David Mckee's Stiffs & Georges - Macau

Great O'Day in the morning

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 14:15:00 -0700

Peepshow star/trainwreck-in-progress Aubrey O'Day likes to speak her mind, for whatever it's worth. Evidently the recklessly candid utterances of Ms. O'Day were worth not one, not two but, yes, three dispatches by Richard Abowitz.

The fascination is understandable, given an interview subject who readily owns up to being unhappy and describes her demi-celebrity as "fame-ish-ness." O'Day's costar, Holly Madison may have been dubbed "Queen of Vegas" but when Las Vegas Weekly tried to wrest similar prose mileage out of her, the result was better than Sominex. Strangely, I find myself rooting for the id-on-the-loose that is O'Day to go the distance here in Vegas.

A Bronx Tale. Kudos to Sheldon Adelson for rolling the dice on Chazz Palminteri's virtuosic one-man show, whose run has been extended for another week. Yours truly finds it a rather warm-and-cuddly depiction of Mob life but both Mike Weatherford and Joe Brown express nearly unmitigated enthusiasm. Whichever way you slice it, it's still three thumbs up for Palminteri.

Wynn still happy. If the Chinese government's aim in applying further curbs to Macao is to "tamp ... down" the Cotai Strip™, where Sheldon Adelson™ aims to build "Asia's Las Vegas™" no wonder Steve Wynn is a happy camper. Anything that handcuffs main rivals Las Vegas Sands and Stanley Ho is good news at Wynn HQ, especially with Encore Macau coming on line soon. How boring life would become if Wynn and Adelson ever suspended their running verbal gunfight.

F'bleau: Wait 'til 2012; Satre returns

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 13:33:00 -0700

That's basically the message coming out of bankruptcy court, where Fontainebleau ownership requested permission to scrap all conventions and meetings through October 2011. Among many other disclosures in the fast-moving Chapter 11 was the sacking of seven top executives. (A well-kept secret, seeing as the septet had been let go last May.)

At the top of the list was F'bleau President Audrey Oswell. Since being forced out of Caesars Atlantic City by Park Place Entertainment, Oswell's resumé has taken a pummeling. She left Resorts Atlantic City just as Colony Capital was beginning to mismanage it into insolvency, then leapfrogged to Cosmopolitan (foreclosed) and then from the deck of that sinking ship to F'bleau. If it weren't for bad luck, she'd have no luck at all.

Here's hoping Oswell's next employer has steadier financial underpinnings than her last three. (Question for Resorts A.C. lenders: If you give Colony the boot but leave casino boss Nick Ribis in place, have you really solved the problem?)

Matthews out, Satre in: The much-admired Philip G. Satre has taken over as chairman of IGT, where he will no doubt act as a valued counselor to CEO Patti Hart, vouchsafing an insider's perspective on the casino companies with whom she must deal. Satre's ascent could also make for an interesting turn in the war of words between IGT and Harrah's Entertainment, whose CEO and CFO have made it a pastime to trash-talk the slot giant. Will Gary Loveman be so bold in slamming IGT now that his Harrah's predecessor chairs its board?

Bad timing? Despite the Chinese government's speedy flip-flop on access to Macao, the dynamic duo of MGM Mirage and Pansy Ho are mulling both an IPO on the Hang Seng stock exchange and further expansion in the casino enclave. But is this the moment for such aggressiveness? MGM Grand Macao is only beginning to perform up to expectations and the parent company is having to push a $5.6 billion debt payment into 2015.

Macao giveth, Macao taketh away

Tue, 13 Oct 2009 17:41:00 -0700

Casino operators in Macao better make the most of the recent relaxation of visa quotas into the enclave. What the government gives with one hand, it partly reclaims with the other. Casino expansion remains out of the question and the minimum age for gambling would go up to 21, from 18, under a bill draft soon to be put forward. (Steve Wynn can afford to be sanguine, as it's far more likely to impact his mass-market-oriented competitors. Investors didn't share his enthusiasm.)

If Wynn -- who continues to toe the Peking party line -- comes out a winner, facing negligible "obstacables," Lawrence Ho is the presumptive loser. As best S&G can ascertain, the curtailment of gambling in residential areas is aimed at his Mocha slot routes, one of the younger Ho's bread-and-butter enterprises.

Another proposal awaiting action by the Macanese Lege would cap table-game inventory. Writes J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff, "we believe the Macau government believes the timing is right to implement these initiatives given the completion of the commission cap rule and the resumption of growth in the industry ... if the number of tables will be limited to 1,000 per operator, [Las Vegas Sands] may need to modify its future expansion plans, as it is already over the limit, while SJM will need to close down some of the older tables operated by the third parties, as it too is already over the limit."

None of this appears to bode especially well for Sands' long-in-coming IPO, although it remains to be seen whether this is a bonafide legislative agenda or simply a warning to inhibit growth. The news, however, managed to cast a pall over Sheldon Adelson's planned resumption of his Cotai Strip™. Also, it's not as though the Macanese government and its casino-owning subjects don't have to worry about an upsurge in gambling back on the Mainland.

Detroit, briefly. The depression continues to eat into Detroit's casino revenues, -2% last month. Despite a -6.5% drop, MGM Grand Detroit remains the big cat, grossing $42 million. Second place is up for grabs, though, as MotorCity continues to fall back (-7%) toward upstart Greektown (+12%), which is closing the gap, grossing $28.5 million against $33.5 million for MotorCity.

Why does Steve Wynn hate America?

Tue, 13 Oct 2009 14:31:00 -0700

Or maybe the question should be, What was Steve Wynn smoking before he told CNBC "Money Honey" Maria Bartiromo that Wynn Macau was making more than all other 30 Macao casinos combined? Perhaps he meant his joint is the single-highest-grossing casino in the Chinese protectorate, but his phraseology is misleading:

Wynn's remarks on the importance of staffing and customer service are, as usual, on point. However, he starts sounding like a puppet of Peking ("One thing about the Chinese government, I think they get it right."), praising the steadiness and thoughtfulness of its policies. Here's an example of Peking's steady, thoughtful policymaking in action:

Wynn's comments that infrastructural improvements don't help at tourism-dependent (casino) industry make him sound naive -- doubly so if aforesaid projects put disposable income into consumers' pockets. Still and all, Wynn is far more reasonable on CNBC -- and immeasurably less obnoxious -- than during his obstreperous Fox News Sunday rants.

Although Wynn clearly fancies himself the new political pundit on the block, he's got but one string to his bow: bellowing "Tax policy" over and over. Which translates as "Tax cuts (for me)!" Yup, if Big Guvmint would just stop collecting taxes from Big Bidness, everything would be hunky-dory, economically speaking. We'd have new jobs coming out the ass.

Here's the problem with that line of argument: We're fresh off eight straight years of tax cuts, tax holidays and corporate loopholes big enough to encompass every square foot of CityCenter. How did that work out for us?

More to the point, given a tax-averse administration and Congress, how did Wynn's casino colleagues handle their newfound largesse? Did they invest it responsibly? Hell to the no! That "bundling of the Strip" which Wynn has decried is the poisoned fruit of companies that were awash in capital and easy credit, who then used it to try and eradicate the competition. (Similar phenomena occurred in the regional casino markets and in the slot industry.)

Having cannibalized their main rivals, casino companies then began to devour themselves, in the form of insupportable debt levels and insane LBOs. And if Wynn really believes that government spending has never improved anyone's lot in life (he must have forgotten the New Deal, for starters), then how many standards of living are raised by merger-and-acquisition orgies? For the average worker, it means jobs are "consolidated" out of existence. Heck, not even executives are immune. Just ask some of the Mandalay Resort Group or Park Place Entertainment higher-ups who are now enjoying involuntary retirement.

Should the current administration hand out the kind of tax vacation Wynn is demanding, would the casino industry A) buy new and shiny objects, B) retire debt or C) create jobs? B & C would probably finish a distant second and third to A.

Just look at Harrah's Entertainment: It can't repay its creditors dollar for dollar but thinks nothing of snapping up 16% of Planet Hollywood. If there's degenerate gambling going on in the casinos, the worst of it can be found in the executive suites. If these guys ever took to playing Russian roulette, they'd probably leave at least five bullets in the revolver.

Wynn is probably feeling his oats, given the bullish, odds-defying early performance of his Hong Kong IPO. The real story may be that gains realized in the Hang Seng will be used to prop up Wynn's Las Vegas operations rather than to expand in Macao.

This just in: The two-week run of A Bronx Tale at the Venetian has been extended to a third weekend. A spoken-word play in a Strip theater seemed like a dicey prospect so this is very good news indeed.

Stanley Ho: I'm not dead yet!

Fri, 09 Oct 2009 13:15:00 -0700

Either rumors of Stanley Ho's death, three weeks ago, were greatly exaggerated or the elderly casino magnate has made the most remarkable recovery since Jesus Christ. (I'm put in mind of a favorite bit of Babylon 5 dialogue in which Capt. Sheridan [Bruce Boxleitner] confirms that he indeed died, adding, "I'm better now.")

Today, Bloomberg News reports Lawrence Ho says dear old Dad is "looking better every day" and making a good recovery from -- as best we can conjecture via published reports -- a subdural hematoma brought on by a nasty fall. The younger Ho says his father's SJM has no plan of succession in place. Boy, when the Grim Reaper eventually comes for old Stan, the fight for control is going to make King Lear look like a tea party.

A compromise is shaping up in the Pennsylvania table-games wrangle and casinos won't like it one bit. According to J.P. Morgan summary, while the Dems in the lower house haven't budged off their preferred $20 million upfront fee/34% tax equation, the GOP-led state Senate has blinked.

The Senate's proposal would set the license fee at $15 million (a 50% increase) and the taxes at 14%, up from 12%. Casinos might be able to swallow that, on the presumption that the tax increase is small and the extra $5 million in fees can be quickly recouped. Even at $20 million, a bigger upfront hit can be regained by operators off the back end -- provided that the tax rate stays relatively low. Doubtless that's the lesser of two evils, from their perspective.

Bluhm: $45 million saved is $45 million earned.

On the money-saving front, the budget for the initial version of Neil Bluhm's SugarHouse casino is now announced at $310 million: a -$45 million shift. Considering that Bluhm's Rivers Casino and Sheldon Adelson's Sands Bethlehem came in at a staggering $1.5 billion-plus (combined), this new dollar figure suggests a welcome return to fiscal restraint. Your turn, Foxwoods.

What's a Trump casino worth?

Thu, 08 Oct 2009 15:07:00 -0700

Only $14 million in cash (plus a $100 million equity infusion), according to The Donald. Bondholders say, we'll see your $115 million and raise you $100 million. The latter would recoup at least some -- but not very much -- of their $1.25 billion debt under their plan, while Das Trump would send them away virtually empty-handed. (Moral: When Donald Trump asks you for a loan, take a page from Nancy Reagan and Just Say No.)

The bondholders' assignment of a $75 million valuation to Trump Marina seems awfully optimistic for what is, in essence, a corpse that can't be sold. In essence, the real value proposition is resurgent Trump Taj Mahal, with the other two casinos scarcely better than throw-ins. The Marina is, if anything, an albatross around the company's neck. Still, given that CEO Mark Juliano is going to exceptional lengths to champion the Trumpster's bid, which is a big "screw you" to the debtholders, here's hoping Judge Judith H. Wizmur holds firm for a more responsible solution.

Ho: No! "I don't see major resorts opening for the next couple of years now," says Lawrence Ho. thereby raining pessimism on the expansion plans of Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts and Galaxy Entertainment. The younger Ho also speculates upon the Chinese government's motivation for throttling, then somewhat relenting upon travel to Macao. Interesting tidbit: Marketwatch.com reports that "Venetian Sands" [sic] has cut its number of table games by 25%.

Nevada revenues in. And yeah, they suck. They're much less sucky than usual (-9%), showing an upward trend in baccarat plus two locals-oriented bright spots in the form of Aliante Station and M Resort. It's unclear, though, how much of the growth generated by the last two is new business vs. redistribution of dollars from elsewhere in the valley. The Sun's analysis is far more informative than that found in the R-J.

Wait 'til next year. That's the timeline for casinos in Massachusetts. Even though western Mass looks like slim pickings, lawmakers will probably have to put a casino there just to get the bill onto the floor.

Penn bid falls. Lenders to bankrupt Fontainebleau won a small victory or two, as the judge overseeing the case seems determined to keep lead developer Jeffrey Soffer as far from the disposition of F'bleau as possible. (Soffer is both a debtor and creditor on the project.)

F'bleau, for its part, revealed that Penn National Gaming's offer is now "substantially less" than $300 million, but would include money to replace the windows that are reportedly falling off the building. (One more reason not to build a Strip megaresort tower flush against the "pedestrian realm.")

Groundbreaking today for the long-awaited SugarHouse casino in Philadelphia, under the shadow of a stick-it-to-SugarHouse tax that's been proposed in the Lege. Table games, meanwhile, might be off the table in the face of a $200 million lawsuit. You see, non-racino casinos are allowed to have 5,000 slots (in return for a $50 million fee). Small "resort" casinos -- known as "Category 3" -- only have to $5 million and get 500 slots (accessible only to guests). That's proportional, obviously, and seems fair.

However ... lawmakers want to tilt the playing field by giving Category 3 casinos 30% as many slots as, say, Rivers Casino or SugarHouse, instead of 10% ... and open those games to the general public, not just guests. Of course, the state can't go to the one existing Category 3 casino and ask for another $10 million -- can it? Casino operators are also solidly behind the GOP position on table games: $10 million upfront plus a 12% tax. But, unless House Dems completely capitulate, the gaming bosses are unlikely to get what they want, at least where the tax rate is concerned.

Penn whiffs again. Although Penn Nat'l was supposed to be a bidder in the bankruptcy auction for the Lone Star Park racino, it evidently didn't get into the action and the track went to the Chickasaw Nation for $27 million. (A lot less than Harrah's Entertainment paid to get into Ohio.)

Which means that if/when gambling is legitimized in Texas, the Chickasaws will have a double advantage (parimutuel + tribal status), while Penn will be looking at yet another missed opportunity. Penn's corporate strategy is a baffling alternation of rashness and hyper-caution.

In other tribal news, much-criticized National Indian Gaming Commission Chairman Phil Hogen is gone, thank God, and with him his new, more-restrictive Class II rules. Hogen was justly pilloried for attempting a rollback of hard-won gains in what games tribes could offer. His new rules reflected Bush administration paternalism toward tribes and while they're officially postponed for a year, I think it's safe to say they're dead.* No wonder Rep. Dan Boren (D-OK) is smiling. Watch out for that doorknob, Mister (Ex-)Chairman.

(* It's probable the same thing would have happened under a President McCain, as either candidate would have brought a more enlightened attitude to D.C.-tribal relationships.)

Supporters of video gambling are starting to push back in Illinois, at least in rural, conservative McHenry County. So far it's been the urban areas where this expansion of gambling hasn't been gaining traction.

A repeal of UIGEA continues to gain ground in the House of Representatives, even if it got pulled off the floor in the Senate. (Thanks for nothing, Harry Reid.) The money quote, literally, is a reference to an amendment Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA) which would would specify that "corporate taxes owed on regulated Internet gambling activities are collected, as they currently are from the land-based casino industry." [emphasis added]

If that means what it implies, it would remove the spectre of industry-wide federal gambling taxation from the discussion and leave taxation to the states. If not, then the nose of the federal casino-tax camel is still sticking through the legislative tent. And you know where that leads.

We've seen a nationwide gaming tax get shot down during the Clinton administration but there are desperate times, obviously. Republicans like Mike Huckabee and Rep. Steve King (R-IA) have been looking to sock it to casinos at the federal level for some years now, so I fear it could have bipartisan support, should such a debate come to pass.

It's playoff time. A tired, flat-footed Minnesota Twins squad looked positively dreaful last night, flailing at outside pitches from C.C. Sabathia (if you couldn't reach that slider in the first inning, your arms aren't going to be any longer in the seventh, son). Cliff Lee made short work of the Colorado Rockies (besides, Jim Tracy can't win in the postseason), the St. Louis Cardinals look set to continue their tradition of postseason underperformance and my Anaheim Angels are forever reduced to a quivering heap of Jello in playoff games against the Boston Red Sox. Why am I having visions of brooms?

Case Bets: California crisis, M cutbacks, "Guiding Light" in LV, etc.

Thu, 08 Oct 2009 11:50:00 -0700

Ist California kaput? That's the question posed by the The Observer and it makes for troubling reading. If Gov. Jim Gibbons (R-NV) is right that tourism from California is the carotid artery of Nevada's economy, then the Silver State is -- to put it politely -- screwed. A good thing the Lege didn't follow Midnight Jim's advice and shut down Nevada's outreach efforts in China.

Speaking of which ... Amidst a flurry of economic developments and positive indicators in Macao, the casinos of Stanley Ho are backing off the expensive VIP trade and going mass-market. (Translation: "We're coming after you, Sheldon Adelson.") Thanks to reader mike_ch for the link.

Colossal buMMer. Breakfast has just been eliminated from the offerings at the M Resort buffet. Unless one lives nearby (a relatively small clientele), M is a heckuva long detour to make for breakfast, so this economy move is understandable ... but depressing all the same. No casino buffet gets higher marks from LVA readers.

That's a bit weird. Stay with me here, folks. CBS cancels Guiding Light, replacing it with Let's Make a Deal, which is shot at the Tropicana Las Vegas. So what should be coming to Vegas in December (at The Rio) but a Guiding Light farewell tour -- yes, Reva, Josh and the whole kit 'n kaboodle. How much you wanna bet they won't be taking in a LMaD taping at the Trop? The only way to make this scenario more Banquo's Ghost-ly would be for the soap convention to be held at the Trop, too.

P.S.: Better get your tickets now before the 'Otalia' fans scarf them all up.

Company. Performances resume at UNLV tonight and it's a must-see. Mind you, the Review-Journal praises the Stephen Sondheim revival with faint damns, while the Sun's review reverses that formula. But I'd pay to see it again, which I don't say about many shows in this town.

$300 mil for F'bleau?

Tue, 06 Oct 2009 13:10:00 -0700

That's the latest; namely, that Penn National Gaming will put down less than $300 million as a "stalking horse" bid on Fontainebleau. Penn would also be on the hook for the costs of the project's bankruptcy proceedings. Potentially getting a Strip resort for less than 10% of its cost sounds like a good deal for Penn ... until you think about the hundreds of millions of dollars (possibly as much as $2 billion) that stand between F'bleau and the finish line.

Sue Lowden evidently didn't get the memo that Mike Ensign is no longer writing fat campaign checks at Mandalay Resort Group. How else to explain the Archon Corp. treasurer's loud and frequent fealty to Ensign fils, the ethically challenged junior senator from Nevada? Lowden's proclamations provided an irresistible temptation for Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Ed Schultz, who sniped, "Sue Lowden's support of John Ensign may have fundraising value to her, but it is a reflection of her own character and fitness for office. She has shown more fidelity to him, than he has shown to his own wife." (Lowden is gunning for Sen. Harry Reid's seat.)

In her capacity at Archon, Lowden could line the younger Ensign up with a dandy post-senatorial job as a casino greeter at her Pioneer Gambling Hall in Laughlin. (As for Lowden, at least she's off Jon Ralston's "Chicken List," after gracing the Face to Face set. Your turn, Sheldon Adelson. Does Sue Lowden have more huevos than you?)

The perils of Packer. Reeling from a $1 billion loss on his overseas casino misadventures, James Packer and his Crown Ltd. are putting some of their Melbourne land on the block.

Not buying it. Although MGM Mirage CEO Jim Murren may have predicted that CityCenter's premiere would increase Vegas visitation by 10%, but gaming analysts aren't having any of it, especially when all the new room capacity is at the high end. Also, it's remembering that the 1998-2000 roll of megaresort openings and the 2005 debut of Wynn Las Vegas coincided with robust U.S. economies. Andrew Zarnett advises casino bosses to look at current numbers as the new baseline -- which sure beats pining for the vertiginous and unsustainable levels of two years ago.

Macanese machinations. Conventional wisdom on the advisability of floating IPOs in Hong Kong continues to seesaw. The Wall Street Journal runs the numbers and finds gaming stocks defying the market's downward trend. Which is good news for Steve Wynn and possibly even Las Vegas Sands' public offering, which is taking forever to reach the launch pad.

Macao's blockbuster month

Fri, 02 Oct 2009 18:23:00 -0700

A flurry of good news to end the week, starting in Macao:

September, the first month affected by a relaxation of severe visa restrictions imposed on the mainland, saw a 53% jump in Macanese gambling revenues. In terms of market share, Stanley Ho opened a big lead on Sheldon Adelson, 30% to 20%, with Melco Crown Entertainment close behind with 16%. The remainder of the market was divvied between Wynn Resorts (14%), MGM Mirage (10%) and Galaxy Entertainment (8%).

Is Melco's City of Dreams (above) eating into nearby Venetian Macao's business? On the surface, it certainly looks plausible. Given the immensity of the facilities he's building on the Cotai Strip™, Adelson ought to be getting more bang for his pataca.

Vegas hearts gays. Earlier today, I was asked to reflect on my nearly 11 years in Las Vegas. It's been full of surprising twists of fate -- who ever thought Steve Wynn would be forced out of the Mirage brand he'd created, just for starters?

But I sure as heck never imagined I'd open my e-mail box at work and find the following casino promotions, all keyed to National Coming Out Day (Oct. 3):

"Two Queens Beat a Straight" (New York-New York)

... or the slightly more innocuous ...

"COME OUT and Celebrate at Luxor"

(Luxor was smart and didn't offer Criss F. Angel tickets as part of the, uh, package)

In the Vegas of even a few years ago, "Boys' Night Out Package at Excalibur" would have had more of a frat-party connotation. MGM Grand plays it safe with a "His or Her Getaway" which sounds like a generic singles-oriented deal. Even so, we're actually seeing progress from the days when Vegas marketed itself as a synonym for a very debauched and jaundiced vision of male heterosexuality.

There's nothing like a depression to make this a party town of equal-opportunity decadence. After all, LGBT dollars spend just as fast as straight ones.

$545 a night. That's what Mandarin Oriental is asking. If you read the fine print, you'll note that (through March 31), if you buy a room night at that rate, you'll get a comped night, too. Which makes the effective rate $272 and change. By current standards, that's still steep ... but maybe staying in a 392-room hotel instead of a 4,000-room behemoth is an intangible added value. What do you think?

Adelson's rescuer?

Wed, 30 Sep 2009 14:01:00 -0700

Meet Wilbur Ross. He's an investor of all trades with an appetite for distressed assets. And he's turning his sights to the casino industry. In particular, he's drawn a bead on "companies [who] are also looking at selling assets in the Chinese gambling enclave of Macau to support struggling operations in Las Vegas."

That means either Las Vegas Sands or MGM Mirage, and it's old news that Sheldon Adelson has been peddling a couple of retail malls and the non-casino aspects of Sands Macao (above). MGM is attempting a reboot (successful so far) of MGM Grand Macau but still might come up short on completion money for CityCenter, especially if condo prices have to be reduced. And it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that one Macanese casino beats any number of hotel rooms or retail outlets.

