David Mckee's Stiffs & Georges - Carl Icahn

Hope for Boardwalk?

Tue, 13 Oct 2009 16:08:00 -0700

As you know, S&G puts more stock in year/year comparisons than sequential ones, but the most recent set from Atlantic City affords a slender reed of hope. With the help of tighter slots, A.C. held its September decline to 6%, the lowest of 2009 and the smallest drop in over a year. Even perpetual dog Resorts International had a good month, up 4% y/y.

Both in dollar volume ($63 million) and growth (6%), the leader was -- no surprise -- Borgata. In fact, the Boyd Gaming property made more than the four lowest-grossing properties (Resorts, Atlantic City Hilton, Trump Plaza, Trump Marina) combined. The two lesser Trump properties slipped below the Colony Capital ones, so one doesn't know whether to feel good for Colony or sorry for Trump Entertainment Resorts. The handover of Resorts Int'l continues to proceed slowly, as regulators enter uncharted waters with understandable caution.

Percentage-wise, Showboat, the Hilton and the Plaza had the worst of it, while gainers included Harrah's Atlantic City (3%) and even the Tropicana (1%). But the bloom is off the Trump Taj Mahal rose; it fell back to the middle of the pack, grossing $36 million.

One unexpected factor in the city's bump was a late-September, gay-themed promotion at the four Harrah's Entertainment properties. For all the lip service paid, year after year, to diversifying Atlantic City's appeal, Don Marrandino and his Harrah's colleagues backed up the talk with meaningful action.

Dead casino walking: Trump Marina

Back at Trump, its CEO, Mark Juliano declares "The real question is how long until we get back to the results we saw in past years, which is the question everyone in every business has." No, the real question is: On what planet is Mr. Juliano living? And: Do they have oxygen up there?

The math is inexorable. Excluding three months of sub-2% growth, Atlantic City's revenues have going one way -- down -- for the last seven quarters, often by double-digit margins. Casinos in Pennsylvania continue to ramp up, Delaware is talking very seriously about casino expansion, slot parlors in Maryland are in train and then there's prospect of additional competition from the greater New York City area.

Instead of asking "Where are the snows of yesteryear," S&G modestly suggests the Boardwalk's casino braintrust ought to be thinking about how to move forward into a future of diminished (i.e., more realistic) expectations.

Up the road, now that the novelty factor has worn off of Sands Bethlehem (above), the $724 million casino remains mired in fifth place. The solution? More and bigger promotions, it would appear. Judging by the lukewarm response to Sands and to Rivers Casino, the Pennsylvania market isn't big enough to support casinos built with Vegas-sized budgets.

Atlantic City sucks ...

Tue, 22 Sep 2009 18:05:00 -0700

... says the Motley Fool, in essence. Even Borgata, which posted a higher operating profit year/year, is deemed merely to suck less than everybody else. I'm not sure I'm with the Fools on this one. For instance, shouldn't Sands Bethlehem be doing better than fifth among Pennsylvania casinos, especially when you consider its proximity to New York City?

Elsewhere on the Boardwalk, the UAW is fighting Trump Plaza, the Plaza is fighting the National Labor Relations Board and Trump dealers are fighting amongst themselves. Since 32% of dealers initially voted against UAW representation, it should be a cinch to round up 30% to sign a decertification petition. Kudos to Trump Entertainment Resorts CEO Mark Juliano for going out of his way to soothe potential animosity between labor and management.

MILF convention in A.C.: On Oct. 3, former Bunnies and other veterans of the short-lived Playboy Hotel & Casino will return to the shore to relive the good old days. A few might even wriggle into their old Bunny costumes. Maybe a re-infusion of the Playboy brand is what Atlantic City needs. It can only help. Are you listening, Carl Icahn? Revel? Pinnacle Entertainment? Anybody?

Finally, a reason to visit Orlando ...

... or maybe not. And that dude from Scotland is in serious need of subtitles.

Resort-style casinos come to Colorado and doesn't Ameristar's new hotel look lovely? Now, if only somebody would build a mid-market property like this on the Strip. Why must average Americans settle for older, second-tier properties if they're to afford a Vegas vacation?

Health care reform + Internet gambling? Is it just me or is Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) onto something here? This may be just the carrot to dangle in front of legislators who still balk at allowing Americans to wager on the Web.

Creditors screwed again. How much is Greektown Casino worth? Is it the $725 million its creditors claim? Or the $540 million that Greektown asserts? Or maybe the lowball $485 million that lead bidder Tom Celani is willing to pay? Greektown's recent -- and well-publicized -- inroads into the market share of its Detroit rivals lend merit to the higher-end valuations. If the place was in the doghouse, I might sympathize with Celani (who's likely to boot the very management team responsible for Greektown's turnaround), but Fine Point Group has definitely enhanced a once-seedy casino's value.

