I just transferred 15 years of gambling records (from 1997 to 2011) from a stack of yearly hard-copy DayMinders to an Excel spreadsheet. I’ve been aiming to do that for years, but getting a new computer – and learning how to use Excel – finally gave me the extra motivation I needed. (I have records clear back to our first Vegas vacation in 1984 but they aren’t as comprehensive before 1997, when I switched to a more detailed record-keeping format that I still use.
I thought it might be interesting to show our real-life example of how advantage VP has run for us in the long term. Our totals are made up of two elements. The first is actual gambling wins/losses, mostly video poker play but some table games and slots, almost always with a coupon or a special promotion. It also includes some occasional sports betting, about the only gambling we have done without an advantage over the house.
The second element in the totals – and the biggest one by far – is the “extras” we get from casinos. We count only actual cash and cash-equivalents, i.e., free play, gift cards, tournament and drawing wins. Although comps add immensely to the value of our play and give us a lifestyle beyond what we ever could have imagined, we do not count them in these totals.
So that this report might be meaningful to a wide range of players, I have given all our numbers, not in dollars but in “matchsticks,” Brad’s favorite way of keeping track, especially when we are losing! 🙂 For a quarter player, count each “matchstick” as a quarter unit. If you are a dollar player, take each unit figure times 4. If you are a $5 player, multiply by 20. If you play at various denominations, you’ll have to do some averaging.
Here is our 15-year report:
14 years – we showed an end-of-year win
1 year – we showed an end-of-year loss of 4,073 units (2002)
4 years -we ended up with an over-25,000-unit win (surprisingly the last one in 2011)
Best year – 69,085-unit win (thank you, Caesars, for that monster tournament win)
Total win for 15 years – 298,095 units
Average win per year over 15 years – 19,873 units
We are in a particularly long and dry losing spell so far in 2012. It helps us to look back at the long term. And then continue with the same strict guidelines we have followed in the past, choosing plays where we have an advantage, and the bigger that advantage the better!
Thanks for being so open with your records.
Regardless of the wins/losses, I think the overall message is the importance of keeping accurate records for those that strive to be an advantage player.
The unspoken aspect is that Jean is playing MUCH more inherently negative EV VP than she did in her early Frugal days. She plays at Caesar’s properties, etc. where the best plays are things like 8/5 Bonus, calculating that the value of the resultant freebies will propel the play back into positive territory. The trouble is, even if such plays ARE +EV, they have drastically higher variance than the olden days of pumping dollars into a FPDW single-line machine. The goodies you get may vary dramatically (we ALL know that there’s a weak correlation, at best, between your play and what the casinos send you), or your +EV may lie in drawings and such where you more often than not win nothing at all. It doesn’t take much of this to send a given year into a death spiral. The difference between Jean’s current methods and classic “Frugal” strategies is that now, she accepts a certain degree of inevitable loss going in. While this loss may be recompensated in the long run, it makes for a bumpy ride in the short run. I’m sure Jean is well bankrolled. But there’s still an element of luck involved, in that if she had had years like this in, say, 1995 and 1996, she might have gone bust and/or given up. We’ve all been there to some extent, and all I could advise anyone would be to, these days at least, minimize variance even at the expense of EV.
I have known both of you for over 15 years. You never fail to amaze me with both your knowledge and your desire to learn more and become better at what you do.
Amazing analysis. Even more amazing is the FCT that you tackled the task of mastering excel and did it do well
Jean,
Thank you for your open book policy. You have enlightened me to advantage VP play since the Skip Hughes Group. I will NEVER be the full time Advantage player, but my trips will always be less costly due to your advice and help.
JJC
I was always told growing up this antedote. One can afford to gamble, if they could throw their money out the car window while driving and not turn around to retrieve it.
Having worked with computers since 1982 I naturally chose to use a spreadsheet almost from the beginning of my gambling career(1990). Over the years my data collection methods changed as my experience with spreadsheets grew.
These days I use a general ledger type system, then use the aggregation/categorization tools provided by the spreadsheet. I record free play, gift cards, cash back, machine result as separate types. That way I can see how each source contributes to the total result. When I really want a nicely summarized report, I export the data to an SQL database then write some fairly simple SQL to produce the summary any which way I fancy.
Unfortunately one piece of data that I didn’t collect faithfully until the last couple of years, was action for each session. I sure wish I had that number for every session.
One thing that truly amazes me is the number of “units” I’ve lost playing those games that are negative (excluding any/all benefits) such as Jacks 9/6, NSUD, etc.
I enjoy most of all looking at a graph of my net profit that is tracked by session. It is so easy to see the swings and also the inexorable upward trend. I enthusiastically encourage all gamblers to look at the graph of their long term results when they’re experience a temporary drought.
G’luck all,
Gamb00ler
Obviously, the key figure you’ve not revealed is the multiplier you and Brad use. If it’s $5.00, which I suspect it is, at least over the last ten years, then you’ve done quite well! Sorry that I can’t say the same. I’ve had some good rolls and some bad. For your readers, most of my “bad rolls” have been at Harrah’s. Seems that I can get the big wins at other casinos playing minimal time, but I tend to give most of it back at Harrah’s. My casino host is probably embarassed by the fact, but that’s the way it goes. I still get good free play, etc. at Harrah’s, which does make a big difference.