David Mckee's Stiffs & Georges - Cosmopolitan

F'bleau: Wait 'til 2012; Satre returns

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 13:33:00 -0700

That's basically the message coming out of bankruptcy court, where Fontainebleau ownership requested permission to scrap all conventions and meetings through October 2011. Among many other disclosures in the fast-moving Chapter 11 was the sacking of seven top executives. (A well-kept secret, seeing as the septet had been let go last May.)

At the top of the list was F'bleau President Audrey Oswell. Since being forced out of Caesars Atlantic City by Park Place Entertainment, Oswell's resumé has taken a pummeling. She left Resorts Atlantic City just as Colony Capital was beginning to mismanage it into insolvency, then leapfrogged to Cosmopolitan (foreclosed) and then from the deck of that sinking ship to F'bleau. If it weren't for bad luck, she'd have no luck at all.

Here's hoping Oswell's next employer has steadier financial underpinnings than her last three. (Question for Resorts A.C. lenders: If you give Colony the boot but leave casino boss Nick Ribis in place, have you really solved the problem?)

Matthews out, Satre in: The much-admired Philip G. Satre has taken over as chairman of IGT, where he will no doubt act as a valued counselor to CEO Patti Hart, vouchsafing an insider's perspective on the casino companies with whom she must deal. Satre's ascent could also make for an interesting turn in the war of words between IGT and Harrah's Entertainment, whose CEO and CFO have made it a pastime to trash-talk the slot giant. Will Gary Loveman be so bold in slamming IGT now that his Harrah's predecessor chairs its board?

Bad timing? Despite the Chinese government's speedy flip-flop on access to Macao, the dynamic duo of MGM Mirage and Pansy Ho are mulling both an IPO on the Hang Seng stock exchange and further expansion in the casino enclave. But is this the moment for such aggressiveness? MGM Grand Macao is only beginning to perform up to expectations and the parent company is having to push a $5.6 billion debt payment into 2015.

Trop, Sands purges continue

Wed, 30 Sep 2009 17:36:00 -0700

It's official: "Pit Bull of Comedy" Bobby Slayton has snarled his last at the Tropicana Las Vegas. Thus endeth a brief, inauspicious reign by Anthony Cools over the Trop's upstairs showroom. A well-placed source advises LVA that Beatles tribute show Penny Lane was pulled after EMI hit it with a cease-and-desist letter. In any event, it left as invisibly as it arrived.

Trop CEO Alex Yemenidjian still has three shows he inherited from predecessor Scott Butera but it's pretty clear that he's going to put his own stamp on the property. As for Cools, well, he'll always have O'Shea's.

Movement at Cosmo. Buried in the Review-Journal (six items deep) is the news that the Cosmopolitan has wooed ~~John~~ Marshall Andrew away from Las Vegas Sands to be its CFO and hired Station Casinos refugee Marshall Andrew as chief information officer. Deutsche Bank looks serious about making that September '10 opening date.

Will the economy have improved sufficiently to have absorbed most of the CityCenter rooms and the Planet Hollywood Westgate ones by then (and maybe, but not very likely, Fontainebleau)? Boyd Gaming is betting otherwise. The Echelon cranes have been seen coming down, marking an additional hiatus in the project, which reportedly will not be resumed until 2012.

Las Vegas Sands: Execs overboard!

Andrew is just the latest exec lured -- or chased -- away from Sheldon Adelson's employ. Former Venetian veep Paul Pusateri (who helped launch Paris-Las Vegas back in the day) was just nominated as president at The Palms and ever-helpful Sands spokeswoman Mindy Eras has gone to Preferred Public Relations. Whether these moves are part of Adelson's promised cost reductions or are a winnowing out of perceived William Weidner loyalists, it must be getting lonely at the top.

There's quite a debate going on at the Las Vegas Sun on the rise and fall of themed resorts on the Strip. Surf over, check it out, maybe weigh in, if the spirit moves you.

Hell no, they won't; Penghu punk'd; Barbarians at the gates (again)

Mon, 28 Sep 2009 19:12:00 -0700

Pay taxes, that is. Two Indiana racinos are pushing back against a tax rate that averages 38%. Considering that the two tracks -- one run by Cordish Gaming -- are the newbies on the Hoosier State scene, one could fairly ask them, "Didn't you know what you were getting into?" As the article notes, neither Harrah's Entertainment and Boyd Gaming -- both which recently heavily reinvested in Indiana -- aren't whining about their tax rates.

But the racinos have a point. In states where the number of casinos is artificially capped by the Legislature, solons become the custodians of the industry's economic future, like it or not. And it only stands to reason that if the market is going be diluted, tax relief is in order. Considering that same-store revenues in Indiana have been nothing but down since the racinos opened, some push-back on the tax front was probably inevitable.

Hell no, they won't either. Allow casinos in Penghu, that is. Voters on the Taiwanese island voted against gambling expansion there, putting the issue off-limits for three years. The notion of planting mega-million-dollar casinos in remote, hard-to-reach parts of Taiwan never made that much sense to S&G, but big industry players like Sheldon Adelson and Gary Loveman have kicked Taiwanese tires in the recent past.

Did Adelson and Steve Wynn mistime their leap into the Hong Kong stock market? One Wall Street Journal columnist thinks so. Bad timing isn't the exclusive province of the public sector, though: A Washington State tribe borrowed $375 million on the strength [sic] of revenue forecasts that proved grossly over-optimistic. Percentage-wise, neither Harrah's nor Station Casinos missed the mark this badly.

Bob Stupak, R.I.P. The penultimate Vegas maverick is gone, having spent much of the last decade as a recluse. One especially thorough obit contains a quote by former Klondike owner John Woodrum that ought to be engraved on Stupak's gravestone (or at the base of that now-vanished Stupak statue): "If ever there was a guy beyond the rim of reality, there was Bob. But somehow he made reality happen."