It's official. VIP-player commissions in Macao will be capped. Since the war over junketeer commissions was threatening to make Macao a negative-revenue proposition, the new ceiling will greatly improve cash flow for Macanese operators. Middle-of-the-pack Galaxy Entertainment is expected to benefit the most (+27% EBITDA), followed at some distance by Stanley Ho (16%), with Las Vegas Sands and MGM Mirage bringing up the rear. Although the elderly Ho may be on his deathbed, he's lived long enough to broker peace in a potentially destructive situation where the only sure winners were the sought-after junket operators.

Meet the new Trop boss ...

Wed, 26 Aug 2009 16:29:00 -0700

... largely the same as the old boss. Tropicana Entertainment's diligent efforts to get back into the Tropicana Atlantic City have finally paid off. Thus (nearly) ends a prolonged interregnum during which no clearly superior alternativves emerged. Well ... there was an extended flirtation with Cordish Gaming but butterfingered trustee Justice Gary Stein fumbled that away.

Since Carl Icahn's stealthy buy-up of TropEnt stock extinguished Columbia Sussex CEO William J. Yung III's ownership rights, the era of Attila the Yung has finally ended. Also, getting Stein out and private ownership back in is a transition that can't happen soon enough.

On the downside, Trop property prexy Mark Giannantonio (a Yung appointee) remains at the helm. Also, TropEnt CEO Scott Butera and his lieutenants did an undistinguished job of running the Tropicana Las Vegas before selling it to Onex Corp. They still have a lot to prove in Atlantic City.

I was just saying ...

Wed, 12 Aug 2009 12:55:00 -0700

... to a colleague that, given Atlantic City's dismal July numbers, a plea for governmental assistance had to be just 'round the corner. Well, whaddya know? In at least five instances, Atlantic City's casinos are run by companies that just reported profitable quarters, while four more just changed hands for pennies on the dollar. Not to mention that Colony C(r)apital, owner of the remaining two, supposedly was willing to put some or all of $244 million into bankrupt Station Casinos.

I don't mean to sound unsympathetic, but ... considering that Garden State citizens are being asked to tighten their belts, forego tax rebates and the like, if the casino industry needs $20 million to market itself then it can damn well pass the hat and raise the cash in-house. Besides, there's something unseemly about "pull yourself up by your bootstraps" capitalists clamoring for guvmint subsidy, especially in a state filled with people who are in much greater need. (Yes, I know these are interconnected issues but we're talking casinos that gross hundreds of millions of dollars every month. They're not exactly paupers.)

The article's final paragraph (misleadingly) implies that Trump Entertainment's three casinos, the Tropicana Atlantic City and the two Colony properties are all in danger of closing. But might Atlantic City be better off with five -- or six, if Revel can be finished -- strong casinos, whilst the sicklier ones are put out of their misery?

A reader posed that question to me ... and now I pass it along to you.

Carl Icahn, comedian?

Tue, 11 Aug 2009 16:02:00 -0700

"As a result of [Tropicana Entertainment's] continued use of the Tropicana marks in interstate commerce, the Tropicana marks have achieved fame and notoriety and are associated in the minds of consumers nationwide with a consistent level of high-quality casino, entertainment and hotel and restaurant services." -- from court filings by Tropicana Entertainment, proud owner of the Tropicana Express in Laughlin, proprietor of the Horizon in Lake Tahoe (above) and evicted operator of the Tropicana Atlantic City. Uh, yeah, that "notoriety" part is right on the money. TropEnt is suing the Tropicana Las Vegas to enjoin it from using the "Tropicana" name.

Aztar deal the worst ever: it's quantifiable

Tue, 28 Jul 2009 12:39:00 -0700

When he acquired Aztar Corp., back in 2006, Columbia Sussex CEO William J. Yung III also became one of the company's debtors. So what's his $36 million worth today? According to the Wall Street Journal, 100 grand or less. If that weren't enough to make the ColSux/Aztar deal the all-time biggest casino-sector wipeout of the last 15 years, consider that Carl Icahn's "$200 million" credit bid (i.e., no money down) was placed with debt acquired at 27 cents on the dollar. So Icahn has himself a new casino for a tidy $54 million outlay.

