David Mckee's Stiffs & Georges - Melco Crown Entertainment

Macao giveth, Macao taketh away

Tue, 13 Oct 2009 17:41:00 -0700

Casino operators in Macao better make the most of the recent relaxation of visa quotas into the enclave. What the government gives with one hand, it partly reclaims with the other. Casino expansion remains out of the question and the minimum age for gambling would go up to 21, from 18, under a bill draft soon to be put forward. (Steve Wynn can afford to be sanguine, as it's far more likely to impact his mass-market-oriented competitors. Investors didn't share his enthusiasm.)

If Wynn -- who continues to toe the Peking party line -- comes out a winner, facing negligible "obstacables," Lawrence Ho is the presumptive loser. As best S&G can ascertain, the curtailment of gambling in residential areas is aimed at his Mocha slot routes, one of the younger Ho's bread-and-butter enterprises.

Another proposal awaiting action by the Macanese Lege would cap table-game inventory. Writes J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff, "we believe the Macau government believes the timing is right to implement these initiatives given the completion of the commission cap rule and the resumption of growth in the industry ... if the number of tables will be limited to 1,000 per operator, [Las Vegas Sands] may need to modify its future expansion plans, as it is already over the limit, while SJM will need to close down some of the older tables operated by the third parties, as it too is already over the limit."

None of this appears to bode especially well for Sands' long-in-coming IPO, although it remains to be seen whether this is a bonafide legislative agenda or simply a warning to inhibit growth. The news, however, managed to cast a pall over Sheldon Adelson's planned resumption of his Cotai Strip™. Also, it's not as though the Macanese government and its casino-owning subjects don't have to worry about an upsurge in gambling back on the Mainland.

Detroit, briefly. The depression continues to eat into Detroit's casino revenues, -2% last month. Despite a -6.5% drop, MGM Grand Detroit remains the big cat, grossing $42 million. Second place is up for grabs, though, as MotorCity continues to fall back (-7%) toward upstart Greektown (+12%), which is closing the gap, grossing $28.5 million against $33.5 million for MotorCity.

What's a Trump casino worth?

Thu, 08 Oct 2009 15:07:00 -0700

Only $14 million in cash (plus a $100 million equity infusion), according to The Donald. Bondholders say, we'll see your $115 million and raise you $100 million. The latter would recoup at least some -- but not very much -- of their $1.25 billion debt under their plan, while Das Trump would send them away virtually empty-handed. (Moral: When Donald Trump asks you for a loan, take a page from Nancy Reagan and Just Say No.)

The bondholders' assignment of a $75 million valuation to Trump Marina seems awfully optimistic for what is, in essence, a corpse that can't be sold. In essence, the real value proposition is resurgent Trump Taj Mahal, with the other two casinos scarcely better than throw-ins. The Marina is, if anything, an albatross around the company's neck. Still, given that CEO Mark Juliano is going to exceptional lengths to champion the Trumpster's bid, which is a big "screw you" to the debtholders, here's hoping Judge Judith H. Wizmur holds firm for a more responsible solution.

Ho: No! "I don't see major resorts opening for the next couple of years now," says Lawrence Ho. thereby raining pessimism on the expansion plans of Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts and Galaxy Entertainment. The younger Ho also speculates upon the Chinese government's motivation for throttling, then somewhat relenting upon travel to Macao. Interesting tidbit: Marketwatch.com reports that "Venetian Sands" [sic] has cut its number of table games by 25%.

Nevada revenues in. And yeah, they suck. They're much less sucky than usual (-9%), showing an upward trend in baccarat plus two locals-oriented bright spots in the form of Aliante Station and M Resort. It's unclear, though, how much of the growth generated by the last two is new business vs. redistribution of dollars from elsewhere in the valley. The Sun's analysis is far more informative than that found in the R-J.

Wait 'til next year. That's the timeline for casinos in Massachusetts. Even though western Mass looks like slim pickings, lawmakers will probably have to put a casino there just to get the bill onto the floor.

Penn bid falls. Lenders to bankrupt Fontainebleau won a small victory or two, as the judge overseeing the case seems determined to keep lead developer Jeffrey Soffer as far from the disposition of F'bleau as possible. (Soffer is both a debtor and creditor on the project.)

F'bleau, for its part, revealed that Penn National Gaming's offer is now "substantially less" than $300 million, but would include money to replace the windows that are reportedly falling off the building. (One more reason not to build a Strip megaresort tower flush against the "pedestrian realm.")

Groundbreaking today for the long-awaited SugarHouse casino in Philadelphia, under the shadow of a stick-it-to-SugarHouse tax that's been proposed in the Lege. Table games, meanwhile, might be off the table in the face of a $200 million lawsuit. You see, non-racino casinos are allowed to have 5,000 slots (in return for a $50 million fee). Small "resort" casinos -- known as "Category 3" -- only have to $5 million and get 500 slots (accessible only to guests). That's proportional, obviously, and seems fair.

However ... lawmakers want to tilt the playing field by giving Category 3 casinos 30% as many slots as, say, Rivers Casino or SugarHouse, instead of 10% ... and open those games to the general public, not just guests. Of course, the state can't go to the one existing Category 3 casino and ask for another $10 million -- can it? Casino operators are also solidly behind the GOP position on table games: $10 million upfront plus a 12% tax. But, unless House Dems completely capitulate, the gaming bosses are unlikely to get what they want, at least where the tax rate is concerned.

Penn whiffs again. Although Penn Nat'l was supposed to be a bidder in the bankruptcy auction for the Lone Star Park racino, it evidently didn't get into the action and the track went to the Chickasaw Nation for $27 million. (A lot less than Harrah's Entertainment paid to get into Ohio.)

Which means that if/when gambling is legitimized in Texas, the Chickasaws will have a double advantage (parimutuel + tribal status), while Penn will be looking at yet another missed opportunity. Penn's corporate strategy is a baffling alternation of rashness and hyper-caution.

In other tribal news, much-criticized National Indian Gaming Commission Chairman Phil Hogen is gone, thank God, and with him his new, more-restrictive Class II rules. Hogen was justly pilloried for attempting a rollback of hard-won gains in what games tribes could offer. His new rules reflected Bush administration paternalism toward tribes and while they're officially postponed for a year, I think it's safe to say they're dead.* No wonder Rep. Dan Boren (D-OK) is smiling. Watch out for that doorknob, Mister (Ex-)Chairman.

(* It's probable the same thing would have happened under a President McCain, as either candidate would have brought a more enlightened attitude to D.C.-tribal relationships.)

Supporters of video gambling are starting to push back in Illinois, at least in rural, conservative McHenry County. So far it's been the urban areas where this expansion of gambling hasn't been gaining traction.

A repeal of UIGEA continues to gain ground in the House of Representatives, even if it got pulled off the floor in the Senate. (Thanks for nothing, Harry Reid.) The money quote, literally, is a reference to an amendment Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA) which would would specify that "corporate taxes owed on regulated Internet gambling activities are collected, as they currently are from the land-based casino industry." [emphasis added]

If that means what it implies, it would remove the spectre of industry-wide federal gambling taxation from the discussion and leave taxation to the states. If not, then the nose of the federal casino-tax camel is still sticking through the legislative tent. And you know where that leads.

We've seen a nationwide gaming tax get shot down during the Clinton administration but there are desperate times, obviously. Republicans like Mike Huckabee and Rep. Steve King (R-IA) have been looking to sock it to casinos at the federal level for some years now, so I fear it could have bipartisan support, should such a debate come to pass.

It's playoff time. A tired, flat-footed Minnesota Twins squad looked positively dreaful last night, flailing at outside pitches from C.C. Sabathia (if you couldn't reach that slider in the first inning, your arms aren't going to be any longer in the seventh, son). Cliff Lee made short work of the Colorado Rockies (besides, Jim Tracy can't win in the postseason), the St. Louis Cardinals look set to continue their tradition of postseason underperformance and my Anaheim Angels are forever reduced to a quivering heap of Jello in playoff games against the Boston Red Sox. Why am I having visions of brooms?