Un-Trumped? Thwarted Trump Marina suitor Richard Fields is making another run at the property, which he's been trying to buy since Homer was a pup. Better still for him, he could get it for as little as $75 million. However, he's got dark-horse competition from a Maryland-based private equity fund that's making a play for all three of the Trump Entertainment Resorts casinos.

Notorious for mainly hanging its corporate shingle in tax-haven Green Valley, would-be casino operator Empire Resorts is not only re-headquartered in New York State, it's got new partners. Some of them bring checkered pasts to the table.

Also, Empire's hopes hinge upon the current administration reversing an especially paternalistic ruling from the George W. Bush years: namely, that casino sites must be within commuting distance of the tribal owners' -- in this case the St. Regis Mohawks -- reservations. If economic self-sufficiency is the endgame of federal/policy, Uncle Sam needs to loosen the apron strings.

Unready for some football. The unceremonious scrapping of Monday Night Football events at The Cannery is explained (second item). Magic word: clearance. Columnist John Katsilometes also notes that the second weekend of Zowie Bowie's Vintage Vegas was better than the first. Which would mean it's graduated from "bad" to "mediocre."

New England moralists are apparently OK with slot machines in Rhode Island, so long as they're covered by the fig leaf of mandatory greyhound racing. At least the slot players have a chance of actually catching the rabbit, metaphorically speaking. Animal cruelty is bad enough but when it's enshrined in state law it's even more objectionable, if such a thing is possible.

Case Bets: Wynn in Macao, "Peepshow" strips down

Tue, 29 Sep 2009 15:30:00 -0700

• Steve Wynn is accelerating his timetable for developing on the Cotai Strip™. If Wynn continues to learn from his early miscalculations (and I see no reason to expect otherwise), a gaming-centric Wynn Resorts property on Cotai is a far better bet than Sheldon Adelson's retail- and hotel-heavy business model.

• While the unpredictable Aubrey O'Day is the ostensible focus of this Peepshow update, she's not the main point of interest. Rather, it's the spate of cheesparing moves made by BASE Entertainment.

The show's band has been thrown overboard and the cast has been reduced, requiring some performers to double in other roles. This explains the disappearance of Katie Webber, a strong vocalist whose big number has now been reassigned to Ms. O'Day. At some point, I'm going to be obliged to revisit Peepshow but I can tell you right now I'm not looking forward to it.

• Despite Sen. Harry Reid's juice job on the Sig Rogich Victorville Flyer (aka Desert Xpress), backers of an alternative maglev project are fighting back. Given that the most difficult part of the SoCal-to-Vegas drive is past once you reach Victorville, why anybody would park their car in the broiling sun and hop aboard Sig's Choo-Choo to Nowhere remains a mystery.

Masters of the Obvious II

Tue, 29 Sep 2009 13:36:00 -0700

Regarding the punting of casinos from Penghu, the great minds of Wall Street put on their thinking caps and came up with the following, as paraphrased by the Las Vegas Review-Journal: "analysts said the vote could be a viewed as a positive indicator for Macau's gaming market, eliminating a source of competition."

Gee, ya think?

Actually, Union Gaming Group's Bill Lerner adds a dash of sanity, rating the Taiwanese market as "marginal" and raising the hitherto-unasked question: Just what's the likelihood Peking would allow Chinese citizens to start hopping planes and ferries to Taiwan, to fritter away Mainland currency?

Too bad, though, for Navegante Gaming Group founder Larry J. Woolf, who bet heavily on Penghu and lost at the ballot box. Having taken the proactive (or rash, according to one's perspective) step of cobbling together beachfront acreage, Woolf has the unenviable choice of trying to sell it -- in which case, he's dealing from a weak hand -- or trying to make lemonade by building a non-casino resort. That way, he can at least bide his time until the '12 elections come around.

Even before the wheels started coming off the casino industry in earnest, there were portents that it was reaching a saturation point in the U.S. It was inevitable. New jurisdictions were steadily opening, established ones became thicker with competition and the average American's income hasn't been rising at a level that would keep pace with galloping casino growth.

There's only so much discretionary income to go around and the industry was bound to hit the wall. The current depression merely accelerated and amplified the resultant "Thud!"

One casualty of this collision is Rivers Casino in Pittsburgh, whose slot revenues are running 22% below projections. That's causing Standard & Poor's to hint darkly at default, maybe even bankruptcy. Despite being in a prime market, Rivers Casino is performing seventh among Pennsylvania's nine casinos, which means fifth-place Sands Bethlehem has to be upgraded from "flop" to "mild underachiever."

One can't really blame current Rivers ownership. It inherited the $800 million (!) project after original owner Don Barden ran way over budget, then ran dry. However, it's a good thing the local property-tax assessor is currently undervaluing the Rivers site because Neil Bluhm (who breaks ground in Philadelphia next week) needs those extra $$ far worse than we thought.

Robo-poker reprieved ...

Mon, 28 Sep 2009 18:08:00 -0700

... but maybe not long for long. A momentary uptick in the price of PokerTek stock temporarily rescued it from penny-stock status. But after decisive rejections of dealer-less poker in both Las Vegas and Atlantic City, the future of PokerTek as anything other than a marginal supplier looks bleak.

Vegas casino operators continue to learn that you can't export the Strip business model to Macao (our over-optimistic expectations to the contrary). Case in point: Wynn Macau, which is cannibalizing restaurants, kitchens and even a showroom to make room for more gambling positions. A sanguine-sounding Steve Wynn, meanwhile, yawns in the face of competition from Singapore and tries to spin his Macanese IPO as a philanthropic gesture.

Neil Bluhm's big break. Although $800 million Rivers Casino in Pittsburgh maybe up and running, the county assessor continues to tax the site as though it were empty land. As the bureaucrats let tens of millions of property-tax dollars slip through their fingers, casino owner Neil Bluhm has a chance to bank some serious coin here. That'll take a little of the sting out of Pennsylvania's 55% gross-revenues tax rate.

A Texas track that's now come into tribal hands may hold the key to the future (if any) of limited Vegas-style gambling in Texas. The Lone Star State's gubernatorial aspirants are all over the map. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) has cozied up to the Stone Age anti-gambling crowd, making Gov. Rick Perry's (R) qualified pro-gambling position preferable ... even though Perry would still relegate Indian tribes to the back of the bus.

S&G likes candidate Kinky Friedman best on this issue (the Kinkster is pro-casino, period), while Tom Schieffer (D) is back in the Dark Ages somewhere with Hutchison. Hank Gilbert occupies a wussy, "let's take a poll" middle ground somewhere between Perry and his GOP rival.

Atlantic City sucks ...

Tue, 22 Sep 2009 18:05:00 -0700

... says the Motley Fool, in essence. Even Borgata, which posted a higher operating profit year/year, is deemed merely to suck less than everybody else. I'm not sure I'm with the Fools on this one. For instance, shouldn't Sands Bethlehem be doing better than fifth among Pennsylvania casinos, especially when you consider its proximity to New York City?

Elsewhere on the Boardwalk, the UAW is fighting Trump Plaza, the Plaza is fighting the National Labor Relations Board and Trump dealers are fighting amongst themselves. Since 32% of dealers initially voted against UAW representation, it should be a cinch to round up 30% to sign a decertification petition. Kudos to Trump Entertainment Resorts CEO Mark Juliano for going out of his way to soothe potential animosity between labor and management.

MILF convention in A.C.: On Oct. 3, former Bunnies and other veterans of the short-lived Playboy Hotel & Casino will return to the shore to relive the good old days. A few might even wriggle into their old Bunny costumes. Maybe a re-infusion of the Playboy brand is what Atlantic City needs. It can only help. Are you listening, Carl Icahn? Revel? Pinnacle Entertainment? Anybody?

Finally, a reason to visit Orlando ...

... or maybe not. And that dude from Scotland is in serious need of subtitles.

Resort-style casinos come to Colorado and doesn't Ameristar's new hotel look lovely? Now, if only somebody would build a mid-market property like this on the Strip. Why must average Americans settle for older, second-tier properties if they're to afford a Vegas vacation?

Health care reform + Internet gambling? Is it just me or is Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) onto something here? This may be just the carrot to dangle in front of legislators who still balk at allowing Americans to wager on the Web.

Creditors screwed again. How much is Greektown Casino worth? Is it the $725 million its creditors claim? Or the $540 million that Greektown asserts? Or maybe the lowball $485 million that lead bidder Tom Celani is willing to pay? Greektown's recent -- and well-publicized -- inroads into the market share of its Detroit rivals lend merit to the higher-end valuations. If the place was in the doghouse, I might sympathize with Celani (who's likely to boot the very management team responsible for Greektown's turnaround), but Fine Point Group has definitely enhanced a once-seedy casino's value.

It's official. VIP-player commissions in Macao will be capped. Since the war over junketeer commissions was threatening to make Macao a negative-revenue proposition, the new ceiling will greatly improve cash flow for Macanese operators. Middle-of-the-pack Galaxy Entertainment is expected to benefit the most (+27% EBITDA), followed at some distance by Stanley Ho (16%), with Las Vegas Sands and MGM Mirage bringing up the rear. Although the elderly Ho may be on his deathbed, he's lived long enough to broker peace in a potentially destructive situation where the only sure winners were the sought-after junket operators.

Bad bulletins for Sands & Strickland

Tue, 22 Sep 2009 12:03:00 -0700

Last week, Audit Integrity identified the 20 companies most at risk of bankruptcy (minimum market capitalization: $1 billion) and the lone gambling operator on the list was Las Vegas Sands. On Friday, Business Insider piled on. Pruning Audit Integrity's list of any firms with market cap below $3 billion, that still left nine companies ... and Las Vegas Sands.

Quoth the Insider: "Conditions in Las Vegas are horrible, Asian expansion isn’t enough, and if this lasts too long then LVS will end up in bankruptcy court looking like it bit off more than it can chew."

Marina Bay Sands: a megaresort too far?

No shit. With an unfinished casino-hotel in Pennsylvania and the abortive St(ump) Regis condo on the Strip, Sheldon Adelson has too many fingers in too many pies. Plus, his $5 billion Singapore albatross will get beaten to the starting line by subsequent entrant Genting. And even with a sudden easing of access from mainland China to Macao, it's too soon to be going pedal to the metal on the remainder of the Cotai Strip™, as Adelson would clearly like to do.

(As though to twist the knife in the wound, retail developer Taubman Cos. made a point -- in the course of reiterating its interest in a rival project -- of saying it wasn't in the market for the two shopping malls Adelson is desperately trying to unload.)

Ohio's supreme court delivered a swift kick to the groin of Gov. Ted Strickland (D) -- and to the casino industry's hopes for imminent expansion into Ohio. By a 6-1 vote, the high court ruled that addition of seven racinos needs to go before a vote of the people, throwing as much as a 14-month hitch into the process.

If that weren't enough, Strickland has to cope with the continued meddling of Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH), who seems to believe he still occupies the governor's mansion, too. Governors hate it when the congressional delegation bigfoots them on intra-state affairs. Such a clash led to a permanent rift between fellow Republicans then-Gov. Kenny Guinn and then-Rep. Jim Gibbons.

Strickland, meanwhile, is poring over the court's ruling in search of loopholes that might allow Class II gaming to go on line in December. It's that or cut $852 million from the state budget. If he can insinuate VLTs into horse tracks by May, then voters have a few months to get habituated to them before the 2010 vote.

For Harrah's Entertainment, the good news is that the court's ruling temporarily shaves $47 million off the sale price of Thistledown Park (the full $89 million tab is contingent on racino conversion). For seller Magna Entertainment, the bad news is that the deal may fall through entirely if Harrah's doesn't want to gamble on the outcome of further legal challenges and the tender mercies of the electorate.

Optimism in Macao, euphoria at CityCenter

Tue, 08 Sep 2009 17:33:00 -0700

Relaxation of stringent visa restrictions from Guangdong Province came a full four months sooner than expected, starting Sept. 1. Now, residents will be able to visit Macao once a month instead of quarterly. While this has prompted J.P. Morgan to raise its price target on Las Vegas Sands stock, analysts also fret that Sands may overreact and go pedal to the metal on its unfinished Cotai Strip™ hotels.

Those same analysts are bullish on the manufacturing sector, though. They think casinos will be more willing to reinvest in the slot base as 2009 draws to a close. Also, the onward march of casino expansion means more jurisdictions and facilities to whom IGT, Bally and WMS can peddle their products. They're 'meh' on regional casino operators like Penn National, Ameristar Casinos and Pinnacle Entertainment, due to flattish performance. (Penn could catch a break in Kansas, though I still think Cordish Gaming has that sewn up.)

But that's a rave notice compared to the long face Morgan analysts pull when pondering Boyd Gaming's prospects. They cite the slow-to-recover, promo-driven locals-casino market in Las Vegas ("trickle-down" economics of the worst sort); Atlantic City's critical condition -- "the best-case scenario here is that [Borgata] would do less bad" than most of A.C. -- those blah regional metrics and new competition for the Blue Chip riverboat in Indiana, which had been looking like 2009's feel-good story.

Intriguingly, the prospect of a Strip acquistion is floated in lieu of a 'stalking horse' bid for floundering Station Casinos. Boyd's still got enough unused borrowing capacity it could even swing an acquisition of The Mirage (with money to spare), not to mention some of the lower-hanging fruit, which now includes Planet Hollywood. But if the J.P. Morgan guys are gun-shy concerning Boyd ...

They're over the moon about MGM Mirage's CityCenter: "we are increasingly under the belief that City Center will be a new must-see property for both domestic and international gamers/travelers that should drive solid visitation volumes to the Strip in 2010. We were impressed with the massive 18m-square-foot complex ... a new type of high-end product for the Strip that should garner increased trips. It has a very contemporary feel that is different than anything else on the Strip, with lots of natural light and high ceilings, interesting room product and, for a massive property, ease of getting around from one 'neighborhood' to the next."

More good news comes in the form of a press release from Commerce Casino (in Commerce, Calif.), which rolled out the welcome mat for a group of undoubtedly weary firefighters. A strike force of 30 Bay Area-based firemen is being housed in the casino's hotel, with the casino comping all meals and picking up most of the hotel tab. Let's hope that such civic-mindedness spreads through the industry like -- if you'll forgive the analogy -- wildfire.

In case it matters, "super-starlet" (yes, that's the official term) Holly Madison has been given a 12-month contract extension at Peepshow, so she's obviously earning her pay. Also, I've heard through the grapevine that she and incoming Aubrey O'Day do not get along, so the timing of the Madison announcement should make clear who's got the upper implant in this situation.

'Peepshow''s little Hitler problem

Tue, 08 Sep 2009 16:20:00 -0700

Congratulations (not!) to the producers of Peepshow, whose rent-a-headliner stratagem has finally blown up in their faces. They're replacing a Jew (Shoshana Bean) with a fan of the leadership abilities of -- I kid you not -- Adolf Hitler. Oh, and she's a googly-eyed admirer of Fidel Castro, who -- among other offenses against humanity -- ran the casino industry out of Cuba.

Of course, this town has a tycoon or two known for cozying up to the authoritarian regime of Singapore and the downright despotic one in Peking. So perhaps Ms. O'Day's pathetic excuse for a brain will just be a 48-hour story ... but that's what we thought about Sen. John Ensign's escapades, at least until Mike Ensign's role as payola daddy came into play.

(Thanks to Richard Abowitz for the heads-up on this one.)

A reader informs me that the site LasVegasDowntownNews.com appears to be defunct. I couldn't get it to load either and blogger Jeff Burbank's output was sporadic at the best of times. Has this site gone the way of all flesh? If anybody has the skinny on this, please let S&G know.

"Oh shit!" headline of the day: Seen at Huffington Post, "Harry Reid to take the wheel on health care." That's like finding out the one family member who's certifiably incapable of navigating the driveway is going to pilot the family car up Mount Charleston.

Bounce-back for Macao?

Fri, 21 Aug 2009 17:17:00 -0700

Remember how gambling revenues in Macao during July were up 3% from last year (the first positive comparison this year)? That was soon followed by the news that numbers for the first half of August are even more encouraging still (+20%). Though Macanese casinos are on track for a $1.5 billion August, analysts urge caution, noting that the first half of August '08 was exceptionally weak.

Still: Wherefore this sudden resurgence?

Perhaps it's the delayed effect of a February loophole that allowed Guangdong Province residents to circumvent a ban on travel to Macao on Hong Kong visas. Whatever the case, business should get better still on Sept. 1 when, the Macau Tourism Council says, restrictions on Guangdong Province will be loosened even further. That's music to the ears of every casino boss in Macao, needless to say.

Sheldon Adelson, in particular, has fallen in clover. This revelation comes just as he's putting the finishing touches on a planned IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange (with Steve Wynn following suit). The stock offering, it is hoped, will generate sufficient liquidity to finish a quartet of stalled hotels on the Cotai Strip™ (with five more to come). Right now, the area looks like an outsize version of Miss Havisham's wedding, "leaving swaths of the nascent Cotai Strip covered by steel and concrete skeletons," in the words of Bloomberg News. Macao doesn't need more rooms right now. However, Adelson sure could use the lucre from the casinos onto which the hotels are piggybacked.

But what of Stanley Ho? While the casino baron ails, Bloomberg has unpacked Dr. Ho's June address to G2E Asia, in which he laid into his U.S.-based rivals. “The success of one market model cannot be migrated to another ... Ignoring Macao’s special characteristics and duplicating a Las Vegas or an Atlantic City would not be a successful strategy.” (The article also minces few words about the elder Ho's triad associations.)

Those of us who scoffed at Ho's antediluvian casinos are finding that the comparably ancient oligarch is having the last laugh, even if it may be from his deathbed. “The Macao audience is less focused on the ancillary things around gambling. Stanley, with his wealth of experience, understood that better," says Thornburg Investment Management analyst Alex Motola.

Meanwhile, various Ho clan members may be at daggers drawn. Favorite wife Angela Leong is the perceived successor, but daughters Pansy, Daisy and Maisy Ho (no, I didn't make that up) aren't going to step aside quietly, from the looks of things ... especially since Leong is only two years Pansy's senior. SJM CEO Ambrose So is also being tipped as a potential dark-horse heir to King Stanley's throne.

Business as usual at Hotel Lisboa.

But how would the Macanese government cotton to the notion of Pansy Ho controlling both the SJM concession and half of the MGM one? A third concession could be up for grabs if City of Dreams fails to perform, thereby becoming what Melco Crown Entertainment CEO Lawrence Ho calls his "endgame."

His father's death could also set off a philosophical war between the tried-and-true Stanley Ho business model, time-worn though it may be (and likely to be championed by Leong and So), and the Vegas Lite approach in which Lawrence and Pansy have dabbled. But with the Ho family having its fingers in three casino pies (MGM, Melco, SJM) simultaneously, they'll come out winners no matter which way the pie is sliced.

Stanley Ho's newest and oldest progeny: Grand Lisboa and Hotel Lisboa.

From Malaysia to Monticello. Do you recall those stock sales by Genting Bhd insiders a while back? At the time, it looked as though the money would go toward an acquisition of MGM Grand Macau. However, it now appears the lucre will purchase a stake in struggling Empire Resorts. That's the company whose executives were luxuriating in the low-tax suburbs of Las Vegas -- even though Empire's sole gaming asset was a racetrack in Monticello, N.Y., a full continent away.

City of (better) Dreams

Mon, 17 Aug 2009 11:19:00 -0700

J.P. Morgan has raised its 2010-11 cash flow estimates for Melco Crown Entertainment's $2.4 billion City of Dreams megaresort, bringing projected return on investment into the 11%-11.5% range. That comes in the wake of good news that gambling revenue in Macao was $1.2 billion in July, up 3% from last year. That's the first positive comparison of 2009.

What's still more stunning is July's sudden parity between Macanese operators. Stanley Ho commanded 23% of market share but Las Vegas Sands was nipping at his heels with 22%, followed by Melco Crown (18%), Wynn Resorts (15%) and MGM Mirage, leapfrogging past Galaxy (10%) into fifth place with 12%.

Adelson wins one. Sands CEO Sheldon Adelson has vanquished at least one litigant. A federal district court judge scotched former Adelson flunky Moshe Hananel's claim on a share of Sands' Chinese revenues. The former Interface Partners International exec sought credit for having the Sands-in-Macao idea first and laying the groundwork for Adelson's Chinese overture. Adelson recently paid off one trio of claimants and is still battling former associate Richard Suen after losing badly in court.

Stanley Ho, ailing monarch

Mon, 10 Aug 2009 12:02:00 -0700

Not many of us make headlines by waking up in the morning and saying something. But when the future of over 50% of Macao's casino market hinges on A) your health and B) your plan of succession, and C) your name is Stanley Ho ... well, it's a big deal. Macau Daily Times is reporting that the elderly Ho is both conscious and articulate. However, it's also saying that he needs further surgery to extricate blood clots from his brain. My suspicion that the gambling oligarch suffered a stroke (or something very close thereto) and not a simple slip-and-fall -- was first reported -- is hardly dispelled by this latest news.

For reasons I was in the midst of outlining last Friday, just before the Big Computer Freeze destroyed it all, we're far from out of the woods on this. Also, the gathering of family members around the patriarch's sickbed is -- due to various business agendas -- somewhere between courtiers hovering around an ailing monarch and vultures circling potential prey.

Alas, all that must go onto the back burner until I deal with some outstanding business that includes reviewing L.A. Comedy Club at the Four Queens and Tickled Pink at Planet Hollywood. We had some extra time before the latter last night to contemplate CityCenter. Whether one likes it or not, it's going to make several nearby properties -- I'm looking at you Monte Carlo and especially New York-New York -- look very antiquated, bordering on tacky. With a few exceptions, the Wynn-initation themed resorts are proving to have surprisingly short shelf lives.

There's treachery afoot!

Fri, 07 Aug 2009 18:10:00 -0700

There I was, 90 minutes into composing a piece de résistance of blogging about palace intrigue surrounding Stanley Ho's sickbed ... when a defective link to some Macao TV coverage froze my computer. Dozens of links, paragraph upon paragraph ... all gone, force-quitted into oblivion. It's enough to make one retire to the nearest sickroom. Aaaaarrrrggghhh!

In the future, when I get the notion to engage in long-form blogorrhea, somebody please belabor me with the nearest heavy object until the fit passes.

Casino wars in Macao

Fri, 07 Aug 2009 16:25:00 -0700

Bloomberg's interview with Credit Suisse's Steven Chan is now online and is must-see TV:

Adelson bombing in Pennsylvania; RoboPoker returns; Dissent over Wynn

Thu, 06 Aug 2009 17:26:00 -0700

Both the opening of Sands Bethlehem, and recent expansions of Meadows Racetrack & Casino (+29%) and Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs (+21%) drove an 18.5% increase in slot revenue this July. With $19.6 million in gross revenue, Sands was only good for fifth place, barely behind Mohegan Sun ($19.8 million).