In a less-reported development, Icahn also gained a controlling position in Tropicana Entertainment. Without either its Atlantic City or Las Vegas Trops, it'd be a car without an engine, a gaggle of riverboats and motels. Exactly where this leaves CEO Scott Butera and what role he'll play remains an open question. Hopefully, either his or Icahn's first move in Atlantic City will be to replace floundering Trop General Manager Mark Giannantonio (a Yung crony) with someone more up to the job.

Movement at Cosmo: The GM of Caesars Palace, John Unwin, has resigned. He'll become CEO of the stalled Cosmopolitan in October. While it's still unclear under whose aegis the casino will be run, Unwin's hiring is the first concrete move to get some gaming expertise on board since Deutsche Bank seized the property.

Whining in Macao: Those two "integrated resorts" in Singapore haven't even opened yet and won't for another half a year, but Stanley Ho (whose venerable Hotel Lisboa is seen above) already has his panties in a bunch. According to Bloomberg News, the ancient casino oligarch has been wringing his hands about the burdensome, "serious issue" posed by Macao's 39% tax rate.

Boy, Singapore must be a more serious threat than I'd given it credit, if it's got a Communist Party suck-up like Dr. Ho all a-twitter and taking issue with the government. He's still in better shape than his American rivals; the attempt to graft Vegas-style megaresorts onto Macao has left them badly exposed to anemic market conditions. Ho's gambling-centric strategy gives him less cause for worry.

Today Singapore, tomorrow the U.S.? Even while lender's remorse has paralyzed American banks and stalled any hopes of "unbundling" the U.S. casino industry, diversification may be coming from an unlikely corner. Malaysia's Genting Bhd, riding a sustained runup in its stock, has $2 billion in the kitty, is raising more and could pump $7 billion into casino acquisitions.

That isn't to say there aren't a lot of "ifs" and "buts." Still, Genting's fundamentals appear far more sound than those of say, Las Vegas Sands. It's also in a position to deal a serious blow to Sands in Singapore. Not only will its Sentosa Island casino-resort open before Marina Bay Sands, but customers who "subscribe" to a $1,388/year entrance fee to one casino or another must play exclusively at that casino for the year. Once again, Sheldon Adelson's inability to finish a megaresort on schedule threatens to bite him in the butt.

A Trop by any other name

Mon, 27 Jul 2009 17:05:00 -0700

Icahn Capital, which purchased the Tropicana Atlantic City for $54 million, effectively, is projecting a conservative course for the property. Any sort of expansion is being ruled out for now, due to skepticism about "green shoots" of economic recovery.

Speaking of distrust, the New Jersey Casino Commission still needs to be convinced that Icahn's preferred operator, Tropicana Entertainment, isn't a stalking horse for Columbia Sussex CEO William J. Yung III. (Both companies employ the same corporate mouthpiece, for instance.) Besides, if ties between TropEnt and Icahn are severed, what becomes of the "Tropicana" name?

(Also, calling TropEnt's eight raggle-taggle, non-Vegas/Atlantic City casinos an "empire" is pretty generous. A series of minor duchies and prinicipalities? Yeah, that's more like it.)

It doesn't look like a standalone A.C. Trop would have ownership of its name, as that remains with the "OpCo," that "empire" under which all the miscellaneous former Aztar Corp. and ColSux casinos are bunched. Tropicana Las Vegas boss Alex Yemenidjian apparently didn't read the fine print and may have to shell out $2 million a year to keep the name that is, along with its land, the LV Trop's main equity.

Would a Trop by any other name be just as marketable? One highly doubts it.

The Wild, Wild Midwest. Back in Illinois, the guvmint continues to take a "Ready, Fire, Aim!" approach to its management of the casino business. In his zeal to get slot routes up and running, Gov. Pat Quinn didn't appropriate extra moolah or manpower to ride herd on the influx of new gambling devices.

So, if you're a bar owner in the Land of Lincoln, it's a free for all. The state's casino owners, meanwhile, will probably have to wait until at least early next year before any financial relief makes its way through the Lege. Illinois isn't just killing the golden goose; it's serving it for lunch at the governor's mansion.

Suing the Chairman. One of the many interesting revelations in the Terrance K. Watanabe lawsuit is that Harrah's Entertainment created a special "Chairman" tier of players in his honor. (Take that, you Seven Stars members!) Watanabe's counterfilings against Harrah's also allege confidential agreements between the company and the high roller whereby he had a two-month (or greater) window of time to make good on his markers.

The documents further allege that Harrah's violated the agreement by cashing in the markers early. It sounds more and more like Watanabe has Harrah's CEO Gary Loveman by the short hairs. If the covenants can be substantiated, then Harrah's made a loan -- which is unenforceable -- and may have been in breach of contract. The company better get ready to eat $14.75 million. Compared to the nearly $300 million Loveman just wrote off, that's walking-around money.

