May 5, 2000
A question from one of my readers: “I’m in a terrible losing streak. What’s the longest losing streak you’ve ever had?”
Good question! People sometimes think Brad and I win all the time; they think anyone who writes a gambling book or articles about video poker must be an expert, and a gambling expert must know how to win. Well, that’s right and wrong. We ARE winners. The bottom line is that we win more than we lose over the years.
However, when I looked through the gambling logs we keep for each year (our IRS evidence), I found that since l997, we’ve had at least one losing video poker quarter (three-month period) per year, and sometimes two. Although you’ll lose, on average, in two video poker sessions out of three, a losing quarter is three months of play with A LOT more losing sessions than winning ones.
What’s more, right now we’re in the worst losing streak in our 17 years of gambling. We’ve had three losing quarters in a row. We’re also working on number four — if this present one doesn’t turn around fast! And this is for playing nothing but 100+% video poker schedules.
Obviously, this losing streak is not nearly as much fun as our winning streaks of the past. But we try to take it stoically, knowing we’re still “ahead of the game” over the long run. We know that the longer we play, the closer we’ll come to the statistical win that can be achieved by choosing the right games and playing the right strategies.
There is one factor that mitigates the pain of a long losing streak. Cashback! There have been many times when slot club benefits, promotional bonuses, and mailed coupons have made up for a big percentage of our video poker losses or even completely wiped out the red ink on the ledgers.
Also, we no longer even count the value of comps. We consider our free rooms, meals, and extras gravy, but if we did factor them into the win-loss equation, we would never have a very long losing streak.
When I’m trying to convince someone to switch to positive-expectation games, I like to say, “You can’t beat the math; if you play long enough on the negative games and you’ll lose over the long run.” Brad and I turn this around and comfort each other when we’re in a bad losing streak, “When you play positive games correctly, you’ll win over the long term.”
In negative-expectation games, math is your enemy. In positive-expectation games, math is your friend. Because we play only positive expectation games, math is our friend. But it can be an exasperating friend, because it can be so patient and work so slowly!
Briefs
I’m constantly amazed that there are casino customers who can think up tricks that are more frugal than mine, even though Brad often calls me the Queen of Cheap. I love these new ideas. The latest, from the ever-inventive group on Skip’s VP (http://www.video-poker.com) is for those of you who order bottles of water and want to take them home, but the cocktail waitress removes the cap. No problem. Simply tuck a couple of extra caps in your pocket or purse before you go casino-hopping!
Last week I mentioned some of the resources I think are valuable for planning your Vegas trip. Another one is the website of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, the morning daily newspaper. I use it heavily when I’m not in town and don’t have it delivered to my door each morning. An especially good section is Neon, the Las Vegas Guide to Entertainment, which comes out every Friday. You’ll find it at http://www.lvrj.com/lvrj_home/neon/. It has reviews (including price, time, phone numbers, etc.) on shows, restaurants, buffets, coming attractions, and recreational listings. Always check out The Player’s Edge, by Jeff Compton and Bob Dancer, which gives the latest scoop on slot clubs, promotions, and bonus-point days.
Until next week, ponder this: A popular item for vending machines in casino bathrooms is aspirin.
May 5, 2000
Editor’s Note: Jean Scott has been busy shooting a segment for “Dateline.” She worked hard (for what will be about five minutes of air time), so we granted her a day’s delay on her Frugal Friday’s piece. We’ll post it by Saturday. In the meantime, here’s a little peek into what went on with “Dateline.”
The entire shoot took two full days. Jean and Brad took the “Dateline” crew, including anchor Bob McKeown, around Las Vegas, following a five-hour opening stint and interview at their condo. Jean described it as “the most extensive shoot we have ever been involved with—it made “48 Hours” seem like the local news in a very small city! The four camera-crew guys had 38 pieces of luggage on the airplane!”
During the casino shoots, all the action was authentic (nothing staged for the camera). First stop was the Hard Rock, then the Venetian, and finally the Fiesta.
One amazing thing happened. Jean was coaching Bob McKeown on a 9/6 jacks or better $5 Triple Play video poker machine (the best game at the Venetian). He was playing with $1,000 of NBC’s money (and her slot club card–of course!). That’s $75 a hand. They were dealt 9h 9c, 8c, 6c, and 5c. Bob saw the pair of nines and wanted to hold them. Jean pointed out the 4-card straight flush and explained that it had a higher expected value, even though it was a long-shot. Conceding that they were likely to lose $75 on the play, Bob held the inside SF and hit the button.