Just what we don't need. They're baaaaack. Never mind the smoking wreckage they've made of Harrah's and Station, private-equity firms are rooting amidst the flotsam, looking to extend their morbid clamp on the casino industry. Leading the pack is Leon Black's inaptly named Apollo Management. Both indirectly (Planet Hollywood by way of Harrah's) and directly (Cosmopolitan, Fontainebleau), Black is reported to be scarfing up what few independent properties remain, raising the prospect of a Total Rewards oligopoly stretching from just above CityCenter to the southern frontier of the The Mirage.

There are also a few bottom-feeders in play. Hooters hardly seems worth buying unless Onex Corp. wants to do a tear-down and extend the Tropicana Las Vegas eastward. Current ownership of the Riviera is tapped out but the place still has prospects as a fixer-upper (not something that fits with Apollo's sack-and-pillage business model). If non-bottom-feeder Green Valley Ranch is really on the bubble of insolvency, then Penn National Gaming ought to quit chasing F'bleau, and try to drive a wedge betwixt Station and its Greenspun family partners. Penn would stand to inherit a beautiful property with far fewer problems than Big Bleau.

"Viva Elvis"

Wed, 02 Sep 2009 01:38:00 -0700

Obssessed? Moi?

Yes, Viva Elvis will be the long-awaited, enshrouded-in-secrecy title of the Cirque du Soleil show scheduled to debut this December at CityCenter.* Wow, they must have had to really burn the midnight oil in Montreal to come up with that one ... Speaking of name changes, Scarlett and her Seductive Ladies of Magic (at the Riviera) is now Abra-Ca-Sexy. Well, it's catchier ... The wheels continue to fall off the Riviera train: An Evening with Dean and Friends has closed, as has the dinner buffet (again) ... Lost in the bankruptcy tumult at the Greek Isles was the opening of a new show. Its cumbersome title is Chinaman: A Rock & Roll Comedy Experience. Moving right along ... By the time you read this, Rockstar: The Tribute should have reopened at the Harmon Theater after a disastrously short stint at the Wyrick Entertainment Complex (aka, "the Venue of Death") in Planet Hollywood. However, the Harmon has given it as much advance publicity as an IRS raid on a Vegas nightclub, so that's not a promising start ... In like manner, Beatles tribute Penny Lane tiptoed into the Tropicana without so much as a 'by your leave' ... Back at Planet Ho, Tony 'n Tina's Wedding evidently isn't performing up to expectations. Ticket prices have been reduced 13%-30%, although they're still steep ($63-$143) ... It looks like Deutsche Bank is going to wait a spell and open the Cosmopolitan in Sept.-Oct. 2010. Which, given that the Strip's been strangling on a glut of high-end rooms, is probably the wisest course of action. Wall Street's former Holy Grail, "another wave of megaresort openings," has become a phrase to be dreaded.

Ready for some good news? The most remarkable dancer of the late, lamented Sin City Kitties, Koree Kurkowski, is now part of the ensemble of Bite. The show is kitsch to the nth degree but it's entertaining in its own so-bad-it's-good fashion. The Stratosphere casino floor was pretty dead for a Friday night last weekend, but Bite was definitely packing them in. It's not as good as Sin City Bad Girls (at the Las Vegas Hilton) but way better than forgettable X Burlesque (at the Flamingo).

* -- the Viva Elvis revelation was let slip during last weekend's Michael Jackson festival at The Palms. I learned of it after being invited -- on 75 minutes' notice -- to co-host an episode of Steve Friess' The Strip Podcast, in which I am teased for being "obsessed" with Carmen Electra. I'll link to the edited version once it's available, so you can hear me date myself with a Barbi Benton shout-out.

This isn't Photoshop but an ad clipped from a Michigan newspaper, I kid you not:

The things you can find at the grocery store these days ...

Aztar deal the worst ever: it's quantifiable

Tue, 28 Jul 2009 12:39:00 -0700

When he acquired Aztar Corp., back in 2006, Columbia Sussex CEO William J. Yung III also became one of the company's debtors. So what's his $36 million worth today? According to the Wall Street Journal, 100 grand or less. If that weren't enough to make the ColSux/Aztar deal the all-time biggest casino-sector wipeout of the last 15 years, consider that Carl Icahn's "$200 million" credit bid (i.e., no money down) was placed with debt acquired at 27 cents on the dollar. So Icahn has himself a new casino for a tidy $54 million outlay.

In a less-reported development, Icahn also gained a controlling position in Tropicana Entertainment. Without either its Atlantic City or Las Vegas Trops, it'd be a car without an engine, a gaggle of riverboats and motels. Exactly where this leaves CEO Scott Butera and what role he'll play remains an open question. Hopefully, either his or Icahn's first move in Atlantic City will be to replace floundering Trop General Manager Mark Giannantonio (a Yung crony) with someone more up to the job.

Movement at Cosmo: The GM of Caesars Palace, John Unwin, has resigned. He'll become CEO of the stalled Cosmopolitan in October. While it's still unclear under whose aegis the casino will be run, Unwin's hiring is the first concrete move to get some gaming expertise on board since Deutsche Bank seized the property.

Whining in Macao: Those two "integrated resorts" in Singapore haven't even opened yet and won't for another half a year, but Stanley Ho (whose venerable Hotel Lisboa is seen above) already has his panties in a bunch. According to Bloomberg News, the ancient casino oligarch has been wringing his hands about the burdensome, "serious issue" posed by Macao's 39% tax rate.