Not that Watanabe is a pitiable victim in this drama. Seems he was rather a prima donna, dictating which employees would and would not dance attendance upon him. He was also able to have gambling tables and slot machines moved into special curtained alcoves, the bettter to squander his wealth in seclusion. To paraphrase Fitzgerald and Hemingway, the rich are not like you and I; they have more neuroses.

Trop and tribulation

Wed, 08 Jul 2009 07:47:00 -0700

A pair of New Jersey lawmakers are hopping mad about the costly, dubiously competent Tropicana Atlantic City trusteeship of Justice Gary Stein. The solons are particularly het up over the way Stein was feathering his own nest.

"It is unacceptable, but not surprising, that this transaction would drag on for almost two years, yielding a cut-rate price for the sale and ballooning legal fees for the law firm of the state-appointed conservator," fumed Assemblyman Vince Polistina (R). He and colleague John Amodeo (R) will seek to impose new ethics rules and fee ceilings on future casino conservators. Good on them.

Divergent responses from within the New Jersey Casino Control Commission make interesting reading. The NJCCC's spokesman circles the wagons around Stein while Chairwoman Linda Kassekert -- clearly hip to which way the wind is blowing -- lines up with Amodeo and Polistina. She put Stein in the catbird seat but clearly has scant compunction about cutting him loose now that he's a millstone around her neck.

Goodman for governor ... again?

Fri, 12 Jun 2009 12:21:00 -0700

It's been bruited since at least 2002 and it's happening yet again: Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman is mulling a gubernatorial run for the umpteenth time. "Spoiler!", cry some. I look at the uninspiring field (Montandon, Heck, Midnight Jim, Buckley, R. Reid) and ask, "What's there to spoil?"

Buddy: The Buddy Holly Story: Drove the Chevy (Cobalt) to the levee but the levee was dry. How do you stretch a 75-minute tribute act into a two-hour/two-act Broadway musical? Badly, it seems.

Xanadu: It wasn't just a wretched Olivia Newton-John movie, Kubla Khan's pleasure palace or Charles Foster Kane's crib. It was also was also Martin Stern's unbuilt casino magnum opus. Dr. David G. Schwartz has revived his online museum dedicated to this project, "Paradise Misplaced." If it had been built, over 30 years ago, Xanadu would probably be one of those Strip casinos we now chuckle at, thinking it small, quaint and perhaps overdue for implosion. But it might have saved us from having to look at the oversize eyesore that is Excalibur, which looks laughably crude next to Stern's elegant designs.

Dr. Schwartz even recreates the Vegas of 1975. We've come a long way since then ... but who wouldn't want to hop into the Wayback Machine and experience the more spacious Strip that existed 34 years ago?

In between trying to wrap up Question of the Day essays on Carl Icahn, Stan Fulton, and condo sales in Las Vegas, I'm clearing the blotter of a few things that have fallen through the transom lately, such as ...

Elements: CityLife's Al Mancini didn't care for this new eatery, just off Tropicana Ave. The not-quite-missus and I ate there on opening night and had a better experience for our money. This review, intended for the most recent Las Vegas Advisor, didn't make the cut, so I offer it for your delectation:

Oscar didn't turn up for the May 13 opening but he'd definitely be in his, uh, element here, considering that the menu boasts no fewer than 253 martinis. Choosing but two was difficult but we opted for a chocolate-banana martini and the Miami Vice. If you want Strip-quality (or better) eating and drinking at off-Strip prices, you cannot go wrong with Elements. Both the martinis and the small plates inhabit the $7-$9 range, while the costliest entrée tops out at $25.

We started with the Kona beef short rib on gorgonzola polenta ($9) and it did not disappoint in either tastiness or generosity of portion. There are only two steaks on the menu but both were outstanding, though the black angus flank steak ($21) is quite a bit spicier than even the peppercorn-garnished black angus filet ($25). Both were accompanied by mashed potatoes and steamed vegetables. Only the dreaded cold butter-on-cold bread basket and sluggish service (despite a small crowd) detracted from a flavor-rich experience.

Margaritaville wastes away

Tue, 02 Jun 2009 12:20:00 -0700

In an utterly (not) shocking development, the interminably protracted sale of Trump Marina has given up the ghost. This deal was on life support for months, so today's bulletin merely ratifies the inevitable. The would-be reinvention of the Marina as "Margaritaville" has exhausted its last shaker of salt.

While it goes against the grain to give Donald Trump the benefit of the doubt, buyer Richard Fields' accusation of "fraudulent activity" sounds like a big stretch. The supposedly heinous deed was Trump Entertainment Resorts' movement of players from the Marina to Trump Taj Mahal and Trump Plaza.