Adelson's new slot parlor was well off the pace set by Philadelphia Park Casino & Racetrack ($30.8 million) and The Meadows ($29.9 million). Harrah's Chester didn't perform too shabbily, either, pulling in $27.3 million from the one-armed bandits. Both it and Philadelphia Park were less than 2% down from their July '08 revenues, putting paid to the theory that Sands Bethlehem would draw -- at least in any significant degree -- from the Philadelphia area. Only nearby Mt. Airy Resort & Casino is taking a serious hit.

Downtown Reno's nicest casino, the spacious Silver Legacy, is taking a big step downmarket by succumbing to the cheesy allure of RoboPoker. Even that bit of good news for PokerTek wasn't enough to keep Aristocrat Leisure from writing down its share of the company.

Steve Wynn is The Man, at least in Macao, according to the controversial Jim Cramer. I agree.

Why then, is Wynn Resorts COO Marc Schorr cashing out at a time when the stock is arguably undervalued? Maybe he's just one more American who got overextended in the go-go Bush Era.

McKee vs. Lerner

Mon, 03 Aug 2009 20:01:00 -0700

Actually, the headline misstates what was a very collegial -- if occasionally dissenting -- exchange of views between Union Gaming Group's Bill Lerner and Yr. Humble Blogger on Jon Ralston's Face to Face show. It was only my second-ever gig as a talking head -- and it shows. (Note to self: Consider Botox injections to paralyze overactive facial muscles.)

The ostensible subject of discussion was newly bankrupt Station Casinos, but it ranged as far afield as Singapore and Macao. Actually, we probably could have taped an entire week's worth of shows without exhausting the topic(s).

Lerner was a perfect gentleman, despite all the snarky things I've written about him in S&G (assuming he even reads it, which I doubt). I could certainly learn a thing or two from his poised on-air demeanor. I also found that, if you're in the middle seat on Face to Face, you need to "cheat" a little to your right and downstage or else you'll be masked in all the wide shots. And, as Ira David Sternberg taught me, don't ever look at the camera.

My ex cathedra pronouncements were, however, overshadowed by my alarmingly jowly appearance. When the video is posted, you will see that I look every one of my 200 lbs. -- and quite a few more! Since the episode isn't available on the Las Vegas Sun Web site yet, here's a preview:

Oh, my brain and mouth parted company on at least one occasion. I thought I said MGM Mirage would probably offload The Mirage for "one and a half billion to two billion dollars." What emerged, though, was "a half-billion to two billion dollars." So Jim Murren, wherever you are, I do not think you'd part with The Mirage for a (comparatively) measly $500 million ... just so we're good on that.

At least the high-angle shot at the end missed my bald spot. Thank God for small favors. The rebroadcast is starting; time to find out if I still know how to operate a VCR.

Douchebags on parade

Mon, 03 Aug 2009 16:06:00 -0700

With a crowd like this ...

... is it any wonder that The Rio's Sapphire Pool became a PR catastrophe (complete with rogues' gallery)?

Too bad that Bloomberg News doesn't permit its video reports to be embedded. Credit Suisse analyst Gabriel Chan gives an interesting, fact-packed report on Macao. It's a somewhat long interview segment, but stay with it because the good stuff comes near the end. That's where Chan explains why Stanley Ho is able to build a new casino for only $200 million and how come the much-hyped relaxation of visa restrictions is still at least four months away.

Aztar deal the worst ever: it's quantifiable

Tue, 28 Jul 2009 12:39:00 -0700

When he acquired Aztar Corp., back in 2006, Columbia Sussex CEO William J. Yung III also became one of the company's debtors. So what's his $36 million worth today? According to the Wall Street Journal, 100 grand or less. If that weren't enough to make the ColSux/Aztar deal the all-time biggest casino-sector wipeout of the last 15 years, consider that Carl Icahn's "$200 million" credit bid (i.e., no money down) was placed with debt acquired at 27 cents on the dollar. So Icahn has himself a new casino for a tidy $54 million outlay.

In a less-reported development, Icahn also gained a controlling position in Tropicana Entertainment. Without either its Atlantic City or Las Vegas Trops, it'd be a car without an engine, a gaggle of riverboats and motels. Exactly where this leaves CEO Scott Butera and what role he'll play remains an open question. Hopefully, either his or Icahn's first move in Atlantic City will be to replace floundering Trop General Manager Mark Giannantonio (a Yung crony) with someone more up to the job.

Movement at Cosmo: The GM of Caesars Palace, John Unwin, has resigned. He'll become CEO of the stalled Cosmopolitan in October. While it's still unclear under whose aegis the casino will be run, Unwin's hiring is the first concrete move to get some gaming expertise on board since Deutsche Bank seized the property.

Whining in Macao: Those two "integrated resorts" in Singapore haven't even opened yet and won't for another half a year, but Stanley Ho (whose venerable Hotel Lisboa is seen above) already has his panties in a bunch. According to Bloomberg News, the ancient casino oligarch has been wringing his hands about the burdensome, "serious issue" posed by Macao's 39% tax rate.

Boy, Singapore must be a more serious threat than I'd given it credit, if it's got a Communist Party suck-up like Dr. Ho all a-twitter and taking issue with the government. He's still in better shape than his American rivals; the attempt to graft Vegas-style megaresorts onto Macao has left them badly exposed to anemic market conditions. Ho's gambling-centric strategy gives him less cause for worry.

Today Singapore, tomorrow the U.S.? Even while lender's remorse has paralyzed American banks and stalled any hopes of "unbundling" the U.S. casino industry, diversification may be coming from an unlikely corner. Malaysia's Genting Bhd, riding a sustained runup in its stock, has $2 billion in the kitty, is raising more and could pump $7 billion into casino acquisitions.

That isn't to say there aren't a lot of "ifs" and "buts." Still, Genting's fundamentals appear far more sound than those of say, Las Vegas Sands. It's also in a position to deal a serious blow to Sands in Singapore. Not only will its Sentosa Island casino-resort open before Marina Bay Sands, but customers who "subscribe" to a $1,388/year entrance fee to one casino or another must play exclusively at that casino for the year. Once again, Sheldon Adelson's inability to finish a megaresort on schedule threatens to bite him in the butt.

Packer steps in it again

Fri, 24 Jul 2009 12:02:00 -0700

After frequent demurrals, the Victoria government has 'fessed up that it was on the receiving end of ham-fisted lobbying by Crown Casino owner James Packer. A delicate quid pro quo (higher taxes in return for more table games) was being negotiated. But, not wanting to leave anything to chance, Packer personally besieged both Victoria's premier and treasurer in re Crown.

The state comes out of this looking worse than Packer, though, as witnessed by this weaselly attempt at damage control: "The Government is adamant that any expansion of Crown's gaming tables was under discussion for a long time and that poker was a less addictive form of gambling than poker machines." [Emphasis added] So I guess that makes it all copacetic, right?

Lawrence Ho & James Packer: less to smile about these days

Hammered in Macao. Packer's new City of Dreams is getting stomped by nearby Venetian Macao. VIP baccarat play for Melco Crown Entertainment properties was off 19% -- which is even worse than its sounds when you count on it for 60% of your total gambling revenues. Mass-market baccarat play was 12% up, so there's some consolidation. (Meanwhile, in some parallel universe, the Wall Street Journal is nattering on about a "brighter outlook" for Macao, even as revenue continues to decline and City of Dreams flops. Visitation was -16% in June and the Mainland China subset of that was -22%.)

A good thing for Sheldon Adelson that Venetian Macao's play is so strong. Bloomberg News reports that 85% of Las Vegas Sands' Macanese revenue is casino-derived ... which ought to raise serious questions about Adelson's hotel-, retail- and convention-premised Cotai Strip™ business model.

Quote of the Day

Wed, 22 Jul 2009 12:59:00 -0700

“Wynn is simply much cleaner, safer and a smarter play [than Las Vegas Sands] on gambling in Macau.” -- CNBC Mad Money host Jim Cramer, warming toward potential Wynn Resorts and Sands IPOs on the Hong Kong stock market. What's not to like about Wynn when you consider its uncanny streak of luck in Macanese baccarat play?

Vegas (isn't the only place that) needs Carmen Electra

Fri, 17 Jul 2009 14:51:00 -0700

Occasionally, S&G readers allow me to share their off-list bon mots with the general public. Such is the case with one Pacific Rim-based gentlewoman who's familiar with the sights and sounds of Macao. Evidently, it's a place where voluptuousness is craved all the more for being in short supply. Hence, the gyrations of a certain Carmen Electra at Crazy Horse Paris prompted this sage observation:

"Macau sure could do with some of this type of sizzle"

No doubt ... but we need Ms. Electra here. (And aren't you gents glad S&G was given a non-gratutious rationale to post yet another photo of Carmen?)

On a serious note, the Electra guest gig stirred up local media "buzz" far out of proportion to its duration. In terms of oomph for the buck, it's given the Holly Madison push at Planet Hollywood a serious run for its money: more evidence that stars are born, not fabricated. Whatever one thinks of Ms. Electra's troubled personal life, she's a "stage creature" and Vegas could use a few more right now.

Supporting the troops. Big ups to the El Cortez for giving $15 dining credits to active-duty servicemen (and women) at its Café Cortez and Flame steakhouse. Our military is grossly underpaid for guarding our liberties (such as appreciating Carmen Electra), so anything the casino industry does by way of a "thank you" deserves S&G's salute.

If you're in the Reno area and are an aficianado of the stellar cable TV service known as Cinemax, I consider it my civic duty to alert you to the following fact: Monique Parent (aka "The Thinking Man's Sex Symbol") will be spokesmodeling -- or something of that ilk -- at a Reno-area Costco next week.

Among the prolific Parent's many titles is the Citizen Kane of erotic films, Play Time ... or so they tell me. <cough> So if you've admired Ms. Parent's fine, wry thesping in Dark Secrets or The Key to Sex, stop by and show your gratitude.

Just a suggestion.

Case Bets: F'bleau, Adelson, Oscar

Fri, 17 Jul 2009 14:03:00 -0700

Whether it's the banks or the subcontractors, somebody's going to take a big screwing at Fontainebleau. That's the nub of a new lawsuit, whereby developer Jeffrey Soffer asserts that Turnberry West Construction (which he also owns) has superior repayment rights to those of the project's backers.

I believe this is called, "One hand washes the other." However, the legal issues involved make fascinating reading. Some new-to-Vegas casino developers have screwed the pooch and eventually come out smelling like roses (Sheldon Adelson, for one). I don't Soffer's going to make into that elite club. And you can forget about Big Bleau opening before July 1, 2010, at the very least.

Speaking of Sheldon ... results at his new Sands Bethlehem continue to disappoint. Adelson's tradition of half-assing his casino openings, dribbling the product onto the market, may finally be catching up with him. Marina Bay Sands should be the acid test of this managerial style. (Personally, I believe it's going to be Adelson's Waterloo, at least to the extent that the casino is expected to drive everything else.)

Sands Macao: Sheldon's best bet

Ironically, it was the comparatively "quick and dirty" Sands Macao, built for considerably less than any other Adelson casino, that has been his biggest hit. The cost-to-date of Sands Bethlehem, by the way, has been revised downward to $675 million (from $743 million), which ought to help the ROI numbers. However, early predictions that Sands Bethelehem was going to siphon business from the Philadelphia area were clearly unrealistic and should have been reported with greater skepticism.

Berzon: caped crusader

Truth, justice and the American way have one less champion in the Las Vegas area now that Pulitzer Prize-winning Alexandra Berzon has been hired by the Wall Street Journal. Good for Berzon, better still for the WSJ. But who will keep a gimlet eye on OSHA enforcement and the CityCenter clusterfuck now? (And she was moving into gaming coverage, too ... the prospect of a Berzon/Liz Benston/Rick Velotta trifecta would have dwarfed all other casino reportage in this burg.) With the loss of Berzon and editor Drex Heikes, the Las Vegas Sun is suddenly in a world of hurt.

Oscar gets whacked. Somebody's fantasy, anyway. (Were there any thumbless graffiti taggers in the house? Homeless advocates? Civil libertarians?) Hizzoner was the celeb-victim at the reopening of Marriage Can Be Murder in its new digs at Fitzgeralds. MCBM recently left the Four Queens and a good move it was, seeing as the 4Q is at risk of being evicted. Movie veteran Goodman (Casino) evidently forgot whatever he learned from The Master (aka Martin Scorcese) and didn't hit his "mark."

As for MCBM, a dinner-theatre show, I can't say it compared favorably with the ones we did at Grinnell Community Theater. I was the "juvenile lead" in several shows there and humbly submit that our gung-ho amateur troupe could have done better. Hey, we "killed" with Ten Nights in a Barroom. That thing could have run for six months, easily.

Penn finally makes a move

Tue, 14 Jul 2009 12:31:00 -0700

Well, let's not get all excited yet. Penn National has bought a puny stake in Morris Goldstein & Assoc., a slot distributor. It's a bit of kabuki theatre whereby Penn and executives CEO Peter Carlino, President Tim Wilmott, CFO Bill Clifford and veep Robert Ippolito can go through the licensing process now, just in case they feel like acquiring something significant down the road.

Mind you, Donald Trump did the same thing several years ago, by dint of a buying a stake in Rivieria Holdings. Nothing ever came of it.

Clouds over Macao. Hey, dictatorial Chinese Communist overlords in Peking, feel free to loosen up those visa restrictions to Macao anytime now. Visitation was down 42.5% in May. Hotel occupancy was also off 18%. One small bright spot was that Taiwanese visitation continues to ramp up, however modestly (i.e., 3%).

Vegas needs Carmen Electra

Tue, 14 Jul 2009 11:10:00 -0700

There's a sentence I never thought I'd live to type. But after seeing Ms. Electra bumping and grinding, and generally giving her all to a pair of solo turns in MGM Grand's otherwise fembot-oriented La Femme aka Crazy Horse Paris ~~Crazy Girls~~, this woman definitely deserves a modest venue where she can bring the raunch to the Strip on a regular basis. True, her routines were not always spot-on and her dirigible-size funbags could use some deflation (although we're not quite in the Holly Madison league of grotesquerie). But she's got animal magnetism that would have been wasted as Mel B.'s sidekick or Hans Klok's beard.

As The Sun chronicled: "Carmen's naked antics make MEL B's appearance in rival Vegas burlesque revue, Peepshow, look tame in comparison."

That they did.

Wynn degraded. Analysts at J.P. Morgan are downplaying their expectations for Wynn Resorts, particularly in Macao. There, Morgan has shaved $11 million off its cash flow projections for 2Q09. Slipping REVPAR (if -28% is a "slip"), low slot handle and "flat table volumes" are blamed.

On the Strip, Morgan only expects minor softness (to the tune of -$4 million) in Wynncore business. Cash flow projections for next year have been trimmed by $9 million in Vegas and $30 million, as the analysts have modest expectations of Encore Macau. The Morgan analysands remain bullish on Las Vegas Sands, though. Somewhere, Sheldon Adelson is having a moment of gless.

Quote of the Day

Wed, 08 Jul 2009 02:56:00 -0700

"Forget the Cirque du Soleil show Zaia, which was quite good but played in a theater that was approximately 30 percent full on a Thursday night. And forget those poor saps trying to sell one high-end watch per day. As long as those tables remain full, which they generally are in the world's largest casino, it would be inaccurate to describe business in Macau as truly slow." -- AGEM Executive Director Marcus Prater, in the new issue of Casino Executive Management.

Moulin Rouge: Whoops!

Tue, 07 Jul 2009 14:27:00 -0700

The Moulin Rouge development that will never be.

Oh dear, oh dear. Seems like the City of Las Vegas unwittingly obstructed its own arson probe into the demise of the Moulin Rouge when it allowed the property to be immediately demolished. Sloppily, the actual tearing-down was farmed out to the property's former owners, who happened to have a demolition contractor on site during the blaze.

The fire's cause remains speculative and no finding of arson has been made -- and now perhaps never will. But the city's decision not only looks overhasty, it was (at the very least) cavalier to entrust it to dispossessed Moulin Rouge Development Corp. and not new owner Olympic Coast Development. The latter's prexy, John Hoss, told the Las Vegas Sun he found the chain of events "a little odd" and "a weird coincidence." Since Hoss is only trying to corral a $100,000 insurance claim, the city could get stuck with an asbestos-removal tab as high as $1.1 million.

Can they screw this up any further? Is the Pope Catholic?

F'bleau-minus. The bankrupt resort's developer, Jeffrey Soffer, proposes some unspecified corner-cutting to get the project back on budget. ("On budget" being a very relative term where Fontainebleau is concerned.) Combine this with the allegedly secret "Enhanced" costs for F'bleau's highly touted amenities and the moral of the story is that what you see on the Web site or in the design renderings has a tenuous relationship to what you'll actually get.

At least Soffer is offering to chip in some equity, unlike former investor James Packer, who scuttled away from F'bleau the moment the chips were down.

Gator on the loose. One of Las Vegas' larger parks got a lot more interesting yesterday when a 42-inch-long alligator turned up. Instead of entrusting the spunky fellow to a local zoo or perhaps one of our local casino-based wildlife habitats, the Wildlife Dept. killed him. Bastards. I hope they never get their mitts on our beloved Mojo ...

Mojo, the monarch of Huntington Press.

Speaking of James Packer ... griefs are arriving in battalions (thanks, Mr. Shakespeare) for City of Dreams. In terms of mass-market business, Venetian Macao is eating City of Dreams' lunch. "Despite 41,000 people walking through City of Dreams every day since it opened in the first week of June, most of the visitors were just admiring the decor instead of sitting down at its tables for a game of baccarat," reports The Age.

Not only is one analyst projecting a 15% earnings shortfall for Melco Crown Entertainment, another has tripled his loss-per-share projection. J.P. Morgan is also revising its 2010 cash-flow projections on the $2.1 billion megaresort to 13% ROI, down from 17%. (That's still a better return on investment than you can get on the Las Vegas Strip.)

Did Steve Wynn take Packer to the cleaners when sold him 37% of a casino concession for $1 billion? Wynn had a chance to size up Packer and deemed him not yet ready for the big leagues. Score another one for El Steve.

City of Nightmares?

Sun, 05 Jul 2009 17:29:00 -0700

Melco Crown International finds itself with the dubious distinction of having opened a megaresort and lost market share. The projected 7%, if accurate, would not only be 50% of what analysts expected, it could push Melco Crown behind MGM Grand Paradise and into last place in Macao. If I read Ian Sutton's footnotes correctly, Melco Crown is losing money on its VIP-player commissions at City of Dreams.

(Erratum: My mistake. City of Dreams is simply $40 million short of its projected rolling-chip play. The commission rate is a fixed cost.)

Meanwhile ...

The long arm of Stanley Ho reaches forth, extending his empire into the Pacific. Today Tinian, tomorrow ... ?

Stormy weather

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:40:00 -0700

It may be monsoon season in Las Vegas but there's a typhoon blowing through Macao's casino economy. A series of bulletins from J.P. Morgan outline a worrisome trajectory for China's gambling enclave.

City of Dreams: a flop

June 23: The South China Morning Post reports service cutbacks in Macanese air traffic during January-March. Low-cost carrier Air Asia held steady, but China Eastern Airline scrapped all flights, Xiamen Airline slashed service by 59%, followed by Malaysia Airlines (-38%). Single-digit declines were noted at Air Macau (-9%) and Viva Macau (-4%). Although recently de-licensed carrier East Star had been shedding flights (-40%), competitors did not appear to be moving to fill the void.

June 24: Macao's Special Administrative Region Statistics & Census Service reports a 20% visitation decline in May, to 1.6 million tourists. Of those, fewer than half were from the mainland (-27%) and 55% were day-trippers. Only 13% are coming from outside Hong Kong, Taiwan or the mainland.

July 1: News agency Lusa has preliminary revenue numbers for June (the first month for City of Dreams) and the comparisons, by Macao standards, are terrible: -17%, for $1.05 billion. So far, the casinos are tracking ahead of the government's revenue projections -- which were pretty dire ($892K/month) already.

There's a silver lining for Sheldon Adelson, whose Sands Macao and Venetian Macao rebounded, running Stanley Ho's myriad casinos a close second in market share, 26% to 30%. Wynn Macau fell toward the pack, which was as follows: Wynn 14% (a humiliating setback; it had been only three points behind Las Vegas Sands in May), Galaxy 12%, Melco Crown International down a point to 9%, and MGM Mirage bringing up the rear, as always, with 8%.

Sands Macao: Adelson's best-ever investment

Buoyed by Sands' Macao numbers, Morgan analysts are bullish on Adelson, mainly because of "reasonable near-term and achievable expectations for its LV Strip properties and our belief that its LV properties are outperforming its peers." Just when you think Sheldon's painted himself into a corner, he seems to find a means of escape ... which may be why some of us were less skeptical of the financial hurdles facing Sands Bethlehem and the Cotai Strip™ than we should have been.

There seems to be a school of belief that if one keeps saying that visa restrictions from mainland China to Macao are about to be relaxed, it will miraculously happen. Not if Peking muckety-mucks keep seeing headlines like this. More to the point, bailout money that was intended to induce Chinese banks into writing more loans, thereby stimulating production, is flowing to the casino tables instead. That's a scenario highly reminiscent of the circumstances that led Peking to crack down on Macanese traffic several times already.

Don't do it, Alex!

Thu, 25 Jun 2009 18:29:00 -0700

Noooooooo!

That was my reaction upon reading the Mike Weatherford shocker that the Tropicana Las Vegas may be putting many of its future entertainment eggs in the basket of Anthony Cools. The latter produced an ultra-craptacular topless show, Ooh La La at Paris Las Vegas.

Shoehorned into a large, low-ceilinged banquet room, Ooh La La had terrible sightlines (kind of a problem for a T&A show), pushy ushers and charmless performers. Were it not for Raw Talent Live, it would have been the worst show I've ever seen in Las Vegas. Cools has been threatening to bring it back ... please, Alex Yemenidjian, stop him before he "presents" again.

Our long civic nightmare continues. Five more years! Five more years! Yes, Luxor has extended Carrot Top to 2015. Mr. Top accepted the honor in typical family-friendly style.

While I'm under the knife at the dentist next Tuesday, Lance Burton will be fielding questions at Monte Carlo. The venue alone makes the nature of the announcement self-evident. Three cheers to MGM Mirage for pulling back from the brink and not evicting Burton at a time when he's been getting some of the best reviews of his career. There was nothing like the fumbling Criss F. Angel to make people appreciate just how much better Burton seems to be.

Reading Room axed. You know those three cheers for MGM? Make them three Bronx cheers. "Literature? Pah! We no like! Make way for shiny trinkets!"

Why launder money in Las Vegas or Macao when there's ... the Dominican Republic?

Peepshow 2.0 tonight. The pain of yesterday's dental procedure is likely to be but a gentle zephyr compared to the near-certain ordeal that lies ahead. For reasons too convoluted to explain, my review won't appear in CityLife until July 9. With luck, the show won't have closed by then.