Boy, Singapore must be a more serious threat than I'd given it credit, if it's got a Communist Party suck-up like Dr. Ho all a-twitter and taking issue with the government. He's still in better shape than his American rivals; the attempt to graft Vegas-style megaresorts onto Macao has left them badly exposed to anemic market conditions. Ho's gambling-centric strategy gives him less cause for worry.

Today Singapore, tomorrow the U.S.? Even while lender's remorse has paralyzed American banks and stalled any hopes of "unbundling" the U.S. casino industry, diversification may be coming from an unlikely corner. Malaysia's Genting Bhd, riding a sustained runup in its stock, has $2 billion in the kitty, is raising more and could pump $7 billion into casino acquisitions.

That isn't to say there aren't a lot of "ifs" and "buts." Still, Genting's fundamentals appear far more sound than those of say, Las Vegas Sands. It's also in a position to deal a serious blow to Sands in Singapore. Not only will its Sentosa Island casino-resort open before Marina Bay Sands, but customers who "subscribe" to a $1,388/year entrance fee to one casino or another must play exclusively at that casino for the year. Once again, Sheldon Adelson's inability to finish a megaresort on schedule threatens to bite him in the butt.

The dream is dying

Mon, 20 Jul 2009 16:07:00 -0700

Just last week, UNLV's historical sage, Dr. Eugene Moehring, was taking a dim view of the fate of Las Vegas' working class. Now comes the Wall Street Journal to back him up with some sobering reportage.

Even at union salaries, Culinary Union-represented employees are hardly living on Easy Street. According to the WSJ's Tamara Audi, a hotel maid can expect to make slightly under $30K/year. She also finds a fry cook who was pulling in $36K annually, before he was laid off. (He's now making much less at union-free M Resort.) This goes to show not only the importance of union representation but also how close many of these people are to the economic precipice.

Many of the causes of our current plight (like real estate speculation) are outside my remit. However, a great deal of the blame falls upon casino CEOs who -- encouraged by banks that pushed too-easy credit like "happy dust" and by cheerleading Wall Street analysts -- succumbed severally and variously to a collective psychosis.

The Plaza: Rooms available, starting the 12th of Never.

The hyper-optimistic mentality that produced a rapid-fire succession of (in no particular order) CityCenter, Cosmopolitan, Fontainebleau, Echelon, Palazzo, Encore, the Hard Rock Hotel acquisition/expansion, and even will o' the wisps like Crown Las Vegas and Viva, rested upon a bizarre assumption. Namely, that the Las Vegas Strip could not only absord literally thousands upon thousands of new rooms (preponderantly at the high end) but could do in a compressed time frame.

A few companies even thought this could be done even after they'd glutted themselves with LBO debt. (True, Harrah's Entertainment now says it never intended to go the metaresort route but the available evidence testifies otherwise.) As I've written before, a bubble was mistaken for a baseline, thereby magnifying the consequences when the economic fundamentals began to crumple.

Distance evidently lends clarity, at least to Harvey Perkins of East Coast-based Spectrum Gaming Group. He calls for a complete rethinking of the luxury-based Vegas business model, repositioning the Strip's posh palaces slightly downmarket. It'll mean eating a lot of pride but what alternatives are there?

It's a glass half-full perspective, which is preferable to the overdose of gloom quaffed by MGM Mirage CEO Jim Murren. He darkly prophesies, "There won't be another property built in Las Vegas for a decade."

Just wait 'til the next economic upturn and see if Murren is still saying kaddish. There will be new casinos in Las Vegas before 2019, I'm fully confident -- but they'll be ones positioned around affordability and (hopefully) generating double-digit ROI. Because, frankly, Las Vegas isn't the investment it used to be.

The St(ump) Regis, as it was to have been.

Then there's the schizoid-sounding Sheldon Adelson, who harrumphs, "I don't see any opportunities for any development in Las Vegas." Emphasis added; the Las Vegas Sands CEO seems to swing from bullish to bearish by the day.) It'd be nice for Sands if Adelson had been vouchsafed this insight before he started work on the St(ump) Regis in the midst of a condo-market meltdown. Now it's big bloody nose right betwixt the eyes of the Venetian and Palazzo.

The polar opposite of Adelson is Culinary Union boss D. Taylor who sounds like a flack for the Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority, so giddy is his optimism. Hey, D., have you talked to your workforce lately -- you know, the ones who just had to defer a $710/year pay bump?

At least some amusement is to be had from the Strip map prepared for the WSJ by Bill Lerner's new outfit, Union Gaming Research:

I don't think I'd take investment advice from a firm that doesn't know the correct spellings of "Echelon" or "Caesars." City Center seems to fallen off the map entirely. It'd also take issue with the classification of many sites (like the in-foreclosure FX Real Estate plot) as "ceased or delayed" as there was never any work to cease or delay at, say Elad Properties' "Plaza" site or Crown Las Vegas (aka "Archon"). Ditto MGM/Kerzner, Africa Israel, etc. However, the Cosmo, which really is in limbo, doesn't make onto the map.

At any rate, as land prices on the Strip continue to return to earth, there's going to be plenty of prospective acreage for the company that's ready, willing and able to build a mid-market casino on the Strip.

By request ...

Wed, 24 Jun 2009 13:40:00 -0700

'Tis another day of hopscotching betwixt the doctor and the dentist, which sure cuts into quality blogging time (as did a nasty attack of fibromyalgia yesterday). However, by reader request, we present this special, (not) exclusive S&G photo of a special plenepotentiary Apollo [Mis]Management representative -- perhaps Leon Black himself ...

... contemplating piling additional money into Fontainebleau.

