aiverson
Posts: 4
Joined: Nov 2007
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7/27/09 7:22 AM
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Started making noise last NFL season on a larger scale. On Fox Sports Radio w/ Steve Czaban. That is what happens when you hit 67% for two straight years and win a Wagerline competition by hitting 89%. Brandon Lang wants to introduce me to Billy Walters.
I validated my plays for the first 9 weeks of the 2008 NFL season via email/messageboards and hit 23-9-2 (72%) in those plays. Then I started to charge $2/play. Not to rack up a bunch of money. Wanted to offset my time invested to the research/writeups that I share and to show that just because you win does not mean you need to charge $20+ per play. I finished the season 80-40-3 (67%) while also sharing my computer system totals plays in addition to my ATS plays (overs and unders combined for a 41-20-2 record). Looking to continue in 09 where I left off last season, with my computer program predicting a 4 point Steelers win in the SB (thus, plays would be to take Pit ML, Ari+7, Ari/Under teaser), 13 days before the game kicked off. 27-23 final.
I hear some guys saying they want to know how Fezzik thinks, and "why" he picks certain games. Well the truth is, he's not behaving any differently than most touts. Look at any number of them, most provide no writeup, just plays. Even the guys who do provide a writeup are, for the most part, just throwing out a few commonly known generalized trends that support their play. You won't learn much from that... If you want know "why" I like a certain game, go to my website, and review my plays/writeups from last year's documented plays starting around Week 4 when I got my format down for expressing my viewpoints. I'm not afraid to share "why" I play a certain game, as well as my research...
My unique approach to the sport of handicapping the NFL and nontraditional opinion of what a "tout" should be is likely to rub most who work in the industry the wrong way. But I could care less. I think they have been able to get bye with subpar results and over the top prices because there has not been strong enough challenge from someone who can produce much better results at a fraction (and I do mean fraction) of the cost. Hopefully I will continue to make noise with my results and if possible, revolutionize the tout world as we know it. (It will probably take another couple of successful seasons for people to really believe it is possible, even though my computer has hit 67% for 3 seasons running, even though I have fully documented my 89% in 2005 playoffs and my 72% from Weeks 1-9 last season, people are slow to believe and that is fine.) I do think that if this is the first you have heard the name "Sharp Football Analysis", you will be hearing it a lot more in the future.
The question is, does anyone believe it is possible besides me? If someone came in and was able to hit 60%+ with consistency and released an avg of 7 plays/wk in the NFL, charging just $15/wk (avg of $2/play), and actually shared insight into his thought process along the way, do you think the rest of the touts who charge $25 to $79 per play (12 to 40 times more) would have to take note and drop their prices? Or do you think "you cant teach an old dog new tricks" and the same clients will keep buying overpriced and underachieving plays because "Famous Guy" says hes been in the business for 20 years?
I think the majority of touts who get started either join a conglomerate where their prices are jacked up so that everyone can get a share, or they themselves start charging a high price tag because everyone else does and they get greedy. Thoughts?
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aiverson
Posts: 4
Joined: Nov 2007
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7/28/09 8:39 AM
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Quote
Originally posted by: cowboydan
"I validated my plays for the first 9 weeks of the 2008 NFL season via email/messageboards and hit 23-9-2 (72%) in those plays."
It should be routine to show us those.
And, of course, why not just keep your mouth shut, and reap the lavish rewards such feats would produce?
2008 Week 1 Plays
2008 Week 2 Plays (7-1 YTD)
2008 Week 3 Plays (11-1 YTD)
2008 Week 4 Plays (12-3 YTD)
2008 Week 5 Plays (14-4 YTD)
2008 Week 6 Plays (17-4 81% YTD)
2008 Week 7 Plays (18-6 75% YTD)
2008 Week 8 Plays (19-8 70% YTD)
2008 Week 9 Plays (21-8-2 72% YTD)
Each week is a different thread. Direct links to all threads are HERE
As for reaping the lavish rewards with my mouth shut, I've done so for years. I made a personal decision to focus on helping out others at the same time. The two are not mutually exclusive. This is why I charge approx $2/play. It's not as if I am pumping up a false record to earn my huge profit by touting plays for $20/play. I am sure that is what a lot of touts do.
On the contrary, my records are fully legitimate as is everything I posted above, (in addition to my comments about Lang/Walters - just listen to the mp3 from the show, posted on my site) and my foray into the world of selling plays is not for profit (as you might guess by only charging ~$2/play) but moreso to offset the personal time I invest on behalf of my clients. By reading my writeups/analysis (and if you ever paid for a week of plays, by reading my client page which is lengthy and chock full of information) you will see the amount of time I devote to sharing information is uncanny, and thus, takes up a large amount of my personal time, not for my benefit, but to help my clients.
That is in addition to the time spent actually handicapping games in order to produce winners at a 60%+ rate, which as you know, takes a ton of time in itself. I could save a lot of time by just telling people to take "Mia, SD and Hou" but how are they going to learn from that? I want to not only share winning plays, but share my thought process and analysis so that others can not only win, but can learn and apply it to their own handicapping, so that one day, they won't need to pay for winners, they can do it themselves. My goals are to maximize my client's bottom line, and I do that by winning at a high rate, charging as little as I believe I should, and teaching so that eventually my clients won't even have to pay my inexpensive rates.
Selling plays is not my sole source of income, far from it, so I have no need to profit to extremes. But as a smart business minded individual, I realize that if someone has winning plays and thoroughly researched information that they are willing to share on a routine basis with you for ridiculously low prices, it will be received. That said, again, I am not in this for profit, but to offset the time I personally invest in sharing well versed research, trends and analysis in addition to my computer program's plays.
I have very distinct goals in mind because a lot of the tout and sportsbook industry really gets under my skin... its been several years now and I finally have decided to do something more profound about it. Personally, I don't see how some touts can convince themselves that their plays are worth the price they charge, and in addition, if they really were "in it for their clients behalf", why they would charge so much to jeopardize their clients bottom line. Thus, as an individual, you must assume the touts are in it for themselves, so then the question remains, why would you pay them for their average plays? But people do it, which is why these touts are still in business. They cover their losses by grading plays on "Stars" or "Units" which is nothing more than a method to conceal true success. A win is a win, a loss is a loss, and should count just as much as a win. This prevents the inevitable late season rise in stars or units per play in order to get back in the black for these guys.
I would like nothing more than to see these average touts lose their business to someone like myself, who charges at least 1/10th (and oftentimes much less) their price, who wins much more frequently, who isn't afraid to share trends/logic/information/research with his clients, and who therefore allows clients to enjoy a much larger opportunity for profit.
My overriding goals can be found HERE.
If I can eventually help average guys win money consistently, and at the same time, avoid overpaying scamming touts and keep money out of the pockets of the sportsbooks and their ownership, I will have done my job. I could very easily choose to continue to sit back, count my winnings year in and year out, and eventually fade into my own personal happiness. Life is full of choices. I realized the rewards of helping people achieve their own sense of success and accomplishment, as well as the personal gratification of running a clean shop which has the potential to accomplish some of my other goals (above) is something I would love to achieve. Everyone has choices with everything they do, and in my shoes, you may choose another path. This is the path I have chosen, and it is a relatively recent personal decision to proceed in this direction.
The question (again) is does anyone think my desires are achievable? If I can sustain a high rate and if I continue to keep my prices dirt cheap, is there any chance that touts selling NFL plays for $20-$75/play (and oftentimes struggling to hit 55% cumulative) will have to reconsider their business models when their clientele is not as robust as is once was?
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