Case Bets: California, Packer pickle, Macao pix, Holy Cow!, Singapore, RoboPoker, etc.

Thu, 25 Jun 2009 16:24:00 -0700

Editor's note: An item involving Crown Ltd. contained factual errors, which have been corrected (as you'll see). I apologize for the misinformation. My thanks to the reader who pulled my head out of my @$$.

California gamblers stay and play ... at home. While the recession has made some inroads on tribal-casino revenue in the Golden State, it's losing less ground than Las Vegas. Some of those Vegas losses will eventually be recouped, but this day of reckoning was bound to come.

Unlike Las Vegas, which is arguably suffering from having too many competing profit centers within each resort, California casino bosses interviewed still view entertainment as either a loss leader or a one-off. I never thought I'd say this but Las Vegas could use a little more "old school" thinking right now.

James Packer, the guy who can't catch a break, is finds his casino company in even more hot water, in a case of the sins of the father being visited upon the son. The plot surrounding Crown Ltd.'s courtship of a self-banned high roller (and convicted felon) is thickening considerably. Seems paterfamilias Kerry Packer may have been pressuring crony John Williams to get pathological gambler Harry Kakavas back to the tables.

Williams, for his part, rolled on the late Mr. Packer, ~~who's now got some 'splainin' to do~~. ~~No wonder the young Packer's pursuit of Cannery Casino Resorts collapsed like a pup tent.~~ The money quote, if you will, is: "[Williams] said it was common for patrons to rip up [self-exclusion] cards and that, in his view, Mr Kakavas's loss of $2.3 million in 28 minutes was recreational gambling."

If you lose $82,000 per minute, it's not recreation. It's degenerate gambling.

Globe-trotting Ian Sutton is back from Macao and G2E Asia. The sights! The sounds! The smog!

(Update: Ian says it's not smog but mist, as forthcoming videos will show.)

Holy Cow II: GlobeSt.com, normally a continent source of business news, is shocked -- shocked! -- that Steve Johnson's proposed casino on the former Holy Cow site will include a Walgreens. Smelling salts, stat!

But there are some interesting revelations, For one, the reason that Palazzo's flagship retailer is also a Walgreens is that it was a compromise Sheldon Adelson effected with the landowner ... Steve Johnson. (The mere fact of Adelson compromising is newsworthy enough.)

Turns out, that purchase may set the record for an on-Strip acquisition, at an alleged $50 million per acre -- Phil Ruffin, eat your heart out! Johnson also paid through the nose for the Holy Cow site. The price? $23.5 million/acre for land north of Sahara Avenue. Egad!

Columbia Sussex's casino portfolio continues to crumble. Tropicana Entertainment parent Tropicana Casinos & Resorts is selling its Amelia Belle riverboat (thereby forfeiting the New Orleans market) barely two years after the ship was acquired. Amelia Belle is former Harrah's Entertainment vessel, having been Bally's Belle of Orleans.

It's a canny strategic move for new owner Peninsula Gaming, which now has a Louisiana riverboat as well as a racino and four OTBs, not to mention a small flotilla of Midwest riverboats. TropEnt CEO Scott Butera, meanwhile, has less and less over which to preside. At the moment, his ambit consists of four riverboats, mostly in tertiary markets, two casinos in Laughlin and one on Lake Tahoe. Is this TropEnt's future: A succession of piecemeal asset sales? Sure looks that way.

Bad news for Sheldon Adelson. Over in Singapore, rival Genting's mega-budget Resorts World at Sentosa is letting news outlets like Bloomberg know that 60% of the project will ready for a soft opening in early 2010 (i.e., February-March). Projected attendance figures have been revised 20% downward.

In a rapier thrust at Marina Bay Sands, a Genting exec said the company was having regular meetings to make sure it came in on its $4.5 billion budget. Full completion of Sentosa is projected for 2012. Sands is going to have a sufficiently tough time making its nut without Genting crashing the party so soon ... to say nothing of the fact that Genting enjoys much higher brand equity in that corner of the world.

RoboPoker has risen from the grave. Electronic table games have been OK'd for eight New York State racinos. Though the Lege hasn't signed off, the Empire State's lottery board is confident it has the authority to make this move unilaterally. Poor Atlantic City is dying the death of a thousand cuts.

Congratulations to Penn National. It's scheduled to inaugurate a new pavilion for Empress Joliet today. A March 20 fire resulted in a three-month closure of the boat and substantial fiscal hardship for Penn National. In a noble gesture, CEO Peter Carlino kept employees on the payroll even though his ship was hors de combat. Capt. Carlino, S&G salutes you.

Seven essential Web sites ... and other news

Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:23:00 -0700

Yes, you too can can be a gaming-industry blogger, with the help of but a few absolutely indispensable Web sites. The ones that I check Monday-Friday without fail (and, as they say on Dancing with the Stars, "in no particular order") are:

GamingFloor.com: The best aggregator of casino news from around the globe, especially since Editor Ian Sutton has an eye for the bizarre. Tons of eye-catching video, too, plus Ian's own on-the-spot reporting from far-flung venues like G2E Asia.

DieIsCast.com: Very eclectic but Dr. David G. Schwartz pounces on fascinating (and not very obvious) stories, often making droll pop-culture connections ... which frequently involve Star Trek.

TwoWayHardThree: Terrific discussions of casino architecture, intermingled with scoops that eagle-eyed moderator Hunter Hillegas snaps up -- not infrequently beating the local papers to the punch. His readers/forum contributors are some of the best-informed you'll encounter.

Las Vegas Sun: You're not going to find better gaming coverage this side of the Wall Street Journal and labor reporter Michael Mishak is one of the finest in the business. (The R-J's pathologically anti-union stance is probably to blame for its feeble coverage of workplace issues, as that paper's editorial-page psychoses leach into its news priorities.) Unlike its cross-town rival, the Sun doesn't take its marching orders from the Chamber of Commerce, either.

Press of Atlantic City: In the land of the blind, the one-eyed paper is king. Oh, and Press: Your new "reader-friendly" redesign blows donkeys. But if there's news a-brewin' on the Boardwalk, this is the first place to look. For more selective -- but in-depth-- coverage, Suzette Parmley in the Philadelphia Inquirer is tops in the region.

Vegas Happens Here: No morning is complete without a jolt of news from the indefatigable Steve Friess. His blog isn't casino-centric but he's quick to spot a breaking story or one that might fly under the radar ... and his Min-and-Bill relationship to Steve Wynn makes for tremendous ongoing fun. Lots of pictures, too.

Las Vegas Review-Journal: Only because it exists (which, existentially, is open to debate). Like the elephant in your parlor, it must be acknowledged and sometimes its slave-driven reporters turn in exceptional work, despite their editors' best [sic] efforts to beat them down. (Inexcusably, last week the entire gaming staff was detailed to chronicle seemingly every hand played at the World Series of Poker.) The paper's shining achievement was Joan Whitely's exposé of dangerous corner-cutting at Harrah's Entertainment. Relative newcomer Arnold Knightly has ferreted out some laudable scoops, too. Howard Stutz, look to thy laurels!

Honorable mentions go to three sites that I can't always check on a daily basis, but which should not pass without notice ...

Pechanga.net: An exhaustive (and sometimes exhausting) aggregration -- but it's a sieve which captures many tribal and regional gaming stories that would otherwise escape notice.

VegasTodayandTomorrow.com: Anybody -- and I mean anybody -- interested in the history and future of Sin City should have this site bookmarked. Mark Adams pores over the Web and any other source at his reach, presenting what bids fair to be the definitive online museum of Las Vegas' evolution. Our "Question of the Day" about the never-built Conrad was greatly aided by Adams' preexisting work. And the Coke-vs.-Pepsi map is must-see Internet.

The Movable Buffet: More showbiz- than bidness-focused. However, in a Vegas blogosphere infested with sycophants, Richard Abowitz provides a needed corrective to the local fawning over the celebutard of the moment. If you wish to following the continuing meltdown of Criss F. Angel step by step, Abowitz is your man. He even makes a colloquy with Holly Madison interesting. The chap's a miracle worker!

Farrah Fawcett, R.I.P.: One of the greatest of Seventies icons has died, at age 62. I was always more of a Cheryl Ladd fan myself, but Fawcett showed herself to be seriously "misunderestimated," especially in her Oscar-worthy turn as Robert Duvall's adulterous wife in The Apostle. Haven't seen it? Rent it! Ditto the severely underrated See You in the Morning, a still from which graces the Los Angeles Times obituary. Speaking of movies ...

Scott Walker 30 Century Man: A rock-and-roller who draws frequent comparisons to Samuel Beckett? Meet reclusive American expat Scott Walker and discover that the analogy has surprising validity. His handsome baritone is also one of the most compelling singing voices to emerge from the U.S. And speaking of singing ...

Patti LuPone's Orleans gig last weekend may just be the downpayment on a long-term deal. If so, it'd be one of the best shows in town and it fits the Orleans Showroom hand in glove. If only LuPone would drop from her set list that anthem to codependency, Oliver!'s "As Long As He Needs Me." She unloads so many mannerisms upon it that it's like Bill Sikes pummeling Nancy. Still and all, I'd take it over a second visit to American Superstars (also reviewed). Aaaaaaaaaaannndddd speaking of shows ...

I've received a critique of the Harmon Theater's new Monday-night, witching-hour potpourri, After the Show. While I'm not at liberty to quote any of it, suffice it to say that After the Show is described in such hallucinatory and pejorative terms that the bottom line is, even if you're a local resident and thus get in free, you've still paid too much. Better we should stay home and watch Jon Stewart, with a Conan O'Brien chaser.

Danny Gans: Still dead -- but not yet resting in peace. For the truly morbid, the R-J has published the 911 call made by his widow (as did the Sun). Listen if you care to; I didn't.

MGM: Deal or no deal?

Wed, 17 Jun 2009 17:55:00 -0700

MGM Mirage CEO Jim Murren is re-mulling asset sales of MGM Grand Detroit, Gold Strike (Tunica, Miss.) and Beau Rivage. But all Strip assets are definitively off the market (yes, even Slots A Fun). Since the Detroit and Tunica casinos are already encumbered with CityCenter-related debt, presumably Murren would transfer those mortgages to some or all of the "Mandalay mile." As far as I know, those three casinos are still unencumbered. The Detroit resort would be a real "trophy asset" for any potential buyer ... presuming that banks are more inclined to lend than they were(n't) the last time Murren shopped this trio around.

The Las Vegas Review-Journal took a good look at MGM's Giza deal -- and it's even better than initially thought. Not only will the company collect management and franchise fees, it also gets a cut of any profits. If there's a downside here, I'm too myopic to see it.

MGM wouldn't sell Monte Carlo when Jack Binion came calling. One presumes this had more to do with potentially being able to extend CityCenter into Monte Carlo, rather than Jack's money not being good enough for MGM. However, if the company really cares about the property, why are they slowly letting it go to seed? The Brew Pub will close on July 12.

Also ... our LVA research team has discovered that no further Lance Burton performances are scheduled. This seemingly writes finis to his long relationship with Monte Carlo. Is it just an expedient way to save money or was Burton's unpardonable sin to get very good reviews from the local dailies right after Criss F. Angel laid an $85 million egg with Believe? Burton out and Angel in? That's just not right.

"IUER"? WTF? Don't call Melco Crown International's new City of Dreams a "casino." Melcospeak for the new pleasure place is "integrated urban entertainment resort." At least Steve Wynn's "casino-based destination resort" coinage rolled off the tongue a little more felicitously. On second thought, just call it "a casino."

Holy cow! The husk of the late, lamented Holy Cow Brew Pub & Casino (home of the best beer in Las Vegas) is proposed for redevelopment -- again. It was briefly the site-to-be of the phantom Ivana condo tower, one of the more egregious examples of condo "vaporware" during the recent bubble. Arizona- and New Mexico-based developers intend to tip the old Cow and replace her with a low-rise, low-cost (no hotel) casino.

The Strip needs some fresh mid-market casinos and this one could be it. But why make your anchor tenant a Walgreens when it's the flagship retailer ... of Palazzo. We sure could use the jobs, too, what with unemployment hitting record levels in Nevada. A good thing that Gov. Jim Gibbons was shamed into accepting federal funding for the jobless.

No Surprise Dept.: So the Moulin Rouge is (literally) toast and arson is suspected. The fire happened the day after a bankruptcy auction found no takers for the property.

Obama backpedals (sidepedals?) on gay rights. If he wants to give the country change it can believe in, how about revoking the profoundly un-American policy of throwing our LGBT brothers and sisters out of the military? If they've volunteered to lay down their lives for Old Glory, they're better people than me. And if Harry Truman is remembered for nothing else, he'll always be the president who integrated the military with a stroke of a pen. Does President Obama have Truman-like intenstinal fortitude?

One of the vilest of major-league baseball players back in the Eighties was slow-moving, philandering, showboating slugger Mel Hall. But we never knew just how loathsome he was. Good luck in the slammer, Mel.

Macao" rises again?

Wed, 17 Jun 2009 16:11:00 -0700

Block out the shopworn, mostly useless generalities coming from Las Vegas Sands and groove to Macao's scintillating casinos, recoil from its thick blanket of smog, and take some heart from Credit Suisse's prediction of an upturn in VIP play in the Chinese casino protectorate.

A contemporaneous Australian TV report -- which can't be embedded, alas -- was even more striking, especially in the stunning contrast between the sleek architectural beauty of Melco Crown International's new flagship, City of Dreams, and the fugliness of Sheldon Adelson's nearby monoliths. Cheers to Melco Crown for bringing a needed infusion of taste to the Cotai Strip™.

Land of the Pharaohs

Tue, 16 Jun 2009 15:49:00 -0700

My attempt to answer a reader's question about MGM Mirage's franchise deal in Gaza, Egypt, fell victim to LVA's Comment-Eating Server, so here goes ...

Unlike Station Casinos shopping for dog tracks in Massachusetts while it's poor-mouthing employees and investors alike -- or Harrah's Entertainment batting its eyelashes at Stanley Ho -- MGM is doing the right thing, IMO. It's diversifying a revenue stream that's overly reliant on Las Vegas.

True, the official phrase "will provide ... brand fees" is rife with ambiguity (and I've got a query out to New Giza). Obviously, it's a better deal if MGM is the fee collector. Beyond that, I can't see a downside to hiring out the company's considerable hotel experience and pocketing a management fee in return. MGM is being strategically creative and I applaud them for it.

MGM hedges China bet

Fri, 05 Jun 2009 15:32:00 -0700

It looks like MGM Mirage is exploring its options for a life-after-Macao scenario. It's not only keeping a watching brief on Japan and even contemplating the scandal-ridden Philippines market, it's making a full-court press in Taiwan. There are two interesting qualifiers to MGM's exploration of what we used to call Nationalist China.

One is that it'd be involved as a franchisor and operator-for-hire, not investing in the casino proper (an arrangement with more upside than what the company currently enjoys in Macao). The other is that among the potential stumbling blocks noted by MGM exec Lloyd Nathan is "whether mainland Chinese tourists would be allowed into the casinos." Intentionally or not, that certainly makes it sound like MGM is considering Tawain as a fallback position if it has to evacuate Macao.

Las Vegas nears bottom: Visitor numbers show some hope-inspiring metrics. If May numbers are as good as state officials are hinting, we may actually start to climb out of this trough.

Reid rewarded, Trop rescued

Wed, 03 Jun 2009 15:47:00 -0700

... Sen. Harry Reid's (D-NV) efforts on behalf of the casino industry have not gone unrewarded. If you can follow this formatting garble, you'll see that his donors include not only Tim & Tom, late of the Golden Nugget, but also several reliably Republican casino CEOs.

Even the Fertitta Brothers have chipped in, which is the least they could do after the Senate Majority Leader shepherded a provision that incentivizes companies to buy back distressed debt ... which Station Casinos has in abundance. All of which means that Sharron Angle and any other GOP challenger will have to build up a war chest from other industries. The coffers of Big Gaming -- with possible exception of Sheldon Adelson's kitty -- are slamming shut. The industry has taken sides and put its money on Reid.

Yemenidjian is in the house. Pending the stamp of approval for the Nevada Gaming Commission, all systems are "go" for Alex Yemenidjian to take the reins of the Tropicana Las Vegas. The feeling at the Trop must be akin to that of a besieged garrison finally seeing a relief column marching its way.

The former MGM Grand boss is saying all the right things. His backer, Onex Corp., will invest $100 million (or more) in the property, which has suffered manifest neglect. Current operator Tropicana Entertainment's capex budget was fairly puny, symbolic of CEO Scott Butera's halfhearted commitment to the LV Trop.

Under Yemenidjian, the casino will be extended to encompass the ends of the two pedestrian bridges. Two new eateries and a nightclub are planned. No word yet about a new evening show (or about chasing the prostitutes, pimps and -- worst of all -- timeshare peddlers from the premises). But Yemenidjian has too much reputation at stake to simply continue the stagnation that has been the Trop's status quo for more years than I care to remember.

(Correction: Yemenidjian plans to lower the bridge, not raise the river. Which is to say that the pedestrian bridges will be extended to reach the casino, not the other way around.)

When Yemenidjian was (unsuccessfully) pitching an Illinois casino -- also backed by Onex -- his prospective management team included two Gulf Coast veterans: Joe Billhimer and Karen Sock, late of Hard Rock Biloxi and Harrah's Grand Biloxi, respectively. Both are heavy hitters and Sock, in particular, is overdue for a Vegas posting. Here's hoping Yemenidjian brings them here. Better late than never ... and the Trop needs some serious brainpower.

"We really mean it this time." Another day, another "Las Vegas Sands has the capital to restart the Cotai Strip™" story. Turns out it's the same old same-old. The prospect of asset sales, if not dead, isn't looking terribly hale. After all, who wants to buy a hotel in Macao if you must forefeit the casino action? Where's the fun in that (to say nothing of the money)?

Case Bets: Packer & Ho, Sands Bethlehem, MGM Mirage, Ameristar, Penn, Harrah's, etc.

Wed, 03 Jun 2009 14:40:00 -0700

• Smashing guitars -- but not over each other's noggins -- James Packer and Lawrence Ho christened City of Dreams. The younger Ho downplayed expectations of foot traffic, saying his $2.4 billion megaresort could get by on far fewer visitors than the nearby (and comparably expensive) Venetian Macao, which draws 70K visitors daily.

• After a record-setting opening, Sands Bethlehem fell into fourth place during last week's casino action in Pennsylvania. Not surprisingly, Philadelphia Park and Harrah's Chester led the state.

• Beau Rivage is safe. Although MGM Mirage was peddling several of its regional casinos, J.P. Morgan reports that "we have heard from some bidders that this process is close to dead, so we don’t expect to hear asset sales chatter in the near to medium term."

• While yours truly was critical of staffing cuts at Ameristar Casinos, they appear to be paying off. The company projects flat revenue comparisons in 2009 but better cash-flow margins, pegging the savings as $40 million-$48 million, annualized.

• When in doubt, Penn National Gaming falls back on what it knows: racinos. It's angling for the Laurel Park concession left on the table when Magna Entertainment collapsed. Both Penn and rival David Cordish appear to be trying to chisel a loophole into Maryland's slot-parlor law, which limits companies to one slot house apiece. Penn is already committed to Cecil County but wants Laurel Park ... as does Cordish, who has a pre-standing commitment to the Arundel Mills area. The latter project has run into serious opposition. Expect a nip-and-tuck fight for Laurel Park.

• Penn is evidently getting cold feet in Ohio, however.

• Casino expansion in Iowa will have to wait until 2010, at the earliest. This delay is a disguised blessing. The Hawkeye State market has been holding its own during the recession but the timing for diluting the market with four new casinos could scarcely be worse.

• If wishes were horses, Harrah's Entertainment would be galloping along the shores of the Yangtze River this very minute. Seriously, would you lend Harrah's more money? Would you give an alcoholic the keys to your wine cellar? Well, you might get the empties back so you could redeem the deposit on the bottle.

Pansy passes the buck

Wed, 03 Jun 2009 12:52:00 -0700

An understandably sheepish-looking J. Terrence Lanni toasts the opening of MGM Grand Macau alongside business partner Pansy Ho and, front and center, project co-financier Stanley Ho.

MGM Grand Macau co-owner Pansy Ho says it's entirely up to MGM Mirage to defend her honor before the New Jersey Casino Control Commission. The gaming company says it isn't going to take the "unsuitable" finding of the Division of Gaming Enforcement lying down, setting the stage for the most riveting regulatory confrontation since the NJCCC decked Columbia Sussex.

Meanwhile back in Macao, papa Stanley Ho says that because his company is publicly traded that means everything is ipso facto on the up-and-up. Gosh, what a relief. How could we have ever doubted the man?

Rumble in Macao

Tue, 02 Jun 2009 17:34:00 -0700

Although an oft-promised loosening of visa restrictions by Peking stubborny refuses to materialize, an air of cautious hopefulness has crept back into Macao now that City of Dreams has opened on schedule -- and it looks dazzling. Aggressive revenue projections have literally reversed the fortunes of co-owner James Packer, whose disastrous venture into the U.S. casino industry is now seen by some as a blessing in disguise.

At $2.4 billion, City of Dreams rivals the cost of Venetian Macao and is hoped to equal or surpass the latter's 20% return on investment. One projection has it leapfrogging Wynn Macau into third place, with 20% of the Macanese market.

It also represents a double-edged sword for Sheldon Adelson's mammoth casino-resort. If it draws more punters to the Cotai Strip™, good. If it dilutes Adelson's customer base, not so good, obviously. In comments to the Wall Street Journal, Adelson seemed at pains to temper some headstrong pronouncements he'd offered to Steve Friess. As expected, an Adelson without the restraining influences of William Weidner and Brad Stone, is a pedal-to-the-metal Sheldon, saying Las Vegas Sands should have gone faster, faster, faster with its Cotai Strip™ projects, not slower. (The mind reels.)

"I just came back from Macau and we have five or six different options that we can pursue, each one of which would solve our liquidity problems," the Venetian's doge proclaimed ... which doesn't sound a lot different from what he's been saying for months. That is, until he contradicted himself by buying up a truckload of LVS stock -- something he wouldn't have done were a major deal in the offing.

Adelson predicts all his suspended Macao projects will be back in gear by year's end. He's on the curve in one respect, suggesting that his aborted St. Regis condo-hotel on the Strip could be revived by Sands' acting as lender to prospective unit buyers. Palms Place just started doing that very thing.

Sheldon's Commissariat for Optimism never closes, so one tends to grow skeptical of each new variant of "Victory is mine!" Anyway, Adelson was just off the plane from China, so perhaps jet-lag accounts for this reality-challenged assertion: "Our numbers have been going up and the [Macau peninsula] have been going down."