Serously, overspending -- not lack of business -- is what really got this town into its present pickle. Profligacy and/or dangerous incompetence at the highest levels are the true culprits for the Vegas meltdown. Yet it is people like maids, cocktail servers, security staff and -- by extension -- customers who are literally paying the price for clownery in the executive suites.

F'bleau and Cosmopolitan need to take a page from the Echelon playbook: Say "that's a wrap" and wait 'til the economy improves, attendant litigation is settled and the tsunami of new hotel rooms that is CityCenter has ebbed a bit. We don't need multiple new megaresorts now for the simple fact that the market will not support them.

Then again, if Harrah's Entertainment or Wynn Resorts wants to sail its luxury liner straight into the Big Bleau iceberg (or the Cosmo) ... it's their money. Just don't complain to the press when you can't get triple-digit room rates, 'kay?

Rumble in Macao

Tue, 02 Jun 2009 17:34:00 -0700

Although an oft-promised loosening of visa restrictions by Peking stubborny refuses to materialize, an air of cautious hopefulness has crept back into Macao now that City of Dreams has opened on schedule -- and it looks dazzling. Aggressive revenue projections have literally reversed the fortunes of co-owner James Packer, whose disastrous venture into the U.S. casino industry is now seen by some as a blessing in disguise.

At $2.4 billion, City of Dreams rivals the cost of Venetian Macao and is hoped to equal or surpass the latter's 20% return on investment. One projection has it leapfrogging Wynn Macau into third place, with 20% of the Macanese market.

It also represents a double-edged sword for Sheldon Adelson's mammoth casino-resort. If it draws more punters to the Cotai Strip™, good. If it dilutes Adelson's customer base, not so good, obviously. In comments to the Wall Street Journal, Adelson seemed at pains to temper some headstrong pronouncements he'd offered to Steve Friess. As expected, an Adelson without the restraining influences of William Weidner and Brad Stone, is a pedal-to-the-metal Sheldon, saying Las Vegas Sands should have gone faster, faster, faster with its Cotai Strip™ projects, not slower. (The mind reels.)

"I just came back from Macau and we have five or six different options that we can pursue, each one of which would solve our liquidity problems," the Venetian's doge proclaimed ... which doesn't sound a lot different from what he's been saying for months. That is, until he contradicted himself by buying up a truckload of LVS stock -- something he wouldn't have done were a major deal in the offing.

Adelson predicts all his suspended Macao projects will be back in gear by year's end. He's on the curve in one respect, suggesting that his aborted St. Regis condo-hotel on the Strip could be revived by Sands' acting as lender to prospective unit buyers. Palms Place just started doing that very thing.

Sheldon's Commissariat for Optimism never closes, so one tends to grow skeptical of each new variant of "Victory is mine!" Anyway, Adelson was just off the plane from China, so perhaps jet-lag accounts for this reality-challenged assertion: "Our numbers have been going up and the [Macau peninsula] have been going down."

'Fraid not. Scarcely had that Adelsonian utterance made print than Lusa reported May's revenue numbers. If April had seen Wynn Macau falling back toward the pack, with 13% of market share, it returned with a vengeance in May. Steve Wynn's 18% market share -- with far less capacity than Adelson -- put him only three points behind LV Sands and came at the latter's expense. Stanley Ho still leads everybody with 30% -- as much as Galaxy Entertainment, Melco Crown Entertainment and MGM Grand Macau combined.

A few days earlier came news that visitation from Mainland China to Macao had been -43% in April ... hardly propitious conditions for flooring the Cotai Strip™ gas pedal. Ditto a 10% drop in May gambling revenues. Until that much-mooted visa liberalization actually happens, going apeshit with casino-hotel construction makes no sense whatsoever.

Nor did Adelson do his public image any favors with a gratuitous slam against jilted sidekick Weidner. (The latter, given the opportunity to respond, took the high road.) This 'hit 'em when they're down' move will accrue exactly zero sympathy for Adelson -- and it might have some nasty repercussions should it hamper Weidner's attempts to find another job. Then again, he's as rich as Croesus, so he can probably spend the next few decades on the golf course, should he so desire.

There's been no additional movement on the rumored Genting Berhad offer for MGM Grand Macau. However, even in a $13.8 billion/year casino market, the numbers don't look great for MGM. After it splits its 8% market share with partner Pansy Ho, it would have $55 million from which to pay an onerous tax bill, plus operating expenses. (The ROI must be dismal.)

Borgata, in Atlantic City, does $55 million a month -- in a bad month -- and MGM basically cashes a check from Boyd Gaming. So if MGM elects to stay in Macao and vacate Atlantic City, it won't be because the Chinese enclave is contributing more to the bottom line. Who ever thought MGM Grand Macau would function as a glorified "loss leader"?

Steve Wynn has a dragon ... and now Lawrence Ho does, too.

Back home, MGM is going downmarket at The Mirage. And they didn't even have to sell the place to Penn National in order to get there.

Strangely enough ... Penn's recent expression of interest in both Planet Hollywood and Station Casinos passed with scarcely a murmur of comment locally. You'd think that a well-capitalized company like Penn's hanging of a target on Robert Earl's or Frank Fertitta III's back would make headlines -- or maybe Vegas journos have tired of Penn's endless feints and tuned the company out. Well, almost all of them, anyway.

Planet Hollywood, at least, is acting far more aggressively than one would expect from a property that is contemplating a sale. So perhaps Earl is more pursued than pursuer. However, his conversion of Desert(ed) Passage into Miracle Mile appears to have run out of steam -- or money -- at the halfway point. Try as he might, Earl is never going to completely de-Aladdin-ize that place. A magic lantern and three wishes would come in real handy down there.

