Dreamer
Posts: 5904
Joined: Apr 2004
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7/27/09 8:31 PM
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There are some areas I don't want to get into here but...........I will say this.
Correctly adjusting for HFA/HCA is one of the last uncharted waters for most sharp semi/sharp bettors.
Example.........
NBA HCA is worth 3.8 points.......... except it's almost NEVER 3.8 points...............
D.
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Cutter : "I believe 100% that dreamer is at worst 30% bullshit." "I like Dreamer and his big nuts."Fezzik : ' I won in 2001, No one was hurling stones at my handicapping back then..................wantitall4moi : "I gave them 0% chance to cover the opener of 9.5 that is why I bet Bears -9.5"
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Dreamer
Posts: 5904
Joined: Apr 2004
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7/29/09 9:58 AM
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Quote
Originally posted by: PerpetualCzech
Quote
Originally posted by: DreamerNBA HCA is worth 3.8 points.......... except it's almost NEVER 3.8 points...............
D.
Uh, methinks you might be exaggerating just a little ...
Methinks one of us knows what he is talking about.
The other hasn't looked into it deeply enough and is pulling his "methinks" out of his sphincter.
D.
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Cutter : "I believe 100% that dreamer is at worst 30% bullshit." "I like Dreamer and his big nuts."Fezzik : ' I won in 2001, No one was hurling stones at my handicapping back then..................wantitall4moi : "I gave them 0% chance to cover the opener of 9.5 that is why I bet Bears -9.5"
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Dreamer
Posts: 5904
Joined: Apr 2004
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7/29/09 11:09 AM
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Quote
Originally posted by: ComptrBob
Quote
Originally posted by: PerpetualCzech
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Originally posted by: DreamerNBA HCA is worth 3.8 points.......... except it's almost NEVER 3.8 points............... D.
Uh, methinks you might be exaggerating just a little ...
Looking at the Sagagin approximation for NBA home court advantage in history backward from 2008-9 , he has 3.78, 4.07, 3.20, 3.58, 3.28, 3.98 averaging 3.65 but with large variance.
Certainly seems to back up what Dreamer is saying.
Bob, I sent you a PM. Should explain everything.
D.
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Cutter : "I believe 100% that dreamer is at worst 30% bullshit." "I like Dreamer and his big nuts."Fezzik : ' I won in 2001, No one was hurling stones at my handicapping back then..................wantitall4moi : "I gave them 0% chance to cover the opener of 9.5 that is why I bet Bears -9.5"
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