'Fraid not. Scarcely had that Adelsonian utterance made print than Lusa reported May's revenue numbers. If April had seen Wynn Macau falling back toward the pack, with 13% of market share, it returned with a vengeance in May. Steve Wynn's 18% market share -- with far less capacity than Adelson -- put him only three points behind LV Sands and came at the latter's expense. Stanley Ho still leads everybody with 30% -- as much as Galaxy Entertainment, Melco Crown Entertainment and MGM Grand Macau combined.

A few days earlier came news that visitation from Mainland China to Macao had been -43% in April ... hardly propitious conditions for flooring the Cotai Strip™ gas pedal. Ditto a 10% drop in May gambling revenues. Until that much-mooted visa liberalization actually happens, going apeshit with casino-hotel construction makes no sense whatsoever.

Nor did Adelson do his public image any favors with a gratuitous slam against jilted sidekick Weidner. (The latter, given the opportunity to respond, took the high road.) This 'hit 'em when they're down' move will accrue exactly zero sympathy for Adelson -- and it might have some nasty repercussions should it hamper Weidner's attempts to find another job. Then again, he's as rich as Croesus, so he can probably spend the next few decades on the golf course, should he so desire.

There's been no additional movement on the rumored Genting Berhad offer for MGM Grand Macau. However, even in a $13.8 billion/year casino market, the numbers don't look great for MGM. After it splits its 8% market share with partner Pansy Ho, it would have $55 million from which to pay an onerous tax bill, plus operating expenses. (The ROI must be dismal.)

Borgata, in Atlantic City, does $55 million a month -- in a bad month -- and MGM basically cashes a check from Boyd Gaming. So if MGM elects to stay in Macao and vacate Atlantic City, it won't be because the Chinese enclave is contributing more to the bottom line. Who ever thought MGM Grand Macau would function as a glorified "loss leader"?

Steve Wynn has a dragon ... and now Lawrence Ho does, too.

Back home, MGM is going downmarket at The Mirage. And they didn't even have to sell the place to Penn National in order to get there.

Strangely enough ... Penn's recent expression of interest in both Planet Hollywood and Station Casinos passed with scarcely a murmur of comment locally. You'd think that a well-capitalized company like Penn's hanging of a target on Robert Earl's or Frank Fertitta III's back would make headlines -- or maybe Vegas journos have tired of Penn's endless feints and tuned the company out. Well, almost all of them, anyway.

Planet Hollywood, at least, is acting far more aggressively than one would expect from a property that is contemplating a sale. So perhaps Earl is more pursued than pursuer. However, his conversion of Desert(ed) Passage into Miracle Mile appears to have run out of steam -- or money -- at the halfway point. Try as he might, Earl is never going to completely de-Aladdin-ize that place. A magic lantern and three wishes would come in real handy down there.

Also flying under the radar was former Planet Ho boss Michael Mecca's enlistment with Galaxy. Mecca jumped -- or, more likely, was pushed -- from the Planet right when the Omar Siddiqui scandal was at its height. Informed speculation had it that Mecca was thisclose to being tapped to head up James Packer's projected North American gambling empire. Crown Ltd. CEO Rowen Craigie was noncomittal, though, and Crown's big Cannery Casino Resorts acquisition fell through soon thereafter, leaving Mecca hanging.

Success being the best revenge, Mecca not only landed a prestigious new gig -- it's with one of Packer's direct rivals in Macao. Mecca shoots, he scores!

Which brings us full circle to Macao. That worked out tidily, didn't it?

Macao: Genting in, MGM out?

Fri, 29 May 2009 13:22:00 -0700

I've speculated elsewhere -- I believe it was on the TwoWayHardThree forum -- that Genting Bhd might be a logical, even inevitable successor, should MGM Mirage bail out of Macao. Seems that while I was laid up, news surfaced that Genting insiders are selling shares and rolling up a $425 million nest egg. They've also snapped up $100 million in secured MGM Mirage notes.

MGM Grand Macao co-owner Pansy Ho's dad, Stanley Ho, has played footsie with Genting in the past -- something the Singaporean government frowned upon fiercely. Hence the delicate footwork that key Genting players will have to execute if they're to convince Singapore (where Genting is building a multi-billion-dollar resort) that there's more than an arm's length between any potential dealings with the Ho family and Genting's investments on Sentosa Island.

That'll be a difficult minuet to dance but for what's been called "the golden ticket" -- entry to Macao -- Malaysian investors would surely find it worth twirling an ankle or two. Unless Boyd Gaming has waived its right of first refusal on Borgata, this sudden accumulation of Malaysian cash can have one purpose only.

Pansy Ho: time for Plan C

Fri, 22 May 2009 18:12:00 -0700

In my usual cart-first, horse-later fashion, I elicited a legal opinion regarding the scenario I postulated the other night: MGM Mirage spinning off either its Atlantic City holdings or MGM Grand Macau into a quasi-autonomous entity, much as Sheldon Adelson proposes to do with his Macao properties.

Well, unless Pansy Ho can sit down with the New Jersey Casino Control Commission and charm them into turning a blind eye to the penumbra of unsavoriness that surrounds her father, Stanley Ho, MGM is up against a wall. It could put MGM Grand Macau into a limited partnership in which it would have equity but no power.

Did MGM spend so much time and money getting into Macao just so it could be a passive investor? Probably not. So either MGM has to scrape together the cash to buy out the Ho family or Pansy and her sister can exercise their right of first refusal on the property.

Likewise, Boyd Gaming holds the prerogative of acquiring MGM's Borgata share, but of all the possible scenarios on deck, that appears the most unlikely. Here's why:

Borgata represents no ongoing cost to MGM. It can sit back and collect 50% of the profits in perpetuity, while Boyd does the heavy lifting. In Macao, not only does MGM have to run the place, it's in a market with narrower profit margins, thanks to a confiscatory tax rate and the commissions charged by junket operators -- to say nothing of the draconian meddling of the Chinese government. And if it's relying solely on mass-market play, it's not enough to get MGM out of single-digit market share.

MGM took too long and spent too much getting into Macao to be happy with being stuck in sixth place among operators. If it's going to have to amputate a limb, losing Macao may be the less painful cut.

It could also be the more lucrative one because, even in a down market, Macao has two very price-boosting qualities: a finite number of casino concessions and a comparable limitation on casino-zoned land. Neither freeze is likely to thaw anytime soon.

Macao is still a seller's market. But if Boyd were to decline its option on MGM's half of Borgata, other suitors are going to be very hard to find. Nobody wants in on Revel or Bader Field and the Tropicana is essentially being given away. The accomplished Ms. Ho could still pull MGM's chestnuts out of the fire but if she can't, her family could wind up with 2.5 of the six casino concessions in Macao.*

* -- slightly more, actually, as James Packer's stake in Melco Crown Entertainment is exceeded by that of Lawrence Ho.

"Fixations"

Thu, 21 May 2009 11:23:00 -0700

No, Guy Laliberté is not prancing around our offices in cap and bells, reducing staffers to helpless laughter with declarations of, "Criss Angel is not a magician ... he is an artist!"

Instead, cyber-gremblins have rendered our Web operations FUBAR -- as you have undoubtedly discovered already. This necessitates a temporary suspension of S&G operations. Among the items trapped momentarily in Limbo is an explanation of why it looks more and more like MGM Mirage will have to evacuate Macao ... plus early dispatches from the front lines of The Lion King.

However ... a few S&G tweaks have been performed, including a direct link to the article that inspired "Inside the Mind of Trump." It's a wild ride inside the Trumpian psyche.

I'll catch you on the flip.

Brooks: Steve Wynn sucks

Wed, 20 May 2009 14:10:00 -0700

State of the art Las Vegas ... if you're David Brooks.

OK, so David Brooks didn't go that far in his latest New York Times think piece, but if you applied his nostrums to the casino industry, Las Vegas would still look a heckuva lot like it did in 1988.

"The methodical executives at successful companies just make the same old four-door sedan, but they make it better and better," he writes. Then, further down: "The C.E.O.’s that are most likely to succeed are humble, diffident, relentless and a bit unidimensional. They are often not the most exciting people to be around. ... the virtues that writers tend to admire — those involving self-expression and self-exploration — are not the ones that lead to corporate excellence."

Hmmmmm. Steve Wynn can be egotistical, assertive, self-contradictory, multifaceted, expressive and reflective -- often all of the above in the space of a few sentences. His business track record must be a complete train wreck, mustn't it?

So hit the bricks, Wynn. You too, Anthony Marnell II & III, Glenn Schaeffer and Jim Murren, you art-collecting college-boy snobs. (They probably sip wine too, doncha bet?) We don't need none of yer out-of-the-box, smarty-pants thinking. Just give us the next iteration of the Boardwalk or Bingo Palace and make it snappy, OK?

The sound of obsolesence: The next time Review-Journal Editor Thomas Mitchell pens one of his endless series of musings wherein be strokes his moustache and is mystified by the decline of the newspaper bidness, he might ask himself this: Why did his paper run this wire-service story when the Sun had gotten to it two days earlier and in far greater detail?

The sad saga of Terrance K. Watanabe is rife with disturbing moral, ethical and regulatory questions. About the only clear-cut conclusion is that Watanabe's defense is a non-starter. (Harrah's Entertainment may be in trouble, but that's a separate issue.) Former Philadelphia Eagles owner Leonard Tose tried the same thing and had even less luck in court than at the tables. Fortunately, David G. Schwartz is right here to provide us with the relevant history and the precedent that augurs so poorly for the luck- and sobriety-challenged Mr. Watanabe.

It must be frustrating to keep trying to influence events and yet events refused to influenced, mustn't it? Let's ask this guy. He doesn't have a Puliztzer Prize, 'tis true. (Running stories two days after the Sun does might have something to do with it.) But some guy in Cedar City, Utah (who apparently couldn't find a copy of the Deseret News) is a big fan.

This just in: Schwartz also has the early word on a proposal to legitimize Illinois' gray-market slot route business. At first blush, this looks like a really good way to drive a dagger into the heart of the state's already-struggling casinos. Maybe Neil Bluhm should rethink that Chicagoland casino he's planning.

The MGM/Pansy Ho verdict: It's in and it's bad

Tue, 19 May 2009 11:15:00 -0700

After nearly four years of investigation, the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement has released its long-awaited "suitability" findings on MGM Mirage joint-venture partner Pansy Ho. As MGM itself reported to the SEC yesterday, "While the report itself is confidential, at the conclusion of the report, the DGE recommended, among other things, that: (i) the Company’s Macau joint venture partner be found to be unsuitable; (ii) the Company be directed to disengage itself from any business association with its Macau joint venture partner; (iii) the Company’s due diligence/compliance efforts be found to be deficient; and (iv) the New Jersey Commission hold a hearing to address the report."

The grinning ghost of MGM Grand Macau

While the reason for the DGE's disapproval isn't given, it's also not difficult to guess. When someone with the sleazy reputation of Stanley Ho has an interest in your casino -- by dint of loans to two of his daughters -- a jurisdiction that takes probity as seriously as New Jersey is unlikely to give its benediction.

Slightly further down in its SEC bulletin, MGM offers one of the most Pollyanna-ish statements of recent memory: "The Company does not believe that the report will have a material adverse effect on it."

Let's back up a second. The matter of Ms. Ho now goes to the New Jersey Casino Control Commission for adjudication. The NJCCC is not obligated to act on the DGE's findings. However, the last time it exercised such discretion, it was to override the DGE's recommended probation for Columbia Sussex in favor of kicking ColSux out of the Garden State forthwith.

So the likelihood is that MGM will be faced with a choice between liquidating its New Jersey holdings or its Macao ones. The latter include a 50% stake in Borgata (and Boyd Gaming can afford to buy its partner out), plus some undeveloped land, which will be a much tougher sell.

As for MGM Grand Macau, it would revert to the Ho family. MGM could still, in all probability, count on an ongoing stream of revenue by leasing out the brand name or even by negotiating a management contract for itself (although management is rumored to have been the casino's Achilles heel).

Unless the NJCCC grants clemency (in which case, MGM loses face but nothing more, as one analyst puts it), "material adverse effect" is inevitable. But there may be a silver lining for CEO Jim Murren. He was able to get debt-covenant violations waived in return for an accelerated repayment of the company's whopping debt load. The diñero from a Borgata or MGM Grand Macau sale would come in mighty handy as the company tries to de-leverage itself.

Walking (out) in Memphis. A 21-year veteran of the Harrah's Entertainment hierarchy resigned last week, another casualty of the company's downsizing.

And then there were 135. It used to be the execs jumping from the sinking Cosmopolitan ship reached for a lifeline from Fontainebleau. Now they'll be looking for another rescue vessel. (Hey, the Tropicana may be hiring soon.) A F'bleau spokesman says negotiations with Deutsche Bank are continuing, in a notable ratcheting-down of the bellicose rhetoric that's been lobbed to and from F'bleau of late.

Heard last night as part of an act at Sin City Comedy, re the Vegas Trop: "A $20 bill and all my teeth -- I'm a whale!" Conclusion: Alex Yemenidjian cannot arrive soon enough.

Dream on!

Wed, 13 May 2009 11:08:00 -0700

We're less than three weeks away from the opening of City of Dreams, the megaresort that many hope will defibrillate Macao's economy. One of its must-see attractions is sure to be this variegated LED ceiling. You can probably get the idea without watching the entire video. On the other hand, it is very soothing and relief is a precious commodity these days.

Boy, was I wrong!

Wed, 06 May 2009 12:29:00 -0700

Given their tightly held scruples about gambling, period, I figured that there was no way on God's green earth that Florida's Republican-dominated House would agree to lowering the gambling age (at least for slots) to 18. That looked, at first blush, like a deliberately inflammatory proposal, a star atop the state Senate's Christmas tree of gaming-industry concession and the first thing to go during negotiations.

Ha! I repeat: HA! House members are still dead-set against letting people in Tampa play blackjack, but lowering the gambling age to 18 has passed without a murmur, reports the Orlando Sentinel. Even the House has come round to granting the Seminole Tribe some tables (but only blackjack), while the Senate counterproposes a two-tier system whereby half the Seminole casinos get the full monty and half get none, just slots. As with poker limits, it's not a question of "Will they or won't they (get tables)?" Now it's, "How much?" Class II machines for parimutuels are off the table but state senators have come back with something even more contrived. It's enough to make your head spin.

No longer a Dream: June 1 has been set as the date for City of Dreams, the first megaresort built by Melco Crown Entertainment. Despite having two (eventually four) hotel towers, it will open with but 600 hotel rooms, potentially maxing out at 2,200 units. Hopefully, the initial business will give CEO Lawrence Ho something to crow about when he addresses G2E Asia later that month.

LVCVA gets with the times

Tue, 05 May 2009 11:39:00 -0700

Just yesterday, I was comparing a dazzling Macao promotional spot -- one which made the most of what diversity that enclave has to offer -- to the staler-than-stale recent efforts churned out on Las Vegas' behalf by R&R Partners. Little did I know that a topical one-shot ad spot from the Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority was running in Monday's USA Today.

Seizing upon Vice President Joseph Biden's recent "gaffe" about steering clear of swine flu, the LVCVA ran a full-page ad featuring Biden's mug and the tagline, "Mr. Vice President, if you had said it here, no one would have known."

Har-de-har. Actually, having worked with quite a few professional singers in a previous incarnation as an arts journalist, I can tell you they'd vouch for Biden's advice re being wary of confined conveyances -- especially airplane flights -- right down the line. As is so often the case in Washington, simple candor becomes a "gaffe." The Naval Observatory (official resident of the Veep) just might be the only place in or around D.C. where Diogenes could safely stop these days.

The Biden ad, of course, rings yet another change on "What happens here, stays here." Well, as the Carrie Prejean kerfuffle conclusively proves, what happens in Vegas has a half-life of forever nowadays. Besides, that "what happens in Vegas" cliché jumped the shark when convicted felon O.J. Simpson tried to employ it to excuse a botched heist at Palace Station. Surely it's time to put that line out to stud or send it to the glue factory, perhaps.

Technical difficulties, please stand by

Mon, 04 May 2009 16:48:00 -0700

As you've seen, we're having some problems with the embedding of the most recent Macao video montage. S&G apologizes for the temporary convenience. Trust me, it will be worth the wait ... but, if you're disinclined to wait, go to Ian Sutton's invaluable GamingFloor.com and watch it there.

Macao in 3 minutes

Mon, 04 May 2009 14:57:00 -0700

Splendid! Call me jaded but I've never seen a Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority spot that was nearly as appealing ... and probably won't as long as the LVCVA remains wedded to the tired ideas of R&R Partners.

Murren talks smack re: Wynn, Schaeffer

Fri, 01 May 2009 15:39:00 -0700

"No one has proven, by the way, that they can operate properties better than us, so ...uh ... and there's a mountain of information to show that we operate properties better than anybody. Everything that we've acquired is making more money under us than anyone else." -- MGM Mirage CEO Jim Murren. That's a mighty forceful statement when the operators you've superseded include ex-Mandalay Resort Group's Glenn Schaeffer and ex-Mirage Resorts' Steve Wynn. Murren goes on to say, "We have market leadership in every market in which we operate."

... but what about a little place by the name of Macao? The last anybody heard, MGM was sixth out of six operators over there (and, yes, it's lagging far behind a casino run by -- you guessed it -- Steve Wynn).

Almost as an aside, the Las Vegas Sun's Liz Benston reveals that one of the two chunks of Strip land that MGM used as collateral was not the "Project Z" site south of Mandalay Bay (as S&G erroneously deduced) but a smaller, less strategic site across the Boulevard from Luxor. So far, with the exception of MGM Grand Detroit, the company has been able to avoid pledging any of its flagship properties.

Though Murren is willing to peddle MGM's regional casinos, he balks at downsizing its already vast Strip presence. We'll see how that strategy pays off when the "CityCenter six pack" opens for business, starting in October.

CityCenter update

Thu, 30 Apr 2009 11:20:00 -0700

One not-so-small I detail that I omitted in my report on yesterday's declaration of detente between MGM Mirage and Dubai World: The latter is released from its completion guarantees. Which puts the onus for finishing the project squarely on MGM's shoulders. As we on the Vegas Gang collective (like the Borg, only nicer) predicted a good ways back, MGM's future is inextricably entwined with CityCenter.

From the glass half-full perspective, the mortgaging of MGM Grand Detroit and Gold Strike ensures at least a modicum of regional diversity in the lion's den. A week ago, it looked as though the company might very well circle its wagons around Las Vegas, while maintaining a small beachhead in Macao. But with the search for the last last, elusive $1.2 billion in bank loans having evidently been abandoned, asset sales are becoming imperative.

What a tragedy that, at the very moment the casino industry is ripe for "unbundling," reversing mega-consolidations that should never have been attempted, the banks are too afraid to part with their precious TARP money to help bring it about. Unless you can do a Phil Ruffin and basically pull $600 million in cash out of a drawer, it's no casino acquisition for you!

Macao in 7 minutes

Wed, 29 Apr 2009 13:00:00 -0700

Sands Macao: An offer you can refuse

Tue, 28 Apr 2009 12:02:00 -0700

For the present, Las Vegas Sands continues to keep mum regarding a South China Morning Post report that it's trying to sell Sands Macao. Does the old legal maxim, "silence gives consent," still apply? The lack of an outright denial leads me to believe this story is still very much alive. However, Sands' chances of swinging the deal described in the Post appear quite long indeed.

Sands Macao: Priced to stay put.

Sands is reportedly asking $1.3 billion for Sands Macao -- approximately 8X cash flow for a casino-hotel that has been a money spinner from the get-go. However ... Sands would continue to operate the casino and pocket the revenue therefrom, paying a rent that's pegged to the casino's performance. It'd scarcely be an unusual arrangement. Stanley Ho achieved his broad reach, in part, through pacts with other hotel owners who farmed their casinos out to his Sociedade de Jogos de Macau.

But $1.3 billion is pretty steep if you're looking at having to make your nut off of hotel rooms and restaurants. That's a ton of shark's fin soup you'd have to sell. Indexing the casino rent to gambling revenues hardly incentivizes Sands to drive up business at its original Macao casino.

Unless somebody at Sands is thinking way outside the box and offering to pay rent in inverse proportional ratio to what the casino rakes in, but that makes even less sense. Sheldon Adelson would have to be promising massive rents for his mooted sale to pencil out for the buyer. Owning a hotel in Macao without the casino is like getting kissed but not ... you know.

I've been expecting Adelson to float an offer like this for a few weeks now. He wouldn't do it with Venetian Macao unless he could somehow hang onto the convention center as well as the casino. But desperate times are at hand and, seeing as Sheldon's Cotai Strip™ malls aren't finding any takers, Sands Macao may well be expendable.

Ironically, Sands Macao, which was intended as an expedient, low-cost vehicle for getting into the Macanese market was the one opening that Adelson pulled off right. MGM Mirage would have done well to have following a similar route into Macao, instead of taking so long and spending so much money to get all its Peking duck in a row. What would happen if you built a megaresort and nobody came? It looks like MGM Grand Macau, the tail-end Charlie of the Macao market, answers that question.

Bad news for Pennsylvanians. The Associated Press reports that $743 million Sands Bethlehem "has put off finishing the restaurants, entertainment and other non-gambling elements planned there." Can you say "grind joint"? I thought you could. No wonder Sands is projecting such steep (17%) ROI if it's going to open the place as a slot house.

Adelson in denial

Mon, 27 Apr 2009 13:00:00 -0700

"We don't have any intention now, and we have no intention of having an intention in the very near future. Right now, it's not necessary for us to do this." That's what Sheldon Adelson said back on March 24, regarding his newly gained flexibility to buy back debt.

Not necessary? Even when his Las Vegas Sands has a 15:1 debt-to-earnings ratio (worst in the industry)? When Sands Macao may -- in what would be a true desperation move -- be on the block for $1.3 billion? Adelson sounds like a man who won't know his company is falling off a cliff until after it hits the canyon floor ... and maybe not even then.

Morrison counsels MGM

Wed, 22 Apr 2009 14:39:00 -0700

Why keep making fun of the Las Vegas Review-Journal? Because the R-J persists in making it so easy, that's why. For instance ...

Call the Sun. Columnist Jane Ann Morrison has some deep thoughts on MGM Grand Macau. Namely that co-owner MGM Mirage should consider "a reasonable offer" from partner Pansy Ho. Gadzooks! With that kind of insight, it's a wonder Morrison isn't running MGM in lieu of CEO James Murren.

Actually, she might want to put in a call to Las Vegas Sun/In Business Las Vegas veteran Jeff Simpson, who'd explain to her -- as he did to fellow panelists on a "Vegas Gang" podcast -- that Macanese subconcessions can only be sold back to their original concession-holder ... in this case paterfamilias Stanley Ho. Which would be one reason why "Morgan Stanley hasn’t been asked to screen offers for the [sic] MGM Grand Macau." But, hey, if Dr. Ho comes knocking, make sure it's with "a reasonable offer," 'kay?*

R-J to Sun, "Nyah-nyah!": Yeah, so what if the Sun won a little old Pulitzer Prize. The R-J nabbed a "Best of the West" from Arizona-based First Amendment Funding. So there! That Sun is, like, so totally spanked.