Macao's blockbuster month

Fri, 02 Oct 2009 18:23:00 -0700

A flurry of good news to end the week, starting in Macao:

September, the first month affected by a relaxation of severe visa restrictions imposed on the mainland, saw a 53% jump in Macanese gambling revenues. In terms of market share, Stanley Ho opened a big lead on Sheldon Adelson, 30% to 20%, with Melco Crown Entertainment close behind with 16%. The remainder of the market was divvied between Wynn Resorts (14%), MGM Mirage (10%) and Galaxy Entertainment (8%).

Is Melco's City of Dreams (above) eating into nearby Venetian Macao's business? On the surface, it certainly looks plausible. Given the immensity of the facilities he's building on the Cotai Strip™, Adelson ought to be getting more bang for his pataca.

Vegas hearts gays. Earlier today, I was asked to reflect on my nearly 11 years in Las Vegas. It's been full of surprising twists of fate -- who ever thought Steve Wynn would be forced out of the Mirage brand he'd created, just for starters?

But I sure as heck never imagined I'd open my e-mail box at work and find the following casino promotions, all keyed to National Coming Out Day (Oct. 3):

"Two Queens Beat a Straight" (New York-New York)

... or the slightly more innocuous ...

"COME OUT and Celebrate at Luxor"

(Luxor was smart and didn't offer Criss F. Angel tickets as part of the, uh, package)

In the Vegas of even a few years ago, "Boys' Night Out Package at Excalibur" would have had more of a frat-party connotation. MGM Grand plays it safe with a "His or Her Getaway" which sounds like a generic singles-oriented deal. Even so, we're actually seeing progress from the days when Vegas marketed itself as a synonym for a very debauched and jaundiced vision of male heterosexuality.

There's nothing like a depression to make this a party town of equal-opportunity decadence. After all, LGBT dollars spend just as fast as straight ones.

$545 a night. That's what Mandarin Oriental is asking. If you read the fine print, you'll note that (through March 31), if you buy a room night at that rate, you'll get a comped night, too. Which makes the effective rate $272 and change. By current standards, that's still steep ... but maybe staying in a 392-room hotel instead of a 4,000-room behemoth is an intangible added value. What do you think?

Bounce-back for Macao?

Fri, 21 Aug 2009 17:17:00 -0700

Remember how gambling revenues in Macao during July were up 3% from last year (the first positive comparison this year)? That was soon followed by the news that numbers for the first half of August are even more encouraging still (+20%). Though Macanese casinos are on track for a $1.5 billion August, analysts urge caution, noting that the first half of August '08 was exceptionally weak.

Still: Wherefore this sudden resurgence?

Perhaps it's the delayed effect of a February loophole that allowed Guangdong Province residents to circumvent a ban on travel to Macao on Hong Kong visas. Whatever the case, business should get better still on Sept. 1 when, the Macau Tourism Council says, restrictions on Guangdong Province will be loosened even further. That's music to the ears of every casino boss in Macao, needless to say.

Sheldon Adelson, in particular, has fallen in clover. This revelation comes just as he's putting the finishing touches on a planned IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange (with Steve Wynn following suit). The stock offering, it is hoped, will generate sufficient liquidity to finish a quartet of stalled hotels on the Cotai Strip™ (with five more to come). Right now, the area looks like an outsize version of Miss Havisham's wedding, "leaving swaths of the nascent Cotai Strip covered by steel and concrete skeletons," in the words of Bloomberg News. Macao doesn't need more rooms right now. However, Adelson sure could use the lucre from the casinos onto which the hotels are piggybacked.

But what of Stanley Ho? While the casino baron ails, Bloomberg has unpacked Dr. Ho's June address to G2E Asia, in which he laid into his U.S.-based rivals. “The success of one market model cannot be migrated to another ... Ignoring Macao’s special characteristics and duplicating a Las Vegas or an Atlantic City would not be a successful strategy.” (The article also minces few words about the elder Ho's triad associations.)

Those of us who scoffed at Ho's antediluvian casinos are finding that the comparably ancient oligarch is having the last laugh, even if it may be from his deathbed. “The Macao audience is less focused on the ancillary things around gambling. Stanley, with his wealth of experience, understood that better," says Thornburg Investment Management analyst Alex Motola.

Meanwhile, various Ho clan members may be at daggers drawn. Favorite wife Angela Leong is the perceived successor, but daughters Pansy, Daisy and Maisy Ho (no, I didn't make that up) aren't going to step aside quietly, from the looks of things ... especially since Leong is only two years Pansy's senior. SJM CEO Ambrose So is also being tipped as a potential dark-horse heir to King Stanley's throne.

Business as usual at Hotel Lisboa.

But how would the Macanese government cotton to the notion of Pansy Ho controlling both the SJM concession and half of the MGM one? A third concession could be up for grabs if City of Dreams fails to perform, thereby becoming what Melco Crown Entertainment CEO Lawrence Ho calls his "endgame."

His father's death could also set off a philosophical war between the tried-and-true Stanley Ho business model, time-worn though it may be (and likely to be championed by Leong and So), and the Vegas Lite approach in which Lawrence and Pansy have dabbled. But with the Ho family having its fingers in three casino pies (MGM, Melco, SJM) simultaneously, they'll come out winners no matter which way the pie is sliced.

Stanley Ho's newest and oldest progeny: Grand Lisboa and Hotel Lisboa.

From Malaysia to Monticello. Do you recall those stock sales by Genting Bhd insiders a while back? At the time, it looked as though the money would go toward an acquisition of MGM Grand Macau. However, it now appears the lucre will purchase a stake in struggling Empire Resorts. That's the company whose executives were luxuriating in the low-tax suburbs of Las Vegas -- even though Empire's sole gaming asset was a racetrack in Monticello, N.Y., a full continent away.

City of (better) Dreams

Mon, 17 Aug 2009 11:19:00 -0700

J.P. Morgan has raised its 2010-11 cash flow estimates for Melco Crown Entertainment's $2.4 billion City of Dreams megaresort, bringing projected return on investment into the 11%-11.5% range. That comes in the wake of good news that gambling revenue in Macao was $1.2 billion in July, up 3% from last year. That's the first positive comparison of 2009.

What's still more stunning is July's sudden parity between Macanese operators. Stanley Ho commanded 23% of market share but Las Vegas Sands was nipping at his heels with 22%, followed by Melco Crown (18%), Wynn Resorts (15%) and MGM Mirage, leapfrogging past Galaxy (10%) into fifth place with 12%.

Adelson wins one. Sands CEO Sheldon Adelson has vanquished at least one litigant. A federal district court judge scotched former Adelson flunky Moshe Hananel's claim on a share of Sands' Chinese revenues. The former Interface Partners International exec sought credit for having the Sands-in-Macao idea first and laying the groundwork for Adelson's Chinese overture. Adelson recently paid off one trio of claimants and is still battling former associate Richard Suen after losing badly in court.

Casino wars in Macao

Fri, 07 Aug 2009 16:25:00 -0700

Bloomberg's interview with Credit Suisse's Steven Chan is now online and is must-see TV:

Packer steps in it again

Fri, 24 Jul 2009 12:02:00 -0700

After frequent demurrals, the Victoria government has 'fessed up that it was on the receiving end of ham-fisted lobbying by Crown Casino owner James Packer. A delicate quid pro quo (higher taxes in return for more table games) was being negotiated. But, not wanting to leave anything to chance, Packer personally besieged both Victoria's premier and treasurer in re Crown.

The state comes out of this looking worse than Packer, though, as witnessed by this weaselly attempt at damage control: "The Government is adamant that any expansion of Crown's gaming tables was under discussion for a long time and that poker was a less addictive form of gambling than poker machines." [Emphasis added] So I guess that makes it all copacetic, right?