Big whoop. Not only was this the obvious explanation for Trump Marina's plunge to the bottom of the Atlantic City food chain, it's what casino companies do. You don't sell a casino and leave your hard-earned customer base in place for the next guy's benefit. (Readers with long memories will recall that a deal by Park Place Entertainment to sell the Las Vegas Hilton to Silverton owner Ed Roski fell apart over the exact same issue.)

Had Trump CEO Mark Juliano not moved prime players to his two remaining properties, he'd have been derelict in his duty to the shareholders. Unfortunately, now he may have to build that customer base back up. I don't envy him the task.

It also strikes an odd note that Fields' lawyer accuses Trump of fraud and then Fields' spokesman has the brass to say Coastal Marina still might deign to buy the Marina -- at an additional discount. Juliano had already knocked 15% off the sticker price. Perhaps Fields is feeling emboldened by Carl Icahn's impending $200 million acquisition of the Tropicana Atlantic City and is attempting brinksmanship. Fields is making some big noises about shopping around Atlantic City for a different casino, describing the town as "the perfect market for a Margaritaville project."

Good luck with that, unless he's willing to settle for one of Colony C(r)apital's two near-death properties. Harrah's Entertainment is carrying at least one casino too many on the Boardwalk but there's no way in hell that CEO Gary Loveman parts with Bally's or the Showboat for a measly $270 million or so. Harrah's current reporting method really muddies the waters but the cash-flow numbers still imply an asking price well in excess of what Fields can afford.

Raymond Kot, 1952-2009

The accused killer of Trump Taj shift manager Raymond Kot is one messed-up motherfucker, and that's as gently as I can describe Mark Magee, who appears to have stalked and killed Kot in very cold blood indeed. Taj game-protection veteran Dr. David G. Schwartz offers some expert-witness testimony, if you will. Kot's only crime was to achieve the American Dream ... until his assassin decreed otherwise.

Report from the Strat

Tue, 02 Jun 2009 11:12:00 -0700

A reader asked (possibly in jest) how the Hard Rock Hotel was vis-a-vis the Stratosphere. While I don't have the basis for an A:A comparison, I can comfortably say that if you can afford the Hard Rock, it's no contest. Under new owner Goldman Sachs, the Strat appears to have -- if you'll pardon the expression -- passed its peak and begun a slow descent into seediness.

The slot mix is very "blah" and decidedly third-tier, with lots of generic machines and ones you've probably never heard of before. And while the HRH's casino floor is designed so that it contains and heightens the energy, it's the opposite case at the Strat. The latter is an anachronism: a post-Mirage casino designed with a pre-Mirage "capture" mentality.* It's absurdly strung out, as though intentionally diffusing and minimizing the energy of the play that's taking place. The amount of action looked pretty respectable for a Monday night but was muted by the immensity and sparseness of the space itself.

It's like MGM Grand without any of the upside. If you're heading to the showroom be sure and pack water and provisions (or hire a rickshaw) because you're in for a long hike. While Goldman Sachs may have been cutting back on staff, the timeshare barkers -- a holdover from the Carl Icahn era -- continue to accost customers at will. By what twisted logic do casino executives convince themselves that allowing their patrons to be hassled in this fashion is actually good for business?

* -- for this we have Lyle Berman and Bob Stupak to thank, but they've long since left the building.

Pansy Ho: time for Plan C

Fri, 22 May 2009 18:12:00 -0700

In my usual cart-first, horse-later fashion, I elicited a legal opinion regarding the scenario I postulated the other night: MGM Mirage spinning off either its Atlantic City holdings or MGM Grand Macau into a quasi-autonomous entity, much as Sheldon Adelson proposes to do with his Macao properties.

Well, unless Pansy Ho can sit down with the New Jersey Casino Control Commission and charm them into turning a blind eye to the penumbra of unsavoriness that surrounds her father, Stanley Ho, MGM is up against a wall. It could put MGM Grand Macau into a limited partnership in which it would have equity but no power.

Did MGM spend so much time and money getting into Macao just so it could be a passive investor? Probably not. So either MGM has to scrape together the cash to buy out the Ho family or Pansy and her sister can exercise their right of first refusal on the property.

