David Mckee's Stiffs & Georges - Goldman Sachs

Green $hoots?

Tue, 08 Sep 2009 18:22:00 -0700

There's nothing like the approach of 2010's Global Gaming Expo to make Las Vegas hoteliers rethink their rates. For instance, if you want to stay at that palace of pleasure and plushness, the Plaza downtown, it'll run you $55 a night. Even the somewhat seedier Vegas Club will set you back $52/night.

Elsewhere in downtown, troubled Binion's may not be able to pay its landlords, but that's not stopping it from charging $172.62 during G2E Week. Even the clown house is cheaper: $142 gets you a Circus Circus room. That's a bargain when you consider that Stratosphere wants $164 per night.

As for the dubious privilege of hanging your hat at Imperial Palace, that'll cost you $189, bub. But the nerviest of the bottom feeders has to be Hooters. As of Sept. 4, it wasn't blushing to demand $192 per evening. Trust me when I say Hooters ought to pay you to stay there.

Then again ... I know of someone who got six nights at Imperial Palace -- during New Year's Eve -- for $16.65/night. So, rumors of Las Vegas' imminent recovery are probably premature.

"Viva Elvis"

Wed, 02 Sep 2009 01:38:00 -0700

Obssessed? Moi?

Yes, Viva Elvis will be the long-awaited, enshrouded-in-secrecy title of the Cirque du Soleil show scheduled to debut this December at CityCenter.* Wow, they must have had to really burn the midnight oil in Montreal to come up with that one ... Speaking of name changes, Scarlett and her Seductive Ladies of Magic (at the Riviera) is now Abra-Ca-Sexy. Well, it's catchier ... The wheels continue to fall off the Riviera train: An Evening with Dean and Friends has closed, as has the dinner buffet (again) ... Lost in the bankruptcy tumult at the Greek Isles was the opening of a new show. Its cumbersome title is Chinaman: A Rock & Roll Comedy Experience. Moving right along ... By the time you read this, Rockstar: The Tribute should have reopened at the Harmon Theater after a disastrously short stint at the Wyrick Entertainment Complex (aka, "the Venue of Death") in Planet Hollywood. However, the Harmon has given it as much advance publicity as an IRS raid on a Vegas nightclub, so that's not a promising start ... In like manner, Beatles tribute Penny Lane tiptoed into the Tropicana without so much as a 'by your leave' ... Back at Planet Ho, Tony 'n Tina's Wedding evidently isn't performing up to expectations. Ticket prices have been reduced 13%-30%, although they're still steep ($63-$143) ... It looks like Deutsche Bank is going to wait a spell and open the Cosmopolitan in Sept.-Oct. 2010. Which, given that the Strip's been strangling on a glut of high-end rooms, is probably the wisest course of action. Wall Street's former Holy Grail, "another wave of megaresort openings," has become a phrase to be dreaded.

Ready for some good news? The most remarkable dancer of the late, lamented Sin City Kitties, Koree Kurkowski, is now part of the ensemble of Bite. The show is kitsch to the nth degree but it's entertaining in its own so-bad-it's-good fashion. The Stratosphere casino floor was pretty dead for a Friday night last weekend, but Bite was definitely packing them in. It's not as good as Sin City Bad Girls (at the Las Vegas Hilton) but way better than forgettable X Burlesque (at the Flamingo).

* -- the Viva Elvis revelation was let slip during last weekend's Michael Jackson festival at The Palms. I learned of it after being invited -- on 75 minutes' notice -- to co-host an episode of Steve Friess' The Strip Podcast, in which I am teased for being "obsessed" with Carmen Electra. I'll link to the edited version once it's available, so you can hear me date myself with a Barbi Benton shout-out.

This isn't Photoshop but an ad clipped from a Michigan newspaper, I kid you not:

The things you can find at the grocery store these days ...

Abraca - OMFG!

Fri, 21 Aug 2009 11:53:00 -0700

Scarlett, Princess of Magic has settled into her new revue, Scarlett and her Seductive Ladies of Magic, which finally gives me a reason to encourage people to visit the Riviera. The video below is taken from Scartlett's family-friendly V Theater show (long since closed) but many of the same tricks are reprised, on a bigger scale -- and with far less clothing. Her instance, the one-piece has devolved into a 'barely there' red bikini. Make sure your pacemaker is in working order.