On the upside, today's R-J has a good exposition of why banks and other lenders are exercising so much forbearance (in both senses of the word) when confronted with insolvent casino companies. Money quote, as it were: "... the creditors are thinking the way things are now, we just might as well string them along for a little while thinking you'll get more of a return on the bonds that way." Forced asset sales will probably be remunerative a ways out, too ...

* -- Morrison is at least in good company here. Charlie Rose's recent 60 Minutes piece on Steve Wynn repeatedly committed the solecism of referring to Wynn's newest pleasure palace as "The Encore." If you see Rose, be sure to tell him how much you enjoyed his The 60 Minutes segment on The Steve Wynn, which you watched on The CBS.

Exit, pursued by a bear market

Fri, 17 Apr 2009 17:39:00 -0700

Aside from the occasional murmur by Wynn Las Vegas prexy Andrew Pascal, executives at Wynn Resorts keep a low (read: invisible) profile. Even the most assiduous follower of the casino industry would have trouble naming Wynn's CFO off the cuff. If you answered, "David Sisk," as of last Monday you'd be wrong. The contours of his golden parachute strongly suggest an involunatry exit, softened by at least $767,000 worth of severance pay, plus a limited-time offer of stock options.

One can't fault the generosity of Mr. Sisk's deal: He's to be paid a year's salary at pre-rollback rates and, from what little information is disclosed, it doesn't appear that he's bound to a non-compete clause. Odd that Wynn would do this without having a successor in the wings. Of course, there are more than a couple of ex-Las Vegas Sands and Harrah's Entertainment executives updating their resumés these days.

"Encore, me no like!" According to Majestic Research analyst Matthew Jacob, customers are having a tizzy over Encore's "chambered" casino layout and gravitating back to more traditional Wynn LV. So what plays in Macao may flop in Vegas, huh? You can't fault El Steve for trying. Jacob is predicting a squishy 1Q09 for Wynn Resorts, compounded by a first-ever patch of adversity at Wynn Macau.

Jacob is also the star of this CNBC segment on the gaming group, politely wiping the floor with Gabelli Global Multimedia Trust's Larry Haverty. The latter's declaration that resiliency in regional casino markets bodes an imminent recovery of Las Vegas, though we all wish it were true, is a textbook instance of 2+2=5.

Barring Atlantic City and the wholly aberrant phenomenon that is Illinois, regional markets have never slumped as badly as Vegas is doing and were much quicker to recover. Regional diversification is a double-edged sword for gaming: It's a valuable hedge against a wipeout in one key market, but it also gives customers that much less incentive to travel to Vegas or the Boardwalk when big-budget casino properties are coming closer and closer to home.

Haverty also goes off the rails vis-a-vis MGM Mirage's Aria and server-based gaming, predicting successful adoption at CityCenter will spur a wave of emulation. Yes, but ... not so fast. First, the economy will have to come firmly out of its present nosedive before casinos contemplate capex spending of that magnitude. Secondly, some of SBG's largest potential consumers -- like Harrah's Entertainment, Station Casinos, Las Vegas Sands and even MGM are so badly in hock that they're in no position to participate in a major replacement cycle. Furthermore, I don't believe International Game Technology expects more than, at most, an initially slow and incremental adoption of SBG -- an infiltration of casino floors, not a blitzkrieg. But if you're looking at IGT as a long-term investment, a drawn-out replacement cycle would probably be a more desirable scenario anyway.

There's nothing in exceptionable in Jacob's half of the interview. His more finely shaded and detailed observations contrast favorably with Haverty's scattergun generalizations. And while I agree with the latter's enthusiasm for Boyd Gaming, it's a mite premature to be toasting Pinnacle Entertainment. If Pinnacle hadn't gotten bogged down in Atlantic City and were making a more appreciable dent in the St. Louis market, then I'd raise my glass without reservation. When Pinnacle was in acquisition mode there were few assets for the taking. By the time that buffet was replenished, Pinnacle's plate was full to overflowing.

Icahn vs. Kerkorian II; Ho hearts Adelson

Fri, 17 Apr 2009 11:18:00 -0700

Yesterday saw some intemperate spluttering in newspaper comment threads, along the lines "How dare the Wall Street Journal report the news? It might damage stock prices!" (One hothead even bruited the possibility of a libel suit.) All of which was predicated on the assumption -- and we know what happens when we assume -- that the WSJ was merely chasing rumors when it reported that Carl Icahn and Oaktree Capital Management were putting the squeeze on MGM Mirage, trying to steer it into bankruptcy. (Some -- including The Economist -- think a CityCenter-driven bankruptcy is inevitable, regardless.)

Undeterred, the WSJ is back with the full story today and it's the real deal. Icahn and Oaktree are not acting in concert and their agendas are different. Icahn is thought to be angling for a piece of the company while Oaktree likes MGM the way it is, if only it could "clean up its balance sheet." Were they able to force the bankruptcy issue, their rights would supersede owner Kirk Kerkorian's and regime change would surely follow.

But that presupposes a great deal ... not the least the 'great deal' MGM got from its bankers when it was able to borrow $7 billion unsecured. Also, crunch time is still a long way off. Icahn and Oaktree's best chances for bending MGM to their will won't come until July or October, when an aggregate $1.5 billion in bonds must be repurchased. In order to prevail, either Oaktree, Icahn or both would have to thwart that repurchase, presumably by refusing to tender their bonds. But MGM still has a few cards to play in the meantime.

Across the Pacific, Bloomberg has the skinny today on what went down at Sheldon Adelson and Stanley Ho's secret lunch at Venetian Macao earlier this week and a subsequent summit meeting yesterday. (Melco Crown Entertainment CEO Lawrence Ho joined the oligarchs, as did MGM Grand Macau co-owner Pansy Ho, along with a local proxy for Wynn Resorts).*

It seems that detente is the word for the day, with the two ancient enemies agreeing to forego their arms race in favor of cooperation. Or, as the 87-year-old Ho put it, “Everyone agreed not to compete, to have enough rice to eat and to get more taxes for the government." (Adelson was uncharacteristically mum.)

... where the elite meet.

Considering the "cutthroat competition" (as Ho once put it, shortly after some junket operators had their throats slashed) that's prevailed so far in Macao, this new entente cordiale sounds like something that's going to be far easier said than done -- especially when the market begins to rebound. The latter already shows signs of bottoming out. MEAG Hong Kong Ltd. Investment Director John Koh speculated prior to Thursday's superpower meeting that the Adelson/Ho accord would mandate:

• one standard rate for junketeer commissions

• a salary freeze

• a hands-off policy toward one another's VIP ~~players~~ hosts and/or key executives

Since Adelson has several Cotai Strip™ projects -- including a St. Regis and a Shangri-La -- gathering rust, could his sudden amity with the Ho clan be a means of courting bailout money? And how would the Macanese government -- to say nothing of Steve Wynn -- react to the prospect of a polyamorous alliance betwixt SJM, Las Vegas Sands, Melco International and Ms. Ho's Shun Tak Holdings, say? Such a hyrda-headed oligopoly would give competitors a great deal to worry about and seems far from inconceivable, given the desperate circumstances of certain of the parties involved.

*--Galaxy Entertainment seems to have been conspicuous by its absence, but that underachieving company has other Koi fish to fry. The fact that Galaxy is writing down the value of its license, though, says less about the Macao market than about Galaxy and its failure to make substantial inroads, despite being one of the first companies on the scene.

Adelson meets Ho: Shall we dance?

Wed, 15 Apr 2009 11:17:00 -0700

It's appropriate that a top-hush luncheon between Sheldon Adelson and chief adversary Stanley Ho was held in a Venetian Macao ballroom: Even in such a spacious venue, it must have been a tight squeeze fitting both tycoons and their respective egos in there. A Las Vegas Sands mole told Macau Business it was a social encounter "with no particular business agenda."

"What a nice casino you have, Sheldon. I'm really going to enjoy owning it."

Perhaps the duo simply commiserated over the recent decimation of their personal wealth. If so, it was a waste of time because the two men have quite a lot else to discuss. Adelson, for one, has performed a volte-face on the issue of junket commissions. Sands used to be the worst obstructionist of Macao CEO Edmund Ho's commission cap, even when escalating commission wars threatened to render Macao casinos a revenue-negative venture.

Now Adelson and Ho are on the same page, wanting commissions to be lower still. (It's amazing what a little mutual adversity will do.) They also share a desire for a lower casino tax. Lotsa luck there, although they might be able to sell it to Peking as an palatable tradeoff for continued visa restrictions.

Perhaps a large heaping of crow -- a dish not customarily favored by CEOs -- was on Adelson's plate. According to Macau Business, "the SJM managing director [Ho] also said he would be interested in buying part of LVS business in Cotai." It would be the comeuppance to end all comeuppances if the price of keeping the Cotai Strip™ alive would be for Adelson to cede partial ownership to Stanley Ho. The latter's been Adelson's verbal whipping boy ever since the sultan of Sands vowed to reinvent Macanese casino industry. Which he did, but it's been a Pyhrric victory.

A grudging Adelson-Ho detente -- perhaps even alliance -- is no longer the preposterous scenario it would have been just six months back. Public pronouncements to the contrary, Sands appears nowhere near to landing equity partners for its frozen Cotai Strip™ projects and Adelson's recent stock purchase was regarded as a critical "tell" in this regard. Or, to put it another way, if a deal were in the offing and Adelson -- knowing that -- bought LVS low, he'd soon find himself spending quality time with the SEC. Adelson may be rash but he's nowhere near stupid.

It will be poetically apt if Tuesday's ballroom setting prefigures the emergence of Stanley Ho as Sheldon Adelson's dancing partner. The Sands CEO could do much worse. Dr. Ho is a trophy-winning terpsichorean tycoon, famous for cutting a stylish figure on the ballroom floor. An Adelson-Ho pas de deux would be the most fascinating Dancing with the Stars pairing yet.

P.S. Special thanks to GamingFloor.com Editor Ian Sutton for the heads-up.

Never a dull day in Nevada

Wed, 08 Apr 2009 16:56:00 -0700

At least one good thing happened today. In other news ...

"Infidelity is not relevant ... in Nevada": Faced with being all over the teevee and not in a good way, Gov. Jim Gibbons set off a series of distractions. First, he tried to score a photo op with the BMOC. (Midnight Jim's blustery public comments form a droll contrast to the obsequious tone of his letter to POTUS.) Then he managed to piss off the Armenian community. Whoops, there go those campaign contributions from MGM Mirage, governor.

Maybe those dollars will go to former casino owner and outgoing Reno Mayor Bob Cashell. He's the latest Nevada Republican to pass up the chance of taking on Sen. Harry Reid, preferring his odds against the decreasingly viable Gibbons. Cashell says he's got "well-connected" backers down here in Southern Nevada.

Ensign for President? Despite having been an ineffectual fundraiser and candidate-recruiter during his tenure at the RSCCC, Nevada's junior senator (and Circus Circus scion) appears to have his eye on the Oval Office. S&G encourages such presidential aspirations, if for no other reason than that all the other presumptive candidates for 2012 are from the anti-gambling subset of the GOP. Since Ensign's nickname on Capitol Hill used to be -- and perhaps still is -- "Johnny Casino," he can expect to hear a lot of that on the campaign trail.

Elsewhere ...

The chicken is back! The tic-tac-toe-playing chicken is the new star attraction at Greektown. When you're $777 million in the hole, a bit of fowl play can't hurt. The chicken is only playing Detroit through June 9 but an extended engagement would be advisable: With MGM Grand Detroit openly on the market, Greektown's chances of finding an interested buyer just took a mighty wallop.

St. Stanley. The benediction of the American Gaming Association will be bestowed upon Stanley Ho during G2E Asia. Quoth AGA President Frank Fahrenkopf, "we are excited to hear his thoughts during his keynote address.” Yes, Frank, especially the part where Stanley starts ranting about the pernicious effects upon Macao of American capital, as he is so wont to do these days.

Where's Sheldon?

Wed, 08 Apr 2009 12:10:00 -0700

Down in the Lone Star State, where else? The Las Vegas Sands CEO was making some Texas-sized boasts to the Lege, trying to impress them with a show-and-tell presentation of "large glossy photos of his company's properties -- the Venetian and the Palazzo in Las Vegas, and a casino development in Macao that cost billions of dollars to build."

Never mind that Sands has an abortive condo project on the Strip (where its latest marquee retailer is ... Walgreens), has had to scale back Sands Bethelehem and the Cotai Strip™ has ground to an ignominious halt -- at least until equity partners materialize. No, Adelson says he's prepared to expand into Texas and the money will be there. Indeed, he says he'll spend "Whatever it takes."

The money certainly isn't there in Macao, where "there's nothing imminent," despite hopeful talk of two Chinese construction moguls vying for a piece of Sands' Macanese action. It wouldn't be the first time Adelson's crystal ball came equipped with a rose-colored filter.

The proposal before the Texas Lege appears doomed not only because of the fierceness of its opposition but due to its over-ambitious scale. Fifteen casinos (including three tribal ones), an unspecified number of racinos, a related push for legalized and regulated poker ... it's too much for such a profoundly conservative state to swallow in one great gulp.

Besides, there's a huge disparity in the proposed tax rate for casinos (15%) and that paid by tracks (35%), meaning the Lege would have to bite one or more bullets: Raise the casino tax, lower the parimutuel one, or do some combination of both that isn't revenue-negative. If the gaming industry wants to get its boot in the door, the competing racino-only bill looks like a more viable and incremental means of establishing a Texas footprint.

The current debate has also provided another excuse for Phyllis Schlafly's Eagle Forum to make a nuisance of itself. One of its harpies squawked, "Why in the world would we want our children to grow up to be card dealers and waitresses?" I presume she would prefer that they grew up to be unemployed.

MGM Mirage sells family jewels

Mon, 06 Apr 2009 17:39:00 -0700

Desperation has well and truly hit the fan at MGM Mirage. The company's Strip casinos may not be priced to move ... but it's said to be quite a different story where MGM Grand Detroit and Beau Rivage are concerned. (A Bloomberg report implies that Gold Strike in Tunica may be on the table, too.)

How desperate? We're talking about sacrificing $231 million in cash flow (in a down year) to keep CityCenter alive. Outside of Vegas, all the company would retain would be "halfsies" of Borgata, MGM Grand Macau and the Grand Victoria riverboat in Elgin, Il. We'd by definition be talking about considerably increasing MGM's Vegas exposure, especially since CityCenter would -- one hopes -- be mostly open for business by the time these potential sales cleared the regulatory process.

Strategically, it stinks. MGM would be putting nearly every chip it has on the Strip. At a time when regional markets are outperforming Las Vegas, MGM would be removing two of the most vital bet-hedges it has and doubling down on the Strip. With a $7 billion debt payment hitting shore in 2011 and MGM about to go into competition with its existing Strip properties on an undreamt-of scale, if CityCenter doesn't lift all MGM boats, it'll be curtains for the company.

True, that $7 billion balloon payment could be -- has to be -- restructured. That may have been MGM's thinking all along: Confronted with reality, lenders would become more flexible with the deadline. Or perhaps the company expected CityCenter to throw off sick amounts of cash flow, solving the problem at one fell swoop.

Time is of the essence. MGM still has three financing hurdles, at least, to surmount. A) It has to dig under the sofa cushions for as much as $800 million [assuming Dubai World continues to sulk and welsh on its financial commitments] to keep the project going; and to get to B) $1.8 billion in additional debt financing; which still leaves it short of C) $1.2 billion in completion money ... the capital that not even the combined efforts of Sens. Harry Reid and John Ensign could jawbone loose from a suddenly risk-averse banking industry.

By selling Treasure Island to Phil Ruffin for 7.75X cash flow -- and if we discount the theoretical premium that comes with being on the Strip -- MGM has put itself in a spot where the logical price for MGM Grand Detroit is $917 million and Beau Rivage fetches $700 million. If it could realize that $1.6 billion (or more), MGM would have its back-end costs on CityCenter covered. But that still leaves a short-term need for $800 million, which is where ...

Colony Capital comes in. Seems that the private-equity firm is thinking in terms of a secured loan rather than a piece of the action. Worst-case scenario, Colony walks away with one of MGM's better Strip casinos in lieu of repayment (or more than one). It makes a helluva lot more sense than the prospect being floated last week whereby Colony would take Dubai World out of the project -- an expensive proposition that would get MGM no closer to having the money it needs to finish what will be either its crown or its masoleum.

Stranger still was the here-today, gone-tomorrow story that James Packer would be teaming up with Colony to help rescue CityCenter. This popped up online in the wee hours of Saturday and was kiboshed on Sunday evening. Crown Ltd., for its part, helped keep the story alive through some semantic footsie. It said it wasn't in talks with MGM or Dubai World -- which left open the possibility it was dickering with Colony instead. A less-equivocal denial was several more hours in coming.

Having a flutter on CityCenter would provide a convenient explanation for Crown's drawdown of its acquisition of Cannery Casino Resorts. However, one can but imagine the displeasure that would have erupted up the street at Fontainebleau if it emerged that a key investor (Packer) was flirting with an archrival project. Besides, it's not as though Packer doesn't have other problems with which to deal.

MGM could really use some good news but it's not going to come from Macao. Shun Tak Holdings, steered by MGM Grand Macau partner Pansy Ho, saw its profits wither by 90%. With Pansy and father Stanley Ho going through hard times, if MGM entertains any hope of flipping its Macanese subconcession back to them, it'll surely be a good ways off.

Bridge of Sighs. It was across aforesaid Venice landmark that the condemned passed on their way to execution. Outsted Venetian Macao executives don't have to traipse over a replica Bridge of Sighs but there's been quite a doleful procession of late.

Last week, President Mark Brown made the trek, according to the Macau Daily Times. It also reports that casino boss Vince Mascio and international marketing director Ming Lien were close on Brown's heels. Thanks to his recent stock purchase, Las Vegas Sands CEO Sheldon Adelson is more in control than ever. Is this Macanese purge a sample of Adelson Unleashed?

Adelson in the details

Fri, 03 Apr 2009 12:39:00 -0700

Nearly lost amidst a flurry of news stories about Las Vegas Sands hoping to jump-start construction on its stalled Cotai Strip™ (with the help of new equity partners) was this snippet from Sands' president of Asian affairs, Stephen Weaver. Rents at the Marina Bay Sands shopping mall, still under construction in Singapore, are being “pulled down to adjust to the market.”

Lower projected rents? Just one more reason to curb the irrational exuberance with which some Wall Street analysts view this $5.4 billion project.

Under the radar: Remember how Columbia Sussex told the New Jersey Casino Control Commission, in effect, "put it on our tab," when hit with a $750,000 fine? ColSux's original plan was to just have the NJCCC skim the 750 large off the top of whatever it got from selling the Tropicana Atlantic City.

However, the NJCCC informs me that ColSux affiliate Adamar settled up with the state a ways back. Bravo to them. Besides, if Carl Icahn wins the Trop with a credit bid, the casino will change hands but no money will. So much for the windfall everyone was anticipating a year ago.

Case Bets: Station Casinos, CityCenter, Pittsburgh, James Packer

Fri, 03 Apr 2009 11:22:00 -0700

Credit-default swaps, some of those financial instruments that have played hob with the U.S. economy, are making a cameo appearance in the tortured saga of Station Casinos. ~~If you insured Station's debt, that insurance is worth more than the paper your CDS is printed upon --~~ ~~but not by much~~.

Congratulations, MGM Mirage. Your probable rescuer is a bottom-feeder who's preparing to root around amidst the dregs of the banking industry. However, with CityCenter as much as $3.8 billion shy of the finish line, MGM isn't in a position be picky about going into business with the K-Mart of casino owners.

Rivers Casino, the former Majestic Star, has some CityCenter-style construction problems. This project has been so vexed and hexed that nothing comes as a surprise anymore.

Interesting business model. Halfway around the globe, Melco Crown Entertainment's got a lot riding on its City of Dreams megaresort. To bring back the whales, it's essentially promising that they can welsh on their markers with impunity. Or, as the company puts it, "Aggressive enforcement actions against a customer [may] unduly alienate the customer and cause the customer to cease playing at our casinos." And, gosh knows, nobody wants to alienate a deadbeat debtor.

Adelson says "Sell!"

Fri, 27 Mar 2009 17:54:00 -0700

... casinos, that is. In a once-unimaginable turn of events, Sheldon Adelson is openly discussing selling off chunks of his Macao triple crown: Venetian Macao, Sands Macao and the Four Seasons. For all of Adelson's brave talk about sunny skies ahead, the fact that he'd float such a scenario speaks to how Las Vegas Sands has fallen and can't get up unassisted.

Sheldon Adelson, meet your new business partner.

His improbable rescuer is ... Melco International, which raises the deliciously ironic prospect of Adelson going into business with the son of archenemy Stanley Ho. You can't script this stuff! The Lawrence Ho solution sidesteps the pesky question of how to bring in a third party, effectively creating a sub-sub concession. (Do you cut them out of the gambling revenue? Would Chinese authorities stay on the sidelines?)

However, it raises another conundrum: How is the Macanese government going to react to one subconcessionaire owning part of another concession? It should be fascinating to watch this unfold.

Venetian Macao rescued

Thu, 26 Mar 2009 11:53:00 -0700

The video, that is. (The future of Sheldon Adelson's folie de grandeur is anybody's guess.) Yesterday's jumble of embed code has been replaced with graceful imagery, thanks to the wizardry of our IT department. Happy viewing!

Hark the Adelson angels sing

Wed, 25 Mar 2009 15:29:00 -0700

World's Biggest Casino from Jonathan Schütz on Vimeo.

Seraphic choirs warble the praises of Venetian Macao in this promotional video (dug up by GamingFloor.com) which apostrophizes the $2.4 billion "spanking new behemoth" in reverential tones normally reserved for Vatican City or the Louvre.

Las Vegas Sands: Abandon ship!

Tue, 24 Mar 2009 18:18:00 -0700

"Another mutineer dispatched, Admiral Adelson sailed forth to do battle with the hydrofoil fleet of Stanley Ho."

As the gilded galley that is Las Vegas Sands slowly settled deeper and deeper into an ocean of red ink, Wall Street analysts held out a slim lifeline or two. Surely, they noted, LVS' overseas construction supremo, Brad Stone, and Venetian President Rob Goldstein were still with the ship. And then there was one.

There is also only one way that Stone's March 18 departure (disclosed today) will play on Wall Street. In a word, badly. Perhaps his leap overboard was inevitable, given his long ties to outsted Sands prez William Weidner. Or maybe he didn't cotton to answering to an overcompensated newbie gaming exec (Weidner successor Michael A. Leven, aka The $2 Million Man). Either way, Stone leaves asset sales in Macao hanging fire and Marina Bay Sands in Singapore well short of the finish line.

We are presumably meant to be reassured that Sands is pondering buying back $800 million in debt, bringing its leverage down to a mere $9.7 billion (or slightly less than 14X earnings). This sort of bucket-brigade move still might save the ship but Admiral Adelson's waited until the bilge water was lapping at his ankles.