Lawrence Ho & James Packer: less to smile about these days

Hammered in Macao. Packer's new City of Dreams is getting stomped by nearby Venetian Macao. VIP baccarat play for Melco Crown Entertainment properties was off 19% -- which is even worse than its sounds when you count on it for 60% of your total gambling revenues. Mass-market baccarat play was 12% up, so there's some consolidation. (Meanwhile, in some parallel universe, the Wall Street Journal is nattering on about a "brighter outlook" for Macao, even as revenue continues to decline and City of Dreams flops. Visitation was -16% in June and the Mainland China subset of that was -22%.)

A good thing for Sheldon Adelson that Venetian Macao's play is so strong. Bloomberg News reports that 85% of Las Vegas Sands' Macanese revenue is casino-derived ... which ought to raise serious questions about Adelson's hotel-, retail- and convention-premised Cotai Strip™ business model.

Moulin Rouge: Whoops!

Tue, 07 Jul 2009 14:27:00 -0700

The Moulin Rouge development that will never be.

Oh dear, oh dear. Seems like the City of Las Vegas unwittingly obstructed its own arson probe into the demise of the Moulin Rouge when it allowed the property to be immediately demolished. Sloppily, the actual tearing-down was farmed out to the property's former owners, who happened to have a demolition contractor on site during the blaze.

The fire's cause remains speculative and no finding of arson has been made -- and now perhaps never will. But the city's decision not only looks overhasty, it was (at the very least) cavalier to entrust it to dispossessed Moulin Rouge Development Corp. and not new owner Olympic Coast Development. The latter's prexy, John Hoss, told the Las Vegas Sun he found the chain of events "a little odd" and "a weird coincidence." Since Hoss is only trying to corral a $100,000 insurance claim, the city could get stuck with an asbestos-removal tab as high as $1.1 million.

Can they screw this up any further? Is the Pope Catholic?

F'bleau-minus. The bankrupt resort's developer, Jeffrey Soffer, proposes some unspecified corner-cutting to get the project back on budget. ("On budget" being a very relative term where Fontainebleau is concerned.) Combine this with the allegedly secret "Enhanced" costs for F'bleau's highly touted amenities and the moral of the story is that what you see on the Web site or in the design renderings has a tenuous relationship to what you'll actually get.

At least Soffer is offering to chip in some equity, unlike former investor James Packer, who scuttled away from F'bleau the moment the chips were down.

Gator on the loose. One of Las Vegas' larger parks got a lot more interesting yesterday when a 42-inch-long alligator turned up. Instead of entrusting the spunky fellow to a local zoo or perhaps one of our local casino-based wildlife habitats, the Wildlife Dept. killed him. Bastards. I hope they never get their mitts on our beloved Mojo ...

Mojo, the monarch of Huntington Press.

Speaking of James Packer ... griefs are arriving in battalions (thanks, Mr. Shakespeare) for City of Dreams. In terms of mass-market business, Venetian Macao is eating City of Dreams' lunch. "Despite 41,000 people walking through City of Dreams every day since it opened in the first week of June, most of the visitors were just admiring the decor instead of sitting down at its tables for a game of baccarat," reports The Age.

Not only is one analyst projecting a 15% earnings shortfall for Melco Crown Entertainment, another has tripled his loss-per-share projection. J.P. Morgan is also revising its 2010 cash-flow projections on the $2.1 billion megaresort to 13% ROI, down from 17%. (That's still a better return on investment than you can get on the Las Vegas Strip.)

Did Steve Wynn take Packer to the cleaners when sold him 37% of a casino concession for $1 billion? Wynn had a chance to size up Packer and deemed him not yet ready for the big leagues. Score another one for El Steve.

City of Nightmares?

Sun, 05 Jul 2009 17:29:00 -0700

Melco Crown International finds itself with the dubious distinction of having opened a megaresort and lost market share. The projected 7%, if accurate, would not only be 50% of what analysts expected, it could push Melco Crown behind MGM Grand Paradise and into last place in Macao. If I read Ian Sutton's footnotes correctly, Melco Crown is losing money on its VIP-player commissions at City of Dreams.

(Erratum: My mistake. City of Dreams is simply $40 million short of its projected rolling-chip play. The commission rate is a fixed cost.)

Meanwhile ...

The long arm of Stanley Ho reaches forth, extending his empire into the Pacific. Today Tinian, tomorrow ... ?

Stormy weather

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:40:00 -0700

It may be monsoon season in Las Vegas but there's a typhoon blowing through Macao's casino economy. A series of bulletins from J.P. Morgan outline a worrisome trajectory for China's gambling enclave.

City of Dreams: a flop

June 23: The South China Morning Post reports service cutbacks in Macanese air traffic during January-March. Low-cost carrier Air Asia held steady, but China Eastern Airline scrapped all flights, Xiamen Airline slashed service by 59%, followed by Malaysia Airlines (-38%). Single-digit declines were noted at Air Macau (-9%) and Viva Macau (-4%). Although recently de-licensed carrier East Star had been shedding flights (-40%), competitors did not appear to be moving to fill the void.

June 24: Macao's Special Administrative Region Statistics & Census Service reports a 20% visitation decline in May, to 1.6 million tourists. Of those, fewer than half were from the mainland (-27%) and 55% were day-trippers. Only 13% are coming from outside Hong Kong, Taiwan or the mainland.

July 1: News agency Lusa has preliminary revenue numbers for June (the first month for City of Dreams) and the comparisons, by Macao standards, are terrible: -17%, for $1.05 billion. So far, the casinos are tracking ahead of the government's revenue projections -- which were pretty dire ($892K/month) already.

There's a silver lining for Sheldon Adelson, whose Sands Macao and Venetian Macao rebounded, running Stanley Ho's myriad casinos a close second in market share, 26% to 30%. Wynn Macau fell toward the pack, which was as follows: Wynn 14% (a humiliating setback; it had been only three points behind Las Vegas Sands in May), Galaxy 12%, Melco Crown International down a point to 9%, and MGM Mirage bringing up the rear, as always, with 8%.

Sands Macao: Adelson's best-ever investment

Buoyed by Sands' Macao numbers, Morgan analysts are bullish on Adelson, mainly because of "reasonable near-term and achievable expectations for its LV Strip properties and our belief that its LV properties are outperforming its peers." Just when you think Sheldon's painted himself into a corner, he seems to find a means of escape ... which may be why some of us were less skeptical of the financial hurdles facing Sands Bethlehem and the Cotai Strip™ than we should have been.

There seems to be a school of belief that if one keeps saying that visa restrictions from mainland China to Macao are about to be relaxed, it will miraculously happen. Not if Peking muckety-mucks keep seeing headlines like this. More to the point, bailout money that was intended to induce Chinese banks into writing more loans, thereby stimulating production, is flowing to the casino tables instead. That's a scenario highly reminiscent of the circumstances that led Peking to crack down on Macanese traffic several times already.

MGM: Deal or no deal?

Wed, 17 Jun 2009 17:55:00 -0700

MGM Mirage CEO Jim Murren is re-mulling asset sales of MGM Grand Detroit, Gold Strike (Tunica, Miss.) and Beau Rivage. But all Strip assets are definitively off the market (yes, even Slots A Fun). Since the Detroit and Tunica casinos are already encumbered with CityCenter-related debt, presumably Murren would transfer those mortgages to some or all of the "Mandalay mile." As far as I know, those three casinos are still unencumbered. The Detroit resort would be a real "trophy asset" for any potential buyer ... presuming that banks are more inclined to lend than they were(n't) the last time Murren shopped this trio around.

The Las Vegas Review-Journal took a good look at MGM's Giza deal -- and it's even better than initially thought. Not only will the company collect management and franchise fees, it also gets a cut of any profits. If there's a downside here, I'm too myopic to see it.

MGM wouldn't sell Monte Carlo when Jack Binion came calling. One presumes this had more to do with potentially being able to extend CityCenter into Monte Carlo, rather than Jack's money not being good enough for MGM. However, if the company really cares about the property, why are they slowly letting it go to seed? The Brew Pub will close on July 12.

