October, 2016

Using Math to Choose a VP Play – Part 3

In this series I have been giving examples showing how to figure the basic math calculations and then how to add some easy-to-figure extras, like multiple-point bonuses, to increase the value of a play. There are other valuable extras but many of them are more complicated to figure out.   (Notice I round down my figures, a “safer” more conservative action for the great majority of players.)

Let’s talk about bounce-back (BB) benefits. This is an extremely complicated benefit that I covered in detail back in my September 13 blog titled “Not So Simple.” I suggest you go back and read that if you want to review the many problems you will encounter in trying to maximize this benefit.

However, IF you know or at least can fairly accurately estimate, perhaps based on past experience with a particular casino, how much BB you will get for playing a certain amount, then here is how you can figure how much this benefit will add to your total play. Take the BB amount and divide it by the coin-in (CI) amount you have to play in order to get that. And if your grade school arithmetic is rusty, here is my simple rule for people who are scared of math: divide the little number by the big number!

Example: you find a miracle situation where you have to play only $10,000 a week in order to get $50 BB each week. Okay, divide the $50 bounce-back amount (the little number) by the $10,000 coin-in amount (the big number). It’s okay to use your calculator! You will get .005. You do have to remember how to change a decimal into a % – I’ll help you out here: Move the decimal point two places to the right – and you now have .5% which you can add to your other figures, like this:

99.5% – JoB 9/6 – the game you want to play

.1% – the basic players club point value where you want to play

.5% – the value of the BB

100.1% – the positive total of the whole play

To give a more realistic example, you are more likely to get $25 a week for this same coin-in and the best game might be 8/5 Bonus:

99.1% – 8/5 Bonus

.1% – Club points

.2% – BB

99.4% – Total value of play

This formula can be used for any benefit IF you know exactly the value of the benefit and how much play it takes to get it. Let’s take comps, for example. You can substitute comp value for the BB amount in the above examples. However, how comps are valued depends on personal factors. A $50 food coupon for a steak house may be worth only $25 to those who prefer to eat at less expensive restaurants.

In fact most other benefits are not one-size-fits-all when you are trying to figure out the mathematical value. They depend so much on personal factors like bankroll considerations, individual goals, and time scheduling. And often you don’t have enough exact details of a possible benefit, like the number of people you are up against in a tournament or how many entries are in a drawing. Then it becomes guesstimation instead of exact math.

This is the end of this series, since my goal was to cover only the basics. However, I have written at length about how to maximize your use of extra benefits in my books, especially in More Frugal Gambling and Frugal Video Poker. Although both of these books, and also Frugal 1, were written some years ago and obviously contain some outdated material, they still have enough valuable information that if someone hasn’t read them, they might be a worthwhile purchase, especially since they can be ordered at shopLVA  at a very frugal discounted price.

Using Math to Choose a VP Play – Part 2

Last week I gave examples of the basics – game EV + players club base points. However, that is rarely the end of the calculations for a wise player. Our financial success over the last 30+ years is largely due to the “extras” we add to that base.

Let’s talk about one of my favorite extras: multiple -point promotions. This is probably the easiest way to cut your losses and even gain an edge over the casino – and it is one of the most frequent promotions in Las Vegas and in other areas where there are multiple casinos competing for your business.

Using Math to Choose a VP Play – Part 1

I promised to give you examples and now I am going to do that. However, first I must emphasize that I am not saying math is the only factor you might want to consider when deciding when or where to play VP. Math is the main factor I consider, but you may have different goals that I do. You may put more emphasis on entertainment value, convenient locations, suitable scheduling – various other personal factors. I’m not here to judge your choices.

However, for everyone, knowing the math is the best place to START in looking for a new play or re-evaluating an old play that might have changed. Once you know the mathematical expected value (the EV) of a play or a group of possible plays, you will know how much money it will cost you to deviate from the mathematical “best” play.  Then you can make a knowledgeable decision if your reason for deviating is worth that much to you.

Let me give you a simple example. Let’s say you have the choice to play at two casinos: Casino A is two miles from your house and Casino B is 8 miles from your house. Let’s say the best game at Casino A is 8/5 Bonus (EV 99.1%); the best one at Casino B is NSUD (EV 99.7%).

MORE OCTOBER PROMOS

First an explanation about the Gold Coast promotion I mentioned in the last blog entry:  Tuesday 6x points is only for those players that receive monthly mailers.  This is a case in point that I have discussed many times.  Boyd properties – and sometimes other multi-casino companies – do not always run the same promotions company-wide.  You need to check your individual mailer and/or casino-specific websites.

GOOD RESOURCES

Discount show tickets

Good article about earning table game comps.

 

CZR PROPERTIES

Earn 2017 tier points in 2016!

Get a jump start on maintaining your Tier Status for another year. For every 500 Tier Credits you earn between October 1 and December 31, we will give you a 100 Tier Credit bonus for 2017. Make sure to opt-in and that we have your email address to be eligible for this bonus. 

OCTOBER VEGAS PROMOTION NEWS

Actually today’s entry is really just a short detour from the subject I have been concentrating on for several weeks and plan to continue – that is, how to figure the value of players club points.  Before you can figure the worth of a promotion, you need to know the base numbers on which you add the promotion numbers.

In my last entry, I talked about using vpFREE2 to find the EV and location of a game and also the players club point percentage.  I also warned that casinos change so much that this is only the beginning for your research, that you always have to double-check info with eyes-on scouting. Some players did that and found that the Spin Poker I mentioned at Silver Sevens, with the 10/7 Double Bonus, was gone.  They also found out that machines that contained 8/5 Bonus Poker didn’t qualify for point multipliers.  Fortunately they reported this and vpFREE2 updated the database. I strongly encourage this reporting; the more players who submit new information, the more helpful that resource will be. 

 

BOYD PROPERTIES (The Orleans, Gold Coast, Suncoast, and Sam’s Town, and sometimes their downtown properties.)

I constantly drum on the warning to always read the fine print – and this is always especially important when you are checking on Boyd properties since they often vary promotions from one casino to another.