Question of the Day — 7 Nov 2020

[Editor's Note: We could have asked a pit boss to answer this question, but we went instead to a card counter to get his perspective on being picked off by the casinos. Colin Jones is the author of our book 21st Century Card Counter and one of the most knowledgeable blackjack players we know. He founded and managed a big blackjack team, then developed a blackjack-training website, BlackjackApprenticeship.com, and leads intensive Blackjack Bootcamp workshops. He's experienced heat and been backed off and barred by casinos all over the country. Here's what he has to say about the why and how.]

The beauty of card counting is that it's a system based on mathematical principles. Play according to the system, bet in a way that takes advantage of the system, and you make money (over the long haul, of course). Unfortunately, this also means that the casinos can figure out if you're playing and betting according to that same system.

That being said, here are the four most common ways I've seen casinos identify players.

1. Databases. It's become more common, as the first line of defense, for casinos to look up a player in a database (primarily SIN or OSN). If they see you winning, betting big, or fluctuating bets, a casino often asks for a players card or ID, so they can see if you're a known undesirable ... aka "not a sucker." They might do this before ever watching your playing decisions or anything else: "Let's just check the database to see if he's in there."
2. If someone looks like he or she is counting cards. To me, this is the classic case of a casino cutting off its nose to spite its face. I've known plenty of wannabe card counters or straight-up gamblers who have been backed off because the casino thinks they're a threat, even if they aren't. I once met a gambler with six figures worth of losses over several years of poor "card counting," but plenty of casinos had backed him off simply because the guy was trying to count. It might be that a guy is just winning too much and the casino panics.
3. Analyzing your play in real time. If a casino suspects you of card counting, it may deploy a pit boss or surveillance operator to watch you. If you play properly and change your bets along with the count (by counting along with you or running your play through counter-catcher software), they'll then determine if they want your play or not. Remember, if you can play with an advantage based on observable information, the casino can observe that same information to decide if you're playing with an advantage.
4. Analyzing your play after the fact. Sometimes a casino reviews a player after he's left, especially if you hit them for a big score. I've heard of casinos that analyze any player who won over $5,000, $10,000, or $20,000. I've had plenty of times when I got out without a backoff on a winning session, only to be turned away on my next visit.

This is all part of the cat-and-mouse game. In my book, I talk about forms of "costly" camouflage and "free" camouflage to try to avoid casino detection. But at the end of the day, casinos don't want winners, so dealing with backoffs just comes with being a profitable player.