Also flying under the radar was former Planet Ho boss Michael Mecca's enlistment with Galaxy. Mecca jumped -- or, more likely, was pushed -- from the Planet right when the Omar Siddiqui scandal was at its height. Informed speculation had it that Mecca was thisclose to being tapped to head up James Packer's projected North American gambling empire. Crown Ltd. CEO Rowen Craigie was noncomittal, though, and Crown's big Cannery Casino Resorts acquisition fell through soon thereafter, leaving Mecca hanging.

Success being the best revenge, Mecca not only landed a prestigious new gig -- it's with one of Packer's direct rivals in Macao. Mecca shoots, he scores!

Which brings us full circle to Macao. That worked out tidily, didn't it?

The MGM/Pansy Ho verdict: It's in and it's bad

Tue, 19 May 2009 11:15:00 -0700

After nearly four years of investigation, the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement has released its long-awaited "suitability" findings on MGM Mirage joint-venture partner Pansy Ho. As MGM itself reported to the SEC yesterday, "While the report itself is confidential, at the conclusion of the report, the DGE recommended, among other things, that: (i) the Company’s Macau joint venture partner be found to be unsuitable; (ii) the Company be directed to disengage itself from any business association with its Macau joint venture partner; (iii) the Company’s due diligence/compliance efforts be found to be deficient; and (iv) the New Jersey Commission hold a hearing to address the report."

The grinning ghost of MGM Grand Macau

While the reason for the DGE's disapproval isn't given, it's also not difficult to guess. When someone with the sleazy reputation of Stanley Ho has an interest in your casino -- by dint of loans to two of his daughters -- a jurisdiction that takes probity as seriously as New Jersey is unlikely to give its benediction.

Slightly further down in its SEC bulletin, MGM offers one of the most Pollyanna-ish statements of recent memory: "The Company does not believe that the report will have a material adverse effect on it."

Let's back up a second. The matter of Ms. Ho now goes to the New Jersey Casino Control Commission for adjudication. The NJCCC is not obligated to act on the DGE's findings. However, the last time it exercised such discretion, it was to override the DGE's recommended probation for Columbia Sussex in favor of kicking ColSux out of the Garden State forthwith.

So the likelihood is that MGM will be faced with a choice between liquidating its New Jersey holdings or its Macao ones. The latter include a 50% stake in Borgata (and Boyd Gaming can afford to buy its partner out), plus some undeveloped land, which will be a much tougher sell.

As for MGM Grand Macau, it would revert to the Ho family. MGM could still, in all probability, count on an ongoing stream of revenue by leasing out the brand name or even by negotiating a management contract for itself (although management is rumored to have been the casino's Achilles heel).

Unless the NJCCC grants clemency (in which case, MGM loses face but nothing more, as one analyst puts it), "material adverse effect" is inevitable. But there may be a silver lining for CEO Jim Murren. He was able to get debt-covenant violations waived in return for an accelerated repayment of the company's whopping debt load. The diñero from a Borgata or MGM Grand Macau sale would come in mighty handy as the company tries to de-leverage itself.

Walking (out) in Memphis. A 21-year veteran of the Harrah's Entertainment hierarchy resigned last week, another casualty of the company's downsizing.

And then there were 135. It used to be the execs jumping from the sinking Cosmopolitan ship reached for a lifeline from Fontainebleau. Now they'll be looking for another rescue vessel. (Hey, the Tropicana may be hiring soon.) A F'bleau spokesman says negotiations with Deutsche Bank are continuing, in a notable ratcheting-down of the bellicose rhetoric that's been lobbed to and from F'bleau of late.

Heard last night as part of an act at Sin City Comedy, re the Vegas Trop: "A $20 bill and all my teeth -- I'm a whale!" Conclusion: Alex Yemenidjian cannot arrive soon enough.

F'blown?

Wed, 13 May 2009 18:46:00 -0700

Ownership at Fontainebleau is alleging heinous doings by Deutsche Bank to subvert F'bleau (which gives every indication of being destined to fail without external assistance). Supposedly, Deutsche Bank was confabulating with a consortium of 10 other banks to shove F'bleau under the bus, in order to improve the chances of The Cosmopolitan. Deutsche Bank is the default owner of the Cosmo, developer Ian Bruce Eichner having proven illiquid.

Now, I love a good conspiracy theory as much or more than the next man but, absent hard evidence, I'm finding F'bleau's allegations a tad lurid even for my taste. Besides, Deutsche Bank's share of the $770 million in funding that got yanked out from under F'bleau -- a deplorable move, but for other reasons, IMO -- is only $80 million. That's chump change compared to the $3.9 billion Cosmo albatross around the bank's neck.

In the immortal words of Dr. Daniel Jackson, "Anyway, I'm sorry, but that just happens to be how I feel about it. What do you think?"

Ya think? Here's one for the "No shit, Sherlock" file. Enjoy.

Casino apocalypse

Thu, 19 Mar 2009 13:08:00 -0700

I'm deeply imbedded in other projects today. In the meantime, by way of In Business Las Vegas and GamingFloor.com (source of yesterday's Harrah's Entertainment time warp, too) here's the answer to the question, "How many casino failures can you pack into nine minutes?" Watch it and weep.

In defense of Reid's largesse; Cosmo craziness

Fri, 20 Feb 2009 18:38:00 -0700

My take on Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) and his "casino bailout," as one reader has described it, drew the following response from MGM Mirage spokesman Alan Feldman, which is reprinted below with his kind permission. I note only that my objection has to do with the principle of the Reid-sponsored deferral -- which I called "skanky" -- and not whatever dollar savings are realized thereby.