He pulled a flush on the bottom line, zilch on the top line, and the 7C on the middle line. The hand paid $1,400. Amazing.
Final cash-out: $1,650 winners (which went to charity)—and on national television, no less.
We’ll tell you more later. Stay tuned.
May 16, 2000
Mother’s Day is this Sunday and a quick look at my casino-promotions calendar tells me that Hallmark isn’t the only company that expects to cash in on this holiday. Actually, casinos key promotions to any holiday that comes along: candy for bonus hands on Valentine’s Day, free green beer on St. Patrick’s Day; turkey drawings on Thanksgiving, and extra payouts for four-of-a-kind kings on Father’s Day, four fives on Cinco De Mayo, and, of course, a four queens on Mother’s Day.
Although holiday times often see higher airfares, the casinos sponsor such strong holiday promotions that they should influence your trip planning. We especially like the bonus slot club points many Las Vegas casinos give on holidays. The Coast properties (Orleans, Gold Coast, Barbary Coast, and, most likely, the soon-to-open Sun Coast) usually award triple points on holidays. (If you want to find us on a holiday when we’re in Las Vegas, check at the Orleans!) Cashback of .6% (instead of .2%) on top of 100%+ games is a strong draw. Playing 600 hands an hour at full coin on a dollar video poker machine, the bonus averages out to $18 an hour ($3,000 through the machine an hour X .006) for each of us — even if we only break even on the game itself. Brad and I usually play side by side and we think $36 an hour is good “pay” for having fun together on a holiday!
Speaking of slot clubs, here are a few reasons for getting a slot club card the very first time you enter a particular casino — even if you aren’t planing to play at that casino at that time.
• You might unexpectedly come upon a “must-play” machine, for example, a high progressive, that you want to grab and play immediately. Or you might have an unexpected wait — at a restaurant, to see a show, or waiting for a late friend to show up.
• Sometimes by just showing your card you get discounts on shows, in restaurants, or for rooms.
• Sometimes there’s a special (shorter) line for cardholders.
• Some casinos send out free or discounted offers (rooms, shows, food) to everyone in their database, regardless of the level of play — or lack thereof. Brad and I have received great offers (like a room for three nights) from casinos where we’ve never dropped a nickel in a machine, but did sign up for the slot club one time.
• Some casinos have a special room-reservation phone line for slot club members. You won’t get a free room if you show no play, but you might get the casino rate. Or you might snare a room when the regular reservation agent claims the hotel is “full.” This works best if you give them a good reason why you didn’t play when you applied for the card: You were meeting friends at a restaurant there and were on a tight schedule, for example, but you liked the casino, planned to come back, and, of course, you will play there this trip!
Briefs
I feel honored. Last Sunday (May 6), there was a fairly long write-up in the gossipy “Norm! — Vegas Confidential” column in the Las Vegas Review-Journal about the Queen of Comps and the “Dateline” shoot.
From The Dealers News: When the MGM Grand opened in 1993, it took 12
armored cars two full days to fill all their quarter slot and video poker machines with $3.5 million worth of quarters.
The Four Queens is running ads in the local newspaper touting the new
change to their slot club: Equal Pay for Video Poker Play. Sounds like a good premise: Video poker players will no longer earn fewer points for their play than slot players. I’ve written passionately in Frugal Fridays about the fact that slot club changes NEVER benefit me. I’ll check this one out and report back; with any luck I might have to finally modify that statement.
From the I-Didn’t-Know-That Department: Anthony Curtis, in a recent newspaper story in the Review-Journal about blackjack, talked about the casino’s right to eject, or “86” card counters. He explained that the phrase “to 86” someone came from the frontier days when saloons served 100-proof
May 19, 2000
By the time you read this, Brad and I will be back in Indianapolis. After nearly seven months in Las Vegas, we’re taking a well-deserved vacation—at home! Someone just gave us a photo-journalism book called Vegas—The Success of Excess. That’s the way we feel a lot of the time. We love Las Vegas, but it is such an intense lifestyle for us. Although Indianapolis is not the backwater town they used to make fun of with the nickname “Indy-no-place,” it’s a much quieter life.
Of course, we won’t exactly be idle. Brad will replace the condo carpeting and install new kitchen cabinets and counters, and I’ll do some serious work on the sequel to The Frugal Gambler, the book I’ve promised to so many for so long.