There's some incredibly perfunctory toplessness from two assistants/dancers but it's Scarlett who brings the sexy -- and how! If this doesn't work out, she'd make a formidable contestant on Dancing with the Stars, too. I'm no great judge of magic but Scarlett is definitely the most hot-cha Strip headliner not named Marie Osmond. In a classy gesture, Scarlett's former presenter, David Saxe, was at the Riv last night amidst the well-wishers.

As for the Riv itself, corner-cutting is omnipresent, sometimes amusingly so. The post-Scarlett cocktail party featured but a lone plate of bruschetta and some cheese cubes. When they were (quickly) gone, they were gone. The Riv is just hanging on by its fingernails, even if it's not fallen off the cliff yet.

Amazed. It looks like an open-ended run is assured for this afternoon comedy show, highlighted by guitar-playing impressionist Mark Rayburn. (After you've seen him, you'll never take Gordie Brown seriously again.) Tickets are just a wee bit steep for a 2:30 p.m. show, but this is a winner, much better than certain comedy shows which I've seen and/or reviewed recently. I can't recommend it too highly. My more extended impressions of Amazed and Scartlett are due for publication in the near future.

Buffet bulletin. No word yet on whether MGM Grand, Luxor, Excalibur or Stratosphere are reining in their all-day buffet specials. Ben Bernanke's confidence notwithstanding, optimism in Vegas should be tempered with caution ... and price increases probably should not even be contemplated until those downward-trending visitation numbers start heading up for a change. One needn't be an economist to see that Nevada's recovery, when it happens, will be slow in coming.

The juice behind the juice. Could the speedy restoration of Privé's liquor license, following some cosmetic changes in management, have had another motive? Like maybe a precipitate dropoff in Planet Hollywood foot traffic? Xania Woodman reports, you decide.

Goliath gets a clean bill of health.

Goliath adopted? There's a glimmer of hope that little Goliath may soon find a new home. Why then am I so melancholy?

Report from the Strat

Tue, 02 Jun 2009 11:12:00 -0700

A reader asked (possibly in jest) how the Hard Rock Hotel was vis-a-vis the Stratosphere. While I don't have the basis for an A:A comparison, I can comfortably say that if you can afford the Hard Rock, it's no contest. Under new owner Goldman Sachs, the Strat appears to have -- if you'll pardon the expression -- passed its peak and begun a slow descent into seediness.

The slot mix is very "blah" and decidedly third-tier, with lots of generic machines and ones you've probably never heard of before. And while the HRH's casino floor is designed so that it contains and heightens the energy, it's the opposite case at the Strat. The latter is an anachronism: a post-Mirage casino designed with a pre-Mirage "capture" mentality.* It's absurdly strung out, as though intentionally diffusing and minimizing the energy of the play that's taking place. The amount of action looked pretty respectable for a Monday night but was muted by the immensity and sparseness of the space itself.

It's like MGM Grand without any of the upside. If you're heading to the showroom be sure and pack water and provisions (or hire a rickshaw) because you're in for a long hike. While Goldman Sachs may have been cutting back on staff, the timeshare barkers -- a holdover from the Carl Icahn era -- continue to accost customers at will. By what twisted logic do casino executives convince themselves that allowing their patrons to be hassled in this fashion is actually good for business?

* -- for this we have Lyle Berman and Bob Stupak to thank, but they've long since left the building.

Case Bets: Isle exits U.K.; no room at the Trop; Carlino channels Astaire, etc.

Fri, 24 Apr 2009 17:22:00 -0700

Isle of Capri Casinos is coming up for air, literally extricating itself from underneath Ricoh Stadium in Coventry, U.K. As part of CEO James Perry's attempt to refocus a company that spread itself too thin under his predecessor, he's walking away from an ill-starred British venture. Rank Group not only assumes Isle's lease, it gets the casino itself for pocket change, by industry standards: $940,000.