By the way, saw your well-written piece slamming Harry Reid for his support of the tax deferral portion of the Stimulus bill. I must respectfully disagree with the opinion you presented. This is a tax deferral, not a give-away. And it is only possible if we purchase our debt at reduced prices because of the collapse in the markets. Besides, the fact is that the amount of these tax deferrals is relatively small taken in context. By way of example, we are in the midst of a $9 billion investment in CityCenter and the entire benefit of the deferred taxes ... is only several million dollars. We will use this cash flow benefit this year to further invest in the project and, once open, pay the deferred taxes from the cash flow the project generates.

In any event, we will pay several tens of millions in Federal taxes this year, far more than the amount this benefit defers.

There may well have been some things to complain about in the Stimulus bill. I simply don’t think this was one of them.

P.S.: In case anybody didn't see it, there's a crazy-sounding item that made Debtwire this week, saying that Deutsche Bank was poised to hand the Cosmopolitan over to MGM Mirage, along with a loan of $1.2 billion to finish CityCenter. There seems to be general agreement that this is about as far-fetched a scenario as they get, but I also hear that something like it is the only way Deutsche Bank is going to be shot of that white elephant. If the bank were to, in essence, pay someone to take the $2.8 billion Cosmo off its hands, it would be an act of desperation the scale of which we've never seen.

The prodigal son

Mon, 19 Jan 2009 18:03:00 -0700

Poor Kerry Packer; the late Australian mogul and famous high roller must be doing all his rolling in the grave now. Reputed for being daring at baccarat and cautious in business, the media baron is at least spared the indignity of seeing son James Packer blow through his patrimony at a record pace.

Going is the $33 million yacht; on hold is the $40 million corporate jet. Even work on the $2.5 million backyard swimming pool has been suspended. (Don't you hate it when that happens?) At least the pin placements on Packer's Greg Norman-designed golf course are still "changed every day at massive expense," reports Rupert Murdoch's News.com.au.

More seriously, Packer is reported to be suffering from depression, though other media reports dispute this. Given the debilitating, even paralyzing nature of the disease (something for which I can vouch firsthand), it puts a potentially very different cast upon Packer's December no-show for a Nevada Gaming Control Board hearing.

When Packer did turn up, Chairman Dennis Neilander admitted to being somewhat foxed by Packer's acquisition of Cannery Casino Resorts (for $1.8 billion). "You and me both," I thought. As Packer seemingly played Pin the Tail on the Donkey, buying not only Cannery but positions in Fontainebleau, Station Casinos, Harrah's Entertainment and the flaccid Crown Las Vegas 'failsino'-tower, I tried to convince myself that an overarching strategy was at work. In retrospect -- especially after the writedown of the Station and Harrah's investments -- what we were witnessing was James Packer, Shopaholic. (How did he manage to miss out on the Cosmopolitan?) One begins to see why Steve Wynn steered clear of Packer, back when the talk of a Wynn-Packer joint venture was the buzz du jour on the Strip.

Even the Crown Macau cash spigot has been sputtering, although Melco Crown CEO Lawrence Ho keeps insisting that Chinese access to Macao will improve in time for the City of Dreams opening. (Either he's whistling past the graveyard or he knows something for which others would pay a very great number of patacas.) Market share is down at Crown Macau and the Macanese government is predicting a serious diminution of gaming revenue for for the overall market in 2009, placing it somewhere near $10.7 billion.

Plus, the ripple effect doesn't stop there. Aristocrat Leisure, which could really stand to have some good news, had been hoping for a fivefold increase in its installed slot base in Macao over the next two years. Not only is that unlikely, operators are trimming their existing slot inventory.

Underscoring their pessimism regarding reduced visa restrictions, Macanese tourism officials are turning their gaze at least partly away from China. Among the newly coveted markets are Singapore's presumed feeder markets -- India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and even Australia and New Zealand -- to say nothing of Singapore itself. It's long been presumed that Singapore's got a tough row to hoe when its casino megaresorts come on line and it just keeps getting tougher.

A house divided

Wed, 07 Jan 2009 11:54:00 -0700

Give credit where it's due to the Las Vegas Review-Journal for today's interesting revelation that Columbia Sussex had been running the Las Vegas Tropicana with rival GMs overseeing the casino and hotel operations, respectively. This appears to confirm rumors I'd heard that ColSux likes to 'silo' the gambling and lodging aspects of its casino-hotels into separate profit centers which compete against each other instead of operating symbiotically.

With corporate thinking like that, it's no wonder that even Global Gaming Business Editor Roger Gros said, at G2E, that ColSux "didn't understand the [casino] industry." A newspaper interview with Casino Aztar interim skipper Tom Dingman details the decimation that took place there on ColSux's watch. Given how rundown the Casino Aztar infrastructure was when Dingman arrived, his ability to turn around business there is all the more impressive. Whoever succeeds Dingman shouldn't tinker with his business model, as it's proven to be an indisputable success.

Further down in the same assemblage of news briefs is the announcement of Brooke Dunn's New Years Eve resignation from Shuffle Master. The former Shuffle Master senior VP has been under a cloud ever since the SEC recommended civil prosecution against him for allegedly passing privileged information to an unrelated third party. Dunn's resignation was sadly inevitable, as he can neither fuufill his job responsibilities nor be entrusted with sensitive information as long as the SEC's accusations hang over his head.

Also out the door is the Ameristar Casinos Chief Accounting Officer Thomas Malone "who has resigned to pursue other opportunities," such as the opportunity of not having the doorknob hit you in the butt. Former Progressive Gaming CFO Heather Rollo replaces Malone. Given the performance of its casinos despite the recession, Ameristar has been unaccountably jittery of late, with Malone's abrupt departure being merely the latest tremor.