Also ... our LVA research team has discovered that no further Lance Burton performances are scheduled. This seemingly writes finis to his long relationship with Monte Carlo. Is it just an expedient way to save money or was Burton's unpardonable sin to get very good reviews from the local dailies right after Criss F. Angel laid an $85 million egg with Believe? Burton out and Angel in? That's just not right.

"IUER"? WTF? Don't call Melco Crown International's new City of Dreams a "casino." Melcospeak for the new pleasure place is "integrated urban entertainment resort." At least Steve Wynn's "casino-based destination resort" coinage rolled off the tongue a little more felicitously. On second thought, just call it "a casino."

Holy cow! The husk of the late, lamented Holy Cow Brew Pub & Casino (home of the best beer in Las Vegas) is proposed for redevelopment -- again. It was briefly the site-to-be of the phantom Ivana condo tower, one of the more egregious examples of condo "vaporware" during the recent bubble. Arizona- and New Mexico-based developers intend to tip the old Cow and replace her with a low-rise, low-cost (no hotel) casino.

The Strip needs some fresh mid-market casinos and this one could be it. But why make your anchor tenant a Walgreens when it's the flagship retailer ... of Palazzo. We sure could use the jobs, too, what with unemployment hitting record levels in Nevada. A good thing that Gov. Jim Gibbons was shamed into accepting federal funding for the jobless.

No Surprise Dept.: So the Moulin Rouge is (literally) toast and arson is suspected. The fire happened the day after a bankruptcy auction found no takers for the property.

Obama backpedals (sidepedals?) on gay rights. If he wants to give the country change it can believe in, how about revoking the profoundly un-American policy of throwing our LGBT brothers and sisters out of the military? If they've volunteered to lay down their lives for Old Glory, they're better people than me. And if Harry Truman is remembered for nothing else, he'll always be the president who integrated the military with a stroke of a pen. Does President Obama have Truman-like intenstinal fortitude?

One of the vilest of major-league baseball players back in the Eighties was slow-moving, philandering, showboating slugger Mel Hall. But we never knew just how loathsome he was. Good luck in the slammer, Mel.

Macao" rises again?

Wed, 17 Jun 2009 16:11:00 -0700

Block out the shopworn, mostly useless generalities coming from Las Vegas Sands and groove to Macao's scintillating casinos, recoil from its thick blanket of smog, and take some heart from Credit Suisse's prediction of an upturn in VIP play in the Chinese casino protectorate.

A contemporaneous Australian TV report -- which can't be embedded, alas -- was even more striking, especially in the stunning contrast between the sleek architectural beauty of Melco Crown International's new flagship, City of Dreams, and the fugliness of Sheldon Adelson's nearby monoliths. Cheers to Melco Crown for bringing a needed infusion of taste to the Cotai Strip™.

Case Bets: Packer & Ho, Sands Bethlehem, MGM Mirage, Ameristar, Penn, Harrah's, etc.

Wed, 03 Jun 2009 14:40:00 -0700

• Smashing guitars -- but not over each other's noggins -- James Packer and Lawrence Ho christened City of Dreams. The younger Ho downplayed expectations of foot traffic, saying his $2.4 billion megaresort could get by on far fewer visitors than the nearby (and comparably expensive) Venetian Macao, which draws 70K visitors daily.

• After a record-setting opening, Sands Bethlehem fell into fourth place during last week's casino action in Pennsylvania. Not surprisingly, Philadelphia Park and Harrah's Chester led the state.

• Beau Rivage is safe. Although MGM Mirage was peddling several of its regional casinos, J.P. Morgan reports that "we have heard from some bidders that this process is close to dead, so we don’t expect to hear asset sales chatter in the near to medium term."

• While yours truly was critical of staffing cuts at Ameristar Casinos, they appear to be paying off. The company projects flat revenue comparisons in 2009 but better cash-flow margins, pegging the savings as $40 million-$48 million, annualized.

• When in doubt, Penn National Gaming falls back on what it knows: racinos. It's angling for the Laurel Park concession left on the table when Magna Entertainment collapsed. Both Penn and rival David Cordish appear to be trying to chisel a loophole into Maryland's slot-parlor law, which limits companies to one slot house apiece. Penn is already committed to Cecil County but wants Laurel Park ... as does Cordish, who has a pre-standing commitment to the Arundel Mills area. The latter project has run into serious opposition. Expect a nip-and-tuck fight for Laurel Park.

• Penn is evidently getting cold feet in Ohio, however.

• Casino expansion in Iowa will have to wait until 2010, at the earliest. This delay is a disguised blessing. The Hawkeye State market has been holding its own during the recession but the timing for diluting the market with four new casinos could scarcely be worse.

• If wishes were horses, Harrah's Entertainment would be galloping along the shores of the Yangtze River this very minute. Seriously, would you lend Harrah's more money? Would you give an alcoholic the keys to your wine cellar? Well, you might get the empties back so you could redeem the deposit on the bottle.

Rumble in Macao

Tue, 02 Jun 2009 17:34:00 -0700

Although an oft-promised loosening of visa restrictions by Peking stubborny refuses to materialize, an air of cautious hopefulness has crept back into Macao now that City of Dreams has opened on schedule -- and it looks dazzling. Aggressive revenue projections have literally reversed the fortunes of co-owner James Packer, whose disastrous venture into the U.S. casino industry is now seen by some as a blessing in disguise.

At $2.4 billion, City of Dreams rivals the cost of Venetian Macao and is hoped to equal or surpass the latter's 20% return on investment. One projection has it leapfrogging Wynn Macau into third place, with 20% of the Macanese market.

It also represents a double-edged sword for Sheldon Adelson's mammoth casino-resort. If it draws more punters to the Cotai Strip™, good. If it dilutes Adelson's customer base, not so good, obviously. In comments to the Wall Street Journal, Adelson seemed at pains to temper some headstrong pronouncements he'd offered to Steve Friess. As expected, an Adelson without the restraining influences of William Weidner and Brad Stone, is a pedal-to-the-metal Sheldon, saying Las Vegas Sands should have gone faster, faster, faster with its Cotai Strip™ projects, not slower. (The mind reels.)

"I just came back from Macau and we have five or six different options that we can pursue, each one of which would solve our liquidity problems," the Venetian's doge proclaimed ... which doesn't sound a lot different from what he's been saying for months. That is, until he contradicted himself by buying up a truckload of LVS stock -- something he wouldn't have done were a major deal in the offing.

Adelson predicts all his suspended Macao projects will be back in gear by year's end. He's on the curve in one respect, suggesting that his aborted St. Regis condo-hotel on the Strip could be revived by Sands' acting as lender to prospective unit buyers. Palms Place just started doing that very thing.

Sheldon's Commissariat for Optimism never closes, so one tends to grow skeptical of each new variant of "Victory is mine!" Anyway, Adelson was just off the plane from China, so perhaps jet-lag accounts for this reality-challenged assertion: "Our numbers have been going up and the [Macau peninsula] have been going down."

'Fraid not. Scarcely had that Adelsonian utterance made print than Lusa reported May's revenue numbers. If April had seen Wynn Macau falling back toward the pack, with 13% of market share, it returned with a vengeance in May. Steve Wynn's 18% market share -- with far less capacity than Adelson -- put him only three points behind LV Sands and came at the latter's expense. Stanley Ho still leads everybody with 30% -- as much as Galaxy Entertainment, Melco Crown Entertainment and MGM Grand Macau combined.

A few days earlier came news that visitation from Mainland China to Macao had been -43% in April ... hardly propitious conditions for flooring the Cotai Strip™ gas pedal. Ditto a 10% drop in May gambling revenues. Until that much-mooted visa liberalization actually happens, going apeshit with casino-hotel construction makes no sense whatsoever.

Nor did Adelson do his public image any favors with a gratuitous slam against jilted sidekick Weidner. (The latter, given the opportunity to respond, took the high road.) This 'hit 'em when they're down' move will accrue exactly zero sympathy for Adelson -- and it might have some nasty repercussions should it hamper Weidner's attempts to find another job. Then again, he's as rich as Croesus, so he can probably spend the next few decades on the golf course, should he so desire.