Hey, Sanford Bernstein! Aren't you glad you rated this stock a "buy"? Construction at a standstill in both Macao and on the Strip ... unimaginable debt-to-earnings ratios ... a $5.4 billion megaresort coming online in an untested market ... what's not to love?

Case Bets: Macao, Icahn, Atlantic City, MGM Mirage, Sin City Kitties

Tue, 17 Mar 2009 17:17:00 -0700

According to Telegraph correspondent Ben Bland, Macao finds itself in a bind. Peking's efforts to prevent money from being siphoned out of the country have crimped high-roller play, forcing a greater reliance upon mass-market customers. But the recession is cutting into their gambling budgets, too. Who's having the last laugh in all of this? Who else but Stanley Ho? As we're learning, never underestimate old Stan's ability to survive. He's probably found a loophole out of death, too. (But somebody needs to clue Bland in that Celine Dion doesn't play Vegas these days.)

Icahn's in: Well, sorta. Although the former Stratosphere owner is officially making a play for the Tropicana Atlantic City, he wants -- get this -- another six months to close the deal. Since the sale of the Trop was supposed to have been wrapped up 11 months ago, regulatory patience is finally running thin. Keeping the Trop in a 21-month limbo is grossly unfair to its long-suffering employees, too.

Icahn's equivocations could send the Trop caroming straight into the arms of Cordish Co., although it's unclear whether Cordish is still interested. Had chowderheaded, state-appointed trustee Gary Stein -- who was characteristically out of the loop on the Icahn bid -- closed the deal when deals were still to be had, all of this would be ancient history. New Jersey Casino Control Commmission members should be marched off to the woodshed for appointing Stein and then tolerating his interminable (and very expensive) bungling.

Elsewhere in New Jersey, solons have relieved Atlantic City's denizens of their second-class citizen status, albeit with many clauses and exceptions. This was accompanied by the usual howls about casinos wielding untoward influence (they can't even make political donations, which seems blatantly unconstitutional), although "juice" from other industries -- like the sacrosanct horse-racing business -- is implied to be hunky-dory. The horsey set's constant pining for slot machines gets a cold shoulder from the voting public, however.

Remember how I forecast that MGM Mirage's $1.2 billion writeoff of much of the value associated with former Mandalay Resort Group properties was going to kill 4Q08 earnings? Well, it did. However, the company supposedly still doesn't want to take on equity partners in anchor-around-the-neck CityCenter. "I'd be surprised if they dilute the joint venture [with Dubai World]," says a Reuters source. Geez, seems like if they'd "diluted" it with additional partners earlier on, they might not be hawking the family silver to raise completion money. Pride goeth before a ... well, you know.

Literacy-challenged Kitties: There's no better topless show on or off the Strip than the Sin City Kitties, who perform all the way out at Whiskey Pete's (which boasts a surprisingly spacious showroom). OK, I haven't seen Fantasy, probably because Luxor insists on advertising it as "Carrot Top Fantasy." As one wag observed, those are three words that should never inhabit the same sentence.

Anyway, Sin City Kitties is the only topless show I've seen that's predominantly erotic, as opposed to having a good number or three. And none of the girls betrayed signs of "enhancement" on the night we saw it, when it played to an appreciative audience of leathernecks and other servicemen.

However ... somebody needs to inform these pussycats that what they perform is not a "topless review [sic]" -- unless they plan to critique other topless shows from their stage in Primm.

"The Harry Reid Train": The asshat who made this fumbling attempt at an "ambush interview" might want to learn what the "Harry Reid Train" is (or more accurately, isn't) before attempting to smart-mouth Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV). Titus brushes off the uninformed oaf with the contempt he deserves. And hey, that's the "Sin City Express," bucko. Don't go messing up our catchy new brand name.

Adelson: Everything is A-OK

Thu, 12 Mar 2009 12:25:00 -0700

Las Vegas Sands' CEO has been quite the Chatty Cathy of late, feeling emboldened by his disposal of ex-deputy William Weidner, no doubt. The Associated Press' Oskar Garcia caught up with mogul in New York, sounding like he'd read a few too many of his own press clippings: "The difference between us and you guys [Wall Stret] is that we believe what we say. Apparently the market doesn't believe us." A $1.62 share price definitely constitutes disbelief.

If Sands succeeds in cutting $470 million from its budget this year, Adelson says, "there's no need for us to go out and sell assets." Even so, he's entertaining two buy-in offers, he says, two inquiries about the availability of Sites 5 and 6 on the Cotai Strip™ and as many 19 bids on one or another of two malls he's building in Macao -- all of which should be soothing music to investors' jangled ears.

Matters, Adelson said, are better than ever now that he's shot of Weidner, proclaiming, "Don't think that we have one foot in the pail of bankruptcy and the other on a banana peel in the middle of a hurricane. That's not the case."

I feel better now. Don't you?

Wall Street swoons for Sands

Wed, 04 Mar 2009 18:32:00 -0700

That must have been some mighty tasty Kool-Aid that Las Vegas Sands CEO Sheldon Adelson was ladling out at the Reuters Travel & Leisure Summit yesterday. Had we not been hearing it from other news sources, one wouldn't put much credence in Adelson's prediction of wider access to Macao from mainland China, mainly because his recent forecasts of what Peking would and wouldn't do have tended to be dead wrong.

Marina Bay Sands: A 28% return on investment? Sheldon says that's a lowball figure.

But what really staggered the imagination were the ROI projections Wall Street's making for Marina Bay Sands, in Singapore. Putting cash flow anywhere between a half-billion and $900 million is a scattershot figure, to say the least. But even those seemingly giddy estimates are "somewhat low," according to Sands' grand vizier. Depending on which of three reported Marina Bay budgets is the correct one, here's how the ROI range would shake out ...

$3.2 billion (original): 16%-28%

$4.5 billion (interim): 11%-20%

$5.4 budget (alleged final budget): 9%-17%

Those are some extraordinarily optimistic projections for the most expensive casino megaresort in history (unless you count CityCenter as one property). But it gets better. The $743 million Sands Bethlehem project, in Pennsylvania, is going to do a 17% return on investment, according to Adelson.

Let's hope he's right, because that'll mean we're busting out of this recession something fierce. Of course, Sands saved itself a pile of money in Pennsylvania by simply deferring its contracted retail mall and hotel until an unspecified future date. But if $743 million represents not the total cost of the project but what Sands has spent on the casino alone, that $800 million Don Barden/Neil Bluhm behemoth in Pittsburgh may start to look like a paragon of frugality.

Harrah's enjoys bailout

Tue, 03 Mar 2009 13:27:00 -0700

"Critics argue that the tax-law change rewards companies that took on too much leverage during the credit bubble, such as those that were bought by private-equity firms."

Sound like anybody we know? How about Harrah's Entertainment, which played Russian roulette with the bond market and got its brains spattered all over the wall. Lucky for them, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) was there with a "Get Out of Jail Free" card -- or at least a tax break that, in effect, rewards morally hazardous borrowing. Thanks to Harry's largesse, it'll be a full decade before Harrah's pays off the gains it's about to realize from buying back part of its $23 billion (!) debt at a discount.

That is, assuming that the crafty Reid hasn't carved out yet another tax exemption for improvident borrowers like Harrah's, Station Casinos and Colony Capital by 2019. And between that gift-wrapped tax deferment and last week's endorsement by Nevada GOP kingmaker Sig Rogich, Reid is as good as re-elected through 2016. (Which must come as a terrible disappointment to Las Vegas Review-Journal Publisher Sherman Frederick, who has been conducting a blushing-maiden campaign for the GOP nod via his blog and Sunday column, trying to draft himself as Nevada's Only Hope of Salvation.) One prospective Reid rival has seen the handwriting on the wall and given up.

As the Wall Street Journal story points out, there are far worse outcomes for Harrah's management, its employees -- innocent bystanders to this debacle -- and its debtors, who'll realize some tax forgiveness themselves. Besides, it's clearly preferable that super-leveraged companies pay back some of their debt rather than walk away from the whole kit 'n kaboodle. That goes without saying.

But what lesson is likeliest to be drawn in the boardroom? Will it be, "Damn, but we dodged a bullet there! Let's not pull an LBO stunt like that again"? Or will executives reach the conclusion, "Hey, that was easy! As soon as we're clear of this mess, let's run up another whopping tab. We won't have to pay off the whole thing and we'll probably get another big-ass tax break from Harry in the bargain. Party on, dudes"?

Recent history does inspire confidence that the former option will hold sway over the latter.

Small victory for Sands: There's a silver lining in the (relatively) dismal February revenue numbers from Macao, which are down 16% from last year, to $1 billion. "Dismal," that is, by Macao standards, which are higher than anybody else's.

While Stanley Ho continues to command the plurality of the market (29%), Las Vegas Sands has clawed back. Its January market share (22%) has risen to nearly 26%. These gains came mainly at the expense of Melco Crown Entertainment (down to 9%) and MGM Mirage/Pansy Ho (bringing up the rear with 6%).

Given the worrisome financial straits MGM finds itself in elsewhere, it's time to think the once-unthinkable: That CEO Jim Murren could decide that $30 million/month in revenue isn't worth maintaining a Macanese beachhead and sells the company's subconcession back to Stanley Ho. Then the elder Ho's tactless references to MGM Grand Macau as "my casino" would achieve the status of prophecy.

Case Bets: Taiwan, Texas, Tea & stockholder sympathy

Mon, 02 Mar 2009 17:50:00 -0700

Aside from being saddled with out-of-the-way locations, potential Taiwanese casinos will be verboten to visitors from China. Peking has made its feelings known in no uncertain terms. It's difficult to see the point of bothering with casino investment in Taiwan unless it's a meager consolation prize for missing out on Macao.

Besides, for Americans of a certain age, the notion of a casino on Matsu doesn't connote carefree resort living: Believe it or not, the U.S. and China seriously contemplated a shooting war over Matsu and sister island Quemoy. Those two little pieces of offshore real estate were a central issue in the 1960 presidential campaign, as John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon tried to oudo each other in hawkishness.

Put down the crack pipe: Although Texas is a big state, the notion that casino revenues there could match at least five other states combined (including Nevada) is a tall tale indeed. But if one had to choose between developing in Las Vegas and trying to crack a new regional market, it's quantifiable that the latter is a far greater value proposition nowadays.

Levity is usually an alien concept to the Las Vegas Review-Journal (where the attempts at humor are usually of the "Yer mamma wears army boots" variety). However, Howard Stutz has an amusing take on what your casino stock will or won't buy you. Personally, I consider the box of peanut butter Girl Scout cookies I bought last Saturday a better investment of $3.50 than a share of MGM Mirage, even if the cookies won't appreciate over time. (They do taste much better than a stock certificate, though, and they make your girlfriend happier, too.)

One far-too-typical R-J reader, though takes great umbrage at the notion anyone would make light of the anemic value of the gaming sector. Oh, the effrontery! So bunched up are this guy's tighty whities, he actually threatens Stutz with physical violence. Yeah, everybody's Rambo ... so long they're safely behind a keyboard.

Speaking of MGM Mirage, members of its players club needn't worry about a scam that saw Southwesterners spammed with phony "sweepstakes" winnings from the casino giant. When S&G asked whether there was any correlation between its player database and the recipients of the letter, the reply was the essence of brevity: "No."

Wall Street Hearts WYNN

Mon, 02 Mar 2009 14:05:00 -0700

"Buy Wynn!" is the bottom line of James Dobosz's unqualified endorsement of the stock. He especially likes the recent volte-face that saw Steve Wynn abandon an occupany-driven strategy in favor of high ADRs, on the theory that customers who can afford top-dollar hotel rooms can spring for like-priced spa treatments and restaurant offerings.

Putting a "buy" rating on a casino stock is akin to placing one's head on the chopping block these days. Consider Bernstein Research, which initiated ratings of Wynn Resorts and -- get this -- Las Vegas Sands at "outperform." Bernstein's rationale for the Wynn rating is persuasive, but anybody who writes blithely that Sheldon Adelson's company will "find its way out of its liquidity bind and emerge with a stellar portfolio of assets centered in Asia and including a crown jewel in Singapore," hath quaffed a dram too many of the LVS Kool-Aid, methinks.

The next day brought this "Oh shit!" bulletin from Singapore. A 13% drop in tourism is nothing to downplay, considering that both Marina Bay Sands and Genting's Sentosa Island megaresort will live and die on international business.

Bernstein's $8-a-share bullishness on Sands drew a withering blast from CNBC's James Cramer that began, "All right, you just rolled a seven in craps. That is, if you own the crap known as Las Vegas Sands!" His volcanic tirade is not for the faint of heart ... but Cramer was prescient when he frog-marched gaming stocks off to his "Sell Block" 14 months ago. Read the latest LVS financials and see what you think.

And even if LVS has held the Marina Bay Sands budget down to its $3.2 billion starting point, $300 million in cash flow is but a 9% ROI. We're looking at 5.5% if the worst-case scenarios are accurate. The $1 billion-plus megaresort epoch that kicked off with Bellagio and Mandalay Bay may someday be known as The Era of Diminishing Returns. If you want to buy casino stock, God bless you. Just don't expect the double-digit returns of yore.

Wynn: now we know

Fri, 27 Feb 2009 15:53:00 -0700

When Steve Wynn laid out a draconian set of wage, benefit and schedule cutbacks at Wynn Las Vegas and Encore, his rationale could only be conjectured ... until now. What was clear was that Wynn was staring into some manner of abyss, not merely flipping out because of the now-infamous Wells Fargo cancellation.

An occupancy rate a hair under 80% is a good way to motivate stringency measures, as is a 20% drop in revenue per room. And if a -43% tailspin in casino revenue doesn't make you want to man the lifeboats, nothing will. No wonder Wynn's moves were so severe -- the starkest in Vegas. Besides, those occupancy numbers don't look to strengthen appreciably now that Wynn had done an abrupt about-face, dropping "fill the rooms" in favor of chasing $399/night ADRs. So REVPAR ≥ occupany, it would seem. Of course, when you have a two-hotel megaresort to keep bustling, a sniper-rifle approach to marketing is going to have its limitations.

Pulling its weight is Wynn Macao (the sole bulwark between a bad quarter and outright calamity). Ergo, it was spared from the thrift regimen. Rival executives who swing the scythe indiscriminately when overall business is down might learn from Wynn's case-by-case example.

Cannery sale on ice?

Wed, 25 Feb 2009 15:41:00 -0700

Nevada Gaming Control Board Chairman Dennis Neilander was kind enough to ring up pesky old NGCB detractor S&G today and provide some clarification on why Crown Ltd. and its supremo, James Packer, passed muster in the Silver State but have run into heavy weather in Pennsylvania.

"When we first started ... the Packer shares are held in a variety of trusts," controlled by Packer himself, Neilander explained. NGCB representatives met with trust counsel and "pored through all of the trusts," concluding that Packer was the controlling shareholder. "We have no concerns about it here. It was all disclosed to us."

(A government source adds that trustees fear Keystone State confidentiality provisions are less airtight than Nevada ones and information provided to regulators would become public. Which is why three Crown Ltd. participants are suing -- under aliases -- for declaratory relief, in a Delaware court.)

As for a spate of recent developments, Neilander said that Gretel Packer (above) -- who's suddenly gotten cold feet about Pennsylvania licensure -- didn't reach the 10% ownership threshhold necessary to mandate Nevada scrutiny. "We did" have contact with gambler Harry ~~Kanavos~~ Kakavas, Neilander added, saying that at the time there was no indication that Kanavos had tapes of Crown executives allegedly making illegal overtures to him. (Pennsylvania has sent an investigator Down Under to hear the recording.) And with regard to bribery allegations connected to Melco Crown Entertainment's City of Dreams project, those arose late in the proceedings, the chairman said, and there was not enough evidence from which to reach a conclusion as to their validity.

Neilander added that the NGCB is monitoring both the Kanavos and Macanese situations for potential post-licensure action. But with Cannery Casino Resorts bosses William Paulos and William Wortman accusing the Packers of colluding to scuttle the sale, these questions may soon be extremely moot.

Shipwreck for Sheldon Adelson

Sat, 21 Feb 2009 17:22:00 -0700

Another dagger blow was dealt this week to the staggering Pacific Rim fortunes of Las Vegas Sands. Its Cotai Waterjets ferry service in Macao has had its contract voided, although the Macanese courts will allow the hydrofoils to remain in operation until the appeals process has run its course.

If Sheldon Adelson's ferry fleet is beached, that leaves water-borne transportation to Macao in the hands of archnemesis Stanley Ho. That ancient casino vizier doubtless supped upon a cold dish of revenge upon hearing the news of Adelson's latest reversal of fortune. As for Adelson, about the only comfort he can salvage is that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is singing psalmody from his "let's appease the nice ChiComms" hymnal now.

Speaking of carrying water, Ho's Astroturf "grass roots" ally, Concerned Macau Residents Group, continues to push the line that Adelson's asset sales in Macao must be stopped lest they destabilize the local real estate market. (Which sounds like an odd bugaboo for an allegedly ad hoc group of citizens to have at the forefront of its agenda ... but it sure would be a logical concern for a rival magnate like one S. Ho.)

In making its case, CMRG read right off the Stanley Ho script. So word-for-word was its delivery, in fact, that group leaders had to concede they "shared the same view with Stanley Ho who also made comments recently in response to the sale of the Four Seasons apartment hotel." Boy, I haven't seen such poor ventriloquism since those old Edgar Bergen/Charlie McCarthy movies.

Adelson is also encountering headwinds in the construction of Marina Bay Sands, which has shot $2.2 billion over budget. (Yes, that's "billion" with a "B.") You could build a pretty awesome Vegas megaresort from the cost overrun alone. Either Sands seriously "misunderestimated" this project or let it get completely away from them. Either way, with a $5.4 billion tab it simply beggars credulity that is going to be the world's most profitable casino, as has been claimed.

Yes, Singapore's population base far outnumbers of that of Macao. Big deal. When the guvmint is planning to charge citizens and permanent residents $65 a day to get into a casino -- and isn't backing down -- that's a near-insuperable obstacle to overcome. I heard quite a bit of skepticism when Singapore's "integrated resort" concept was rolled out and there seems to be little reason to change that outlook as runaway costs for both Marina Bay Sands and the rival Genting megaresort begin to suggest this could be the Heaven's Gate of gaming markets.

On the subject of movies, with illegal immigration being a hotter-button issue than ever, you'd think Gregory Nava's 1983 El Norte would own ever greater relevance today. Think again.

Packer steps in it again

Thu, 19 Feb 2009 18:50:00 -0700

Now aren't you glad that the Nevada Gaming Control Board and Gaming Commission were so quick to give James Packer the green light to own Cannery Casino Resorts? Not only is he facing an unfolding scandal in Australia, two casinos he co-owns in Macao have been tied into a high-profile bribery case. Whoops.

When asked for comment, Packer's Crown Ltd. passed the buck ($1AU) to Melco Crown Entertainment, in effect dumping the matter in the lap of Packer partner Lawrence Ho. Considering that Packer/Ho's City of Dreams was built on land earmarked for an institution of higher learning -- without even waiting for formal rezoning approval -- this could stir serious backlash in Macao. Foreign-born casino owners are the villain of choice this season, perceived to have their thumbs on the scales of justice.

Who knows? Maybe the younger Ho or one of his associates did grease somebody's palm. However, the casino career of the Packer scion continues to be a catalogue of missteps and misfortunes. Vegas will make short work of him ... if he's still allowed to set up shop here.

Quote of the Day

Thu, 12 Feb 2009 18:36:00 -0700

"Our casinos are the equivalent of printing money. We are printing every day, how could we be getting poor?" -- the one, the only, the incomparable Stanley Ho, uttering one of the great non-denial denials of all time. The Macao kingpin was being queried about reports that his fortune has shriveled.

Steve Wynn has a dragon -- and you don't

Thu, 05 Feb 2009 16:35:00 -0700

???? Wynn casino dragon (macau) from raychan on Vimeo.

The "Tree of Prosperity" at Wynn Macau has been supplanted by this awe-inspiring dragon, Steve Wynn's newest version of the Mirage volcano and Treasure Island pirate show (and way better than the wall-changing folderol at Switch). Too bad he didn't put a sacred monster like this in at Wynn Las Vegas or Encore. Because, in the immortal words of Peter Griffin, it'd be freakin' sweet.

Black Tuesday: Wynn

Wed, 04 Feb 2009 15:42:00 -0700

With the aforementioned exception of Penn National and that of Bally Technologies, Feb. 3 was a wretched day to be in the casino industry, with most attention going to Wynn Resorts.

The company had to good grace to hold a conference call to announce what it was doing, in detail, resisting the obvious temptation to put out a press release and then just clam up. Steve Wynn lavished considerable praise on his employees and came across as sincerely concerned with keeping people employed, albeit in reduced circumstances. Contrast this with certain casino operators (coughColumbia Sussexcough) who have seemed to positively enjoy putting people out on the street, the more the better.

Encore: caught napping?

Wynn (the company or the person, take your pick) is also to be commended for graduating the pay reduction on salaried employees so that the lower-tiered ones face "only" a 10% cutback, as opposed to the -15% that will be suffered in the higher ranks. However, losing as much as $15K in annual income isn't chump change and life will be even rougher for the hourly employees, who are looking at 20% less pay. (Social Darwinians will doubtless adopt the Pollyanna-ish view that the hourly employees now have the "opportunity" to take on additional, part-time jobs ... in a state where unemployment exceeds 9%.) However, unless you're making peanuts to begin with or are independently wealthy, a 10%-20% pay cut isn't "a little less," as Wynn defensively phrased it, it's a lot less. Let's just be clear on that.

During the conference call, Wynn said that the cutbacks had been in the works for five-six weeks, which would place their inception somewhere between Dec. 23-30 ... the first week that Encore was open. That's interesting timing. Perhaps management was too preoccupied with opening the property to see this crisis coming, but whatever the reason, both bosses and employees have been sandbagged.

Given the severity of the economy measures and the fact that, according to Wynn himself, the company is sitting on $900 million in "free cash," as they put it, why were such drastic actions necessary? Especially when the maximum saving is pegged at $100 million? Better too much prudence than too little, of course, but it seems like we're not getting the full picture here. If I had to surmise, I'd say Wynn must be looking at some very dire -- but undisclosed -- 2009 business models and bracing for impact.

Pilar Weiss of the Culinary Union told S&G she wasn't sure where the Review-Journal got its 9,500-affected-employees figure, as roughly half (5,000-plus people) of Wynn Las Vegas/Encore's workforce is Culinary-repped and therefore immune to the unilateral pay and benefit reductions (partly because they don't participate in Wynn's 401[k] plan). "He can do unilateral whatever he wants" to non-Culinary employees, Weiss said, adding that the union hasn't had and doesn't intend to have meetings with Wynn to discuss concessions.

