Recently, a poster on the vpFREE forum discussed his belief about casino promotions and that they were geared to make gamblers lose more. And then he asked, “Doesn’t everyone think so?”
At first, I thought this person was all wrong So I started writing the following: No, I don’t think this way and neither does any wise advantage player. Here is what I do: I evaluate a play by adding the EV of the game to all the extra benefits, including slot club points, free play, and promotions. (Some people add the value of comps, which is fine in many cases, but our personal choice is not count them, only cash or cash-equivalent benefits. We consider them “gravy.”) This total must be over 100% in order for us to play. Most games are now under 100% and you MUST use promotions/extra benefits to find a good play.
However, I stopped writing there and started thinking about how some people might get in trouble even if they always choose 100%+ games. Perhaps they might be lured into a promotion that involves too great a risk because they would be required to play at a higher denomination than their bankroll can support. In fact that is overwhelmingly the reason why many advantage players go broke. “Taking a shot” – and I think this is what this person is talking about – is a very dangerous action.
Why?
The worst thing that could happen is for the person to “get lucky” and hit big on that “shot.” I’ve known quarter players who decided to go up to dollars “just this once.” They hit a 4k royal and are walking on air. Instead of adding that four thousand to their tiny bankroll – which was really even too small to be secure in playing quarters – and being happy that they now can play quarters a long time even if they go through long losing streaks – which they definitely will – they feel “rich” and continue playing dollars or even decide to “take a shot” on the five-dollar machines. (Sorry about that run-on sentence but I am writing just like I talk when I feel strongly about a subject!) You know the end of that story 99.999% of the time. Sometimes the “crash” doesn’t come right away, but it will come sooner or later – and in many cases the sad end comes within an hour or so. Going on tilt almost never turns out well!
Two important building blocks for successful video poker play – perhaps the most important two – are intense discipline and a strong bankroll. I think perhaps I need to talk about these in more detail in future blog entries.
Of course they want you to gamble back your winnings BUT use self control. The few times I have won big I take half of it and put it aside and play only with the other half. I have even gone so far as going to a bank and mailing a cashiers check home.
Nothing worst than winning big and then going home a loser.
Boy,,,you hit the nail right on the head!!..Been there done that….!!!
Jean, I believe you’ve overlooked one other approach, which substantiates what the blogger may have been insinuating, and that is, most all “offers” are intended to GET YOU BACK IN THE CASINO! I’ll give you a specific example, which could have turned out much differently….which it did for many:
A number of years ago I won an evening drawing at H….’s” in March, which gave me on entry into a May drawing for one of three prizes – a Hummer, a trip to Australia, or $5,000 cash. It appeared that only three people per day would be entered, so the odds appeared great. Only 270 or so entries. The wife does not like Vegas, but I talked her into going. When we arrived, we realized that the “hopper” was chock full of entries. The casino had opened up the entries to one for every “x” amount of points a player had accululated during those three months! The wife was furious, but we filled out 67 entries by hand and put them in the hopper. That evening, with my wife still poopooing the whole thing, my name was the first drawn. I ended up winning the $5,000 cash. She cried for an hour. HOWEVER, the bottom line is, everyone of us was lured back to this casino in the hopes of being a winner in the drawing. But we all, know that we would be gambling and in many cases losing, all the while we were there, whether or not we won anything in the drawing. So, the casino, I’m certain, got their investment back many times over, from the looses the customers experienced while hoping they would be a winner.
Actually, the hidden cost of ANY promotion is opportunity cost. When you play a promotion, its actual worth is its net value minus the value (to you) of the time spent to take advantage of it. A promotion that gave you $50 just for sticking your head in the door still wouldn’t be worth $50–it would be worth $50 minus gas minus wear and tear on your car minus the value of your time. And if it takes one hour of play? Net value, even less. Suppose that one hour of play must be on -EV machines? Less yet.
A seemingly lucrative promotion can actually be a losing play if you factor in “overhead”; even if you would only hypothetically compensate yourself at minimum wage for your time, the net effect could still easily be -EV, as anyone who has driven across town and stood in line at a slot club in order to jump on a promo can attest.
The guy who posted on VpFree wasn’t wrong when he opined that casino promotions are intended to make gamblers lose more. But then, +EV players aren’t gamblers, so the fact that such players turn the tables on the casinos and make casinos’ promtions net money losers is neither here not there.