There's been no additional movement on the rumored Genting Berhad offer for MGM Grand Macau. However, even in a $13.8 billion/year casino market, the numbers don't look great for MGM. After it splits its 8% market share with partner Pansy Ho, it would have $55 million from which to pay an onerous tax bill, plus operating expenses. (The ROI must be dismal.)

Borgata, in Atlantic City, does $55 million a month -- in a bad month -- and MGM basically cashes a check from Boyd Gaming. So if MGM elects to stay in Macao and vacate Atlantic City, it won't be because the Chinese enclave is contributing more to the bottom line. Who ever thought MGM Grand Macau would function as a glorified "loss leader"?

Steve Wynn has a dragon ... and now Lawrence Ho does, too.

Back home, MGM is going downmarket at The Mirage. And they didn't even have to sell the place to Penn National in order to get there.

Strangely enough ... Penn's recent expression of interest in both Planet Hollywood and Station Casinos passed with scarcely a murmur of comment locally. You'd think that a well-capitalized company like Penn's hanging of a target on Robert Earl's or Frank Fertitta III's back would make headlines -- or maybe Vegas journos have tired of Penn's endless feints and tuned the company out. Well, almost all of them, anyway.

Planet Hollywood, at least, is acting far more aggressively than one would expect from a property that is contemplating a sale. So perhaps Earl is more pursued than pursuer. However, his conversion of Desert(ed) Passage into Miracle Mile appears to have run out of steam -- or money -- at the halfway point. Try as he might, Earl is never going to completely de-Aladdin-ize that place. A magic lantern and three wishes would come in real handy down there.

Also flying under the radar was former Planet Ho boss Michael Mecca's enlistment with Galaxy. Mecca jumped -- or, more likely, was pushed -- from the Planet right when the Omar Siddiqui scandal was at its height. Informed speculation had it that Mecca was thisclose to being tapped to head up James Packer's projected North American gambling empire. Crown Ltd. CEO Rowen Craigie was noncomittal, though, and Crown's big Cannery Casino Resorts acquisition fell through soon thereafter, leaving Mecca hanging.

Success being the best revenge, Mecca not only landed a prestigious new gig -- it's with one of Packer's direct rivals in Macao. Mecca shoots, he scores!

Which brings us full circle to Macao. That worked out tidily, didn't it?

Pansy Ho: time for Plan C

Fri, 22 May 2009 18:12:00 -0700

In my usual cart-first, horse-later fashion, I elicited a legal opinion regarding the scenario I postulated the other night: MGM Mirage spinning off either its Atlantic City holdings or MGM Grand Macau into a quasi-autonomous entity, much as Sheldon Adelson proposes to do with his Macao properties.

Well, unless Pansy Ho can sit down with the New Jersey Casino Control Commission and charm them into turning a blind eye to the penumbra of unsavoriness that surrounds her father, Stanley Ho, MGM is up against a wall. It could put MGM Grand Macau into a limited partnership in which it would have equity but no power.

Did MGM spend so much time and money getting into Macao just so it could be a passive investor? Probably not. So either MGM has to scrape together the cash to buy out the Ho family or Pansy and her sister can exercise their right of first refusal on the property.

Likewise, Boyd Gaming holds the prerogative of acquiring MGM's Borgata share, but of all the possible scenarios on deck, that appears the most unlikely. Here's why:

Borgata represents no ongoing cost to MGM. It can sit back and collect 50% of the profits in perpetuity, while Boyd does the heavy lifting. In Macao, not only does MGM have to run the place, it's in a market with narrower profit margins, thanks to a confiscatory tax rate and the commissions charged by junket operators -- to say nothing of the draconian meddling of the Chinese government. And if it's relying solely on mass-market play, it's not enough to get MGM out of single-digit market share.

MGM took too long and spent too much getting into Macao to be happy with being stuck in sixth place among operators. If it's going to have to amputate a limb, losing Macao may be the less painful cut.

It could also be the more lucrative one because, even in a down market, Macao has two very price-boosting qualities: a finite number of casino concessions and a comparable limitation on casino-zoned land. Neither freeze is likely to thaw anytime soon.

Macao is still a seller's market. But if Boyd were to decline its option on MGM's half of Borgata, other suitors are going to be very hard to find. Nobody wants in on Revel or Bader Field and the Tropicana is essentially being given away. The accomplished Ms. Ho could still pull MGM's chestnuts out of the fire but if she can't, her family could wind up with 2.5 of the six casino concessions in Macao.*

* -- slightly more, actually, as James Packer's stake in Melco Crown Entertainment is exceeded by that of Lawrence Ho.

Dream on!

Wed, 13 May 2009 11:08:00 -0700

We're less than three weeks away from the opening of City of Dreams, the megaresort that many hope will defibrillate Macao's economy. One of its must-see attractions is sure to be this variegated LED ceiling. You can probably get the idea without watching the entire video. On the other hand, it is very soothing and relief is a precious commodity these days.

Boy, was I wrong!

Wed, 06 May 2009 12:29:00 -0700

Given their tightly held scruples about gambling, period, I figured that there was no way on God's green earth that Florida's Republican-dominated House would agree to lowering the gambling age (at least for slots) to 18. That looked, at first blush, like a deliberately inflammatory proposal, a star atop the state Senate's Christmas tree of gaming-industry concession and the first thing to go during negotiations.

Ha! I repeat: HA! House members are still dead-set against letting people in Tampa play blackjack, but lowering the gambling age to 18 has passed without a murmur, reports the Orlando Sentinel. Even the House has come round to granting the Seminole Tribe some tables (but only blackjack), while the Senate counterproposes a two-tier system whereby half the Seminole casinos get the full monty and half get none, just slots. As with poker limits, it's not a question of "Will they or won't they (get tables)?" Now it's, "How much?" Class II machines for parimutuels are off the table but state senators have come back with something even more contrived. It's enough to make your head spin.

No longer a Dream: June 1 has been set as the date for City of Dreams, the first megaresort built by Melco Crown Entertainment. Despite having two (eventually four) hotel towers, it will open with but 600 hotel rooms, potentially maxing out at 2,200 units. Hopefully, the initial business will give CEO Lawrence Ho something to crow about when he addresses G2E Asia later that month.

"Ugly Americans"?

Tue, 28 Apr 2009 11:15:00 -0700

G2E Asia has announced its keynote speakers and it's looking like a family affair. If you're up bright and early on June 3, you'll be treated to the insights of Stanley Ho, recipient of this year's "Visionary Award." The keynote address proper, the day before, goes to son -- and Melco Crown Entertainment CEO -- Lawrence Ho (above) who should be flush from the opening of City of Dreams.

So who's not on the roster of headliners? Ohhhhh ... anybody from Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts, MGM Mirage. You know: all the capitalist running dogs. They can take comfort in the fact that no keynoters have been invited from Hong Kong-based Galaxy Entertainment. That company just imported two new top execs from the U.S., so maybe it will be a proxy recipient of some of the anti-Americanism that's currently en vogue in Macao. At least, since G2E Asia is being held at his Cotai Strip™ CotaiExpo, CEO Sheldon Adelson will be crying all the way to the bank.

If you've ever been curious as to what LVA HQ looks like, here it is in all its glory. Be it ever so humble, there's no place like Huntington Press. No Stella Artois beer on tap these days, though. Darn that recession.

Icahn vs. Kerkorian II; Ho hearts Adelson

Fri, 17 Apr 2009 11:18:00 -0700

Yesterday saw some intemperate spluttering in newspaper comment threads, along the lines "How dare the Wall Street Journal report the news? It might damage stock prices!" (One hothead even bruited the possibility of a libel suit.) All of which was predicated on the assumption -- and we know what happens when we assume -- that the WSJ was merely chasing rumors when it reported that Carl Icahn and Oaktree Capital Management were putting the squeeze on MGM Mirage, trying to steer it into bankruptcy. (Some -- including The Economist -- think a CityCenter-driven bankruptcy is inevitable, regardless.)

