaeffer and Jim Murren, you art-collecting college-boy snobs. (They probably sip wine too, doncha bet?) We don't need none of yer out-of-the-box, smarty-pants thinking. Just give us the next iteration of the Boardwalk or Bingo Palace and make it snappy, OK?

The sound of obsolesence: The next time Review-Journal Editor Thomas Mitchell pens one of his endless series of musings wherein be strokes his moustache and is mystified by the decline of the newspaper bidness, he might ask himself this: Why did his paper run this wire-service story when the Sun had gotten to it two days earlier and in far greater detail?

The sad saga of Terrance K. Watanabe is rife with disturbing moral, ethical and regulatory questions. About the only clear-cut conclusion is that Watanabe's defense is a non-starter. (Harrah's Entertainment may be in trouble, but that's a separate issue.) Former Philadelphia Eagles owner Leonard Tose tried the same thing and had even less luck in court than at the tables. Fortunately, David G. Schwartz is right here to provide us with the relevant history and the precedent that augurs so poorly for the luck- and sobriety-challenged Mr. Watanabe.

It must be frustrating to keep trying to influence events and yet events refused to influenced, mustn't it? Let's ask this guy. He doesn't have a Puliztzer Prize, 'tis true. (Running stories two days after the Sun does might have something to do with it.) But some guy in Cedar City, Utah (who apparently couldn't find a copy of the Deseret News) is a big fan.

This just in: Schwartz also has the early word on a proposal to legitimize Illinois' gray-market slot route business. At first blush, this looks like a really good way to drive a dagger into the heart of the state's already-struggling casinos. Maybe Neil Bluhm should rethink that Chicagoland casino he's planning.