Likewise, Boyd Gaming holds the prerogative of acquiring MGM's Borgata share, but of all the possible scenarios on deck, that appears the most unlikely. Here's why:

Borgata represents no ongoing cost to MGM. It can sit back and collect 50% of the profits in perpetuity, while Boyd does the heavy lifting. In Macao, not only does MGM have to run the place, it's in a market with narrower profit margins, thanks to a confiscatory tax rate and the commissions charged by junket operators -- to say nothing of the draconian meddling of the Chinese government. And if it's relying solely on mass-market play, it's not enough to get MGM out of single-digit market share.

MGM took too long and spent too much getting into Macao to be happy with being stuck in sixth place among operators. If it's going to have to amputate a limb, losing Macao may be the less painful cut.

It could also be the more lucrative one because, even in a down market, Macao has two very price-boosting qualities: a finite number of casino concessions and a comparable limitation on casino-zoned land. Neither freeze is likely to thaw anytime soon.

Macao is still a seller's market. But if Boyd were to decline its option on MGM's half of Borgata, other suitors are going to be very hard to find. Nobody wants in on Revel or Bader Field and the Tropicana is essentially being given away. The accomplished Ms. Ho could still pull MGM's chestnuts out of the fire but if she can't, her family could wind up with 2.5 of the six casino concessions in Macao.*

* -- slightly more, actually, as James Packer's stake in Melco Crown Entertainment is exceeded by that of Lawrence Ho.

Pinnacle: the untold story

Tue, 21 Apr 2009 11:51:00 -0700

Is waxing and buffing the Pinnacle Entertainment limo a prerequisite for scoring an interview with its CEO? This small masterpiece of selective omission is more interesting for what it elides than what it says. The article parrots Dan Lee as saying Pinnacle believes "not to start building something without the money to finish."

That's an excellent precept but it would resound with greater authority had Pinnacle not gotten bogged down in Atlantic City by failing to practice what it preaches. It bought Carl Icahn's old Sands, razed it, cleared the land ... then found it couldn't raise the capital to build the megaresort Lee had envisioned. By that point, Pinnacle had exercised such a heavy hand in its attempts to acquire more acreage -- at prices it intended to dictate to the market -- that the project's subsequent collapse didn't even inspire much regret along the Boardwalk. Now Pinnacle's got money tied up in Atlantic City it could be using to go trophy hunting along the Strip.

Also, it's not a good sign that Pinnacle's half-billion-dollar Lumiere Place is finishing a very distant second in the company's portfolio, doing only 57% the revenue of L'Auberge du Lac, down in Lake Charles, La. True, L'Auberge owns a near-stranglehold on its market, while Lumiere Place has several competitors. But the latter has scarcely made a dent in rival operations by Harrah's Entertainment and Ameristar Casinos. Nor, despite being smack-dab in the middle of the St. Louis waterfront, has it pulled significant amounts of business away from Casino Queen, across the river in Illinois.

Pinnacle has overspent and overcommitted itself -- and don't forget it nearly followed Columbia Sussex over the precipice in the feverish bidding for Aztar Corp. To Lee's considerable credit (no pun intended): A) corporate debt is below $1 billion; B) Pinnacle completely outfoxed Harrah's in their Lake Charles-for-Biloxi property swap; C) that Houston-fed market is rich enough to carry Pinnacle for the time being, and D) a clever if anti-competitive ballot initiative (for which Ameristar's Troy Stremming gets most of the credit) will entrench Pinnacle's Missouri position.

As 2009's gaming group goes, Pinnacle is faring better than all but a few. But it's made its share of MGM Mirage-like mistakes, just on a smaller, more-affordable scale. Pinnacle wasn't the only irrationally exuberant casino company during the 2005-07 boom but let's not go paint it as a paragon of restraint, either.

Deep within the septic tank that is the Las Vegas Review-Journal's online-comments section one finds the (very) occasional fact. In the case of the gaping void left at the Tropicana Las Vegas by the peremptory closure of Folies Bergere, longtime Vegas observer Phil Hevener had the following scoop: "One of the issues at the Trop was that the owners decided to leave the matter of a show for the new operator (Alex Yemenidjian) since show creators and hotel builders alike are having trouble finding money these days."

Not only does that have the ring of plausibility but when Hevener's got a tip, chances are you can take it to the bank. As for CEO Scott Butera and his underwhelming LV Trop administration, do you ever get the feeling they're just making it up as they go along?

Icahn vs. Kerkorian III

Mon, 20 Apr 2009 15:25:00 -0700

Former Stratosphere owner Carl Icahn says it's nothing personal, just business. This is reposted here because, among other reasons, the version embedded by the Las Vegas Review-Journal plays only in an extremely constipated manner. Here's hoping we do better. Best moment: Icahn tries to bullshit "Money Honey" Maria Bartiromo, who's not having any of it and comes back at the old raider twice as hard. Good job.