Undeterred, the WSJ is back with the full story today and it's the real deal. Icahn and Oaktree are not acting in concert and their agendas are different. Icahn is thought to be angling for a piece of the company while Oaktree likes MGM the way it is, if only it could "clean up its balance sheet." Were they able to force the bankruptcy issue, their rights would supersede owner Kirk Kerkorian's and regime change would surely follow.

But that presupposes a great deal ... not the least the 'great deal' MGM got from its bankers when it was able to borrow $7 billion unsecured. Also, crunch time is still a long way off. Icahn and Oaktree's best chances for bending MGM to their will won't come until July or October, when an aggregate $1.5 billion in bonds must be repurchased. In order to prevail, either Oaktree, Icahn or both would have to thwart that repurchase, presumably by refusing to tender their bonds. But MGM still has a few cards to play in the meantime.

Across the Pacific, Bloomberg has the skinny today on what went down at Sheldon Adelson and Stanley Ho's secret lunch at Venetian Macao earlier this week and a subsequent summit meeting yesterday. (Melco Crown Entertainment CEO Lawrence Ho joined the oligarchs, as did MGM Grand Macau co-owner Pansy Ho, along with a local proxy for Wynn Resorts).*

It seems that detente is the word for the day, with the two ancient enemies agreeing to forego their arms race in favor of cooperation. Or, as the 87-year-old Ho put it, “Everyone agreed not to compete, to have enough rice to eat and to get more taxes for the government." (Adelson was uncharacteristically mum.)

... where the elite meet.

Considering the "cutthroat competition" (as Ho once put it, shortly after some junket operators had their throats slashed) that's prevailed so far in Macao, this new entente cordiale sounds like something that's going to be far easier said than done -- especially when the market begins to rebound. The latter already shows signs of bottoming out. MEAG Hong Kong Ltd. Investment Director John Koh speculated prior to Thursday's superpower meeting that the Adelson/Ho accord would mandate:

• one standard rate for junketeer commissions

• a salary freeze

• a hands-off policy toward one another's VIP ~~players~~ hosts and/or key executives

Since Adelson has several Cotai Strip™ projects -- including a St. Regis and a Shangri-La -- gathering rust, could his sudden amity with the Ho clan be a means of courting bailout money? And how would the Macanese government -- to say nothing of Steve Wynn -- react to the prospect of a polyamorous alliance betwixt SJM, Las Vegas Sands, Melco International and Ms. Ho's Shun Tak Holdings, say? Such a hyrda-headed oligopoly would give competitors a great deal to worry about and seems far from inconceivable, given the desperate circumstances of certain of the parties involved.

*--Galaxy Entertainment seems to have been conspicuous by its absence, but that underachieving company has other Koi fish to fry. The fact that Galaxy is writing down the value of its license, though, says less about the Macao market than about Galaxy and its failure to make substantial inroads, despite being one of the first companies on the scene.

Case Bets: Station Casinos, CityCenter, Pittsburgh, James Packer

Fri, 03 Apr 2009 11:22:00 -0700

Credit-default swaps, some of those financial instruments that have played hob with the U.S. economy, are making a cameo appearance in the tortured saga of Station Casinos. ~~If you insured Station's debt, that insurance is worth more than the paper your CDS is printed upon --~~ ~~but not by much~~.

Congratulations, MGM Mirage. Your probable rescuer is a bottom-feeder who's preparing to root around amidst the dregs of the banking industry. However, with CityCenter as much as $3.8 billion shy of the finish line, MGM isn't in a position be picky about going into business with the K-Mart of casino owners.

Rivers Casino, the former Majestic Star, has some CityCenter-style construction problems. This project has been so vexed and hexed that nothing comes as a surprise anymore.

Interesting business model. Halfway around the globe, Melco Crown Entertainment's got a lot riding on its City of Dreams megaresort. To bring back the whales, it's essentially promising that they can welsh on their markers with impunity. Or, as the company puts it, "Aggressive enforcement actions against a customer [may] unduly alienate the customer and cause the customer to cease playing at our casinos." And, gosh knows, nobody wants to alienate a deadbeat debtor.

Adelson says "Sell!"

Fri, 27 Mar 2009 17:54:00 -0700

... casinos, that is. In a once-unimaginable turn of events, Sheldon Adelson is openly discussing selling off chunks of his Macao triple crown: Venetian Macao, Sands Macao and the Four Seasons. For all of Adelson's brave talk about sunny skies ahead, the fact that he'd float such a scenario speaks to how Las Vegas Sands has fallen and can't get up unassisted.

Sheldon Adelson, meet your new business partner.

His improbable rescuer is ... Melco International, which raises the deliciously ironic prospect of Adelson going into business with the son of archenemy Stanley Ho. You can't script this stuff! The Lawrence Ho solution sidesteps the pesky question of how to bring in a third party, effectively creating a sub-sub concession. (Do you cut them out of the gambling revenue? Would Chinese authorities stay on the sidelines?)

However, it raises another conundrum: How is the Macanese government going to react to one subconcessionaire owning part of another concession? It should be fascinating to watch this unfold.

Harrah's enjoys bailout

Tue, 03 Mar 2009 13:27:00 -0700

"Critics argue that the tax-law change rewards companies that took on too much leverage during the credit bubble, such as those that were bought by private-equity firms."

Sound like anybody we know? How about Harrah's Entertainment, which played Russian roulette with the bond market and got its brains spattered all over the wall. Lucky for them, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) was there with a "Get Out of Jail Free" card -- or at least a tax break that, in effect, rewards morally hazardous borrowing. Thanks to Harry's largesse, it'll be a full decade before Harrah's pays off the gains it's about to realize from buying back part of its $23 billion (!) debt at a discount.

That is, assuming that the crafty Reid hasn't carved out yet another tax exemption for improvident borrowers like Harrah's, Station Casinos and Colony Capital by 2019. And between that gift-wrapped tax deferment and last week's endorsement by Nevada GOP kingmaker Sig Rogich, Reid is as good as re-elected through 2016. (Which must come as a terrible disappointment to Las Vegas Review-Journal Publisher Sherman Frederick, who has been conducting a blushing-maiden campaign for the GOP nod via his blog and Sunday column, trying to draft himself as Nevada's Only Hope of Salvation.) One prospective Reid rival has seen the handwriting on the wall and given up.

As the Wall Street Journal story points out, there are far worse outcomes for Harrah's management, its employees -- innocent bystanders to this debacle -- and its debtors, who'll realize some tax forgiveness themselves. Besides, it's clearly preferable that super-leveraged companies pay back some of their debt rather than walk away from the whole kit 'n kaboodle. That goes without saying.

But what lesson is likeliest to be drawn in the boardroom? Will it be, "Damn, but we dodged a bullet there! Let's not pull an LBO stunt like that again"? Or will executives reach the conclusion, "Hey, that was easy! As soon as we're clear of this mess, let's run up another whopping tab. We won't have to pay off the whole thing and we'll probably get another big-ass tax break from Harry in the bargain. Party on, dudes"?

Recent history does inspire confidence that the former option will hold sway over the latter.

Small victory for Sands: There's a silver lining in the (relatively) dismal February revenue numbers from Macao, which are down 16% from last year, to $1 billion. "Dismal," that is, by Macao standards, which are higher than anybody else's.

While Stanley Ho continues to command the plurality of the market (29%), Las Vegas Sands has clawed back. Its January market share (22%) has risen to nearly 26%. These gains came mainly at the expense of Melco Crown Entertainment (down to 9%) and MGM Mirage/Pansy Ho (bringing up the rear with 6%).

Given the worrisome financial straits MGM finds itself in elsewhere, it's time to think the once-unthinkable: That CEO Jim Murren could decide that $30 million/month in revenue isn't worth maintaining a Macanese beachhead and sells the company's subconcession back to Stanley Ho. Then the elder Ho's tactless references to MGM Grand Macau as "my casino" would achieve the status of prophecy.