Update: Yet another executive who is choosing to "pursue other interests," like updating his resumé, is Tropicana Entertainment CFO Robert Kocienski. After a brief tenure in the job, he's been shown the door in favor of ex-Shuffle Master CFO Richard Baldwin, a long-tenured slot industry executive. Combine this with the hiring of Ron Thacker to run the LV Trop and it's one ex-Cosmopolitan executive in, one out. So I guess they can put that big Cosmo Class of '08 reunion on hold.

Plaza officially in trouble (or not)

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 12:18:00 -0700

It wasn't good news when El Ad Properties asked its bankers for a second extension on a $625 million purchase loan for what used to be the New Frontier. Now (by way of TheMarker, Reuters and Howard Stutz) comes a report* El Ad is seeking money from Sheldon Adelson. If you really are rattling your tin cup in Adelson's direction -- he who just diluted his ownership stake in Las Vegas Sands and stopped its leaks with $1 billion of his own capital -- then you are desperate indeed. For the record, El Ad's partner, IDB Development, says talks with Adelson are neither being considered nor on the agenda.

*Update: Reuters has all parties involved denying everything, so this is looking like one of those news reports that's more entertaining than true. At the very least, it provides clarity as to how this rumor got started.

It's not clear what to make of the appointment of Ron Thacker as president of the Las Vegas Tropicana. The reconstituted Tropicana Entertainment is starting to looking like a reunion of the old Cosmopolitan gang, as CEO Scott Butera leapt from that sinking ship, as did TropEnt CFO Robert Kocienski. On the other hand, Thacker made the trip from the Cosmo to the Trop via an interval spent as VP of casino operations for Fontainebleau Resorts "where he was responsible for casino design, development, systems implementation and general casino operations" for a casino that hasn't been finished, let alone opened. So is Thacker going through a rough patch in his career or is his departure an ominous portent for the Vegas Fontainebleau?

Happy New Year

Fri, 02 Jan 2009 18:14:00 -0700

Will it be a happy new year for the Strip? In terms of "supply shock," the timing could be a lot better, let's put it that way. Back on Aug. 14, JP Morgan issued an analyst report which showed 11,412 hotel rooms and 7,546 condos hitting the Las Vegas Valley in 2009. Aliante Station and Encore (an aggregate 2,235 rooms) relieved some of the pressure by opening sooner than Morgan analysts anticipated. But that still leaves a lot of product in the pipeline, headed right at us.

Persistent rumors have MGM Mirage's The Harmon, part of CityCenter, paralyzed by construction problems and perhaps deserted by operator Light Group. Even if that proves to be both true and a blessing in disguise, we're only talking 400 units. Seriously, we could stand to have a few more big projects (Cosmopolitan, anyone?) fall behind schedule.

After all, 2010 was to have been an absorption year, with only the St. Regis condo tower (300 units) at Palazzo slated to open. Now that's on indefinite hold, so the deck is clear for developers who'd like to push their opening date back. Any takers?

21

Wed, 31 Dec 2008 11:39:00 -0700

That's the number of predictions for 2009 issued by Spectrum Gaming Group, an Atlantic City-based outfit. They are, in no particular order:

• Advancements in technology that impact revenues and cut costs will continue to be attractive to operators even in an economic downturn.

Continued ...

• ... conversion of racetracks to racinos, as well as non-gaming expansions to existing racinos.

• ... elimination of jobs, both through cuts and attrition.

• ... moratorium on development of big-box gaming resorts due to economic downturn.

• Convenience-based gaming continues to achieve better year-over-year results than destination-based gaming.

• Corporate and property debt restructuring in wake of declining revenues.

• Eastern European countries will increase their efforts to meet EU regulations, including smoking bans.

• Gaming companies increase efforts to export their brands globally.

• Gaming equipment manufacturers continue to invest in games that appeal to a younger demographic, including lotteries, bingo and server-based technology.

• Increased legislative acceptance of allowing the deduction of issued electronic promotional gaming credits from the gross revenue tax/fee calculation.

• Increased use of electronic games, including the emergence of scalable electronic table games in which players at different locations on the floor wager on a single outcome.

• Increasing alliances between commercial gaming operators and outside investors, as well as between commercial and tribal operators.

• Internet gambling in U.S. will be a hot federal issue for the new administration and Congress; gaming companies will fund lobbying efforts on both sides.

• Major gaming operators commence deleveraging by selling off properties to emerging operators.

• More pronounced shift in market share among suppliers as operators attempt to shift away from IGT participation games.

• Native American tribal gaming revenue estimates remain on track to surpass U.S. commercial gaming totals.

• Prices for hotel rooms, shows and food and beverage will return to lower levels at large gaming resorts as operators need to fill their properties.

• Slow but continual advancement toward server-based gaming, as operators remain skeptical as to the potential financial returns on investment.

• States consider expanding or legalizing casino-style gaming to help fill state budget gaps.

• Support from China to ease visa restrictions, increasing flow of visitors into Macau.

• Uncertainty in various European countries concerning regulation, thus increasing cases being referred to the European Court of Justice.

We'll have to check back in a year, God willing, and see how clear Spectrum's crystal ball proved to be. There's nothing on that list that strikes me as off the beam and much of its seems dead on target. The only "WTF?" comes courtesy of a Spectrum exec who told a reporter, "In times like this, it's not like these are company-specific problems that can be attributed to some glaringly bad decision by the company."

I respectfully beg to differ. Choosing unreliable and/or overcommitted business partners (Boyd Gaming) was a decision. Opening in far-flung markets while your core properties were losing market share (Isle of Capri) was a decision. Taking on preposterous amounts of debt (Harrah's Entertainment) or simply assuming more debt than your cash flow and lavish spending tendencies can support (Station Casinos) were decisions. Trying to build metaresorts all at once (Boyd, MGM Mirage) was a decision. Rashly demolishing the Atlantic City Sands and thereby leaving yourself with empty, non-revenue-producing land (Pinnacle Entertainment), that's a decision.