Perry may also be preparing to unload Isle's Pompano Park racino in the disappointing Florida market. At least one analyst is now picking Isle, so recently stuck in the mud, as one of the better bets to emerge intact from the gaming group's crisis.

A house divided cannot flush. Staggering from miscalculation to mishap, the Tropicana Las Vegas has sustained another self-inflicted wound. But don't blame current steward Tropicana Entertainment, predecessor Columbia Sussex or even Aztar Corp. The non-kosher plumbing that got the Paradise Tower shut down dates back to the 1990s, when the Trop was under divided ownership (one of the many obstacles to its redevelopment). The scary part is that it took at least 10 years for the code violations to be discovered.

The real victims, of course, are the hotel guests who are getting bumped from their Paradise Tower rooms. Since it's far and away the nicest part of the Trop, by definition they'll be moving to less-desirable rooms, some of them in truly decrepit parts of the hotel. Given the condition of the Trop's physical plant when I made a "secret shopper" visit, today's news comes as less than a surprise. The resort's advancing years were bound to catch it out sooner rather than later.

Penn's fancy footwork. While not out-and-out denying an attention-getting New York Post story about a possible 'credit bid' play for The Mirage, executives of Penn National Gaming were at some considerable pains to imply that it was all smoke, no fire. CFO William Clifford put it thusly: "... there were quotes and things said that have been pulled all the back to the last year’s Gaming Conference ... I’m not quite sure that the Post article is a very good reflection of anything we’ve ever said at any point in time."

CEO Peter Carlino followed with, "Some of the most interesting quotes were made at a time when none of the stuff that you are all currently thinking about was out there so it’s unfortunate. It’s just a hodgepodge of things pulled together to make a story. We would have preferred not to have seen it that way. Look, common sense says if there’s an opportunity we’re going to follow it but it’s no more exciting than that; enough said." [Emphasis added]

A Bloomberg News report that Penn was pursuing Greektown Casino went unaddressed in yesterday's earnings call. To the extent that Carlino was willing to commit himself on Las Vegas, he said Penn wanted no more than a single property "if we can find one." The consensus of Penn execs was that Vegas would be a "viable" market for the company ... in five years. (The company's strategy is partially predicated on an exodus of Californians relocating to Vegas and jump-starting the local economy.)

Sadly, Atlantic City seems to have slipped off Penn's radar screen altogether. On a happier note, the company promises a new and "exciting" replacement for the Empress Joliet pavilion that was destroyed by fire -- which makes it sound like the previous Ye Olde Egypt theme is now history, so to speak.

Schreckliche Idee! At a time when institutions like Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank control ever-larger chunks of the Strip, the Nevada Gaming Commission is seriously considering lowering the threshold of scrutiny even further. (Because if there are any two words that instill confidence nowadays, those words are "Wall Street.")

The man fronting this idea, veteran gaming attorney Frank Schreck, argues that his proposed rule change wouldn't result in casinos ceding managerial or operational control. However, that's already happened at the Las Vegas Hilton, where a Goldman-owned stalking horse holds a sizeable minority interest. What he's proposing would take a bad precedent and codify it.

By linguistic coincidence, schreck is the German word for "fright" and the root of schrecklich or "horrible." Which is what this idea is. But Nevada regulators are already overburdened and about to become more so, once the next budget is enacted. Given that grim future, Schreck's proposed lightening of their workload will be probably be embraced.

The end of Viva

Thu, 02 Apr 2009 18:02:00 -0700

That's one of the implications of Colony Capital's potential cash infusion into CityCenter. Since Colony owns 3/4 of Station Casinos and might find itself with a big piece of CityCenter, it's an utter certainty that it wouldn't go along with the notion of Station building a fugly CityCenter knockoff on the other side of I-15. Of course, the Fertitta Bros. still control the Station board, so they could try and drag Colony down the Viva highway to hell if they want to force the issue.

But what does it say about CityCenter if Colony wants to buy in? The fund's track record in casino investing has been predominantly dreadful of late. A philosophy of acquiring "non-performing loans, distressed assets ... out-of-favor sectors," hasn't worked out so well. For instance, the REIT got a fire-sale price ($140 million) on Resorts Atlantic City, then saddled the dowager with a mortgage 160% excess of her market value.