Icahn vs. Kerkorian II; Ho hearts Adelson

Fri, 17 Apr 2009 11:18:00 -0700

Yesterday saw some intemperate spluttering in newspaper comment threads, along the lines "How dare the Wall Street Journal report the news? It might damage stock prices!" (One hothead even bruited the possibility of a libel suit.) All of which was predicated on the assumption -- and we know what happens when we assume -- that the WSJ was merely chasing rumors when it reported that Carl Icahn and Oaktree Capital Management were putting the squeeze on MGM Mirage, trying to steer it into bankruptcy. (Some -- including The Economist -- think a CityCenter-driven bankruptcy is inevitable, regardless.)

Undeterred, the WSJ is back with the full story today and it's the real deal. Icahn and Oaktree are not acting in concert and their agendas are different. Icahn is thought to be angling for a piece of the company while Oaktree likes MGM the way it is, if only it could "clean up its balance sheet." Were they able to force the bankruptcy issue, their rights would supersede owner Kirk Kerkorian's and regime change would surely follow.

But that presupposes a great deal ... not the least the 'great deal' MGM got from its bankers when it was able to borrow $7 billion unsecured. Also, crunch time is still a long way off. Icahn and Oaktree's best chances for bending MGM to their will won't come until July or October, when an aggregate $1.5 billion in bonds must be repurchased. In order to prevail, either Oaktree, Icahn or both would have to thwart that repurchase, presumably by refusing to tender their bonds. But MGM still has a few cards to play in the meantime.

Across the Pacific, Bloomberg has the skinny today on what went down at Sheldon Adelson and Stanley Ho's secret lunch at Venetian Macao earlier this week and a subsequent summit meeting yesterday. (Melco Crown Entertainment CEO Lawrence Ho joined the oligarchs, as did MGM Grand Macau co-owner Pansy Ho, along with a local proxy for Wynn Resorts).*

It seems that detente is the word for the day, with the two ancient enemies agreeing to forego their arms race in favor of cooperation. Or, as the 87-year-old Ho put it, “Everyone agreed not to compete, to have enough rice to eat and to get more taxes for the government." (Adelson was uncharacteristically mum.)

... where the elite meet.

Considering the "cutthroat competition" (as Ho once put it, shortly after some junket operators had their throats slashed) that's prevailed so far in Macao, this new entente cordiale sounds like something that's going to be far easier said than done -- especially when the market begins to rebound. The latter already shows signs of bottoming out. MEAG Hong Kong Ltd. Investment Director John Koh speculated prior to Thursday's superpower meeting that the Adelson/Ho accord would mandate:

• one standard rate for junketeer commissions

• a salary freeze

• a hands-off policy toward one another's VIP ~~players~~ hosts and/or key executives

Since Adelson has several Cotai Strip™ projects -- including a St. Regis and a Shangri-La -- gathering rust, could his sudden amity with the Ho clan be a means of courting bailout money? And how would the Macanese government -- to say nothing of Steve Wynn -- react to the prospect of a polyamorous alliance betwixt SJM, Las Vegas Sands, Melco International and Ms. Ho's Shun Tak Holdings, say? Such a hyrda-headed oligopoly would give competitors a great deal to worry about and seems far from inconceivable, given the desperate circumstances of certain of the parties involved.

*--Galaxy Entertainment seems to have been conspicuous by its absence, but that underachieving company has other Koi fish to fry. The fact that Galaxy is writing down the value of its license, though, says less about the Macao market than about Galaxy and its failure to make substantial inroads, despite being one of the first companies on the scene.

Icahn vs. Kerkorian

Thu, 16 Apr 2009 16:06:00 -0700

According to a brief item in the Wall Street Journal, former Stratosphere owner Carl Icahn and investment fund Oaktree Capital Management are putting the squeeze on MGM Mirage and its majority shareholder Kirk Kerkorian. Quoth the WSJ, Icahn and Oaktree "have each gobbled up hundreds of millions of MGM Mirage bonds and have told the troubled casino giant it should quickly overhaul its massive debts in bankruptcy ... " And where does Carl Icahn especially like to make acquisitions? In bankruptcy proceedings, that's where. The paper says Icahn and Oaktree have made it known to MGM that bankruptcy "is the best option" for the company." Whether or not Icahn's endgame is to wrest MGM away from Kerkorian or simply to get a seat at the table, we could be looking at a real clash of the titans.

