Question of the Day — 13 Sep 2005

How high would the Megabucks progressive have to get to make it a break-even play? I realize exact figures are probably not available but that its approximate range could be estimated. Is it $20 million, $100 million, more? My guess is it never gets high enough to have positive expectation, but I would be curious as to approximately how high it would have to get.

Contributing expert John Robison writes:

According to the par sheet I have for the Megabucks game, there are 368 stops on each reel, giving a total of 49,836,032 combinations on the machine. Of those combinations, one consists of three Megabucks symbols -- the winning combination -- giving odds of about 1 in 50 million for hitting the big one.

Adding in all the other payouts on this machine, I calculate a breakeven point of about $28.5 million for this game. Other games in the Megabucks series are breakeven at a similar amount.

Out of interest, in Nevada Megabucks has only been hit twice above the break even point, first in January 2000 at the Desert Inn for $34,955,489.56 and then again in March 2003 for $39,710,826 at Excalibur. To date there have been 61 Megabucks jackpots under that total in this state.


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