Cannery sale on ice?

Wed, 25 Feb 2009 15:41:00 -0700

Nevada Gaming Control Board Chairman Dennis Neilander was kind enough to ring up pesky old NGCB detractor S&G today and provide some clarification on why Crown Ltd. and its supremo, James Packer, passed muster in the Silver State but have run into heavy weather in Pennsylvania.

"When we first started ... the Packer shares are held in a variety of trusts," controlled by Packer himself, Neilander explained. NGCB representatives met with trust counsel and "pored through all of the trusts," concluding that Packer was the controlling shareholder. "We have no concerns about it here. It was all disclosed to us."

(A government source adds that trustees fear Keystone State confidentiality provisions are less airtight than Nevada ones and information provided to regulators would become public. Which is why three Crown Ltd. participants are suing -- under aliases -- for declaratory relief, in a Delaware court.)

As for a spate of recent developments, Neilander said that Gretel Packer (above) -- who's suddenly gotten cold feet about Pennsylvania licensure -- didn't reach the 10% ownership threshhold necessary to mandate Nevada scrutiny. "We did" have contact with gambler Harry ~~Kanavos~~ Kakavas, Neilander added, saying that at the time there was no indication that Kanavos had tapes of Crown executives allegedly making illegal overtures to him. (Pennsylvania has sent an investigator Down Under to hear the recording.) And with regard to bribery allegations connected to Melco Crown Entertainment's City of Dreams project, those arose late in the proceedings, the chairman said, and there was not enough evidence from which to reach a conclusion as to their validity.

Neilander added that the NGCB is monitoring both the Kanavos and Macanese situations for potential post-licensure action. But with Cannery Casino Resorts bosses William Paulos and William Wortman accusing the Packers of colluding to scuttle the sale, these questions may soon be extremely moot.

Packer steps in it again

Thu, 19 Feb 2009 18:50:00 -0700

Now aren't you glad that the Nevada Gaming Control Board and Gaming Commission were so quick to give James Packer the green light to own Cannery Casino Resorts? Not only is he facing an unfolding scandal in Australia, two casinos he co-owns in Macao have been tied into a high-profile bribery case. Whoops.

When asked for comment, Packer's Crown Ltd. passed the buck ($1AU) to Melco Crown Entertainment, in effect dumping the matter in the lap of Packer partner Lawrence Ho. Considering that Packer/Ho's City of Dreams was built on land earmarked for an institution of higher learning -- without even waiting for formal rezoning approval -- this could stir serious backlash in Macao. Foreign-born casino owners are the villain of choice this season, perceived to have their thumbs on the scales of justice.

Who knows? Maybe the younger Ho or one of his associates did grease somebody's palm. However, the casino career of the Packer scion continues to be a catalogue of missteps and misfortunes. Vegas will make short work of him ... if he's still allowed to set up shop here.

Stanley Ho's comeback

Mon, 02 Feb 2009 12:48:00 -0700

Citing the Lusa news agency, J.P. Morgan says that Macao casino revenues for January came in higher than expected, at $1.1 billion. The shocker, though, is the revision of market-share figures, which previously had shown Stanley Ho and Sheldon Adelson each holding a quarter of the market. Lusa's revised numbers show Ho thrusting Adelson firmly into second place -- 28% to 22%. This is a sobering setback for Las Vegas Sands, whose CEO had forecast the demise, at least a dramatic downsizing, of Ho's casino empire.

Let this also be a lesson to those us (present company included) who thought Vegas swankiness would trump customer loyalty to Ho's older -- some would say seedier -- product. The "B" plotline is that Wynn Macau's market share is 17%, only five points behind Sands Macao and Venetian Macao despite far less capacity. Galaxy Entertainment (13%), Melco Crown Entertainment (11%) and MGM Mirage (9%) divvy up the remainder, with the latter paying the price for being last into the market and a reportedly disadvantageous location. This is one race where those who bet on the tortoise over the hare will be chagrined.

Speaking of Stanley Ho, he and an associate have dropped $284,000 into the coffers of the New South Wales branch of Australian Liberal Party. This is significant because Ho made a run at a New South Wales casino years ago but was deemed "unsuitable." Don't be surprised if the Liberals suddenly discover him to be cleaner than a hound's tooth.

Shakeup at Sands. With its Macao and Singapore projects lagging badly, Las Vegas Sands has tasked a new executive team for its Asian portfolio. Senior Vice President Leonard DeAngelo comes by way of Penn National and, before that, a different kind of Sands -- the vanished Sands Hotel & Casino in Atlantic City. Former Langham Hotels & Resorts executive Nigel Roberts has been named president of behind-schedule Marina Bay Sands.

Executive VP Brad Stone has been promoted to the newly created role of president of global operations and construction, which puts him in charge of design and building for all Sands projects worldwide. It's a thankless task but expectations for Sands have fallen so low that if Stone effects even a modest improvement it will seem a triumph.

Macao: Shooting dice with death

Tue, 20 Jan 2009 17:40:00 -0700

There's a bigger worry for casinos in Macao than whether the Chinese government eases visa restrictions: Some of the high-roller trade is dying -- literally. Macau Polytechnic Institute traced the fate of 99 VIP players who got into trouble with Chinese authorities. Not only were 15 facing death sentences, another seven had either killed themselves or been murdered. Two more had their death sentences commuted. And that's not counting an additional 20 in the hoosegow on lesser sentences. See what happens when you play too much Super Happy Fortune Cat?

Of course, it's easy to live the high-roller lifestyle when you're wagering with stolen money. Given that Chinese companies and governmental agencies were being sucked dry by kleptocrats with a gambling jones, Peking is understandably wont to tighten the screws on Macao. VIP-oriented operators like Melco Crown Entertainment and Wynn Resorts are most likely to feel the pinch, as we know is happening with Crown.

Ironically, for all its overreach in Macao, Las Vegas Sands made at least one sound decision when it targeted mass-market play. Too bad they proceeded to go and drink their own milkshake, as Venetian Macao sucks Sands Macao dry. (It's by now abundantly clear that it's no skin off the central government's nose if its effort to keep a close grip on where China's capital is flowing happens to throttle a few casino operators in the process.)

If Macao Chief Executive Edmund Ho (pictured) didn't have enough to worry about, a distant relative is wanted by Interpol. (Ian Sutton found the arrest warrant.) Even in American politics, the alleged misdeeds of your brother's brother-in-law might not arouse too much fuss and bother. But Chan Lin-ian and his missus are tied to the mega-scandal surrounding graft-meister Ao Man-long, who's currently doing 27 years' worth of hard time. If Sinologists are right that Peking wants to exert more direct control over Macao, this latest imbroglio would be useful leverage for pushing Edmund Ho out of office ahead of schedule, were it to suit the central government's motives.

The fine hand of Peking may be behind a newly organized and very umbrageous citizens group, Macau Residents, which has a Cotai Strip™-sized beef with Sheldon Adelson and his Las Vegas Sands.

Just for starters, the trademarking of "Cotai" (a conflation of Taipa and Coloane, Macao's two principal islands) sticks in the organizers' collective craw. Furthermore, the inevitable collision between the casino interests of Macao and Singapore has finally occurred. "We are hurt and angry that Sands Casino after making big monies from Macau had openly declared it will focus on Singapore instead of completing its unfinished works in Macau," rages the online petition. Taking as its pretext recent and massive layoffs at Sands' Macao properties, the group calls for the government to repatriate Adelson's land and casino concessions, and re-sell them to the highest bidder. (Oh, if only Gary Loveman could still borrow money!)

Macau Residents meet(s) the press, Jan. 19, 2009.

If I'm skeptical that this grassroots effort might be more like Astroturf, there are a few reasons. First, the group seems to be acting with a great deal of impunity, especially in deeply authoritarian China -- though the fine points of the Macanese/Mainland interrelationship may provide some wiggle room for those who want to take it to the streets of Macao.