Adelson in the details

Fri, 03 Apr 2009 12:39:00 -0700

Nearly lost amidst a flurry of news stories about Las Vegas Sands hoping to jump-start construction on its stalled Cotai Strip™ (with the help of new equity partners) was this snippet from Sands' president of Asian affairs, Stephen Weaver. Rents at the Marina Bay Sands shopping mall, still under construction in Singapore, are being “pulled down to adjust to the market.”

Lower projected rents? Just one more reason to curb the irrational exuberance with which some Wall Street analysts view this $5.4 billion project.

Under the radar: Remember how Columbia Sussex told the New Jersey Casino Control Commission, in effect, "put it on our tab," when hit with a $750,000 fine? ColSux's original plan was to just have the NJCCC skim the 750 large off the top of whatever it got from selling the Tropicana Atlantic City.

However, the NJCCC informs me that ColSux affiliate Adamar settled up with the state a ways back. Bravo to them. Besides, if Carl Icahn wins the Trop with a credit bid, the casino will change hands but no money will. So much for the windfall everyone was anticipating a year ago.

How desperate is Scott Butera?

Thu, 19 Feb 2009 18:08:00 -0700

Perhaps sensing that the Tropicana Atlantic City is slipping irretrievably from his grasp, Tropicana Entertainment CEO Scott Butera has taken his case to the media -- seeking an audience with the editorial board of The Press of Atlantic City, no less. Butera has a persuasive manner, as you'll hear in the attached audio excerpts. Repositioning the Trop as a smoke-free property seems a bit out there but it has the virtue of novelty, so let's give it the benefit of the doubt. (There is a serious disconnect, though, between what Butera thinks the Trop to be worth and what the market is telling him.)

Butera's real sales job is going to be with the hard-to-convince New Jersey Casino Control Commission, of course ... a task not made any easier when TropEnt sole shareholder William J. Yung III popped up at a New Jersey Supreme Court hearing on the Trop's fate, about as welcome a sight as Banquo's Ghost. Short of drawing and quartering Yung in front of the assembled NJCCC, I'm not sure what Butera can do that will guarantee him a fair hearing.

He might have one ace left to play by throwing his support to Carl Icahn's mooted stalking-horse bid. Even if Icahn doesn't really want the Trop, the mere possibility that he could throw all or most of $1.4 billion in secured debt onto the table should force rival bidder Cordish Co. to either pony up some real money (instead of incessantly haggling) or drop out. Of course, Butera needs Icahn more than Icahn needs him; the old corporate raider could always rustle up Richard Brown and the rest of the old ACEP band and run the Trop himself.

Still no word on whether Colony Capital will be run out of Resorts Atlantic City or not. The NJCCC is playing this close to the vest. From a logical standpoint, Colony's argument that Column Financial can't be allowed to take over because the latter doesn't have a gaming license (and never mind that Colony is three months in arrears on its mortgage) is silly. It's like saying your banker can't repossess your car because he doesn't have a driver's license.

However, the law is something else again and Colony appears to be on firm ground there unless Column can make the case for a state-run trusteeship. Not that such an arrangement worked out entirely well in the case of the Trop.

Trop's agony soon to end?

Wed, 18 Feb 2009 15:59:00 -0700

The bad news is that the New Jersey Casino Control Commission has voted to grant yet another extension on the interminable sale of the Tropicana Atlantic City. The good news that it's merely been pushed out another month, not the three that butterfingered trustee Justice Gary Stein wanted. The NJCCC finally seems to have run out of patience with this comedy of errors and past time, too.

Then again, the prospect of a Carl Icahn purchase concentrates the mind wonderfully. Since it's a credit bid, neither the State of New Jersey or former owner Columbia Sussex will see the payday they've been envisioning. But if Icahn can get his affiliated creditors to put their whole $1.4 billion in secured debt on the table, it'd crush anything Cordish Co. has offered or is likely to. The mere specter of Icahn has to be very bad news for Tropicana Entertainment CEO Scott Butera. Since the Trop is the engine that drives (or drove, before ColSux CEO William J. Yung III crashed it) his company's bottom line, Butera has been tireless in his quest to re-obtain the property. If he succeeded, it would also allow him to return victoriously to the market where he made his name as Trump Entertainment Resorts' boss. But, through no fault of his, TropEnt is in far worse standing in the Garden State than is Icahn.

If Icahn is primed to re-enter the casino industry that he left not so long ago, it's a positive augury both for Atlantic City and the business as a whole. It would also enable him to cock a snook at Pinnacle Entertainment, which purchased the old A.C. Sands from Icahn, quickly demolished it, then has been high and dry ever since. Under Icahn's ownership, the Stratosphere went from being a joke to a successful casino property. His taste in casinos isn't always pretty (Arizona Charlie's, anyone?) but it's proven smart and successful.