When Resorts' sclerotic revenues caught up with Colony, it simply opted out of its "house payments." This nearly brought us the edifying spectacle of seeing a casino get repossessed by the bank. Between the venerable Resorts and the comparably ancient and non-performing Atlantic City Hilton, the fund's Boardwalk portfolio risks being dubbed "Colony Crapital."

Not only did Colony overpay (or, more accurately, over-borrow) for Station Casinos, it got further hornswoggled in the deal. Despite holding 76% of the equity, it only controls 40% of the board. Similarly, it let Goldman Sachs buy into the Las Vegas Hilton by dint of surrendering ultimate authority over capex decisions to Goldman.

It seems baffling from a common-sense standpoint that Colony could purchase a big stake in City Center, offer $850 million for the Tropicana Atlantic City (as it did last spring) or start a new fund to buy more yet distressed assets (as it's doing) when most of its casino properties are sucking wind. Shouldn't it be salvaging what it's already got?

Ethically, yes; realistically, no. For a fund like Colony, that'd be throwing good money after bad. ("Wanna buy a piece of this fund to bail out Resorts A.C.? No? How about putting some more into Station? Why not?!?") The way it's compartmentalized, Colony can keep buying shiny new silos, no matter how many of its existing silos are crumbling into barkdust, so long as there are takers for its fund offerings. Leave the bad investments to their fate and better luck next time.

One might be pardoned for thinking Colony couldn't run a lemonade stand profitably, as the company's gaming-sector strategy seems to consist of throwing money against a wall over and over again until some of it comes back. One of the questions raised by the CityCenter discussions is: How much control would Colony get in return for its money? Given that MGM Mirage is setting aside shutdown capital for the project, Colony appears to hold the leverage. It'd be smart to leave MGM in the driver's seat -- and besides, Colony is no stranger to dealing itself into a position of weakness.

Then again, Colony may well be a stalking horse for Saudi mogul Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal, one of its business partners. He's got deep pockets and grandiose plans ... just the sort of fellow who might fancy being the monarch of CityCenter.

Speaking of the Fertitta Bros. ... the president of their pride and joy, the UFC, a charming fellow by the name of Dana White is making headlines and not in a particularly good way.

Those [expletive] UFC [expletive] board meetings [expletive] must be [expletive] really something [expletive] else, [expletive]. Wouldn't you [expletive] want to [expletive] be a [expletive] fly on the [expletive] [expletive] [expletive] wall, mother[expletive]?

Should Colony take a stake in CityCenter -- thereby dooming Viva -- perhaps the Fertittas can send Mr. White to Colony HQ as their good-will ambassador.

Case Bets: MGM Mirage, Harrah's, Wynn, Shuffle Master, Taxes

Tue, 17 Mar 2009 15:05:00 -0700

As we wait for the MGM Mirage earnings report, signs of desperation mount. If the company is willing to cast away a pearl like new, costly and high-yielding MGM Grand Detroit, what isn't sacred? Not even the corporate jet, provided the buyer doesn't welsh on the deal. (Guess those high rollers won't have to fly commercial for a while yet.) Whoever made that offer for MGM Detroit, though ... (s)he's one smart cookie, methinks.

Dumping regional properties at a time when that's where the strength of the casino industry is just doesn't make sense -- although you could probably make a case for ditching the already written-down Gold Strike in Tunica or the Grand Victoria riverboat in casino-killing Illinois. Actually, getting the hell out of the hellacious Illinois market seems like the best idea since forever.

Congratulations, Gary Loveman! You took home $39.6 million last year, while your company was crashing and burning -- not to mention pink-slipping 8% of your workforce. Don't say Loveman isn't feeling Harrah's pain: He's forfeiting a whole $100K in salary for 2009. There goes the college fund!

The casino giant is one step from the bottom of the Moody's bond-rating ladder. In a memo to the SEC, Harrah's Entertainment announced that managers were taking a 5% pay cut and that "it might have to delay expansion, sell assets or restructure debt." Delay expansion? No! Really? That was off the table the minute the ink was dry on the LBO. Refurbishment is also a low priority, as capex costs will be trimmed by as much as 59%.