Second, if the rift between Adelson and Chinese authorities is wide as has been speculated, what's the harm of ginning up an ersatz "people's revolution" to discomfit some capitalist running dogs (whose money just happens to have run out)? Perhaps you can even use it as a pretext to banish them in favor of somebody with greater solvency.

Third, the job cuts that "Macao Residents" is ostensibly protesting fell with greatest predominance upon guest workers, not Macanese citizens. Though, to be fair, a management-imposed workweek reduction hits very close to home indeed.

Sheldon Adelson™

Fourth, the threat from Singapore is not as severe as it's made out, seeing how the government down there has acceded to yet another Adelson-style soft opening, starting with the casino of course, with the rest of Marina Bay Sands' convention-oriented features eventually limping onto the scene. (Sound familiar?) It's an embarrassing climbdown for a government that had set as one of its goals making a high-impact splash in the international convention trade, not a dribbly "plop."

So these activists could be front men for Peking or they could be a bunch of Davids taking on Goliath. Either way -- and especially if some of the more attention-getting scuttlebutt proves to be true -- Sands' Macanese empire, its attempt to create Instant Vegas -- whoops, sorry, Asia's Las Vegas™ -- is presently being picked at like a beached whale during low tide.

The prodigal son

Mon, 19 Jan 2009 18:03:00 -0700

Poor Kerry Packer; the late Australian mogul and famous high roller must be doing all his rolling in the grave now. Reputed for being daring at baccarat and cautious in business, the media baron is at least spared the indignity of seeing son James Packer blow through his patrimony at a record pace.

Going is the $33 million yacht; on hold is the $40 million corporate jet. Even work on the $2.5 million backyard swimming pool has been suspended. (Don't you hate it when that happens?) At least the pin placements on Packer's Greg Norman-designed golf course are still "changed every day at massive expense," reports Rupert Murdoch's News.com.au.

More seriously, Packer is reported to be suffering from depression, though other media reports dispute this. Given the debilitating, even paralyzing nature of the disease (something for which I can vouch firsthand), it puts a potentially very different cast upon Packer's December no-show for a Nevada Gaming Control Board hearing.

When Packer did turn up, Chairman Dennis Neilander admitted to being somewhat foxed by Packer's acquisition of Cannery Casino Resorts (for $1.8 billion). "You and me both," I thought. As Packer seemingly played Pin the Tail on the Donkey, buying not only Cannery but positions in Fontainebleau, Station Casinos, Harrah's Entertainment and the flaccid Crown Las Vegas 'failsino'-tower, I tried to convince myself that an overarching strategy was at work. In retrospect -- especially after the writedown of the Station and Harrah's investments -- what we were witnessing was James Packer, Shopaholic. (How did he manage to miss out on the Cosmopolitan?) One begins to see why Steve Wynn steered clear of Packer, back when the talk of a Wynn-Packer joint venture was the buzz du jour on the Strip.

Even the Crown Macau cash spigot has been sputtering, although Melco Crown CEO Lawrence Ho keeps insisting that Chinese access to Macao will improve in time for the City of Dreams opening. (Either he's whistling past the graveyard or he knows something for which others would pay a very great number of patacas.) Market share is down at Crown Macau and the Macanese government is predicting a serious diminution of gaming revenue for for the overall market in 2009, placing it somewhere near $10.7 billion.

Plus, the ripple effect doesn't stop there. Aristocrat Leisure, which could really stand to have some good news, had been hoping for a fivefold increase in its installed slot base in Macao over the next two years. Not only is that unlikely, operators are trimming their existing slot inventory.

Underscoring their pessimism regarding reduced visa restrictions, Macanese tourism officials are turning their gaze at least partly away from China. Among the newly coveted markets are Singapore's presumed feeder markets -- India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and even Australia and New Zealand -- to say nothing of Singapore itself. It's long been presumed that Singapore's got a tough row to hoe when its casino megaresorts come on line and it just keeps getting tougher.

Weidner kowtows in Macao

Thu, 15 Jan 2009 16:46:00 -0700

A large serving of humble pie for Las Vegas Sands President William Weidner was on the menu as he handed over the keys to the University of Macau's new Adelson Advanced Education Center. No, he said, he didn't blame his company's financial problems on the Chinese government, as had been reported. Sands would be "less American" in its approach to developing Henquin Island. If people had misinterpreted Sands' confidence as an "over-direct, overpowering American attitude," it had been "humbled" now. (Topic for U of Macau students: "Las Vegas Sands as Metaphor for U.S. Foreign Policy, 2001-09." Discuss.)

Quoth Weidner, "all our earnings in Macao have stayed in Macao and were matched five times over by additional investments in Macao.” Ah, so they were cannibalizing Macanese revenue, rolling it into Cotai Strip™ expansion, after all.

Small wonder that Sands is resented within Macao if, as The Independent reports, it's been sweating employees' tips. Then again, the paper's report of $953 million in Macao casino profit last quarter is clearly out of wack. (The reporter himself seems unsure whether it's revenue or profit, though it's clearly the latter.)

As for the newly available Taiwan market, Weidner demurred. Finishing projects in Singapore (where the projections look inauspicious) and Macao are his priorities, he said. Given Sands' parlous financial state, it's now a moot point ... but did CEO Sheldon Adelson's comrades in Peking warn him away from Taiwanese expansion? Adelson had been sussing out casino prospects there.

Perhaps. After all, Melco Crown Entertainment CEO Lawrence Ho was quick to temper his own Taiwanese ambitions with the caveat, "we wouldn't want to do anything to piss [the Chinese government] off." Unfortunately for Melco Int'l and other Macao-centric gaming stocks, the market isn't buying the younger Ho's contention that visa expansion is just a few months away -- especially in light of recent gambling scandals that have led to, among other things, 15 executions [registration req'd]. Play too much Super Happy Fortune Cat and you might wind up in front of a firing squad, too, or at least doing a couple of dimes in the slammer.

Back home, the latest busted LBO play for the Golden Nuggets, combined with parent Landry's issuance of more debt, has knocked 48% off the stock price in less than a week. Considering that the last two tender offers for LNY shares went out at $21 and $13.50, respectively, that $7/share buyout offer should be coming along any day now.

Lean prospects for City of Dreams

Tue, 13 Jan 2009 12:59:00 -0700

Or "City of -- interrupted -- Dreams" as it's called on Flickr. Whatever the case, Melco Crown Entertainment is committing to a 2Q09 opening of City of Dreams, hopefully absorbing some of unemployment currently stemming from Las Vegas Sands' stuttering Macanese operations and from struggles and the company's own Crown Macau. (Most of the 9,000 Sands-related pink slips are in construction, so don't expect City of Dreams 7,000 job openings to make much of a dent there.)

Either CEO Lawrence Ho has a back channel to Peking or he's engaging in wishful thinking. Either way, he predicted to reporters that visa restrictions from the Chinese mainland would be eased in "the next few months" (just in time for the City of Dreams opening, imagine that) and that last weekend's visit to Macao by the vice president of China means that economic relief is on the way. While Peking needs to reopen the throttle on visitation to Macao, its stated priority -- wrongheaded or otherwise -- remains that the semi-autonomous zone must diversify its economy. (Talk about "easier said than done"!)

Ho's views stand in stark contrast to those of a pair of Morgan Stanley analysts who foresee no visa relief -- plus a further 10% decline in casino revenue -- for the balance of 2009. Furthermore, Deutsche Bank's Karen Tang points out that high-end Melco Crown is an unlikely beneficiary of increased mass-market play (think SJM, maybe Sands).

If average casino revenue continues at the diminished rates projected by Macao über-boss Edmund Ho (no relation), Melco Crown would be looking at a 19% falloff from its 3Q08 pace. It would also mean that casino revenues in the enclave are flat with 2007, despite a considerable infusion of new capacity. As discomfiting as it may be, taking a "go (very) slow" policy on additional construction is -- with the arguable exception of overachiever Wynn Macau -- clearly the prudent course of action.