Update
A couple of weeks ago, I discussed the coin-out system on which the Coast properties (Gold Coast, Barbary Coast, and the Orleans) award their slot club points. Some don’t like the system, even though they understand the long-term advantage to those who play positive games. They feel it’s a double-whammy when they have a losing session: losing at the game and getting fewer slot club points to boot.
A good Internet friend of mine sent me the following post, which shows the math that perhaps will keep you from worrying needlessly whether a slot club bases its award system on coin-in or coin-out.
“The only reason I don’t like the coin-out system is that it’s harder to make sure you’re getting the proper amount of points credited by the machine.
“But you really shouldn’t be that concerned about dry spells and being penalized during losing sessions. There isn’t that much difference. For example, say you play six hours of 25¢ full-pay deuces wild and you average 600 hands per hour. You’d have put $4,500 through the machine. At $1 equals one point, you’d have earned 4,500 points with a coin-in system.
“Now, let’s assume you didn’t hit quad deuces or a royal, and you lost about $40 an hour, which is about your expected average loss. With in a coin-out system, you would only be penalized six (hours) times 40 (points), or 240 points altogether. You’d still have earned 4,260 points for the session.
“Not the major calamity that people seem to have in mind for losing sessions using a coin-out system.”
Briefs
From The Dealer’s News: The $5,000 chips at Bellagio are red, white, and blue and are called “flags.”
If you see a red light flashing at the top of the Mirage volcano, you know that there will not be any eruptions until the light goes off, usually the next evening. Sometimes the eruptions are postponed due to technical difficulties, but usually it’s the result of bad weather, often the high winds that Las Vegas is notorious for.
From the It-Really-Happened Department: A novice video poker player was dealt three queens. She turned to her friend who was helping her learn, and asked, “This is a jacks or better machine, so should I just hold two queens? It’s a winning hand. Is it fair to try for more?”
May 28, 2000
Just because we aren’t in Vegas doesn’t mean we’re taking a vacation from casinos. I’m writing this in the Joliet Empress Hotel, looking across the large parking lot to the Empress I + II, two boats that never sail — at least not for the foreseeable future. Illinois has changed its gambling rules so that casino riverboats do not have to actually leave the dock. This reminds me of a puzzle that I just can’t figure out: Why is gambling more “moral” on the water than on land? Mississippi is a wonderful example. There you don’t have to even see the water, such as being docked on a river or bay as is the rule in Illinois, Missouri, and elsewhere. In Mississippi, you can build your casino on dry land as long as there are inlets underground!
Briefs
Afternoon shows in Las Vegas are a terrific bargain and give you a lot of entertainment value for a small ticket price. Check out the freebie magazines for coupons. There are several good little shows that you can see for the price of one drink. If you’re on a tight budget, but want to go to a show in the evening, go to a comedy club; they’re much cheaper than production or headliner shows.
Best name for a show I’ve heard in a long time: “Work That Skirt” — a music and dance jitterbug celebration at the Reno Hilton.
The Michael Jackson impersonator in “Splash” at the Riviera is a semipro football player in his leisure time.
Don’t judge whether you played a video poker hand correctly by the results on any one play. Correct strategy will give you the best results over the long haul, but it may not “turn out right” on EACH hand. Sure, on jacks or better I have “correctly” kept a high pair over three to a royal — and the two cards needed to complete the royal came up as the first two cards on the redraw. That’s why I play fast and never waste time stewing over what might have been. I keep playing — with no “what-if” mind games. That way I’ll get to the long haul faster!
Never pay for a bus trip from Vegas to Laughlin, Primm at the state line, Mesquite. There’s often a coupon for a free trip in your travel agent package. Or, look in the Yellow Pages and freebie magazines for ads that list complimentary trips. Most of these free trips include not only the round-trip bus transportation, but funbooks and often a free buffet. The age requirement is almost always 21, but occasionally younger people will be allowed on the trip if they pay their way. And remember, there’s no requirement that you gamble, although the host casino is hoping that you do! You could take a riverboat ride in Laughlin, or shop at the Outlet Mall in Primm, or play golf in Mesquite.
And finally, the Casino Logo Jacket Report from Brad! He reports that he has 20 at our condo in Las Vegas, 16 at our condo in Indianapolis, for a grand total (drum roll, please) of 36 casino logo jackets, every one of them won in a promotion.
(Casino Logo Jacket Threat from Jean: A minimum of 10 are going to Goodwill!)