Meantime, the guessing game begins over which assets might be on the block. In one of the busier threads over at Hunter Hillegas' Two Way Hard Three, fellow blogger Chuck Monster synopsizes the reshuffling of Harrah's properties between various holding companies, which includes a possible abandonment of the volatile (read: shaky) Lake Tahoe market. Sometimes I think Harrah's does this jiggery-pokery just to amuse itself watching the blogosphere try to determine What It Really Means.

In a regional update, most Lousiana markets were slightly down last month -- except Lake Charles, which Harrah's pulled out of, leaving Pinnacle Entertainment in possession of the field. Oops.

Pssst! Don't tell anyone! It's stashed as the second item of "In Brief" but Wynn Resorts is floating a stock offering to the tune of over nine million shares. (Other sources say seven million.) Wall Street had an understandably adverse reaction -- at first blush -- to this 7% dilution of Wynn stock, which closed up $1.07 today. Given that it's a proactive move to retire debt, it's tough to quarrel with Wynn.

Update: Clarification of the Wynn stock float comes by way of Forbes.

As for the undying speculation that Steve Wynn might want to buy back Bellagio or golden oldie The Mirage, one analyst -- Goldman Sachs' Steven Kent -- says he "would be surprised to see Wynn pursue this," given that Wynn is a builder, not a buyer.

Parenthetically, in the above-mentioned blog thread, Brian Fey makes the following, extremely trenchant observation: "Its pretty bad, that here we are almost 10 years later [following Wynn's ouster from Mirage Resorts], and Steve's biggest competition is still Steve's old properties. Just shows you how far behind everyone else is when it comes to the game."

Shuffle Master wins? Rival company Elixir Gaming settled litigation by selling its Asian shuffler business. The Las Vegas Review-Journal sees it as a win for Shuffle Master, while the Las Vegas Sun takes the opposite take, implying that Shuffle Master got its pockets picked -- which could mean an ignominous curtain for just-departed CEO Mark Yoseloff, if that's indeed the case. They report, you decide.

More of the Same Dept.: Democratic leadership in the Nevada Lege is going to do exactly what (little) is expected of them -- jack up existing taxes to onerous levels as a cop-out solution to our budgetary crisis. Booze and cigarettes are the low-hanging fruit of taxation but Nevada casinos better get ready to bend over and grab their ankles, as they're probably the next target of opportunity. Oh, and brace yourself for a much bigger beer-and-wine tab at the casinos if this goes through ... as though casino booze wasn't costly enough already!

Never let it be said that S&G didn't at least once have a kind word for Columbia Sussex. The former Tropicana owner is reducing its carbon footprint. Amen to that.

Case Bets: Bank shot, Sin City Express

Wed, 04 Mar 2009 15:37:00 -0700

In today's Movable Buffet, Richard Abowitz speculates on the possible evolution (devolution?) of Las Vegas from a boomtown built on junk bonds to critical-care patient who's a ward of the banks. To Abowitz's mention of the bank-owned Cosmopolitan, I would add the Hard Rock Hotel, Stratosphere, two Arizona Charlie's and the Las Vegas Hilton. The first is owned by DLJ Merchant Partners, most of the others by Goldman Sachs.

Goldman has but a minority stake in Colony Capital's LVH. However, it enjoys veto power over any capital expenditures. Which is as good an excuse as any (or none) to mention that on my last visit to the Hilton the volume on the slot machines had "gone to 11." If it was a clever ploy to create the subliminal impression that the casino was busier than it actually was, it worked.

"Sin City Express": That mag-lev train that's causing Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA) and others of his ilk to lose sleep is a real juggernaut, consisting of one unpaid retiree living on the west side of Vegas. (For the record, LV lifeline I-15 has undergone regular midweek closings this winter, to facilitate blasting, as well as one snow-induced shutdown.) At least Jindal's a smart guy just pretending to be dumb, not an out-and-moron like Rep. Trent Franks (R-AZ), who fantasizes high-speed rail from Disneyland to a Carson City brothel. Whatever turns you on, Congressman.