"I don't see any defections," Wynn predicted of his workforce and one can't argue with the implicit logic, even if a Wynn LV/Encore job might not be the highest-paying gig on the Strip now. Most of his competitors are in even worse straits and any Strip job opening draws a hefty surfeit of applicants. Wynn knows his people will stay put because the chances of landing a better job elsewhere are closer to "none" than "slim."

On other topics, Wynn was pretty sanguine, saying that Encore Macau is being financed out of free cash flow and belt-tightening isn't needed over there: "Our business in Macao is at levels that don't dictate that sort of measure." Having almost a fifth of the Macanese market with just one casino is nice, isn't it?

"I don't really feel like sweating the stock price" was another Wynn-delivered bon mot, as he implied he might be in the mood to take advantage of the swooning market and accrue more WYNN shares.

The assembled stock analysts were respectul but not fawning, with the exception of Larry Klatzkin, who coyly wafted softballs for Wynn execs to swat out of the park. Joseph Greff asked the once-unthinkable: Could Strip resorts become irrelevant and go dark? Wynn didn't answer directly but noted that the pressure was greatest on the bargain-tier properties: "Where do you go from 29 [dollars a night]?" Added one of his lieutenants, any darkness "will come from the bottom up."

Stanley Ho's comeback

Mon, 02 Feb 2009 12:48:00 -0700

Citing the Lusa news agency, J.P. Morgan says that Macao casino revenues for January came in higher than expected, at $1.1 billion. The shocker, though, is the revision of market-share figures, which previously had shown Stanley Ho and Sheldon Adelson each holding a quarter of the market. Lusa's revised numbers show Ho thrusting Adelson firmly into second place -- 28% to 22%. This is a sobering setback for Las Vegas Sands, whose CEO had forecast the demise, at least a dramatic downsizing, of Ho's casino empire.

Let this also be a lesson to those us (present company included) who thought Vegas swankiness would trump customer loyalty to Ho's older -- some would say seedier -- product. The "B" plotline is that Wynn Macau's market share is 17%, only five points behind Sands Macao and Venetian Macao despite far less capacity. Galaxy Entertainment (13%), Melco Crown Entertainment (11%) and MGM Mirage (9%) divvy up the remainder, with the latter paying the price for being last into the market and a reportedly disadvantageous location. This is one race where those who bet on the tortoise over the hare will be chagrined.

Speaking of Stanley Ho, he and an associate have dropped $284,000 into the coffers of the New South Wales branch of Australian Liberal Party. This is significant because Ho made a run at a New South Wales casino years ago but was deemed "unsuitable." Don't be surprised if the Liberals suddenly discover him to be cleaner than a hound's tooth.

Shakeup at Sands. With its Macao and Singapore projects lagging badly, Las Vegas Sands has tasked a new executive team for its Asian portfolio. Senior Vice President Leonard DeAngelo comes by way of Penn National and, before that, a different kind of Sands -- the vanished Sands Hotel & Casino in Atlantic City. Former Langham Hotels & Resorts executive Nigel Roberts has been named president of behind-schedule Marina Bay Sands.

Executive VP Brad Stone has been promoted to the newly created role of president of global operations and construction, which puts him in charge of design and building for all Sands projects worldwide. It's a thankless task but expectations for Sands have fallen so low that if Stone effects even a modest improvement it will seem a triumph.

Adelson ambushed?

Thu, 22 Jan 2009 17:46:00 -0700

That ostensibly grassroots movement to run Las Vegas Sands out of Macao looks suspicious-er and suspicious-er. So far Macau Residents has been fortunate to find journalists who are either downright gullible or at least credulous.

Any claim to be shocked -- shocked! -- by Sheldon Adelson's Singapore project, Marina Bay Sands, indicates either disingenuousness or remarkable incuriosity, seeing as how Marina Bay has been in train for nearly three years (longer, if you count the courtship process). Nor has Sands proposed to "abandon" its Cotai Strip™ projects but rather to indefinitely suspend them ... although if you're an unemployed Macanese or a expat construction worker, that's probably a distinction without a difference.

Saying that LVS "recovered its capital investment within the first year of operation of the Sands Casino in Macau" is true only insofar as it applies to Sands Macao. When it comes to Venetian Macao and everything else, Sands is nowhere near being out of the woods. (I've seen much worse business plans than rolling the proceeds from Casino A into the construction of Casino B, which in turn bankrolls Casino C, but I doubt this one will be emulated anytime soon.)

As for the contention, "there was no significant incremental foreign tourism as originally represented and no substantial increase in convention business," what's Chinese for "bullshit"? To cite but one of innumerable tourism metrics, Macanese officialdom recently announced that it was seeing double-digit increases in visitation from Great Britain. It may not be a stampede yet, but you've got to start somewhere. Nor are Venetian Macao's convention and meeting statistics anything at which to sneeze -- not even remotely.

Sheldon Adelson may have a remarkable facility for making enemies but that doesn't mean this isn't a put-up job. Irate guest workers might want to redirect some of their wrath toward Peking, which is conducting a purge of non-Macanese labor (and if there's one thing Communist China is exceptionally good at, by golly, it's purging).

Oh, where did Macau Residents stage its press conference? At the Grand Emperor Hotel. And who holds the Grand Emperor's casino concession?

Why, it's good old Stanley Ho, of course.

The plot thickens ...

Macao: Shooting dice with death

Tue, 20 Jan 2009 17:40:00 -0700

There's a bigger worry for casinos in Macao than whether the Chinese government eases visa restrictions: Some of the high-roller trade is dying -- literally. Macau Polytechnic Institute traced the fate of 99 VIP players who got into trouble with Chinese authorities. Not only were 15 facing death sentences, another seven had either killed themselves or been murdered. Two more had their death sentences commuted. And that's not counting an additional 20 in the hoosegow on lesser sentences. See what happens when you play too much Super Happy Fortune Cat?

Of course, it's easy to live the high-roller lifestyle when you're wagering with stolen money. Given that Chinese companies and governmental agencies were being sucked dry by kleptocrats with a gambling jones, Peking is understandably wont to tighten the screws on Macao. VIP-oriented operators like Melco Crown Entertainment and Wynn Resorts are most likely to feel the pinch, as we know is happening with Crown.

Ironically, for all its overreach in Macao, Las Vegas Sands made at least one sound decision when it targeted mass-market play. Too bad they proceeded to go and drink their own milkshake, as Venetian Macao sucks Sands Macao dry. (It's by now abundantly clear that it's no skin off the central government's nose if its effort to keep a close grip on where China's capital is flowing happens to throttle a few casino operators in the process.)

If Macao Chief Executive Edmund Ho (pictured) didn't have enough to worry about, a distant relative is wanted by Interpol. (Ian Sutton found the arrest warrant.) Even in American politics, the alleged misdeeds of your brother's brother-in-law might not arouse too much fuss and bother. But Chan Lin-ian and his missus are tied to the mega-scandal surrounding graft-meister Ao Man-long, who's currently doing 27 years' worth of hard time. If Sinologists are right that Peking wants to exert more direct control over Macao, this latest imbroglio would be useful leverage for pushing Edmund Ho out of office ahead of schedule, were it to suit the central government's motives.

The fine hand of Peking may be behind a newly organized and very umbrageous citizens group, Macau Residents, which has a Cotai Strip™-sized beef with Sheldon Adelson and his Las Vegas Sands.

Just for starters, the trademarking of "Cotai" (a conflation of Taipa and Coloane, Macao's two principal islands) sticks in the organizers' collective craw. Furthermore, the inevitable collision between the casino interests of Macao and Singapore has finally occurred. "We are hurt and angry that Sands Casino after making big monies from Macau had openly declared it will focus on Singapore instead of completing its unfinished works in Macau," rages the online petition. Taking as its pretext recent and massive layoffs at Sands' Macao properties, the group calls for the government to repatriate Adelson's land and casino concessions, and re-sell them to the highest bidder. (Oh, if only Gary Loveman could still borrow money!)

Macau Residents meet(s) the press, Jan. 19, 2009.

If I'm skeptical that this grassroots effort might be more like Astroturf, there are a few reasons. First, the group seems to be acting with a great deal of impunity, especially in deeply authoritarian China -- though the fine points of the Macanese/Mainland interrelationship may provide some wiggle room for those who want to take it to the streets of Macao.

Second, if the rift between Adelson and Chinese authorities is wide as has been speculated, what's the harm of ginning up an ersatz "people's revolution" to discomfit some capitalist running dogs (whose money just happens to have run out)? Perhaps you can even use it as a pretext to banish them in favor of somebody with greater solvency.

Third, the job cuts that "Macao Residents" is ostensibly protesting fell with greatest predominance upon guest workers, not Macanese citizens. Though, to be fair, a management-imposed workweek reduction hits very close to home indeed.

Sheldon Adelson™

Fourth, the threat from Singapore is not as severe as it's made out, seeing how the government down there has acceded to yet another Adelson-style soft opening, starting with the casino of course, with the rest of Marina Bay Sands' convention-oriented features eventually limping onto the scene. (Sound familiar?) It's an embarrassing climbdown for a government that had set as one of its goals making a high-impact splash in the international convention trade, not a dribbly "plop."

So these activists could be front men for Peking or they could be a bunch of Davids taking on Goliath. Either way -- and especially if some of the more attention-getting scuttlebutt proves to be true -- Sands' Macanese empire, its attempt to create Instant Vegas -- whoops, sorry, Asia's Las Vegas™ -- is presently being picked at like a beached whale during low tide.

The prodigal son

Mon, 19 Jan 2009 18:03:00 -0700

Poor Kerry Packer; the late Australian mogul and famous high roller must be doing all his rolling in the grave now. Reputed for being daring at baccarat and cautious in business, the media baron is at least spared the indignity of seeing son James Packer blow through his patrimony at a record pace.

Going is the $33 million yacht; on hold is the $40 million corporate jet. Even work on the $2.5 million backyard swimming pool has been suspended. (Don't you hate it when that happens?) At least the pin placements on Packer's Greg Norman-designed golf course are still "changed every day at massive expense," reports Rupert Murdoch's News.com.au.

More seriously, Packer is reported to be suffering from depression, though other media reports dispute this. Given the debilitating, even paralyzing nature of the disease (something for which I can vouch firsthand), it puts a potentially very different cast upon Packer's December no-show for a Nevada Gaming Control Board hearing.

When Packer did turn up, Chairman Dennis Neilander admitted to being somewhat foxed by Packer's acquisition of Cannery Casino Resorts (for $1.8 billion). "You and me both," I thought. As Packer seemingly played Pin the Tail on the Donkey, buying not only Cannery but positions in Fontainebleau, Station Casinos, Harrah's Entertainment and the flaccid Crown Las Vegas 'failsino'-tower, I tried to convince myself that an overarching strategy was at work. In retrospect -- especially after the writedown of the Station and Harrah's investments -- what we were witnessing was James Packer, Shopaholic. (How did he manage to miss out on the Cosmopolitan?) One begins to see why Steve Wynn steered clear of Packer, back when the talk of a Wynn-Packer joint venture was the buzz du jour on the Strip.

Even the Crown Macau cash spigot has been sputtering, although Melco Crown CEO Lawrence Ho keeps insisting that Chinese access to Macao will improve in time for the City of Dreams opening. (Either he's whistling past the graveyard or he knows something for which others would pay a very great number of patacas.) Market share is down at Crown Macau and the Macanese government is predicting a serious diminution of gaming revenue for for the overall market in 2009, placing it somewhere near $10.7 billion.

Plus, the ripple effect doesn't stop there. Aristocrat Leisure, which could really stand to have some good news, had been hoping for a fivefold increase in its installed slot base in Macao over the next two years. Not only is that unlikely, operators are trimming their existing slot inventory.

Underscoring their pessimism regarding reduced visa restrictions, Macanese tourism officials are turning their gaze at least partly away from China. Among the newly coveted markets are Singapore's presumed feeder markets -- India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and even Australia and New Zealand -- to say nothing of Singapore itself. It's long been presumed that Singapore's got a tough row to hoe when its casino megaresorts come on line and it just keeps getting tougher.

Case Bets: CityCenter, Detroit, Boyd in Indiana

Mon, 19 Jan 2009 15:03:00 -0700

CityCenter: Cash cow or calf of gold?

It's received wisdom that, in its worship of the Golden Calf known as CityCenter, half-owner MGM Mirage is prepared to sacrifice some of its high-value properties, including MGM Grand Detroit, even in the face of numbers like these. Perhaps a history lesson is in order.

After the 9/11 attacks and the crippling blow they dealt to the Vegas economy, one of the ways companies like MGM stayed afloat (and, in MGM's case, profitable) was that their Vegas operations were backstopped by regional footholds in markets like Detroit and Biloxi. Now one keeps hearing that MGM is bent upon putting all its eggs in the Vegas basket, with even MGM Grand Macau possibly to be had.

(A moment of levity: A Dutch casino executive, speaking at G2E, suggested in all seriousness that MGM buy Station Casinos or Boyd Gaming and transplant their [locals] customer base to CityCenter. Which shows almost as little understanding of the Vegas market as I have of Holland's casino business.)

If this is an accurate reflection of the corporate thinking at MGM, shareholders should be alarmed, at the very least. A CityCenter-centric strategy concentrates risk, rather than spreading it across multiple markets. The kind of pullback that's being mooted in the blogosphere and podcast cosmos would be so irresponsible that it would call the judgment of MGM leadership into question. However, so long as said management is answerable only to Kirk Kerkorian, that question may never be called.

Don't look for rescue from Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun. Their slot revenues have been sucking wind this year. Also, salary cutbacks to 9,800 Mohegan Sun workers bode very poorly for further expansion by the casino, which was bullish on the Kansas market not so long ago.

Boyd fights back. The opening of nearby Four Winds Casino really did a number (as in approx. -40%) on revenues at Boyd's Blue Chip riverboat in northeastern Indiana. Watching double-digit revenue declines, month after month, might spur those of us with lesser intenstinal fortitude to cut and run.

Not Boyd. It's reinventing its business model for Blue Chip, in best "adapt or die" fashion. The three-pronged response of a new hotel, spa and concert venue is an aggressive pushback. It probably won't restore Blue Chip to former levels of glory, at least where gambling revenue is concerned (Four Winds still has the "convenience factor" going for it with Michigan punters). However, it does fling a strong challenge at its adversary. Four Winds, the ball is now your court.

Quote of the Day

Mon, 19 Jan 2009 14:09:00 -0700

"This would be a great case study for MBA students to have to study. You can't run a business expecting only the best. You always need a plan for what you will do if the unexpected occurs. These guys failed to do that, and it cost shareholders big time." -- Business blogger Steve Woda, on the risk-laden strategy pursued by Las Vegas Sands.

Quote of the Day

Sat, 17 Jan 2009 17:20:00 -0700

"When [Las Vegas Sands] sold its Grand Canal Shoppes mall in Las Vegas for $766 million, chief operating officer William Weidner said the company's motivation was 'to take all that money and dump it over in Cotai.'

"That's turned out to be a regrettable turn of phrase." -- from an Asia Times Online article about Sands' overseas "edifice complex."

Weidner kowtows in Macao

Thu, 15 Jan 2009 16:46:00 -0700

A large serving of humble pie for Las Vegas Sands President William Weidner was on the menu as he handed over the keys to the University of Macau's new Adelson Advanced Education Center. No, he said, he didn't blame his company's financial problems on the Chinese government, as had been reported. Sands would be "less American" in its approach to developing Henquin Island. If people had misinterpreted Sands' confidence as an "over-direct, overpowering American attitude," it had been "humbled" now. (Topic for U of Macau students: "Las Vegas Sands as Metaphor for U.S. Foreign Policy, 2001-09." Discuss.)

Quoth Weidner, "all our earnings in Macao have stayed in Macao and were matched five times over by additional investments in Macao.” Ah, so they were cannibalizing Macanese revenue, rolling it into Cotai Strip™ expansion, after all.

Small wonder that Sands is resented within Macao if, as The Independent reports, it's been sweating employees' tips. Then again, the paper's report of $953 million in Macao casino profit last quarter is clearly out of wack. (The reporter himself seems unsure whether it's revenue or profit, though it's clearly the latter.)

As for the newly available Taiwan market, Weidner demurred. Finishing projects in Singapore (where the projections look inauspicious) and Macao are his priorities, he said. Given Sands' parlous financial state, it's now a moot point ... but did CEO Sheldon Adelson's comrades in Peking warn him away from Taiwanese expansion? Adelson had been sussing out casino prospects there.

Perhaps. After all, Melco Crown Entertainment CEO Lawrence Ho was quick to temper his own Taiwanese ambitions with the caveat, "we wouldn't want to do anything to piss [the Chinese government] off." Unfortunately for Melco Int'l and other Macao-centric gaming stocks, the market isn't buying the younger Ho's contention that visa expansion is just a few months away -- especially in light of recent gambling scandals that have led to, among other things, 15 executions [registration req'd]. Play too much Super Happy Fortune Cat and you might wind up in front of a firing squad, too, or at least doing a couple of dimes in the slammer.

Back home, the latest busted LBO play for the Golden Nuggets, combined with parent Landry's issuance of more debt, has knocked 48% off the stock price in less than a week. Considering that the last two tender offers for LNY shares went out at $21 and $13.50, respectively, that $7/share buyout offer should be coming along any day now.

'Gang' at Encore

Thu, 15 Jan 2009 11:49:00 -0700

Yesterday saw an unusual -- but altogether pleasant -- change in the Vegas Gang routine, as we taped "on location" from a seventh-floor room in Encore, overlooking Echelon and the increasingly ominous Fontainebleau (so disproportionately massive it looms over its neighbors like Godzilla or Gammera over mere mortals). Both David G. Schwartz and Jeff Simpson joined us by speakerphone, giving the conversation a certain Charlie's Angels vibe.

It's Fontainebleau ... coming to stomp us all! Run for your lives!

Spoilers ahead ...

I'm clearly very much in the minority on the likelihood of a Mirage or Bellagio sale. Cash cows they may well be, but there seems to be a strong consensus that their tires are being kicked and serious talks are underway, as well as that The Mirage has become a stodgy property.

Also that MGM Mirage is a Vegas-Vegas-Vegas-obsessed company and would be willing to sacrifice the Gulf Coast and Detroit markets -- the latter of which it utterly dominates -- to keep the CityCenter bucks a-flowin'. (And why would MGM bail on Detroit and not on the sickly Illinois market instead? Or Tunica? Or ... ? If Alex Yemenidjian would pay $435 million for an Illinois license, what might he put down on actual, operational asset?)

Such a strategy would fly in the face, if not of sense, at least of recent casino industry thinking, whereby you try to maintain strong footholds in the second-tier markets and not put all your chips on Vegas (unless you're Steve Wynn and even he tried it once). It would be like Harrah's Entertainment evacuating Atlantic City to raise money for its stalled Octavius Tower.

And you could knock me over with a feather if MGM sells its Macao demi-concession to partner Pansy Ho or back to her father Stanley, especially after all the hoops MGM had to jump through to get into Macao. Bailing on the world's #1 casino town would be an indicator of extreme desperation bordering on insanity.

Unfortunately, we weren't able to get into the provenance of the urban legend that Phil Ruffin's Treasure Island purchase was just a big-ass/short-term loan to MGM, with "T.I." serving as collateral -- and at 55% interest, no less.

Lean prospects for City of Dreams

Tue, 13 Jan 2009 12:59:00 -0700

Or "City of -- interrupted -- Dreams" as it's called on Flickr. Whatever the case, Melco Crown Entertainment is committing to a 2Q09 opening of City of Dreams, hopefully absorbing some of unemployment currently stemming from Las Vegas Sands' stuttering Macanese operations and from struggles and the company's own Crown Macau. (Most of the 9,000 Sands-related pink slips are in construction, so don't expect City of Dreams 7,000 job openings to make much of a dent there.)

Either CEO Lawrence Ho has a back channel to Peking or he's engaging in wishful thinking. Either way, he predicted to reporters that visa restrictions from the Chinese mainland would be eased in "the next few months" (just in time for the City of Dreams opening, imagine that) and that last weekend's visit to Macao by the vice president of China means that economic relief is on the way. While Peking needs to reopen the throttle on visitation to Macao, its stated priority -- wrongheaded or otherwise -- remains that the semi-autonomous zone must diversify its economy. (Talk about "easier said than done"!)

Ho's views stand in stark contrast to those of a pair of Morgan Stanley analysts who foresee no visa relief -- plus a further 10% decline in casino revenue -- for the balance of 2009. Furthermore, Deutsche Bank's Karen Tang points out that high-end Melco Crown is an unlikely beneficiary of increased mass-market play (think SJM, maybe Sands).

If average casino revenue continues at the diminished rates projected by Macao über-boss Edmund Ho (no relation), Melco Crown would be looking at a 19% falloff from its 3Q08 pace. It would also mean that casino revenues in the enclave are flat with 2007, despite a considerable infusion of new capacity. As discomfiting as it may be, taking a "go (very) slow" policy on additional construction is -- with the arguable exception of overachiever Wynn Macau -- clearly the prudent course of action.

Analyst drinks the Kool-Aid

Mon, 12 Jan 2009 19:07:00 -0700

Marina Bay Sands: Most profitable casino EVER?

Perhaps your eyebrows were raised when you saw this very roseate Las Vegas Sands story Monday morning. Mine sure went up when I got to the part where Jefferies & Co. analyst Larry Klatzkin predicts that Marina Bay Sands, a behind-schedule $2.7 billion Singapore project, "will result in the opening of the most profitable casino in the world."

"Larry's drunk the Sheldon Adelson Kool-Aid once too often," was my immediate reaction. Then I thought I was perhaps too harsh.

Apparently not. The Las Vegas Review-Journal's John L. Smith saw the Panglossian forecast and wrote, "like a weatherman in Los Angeles, its friend in the analyst business, Lawrence Klatzkin of Jefferies & Co., always sees plenty of sunshine."

Mincing even fewer words, Howard Stutz reported that Klatzkin "is thought of as a lapdog of ... Sheldon Adelson." Ouch! And he doesn't stop there. A brave man, that Stutz, as his next conversation with Klatzkin -- a prickly fellow at the best of times -- is likely to be quite unpleasant. It certainly makes up for Stutz's soft-soap J. Terrence Lanni tribute in the Sunday R-J.

If I had to guess where Klatzin got his prediction, I wouldn't have to go very far out on a limb. Klatzkin was one of the listeners on Sands' 3Q08 earnings call, held Nov. 10, wherein LVS execs predicted a $1.26 billion 2012 cash flow in Singapore, based on what used to be termed "fuzzy math."

In essence, they attribute Macao-level business to Marina Bay and throw in a bunch of other assumptions to fudge the vast tourism disparity between Macao (27 billion) and Singapore (10.3 million). Some of my Vegas Gang colleagues heard the conference call and they weren't buying Sands Senior VP Brad Stone's line of argument but it was clearly music to Klatkzin's ears. (Singapore's population dwarfs Macao's but its paternalistic government has been actively discouraging casino patronage by Singaporeans.)

More power to Adelson if he can pull those projections off. You might even say it would be a business miracle.