Launching major projects that aren't fully capitalized (Las Vegas Sands, Cosmopolitan, Majestic Star) is a decision. Stubbdornly jeopardizing the license of the property that generates 40% of your cash flow (Columbia Sussex) is a decision. Making not one, but two major acquisitions at a time when your cash cow -- slot routes -- is giving less milk and then overpaying for some of the new assets (Herbst Gaming) is a decision.

Opening a $2.3 billion, years-in-the-making megaresort at the nadir-to-date of the economy (Wynn Las Vegas)? Now that, that was not a decision. That's playing the hand you were dealt.

Case Bets: Stanley Ho in Vegas?, HRH grows but Morgans shrinks

Thu, 11 Dec 2008 13:47:00 -0700

A local columnist raises the spectre of Stanley Ho getting back-door access into Las Vegas via James Packer's acquisition of Cannery Resorts. This isn't the first time I've heard this question raised and, call me complacent, but I believe it stems from confusion. Namely, a conflation of Crown Ltd., the umbrella under which Packer's U.S. casino investments are huddled, and Melco Crown Entertainment, his joint venture with Lawrence Ho, son of dear old Stan.

While the Packer and Ho heirs do business together in Macao (and belatedly tried to get into Singapore), there hasn't been a whiff of Lawrence Ho being involved in Packer's U.S. ventures. (Obviously, because we're talking about discrete companies here.) Concern about Stanley Ho getting his mitts into Cannery are not only a stretch, but far more of one than the worries that were aired when MGM Mirage built a casino in Macao that was half-financed with money borrowed -- by Pansy Ho -- from the ancient casino vizier.

Doom, gloom in context. While the headlines are full of apocalyptic pronouncements on the subject of October's Nevada casino revenue decline, note where it says these numbers are the lowest "since April 2005." That was when the Las Vegas economy was on an upward trend that would make "bargain" and "Strip" virtually oxymoronic. So 2005's good numbers become 2008's panic-inducers ... of course, Las Vegas' ability to sustain its ensuing merge-n-splurge spree (and the ensuing Excedrin headache of ebt) on 2005-level revenues is a whole 'nother story.

April '05 would postdate the point in our economy where Americans started saving money at a negative rate and living off credit. At the time (i.e., March of that year), then-Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Ben Bernanke said, as recounted in the Dec. 1, 2008 issue of The New Yorker, "the main source of imbalance in the global economy was not excess spending at home but, rather, excess saving in China ... "

Darn those party-pooping Chinese! Everything would be just ducky if it weren't for them! But seriously, folks ...

Hindsight being 20/20, this was probably the point where the casino industry ought to have recognized that the U.S. economy (goaded by three-plus years of easy-money policies at the Federal Reserve) was on an unsustainable course and started curbing its growth projections -- and development plans. Instead, it stomped on the gas pedal and we got (in no particular order) leveraged buyouts of Station Casinos and Harrah's Entertainment, crazy land inflation on the Strip -- peaking at over $40 million/acre, CityCenter, Echelon, Palazzo, Viva, umpteen failed or undersold condo projects, bankruptcy at Tropicana Entertainment and the Cosmopolitan, potential bankruptcy at Herbst Gaming and Isle of Capri, and now a loud screeching sound as the brakes are belatedly applied.

Morgans' Faustian pact. What doth it profit Morgans Hotel Group to acquire the Hard Rock Hotel & Casino only to sell it back to the bank in little bits and pieces? Morgans' stake in the exponentially expanding HRH barely exceeds 14% and is on track to get smaller still. Some of us thought from the start that Morgans had bitten more than it could chew. Or, to look at it another way, what a long, strange trip Morgans has taken to wind up with a glorified management contract.

Chrysler cars getting worse? Yup, it looks like another triumph for private equity buyouts.

G2E scuttlebutt

Mon, 24 Nov 2008 15:56:00 -0700

Could Herbst Gaming President Ferenc Szony be headed to the Cosmopolitan? That was one of the rumors bruited about at G2E last week. It would make sense. Szony, one of S&G's favorite gaming executives, is no stranger to operating in difficult markets. Right now he's got the unenviable task of pulling the Herbst Gaming jalopy out of the deep ditch into which the Herbst brothers piled it.

Also, the Cosmo still has no gambling expertise on board, a glaring omission for a casino-based property that's already got more than a couple of strikes against it. In Reno, Szony's had to keep the Sands Regent afloat in an out-of-the-corridor location and a declining market ... and by all accounts, he's succeeded. He's got the right stuff, casino-wise, and should have been running a Strip property years ago. If the Szony-to-Cosmo rumor isn't true, it should be.

Fontaine-blown? While over at the Convention Center, I heard a dire forecast regarding the future of Fontainebleau Las Vegas. Namely, its splendid isolation, surrounded by various 'failsinos' like Crown Las Vegas and Echelon, may result in very attenuated business. One greatly hopes otherwise, but don't discount the James Packer Factor: The Aussie heir has displayed a reverse Midas Touch of late and he's a key Fontainebleau investor.

Not a Harrah's property.

The 11% Solution. More grim news from G2E -- Harrah's Entertainment is contemplating cutting its maintenance budget by as much as 89%. Considering the disgustingly filthy condition of the Harrah's Las Vegas parking garage last Thursday night, I believe it. That place looked like it hadn't been swept up in weeks, if not months (though the casino itself was quite spic-n-span). The hobo encampment near LVA HQ is quite tidy and well-policed by comparison.

So Frank P. in Negaunee, if you're reading this ... beware!