Case Bets: Taxes, Stratosphere, Riviera, Treasure Island

Wed, 04 Mar 2009 13:43:00 -0700

If you, like me, had hoped for a breather from bad news today, you hoped in vain. In no particular order ...

Faced with a collapsing state budget and a scorched-earth set of spending cuts proposed by Gov. Jim Gibbons, do state Democrats take an Obama-like, "Hard choices are upon us" stance? You're kidding me, right? No, they're seeking refuge in weaselly evasions that they can't make specific proposals because they don't know the exact number that they have to hit.

Will they take on the mining industry or propose the gross-receipts tax on non-casino businesses for which J. Terrence Lanni used to stump? Nope. Even though sales taxes are by nature regressive and both they and gaming revenue are spiraling downward, 60% of the state's eggs will continue to be put into that fraying basket. (The best analogy for this budgetary formula is that of CityLife's Steve Sebelius, who likens it to building a house on the slope of an active volcano.)

The rest of the non-solution, as propounded by Ways & Means chair Morse "Moose" Arberry (D) consists of More Of The Same: Just jack up each existing tax a teensy bit and maybe nobody will notice -- or at least squawk too loudly. The rationale, as explained by one budgetary sage, is that everybody takes it in the shorts (basically), sparing legislators from having to confront one or two particular interest groups. It also means that the increased -- they hope -- revenue starts rolling in on Jan. 1, 2010 ... whereupon the larger issue of Nevada's revenue structure can be safely palmed off on the 2011 Lege, absolving the current bunch of responsibility. Yup, sounds like a real winner.

So Nevadans and tourists alike can brace themselves for higher taxes on: alcohol, tobacco, live entertainment, insurance premiums, property transfers -- and casino revenues. Not to mention the hotel-room tax that's already sailing through. Heck, it seems the gambling industry dodged a credit-chilling acceleration of the tax on markers largely because Midnight Jim went off half-cocked. Gibbons' characteristic ineptitude is rarely a cause for relief but here's an exception to the rule.

As for the Buckley/Arberry proposition that the people who are already paying (you, me, the guy behind the tree) should pay more while the ones who aren't will continue to skate ... to say that it's disgraceful, inequitable and it stinks would be a gross understatement. It's a sad day when Jim Gibbons is your local Profile in Courage but there you have it.

J. Terrence Who? The unfortunate Mr. Lanni was a no-show at his Nevada Business Hall of Fame induction. Maybe, just maybe he's keeping a low profile because MGM Mirage is cracking under the strain of debt that was run up on his watch. Then again, this is a town that has no compunction about giving sentimental awards to mobbed-up old casino execs. But fudge one resumé and you're a non-person, buddy.

More 401-ks stopped. This time it's the Goldman Sachs-owned Stratosphere and both Arizona Charlie's, etc. Gosh sakes, yes, let's raise gaming taxes right this minute.

If a Strip casino were to close, the odds-on favorite would be the Riviera. It has shuttered all but one of its restaurants and has got to be worrying that a rumored six-month postponement of Fontainebleau could be the kiss of death. If that weren't enough, Wachovia Bank has decided to give the Riv a shove under the bus by insisting that -- according to Riviera Holdings President William Westerman (via PR Newswire) -- "Wachovia could gain access to all cash held in Riviera's bank accounts by merely advising the banks of a notice of default without first allowing us the opportunity to cure the default, no matter how trivial."

He adds that Wachovia's alleged brinksmanship has been going on since last Oct. 14. What luck: Of all the banks willing to help prop up the casino industry, Westerman has to deal with the one that decides to play hardball instead. When you consider that people were writing Westerman off 10 years ago, he's no stranger to facing long odds.

Ready for some good news? Cash-parched MGM Mirage is close to gaining some desperately needed liquidity now that the Nevada Gaming Control Board has OK'd Phil Ruffin's purchase of Treasure Island. Ruffin has enjoyed excellent luck with Nevada regulators. Like his New Frontier acquisition, this one went through like greased lightning. An exhaustive LVA profile of Ruffin found him always to be on the up and up. And unlike James Packer, he doesn't plan to fix what isn't broken.