7/2/2004
It’s always good to break a record and on June 13, Brad and I achieved a personal best in one gambling day: a net win of $20,235. And the surprising part is that we did it in a casino activity that is not our area of expertise: a blackjack tournament.
First, I should probably explain that Brad and I always play side-by-side whenever possible and we always work out of one gambling bankroll. Although we have very different personalities, for twenty years we’ve always been “one” when we’re in a casino. (Brad, as we arthritically limp around and forget more than we remember these days, says that it now takes the two of us to make one whole person!) Anyway, we always rejoice together when we have a winning day, no matter who actually earned the profit.
We’ve each had some outstanding lucky strikes. Twice I’ ve been dealt a royal on $1 Triple Play for $12,000, but we didn’ t manage to take it all home. Brad once got two $8,000 royals and three $1,600 jackpots in one day, but my machine burned up a big chunk of it. The day I won a car plus $3,000 in a Stardust drawing, the net profit after selling the car back to the dealer left us only about $16,000 in actual cash in our pockets — although the publicity has been never-ending. We won a slot tournament at the Hard Rock several years ago, but we were partnered with a couple of other people, so we netted only $10,000 from the $20,000 first prize. We rarely play $5 machines, but once Brad hit a $20,000 royal on one, a jackpot that mostly just dug us out of a deep hole.
Today, it was my turn to have a lucky big hit, although Brad contributed by winning at VP while we were waiting between my BJ tournament playing sessions. Ordinarily, I turn tournament duty over to Brad. I’m bored to death pounding away at slot tournaments and I get very frustrated in blackjack tournaments. But because there’s a possibility I may participate in an upcoming televised BJ tourney, I decided I better get in some practice, so I wouldn’ t be as likely to make some really dumb mistakes with potentially millions of people watching me.
This tournament was an invitational at the Rio, just a couple of streets from our home. I had to be one of the top two scores at my table during the first two rounds in order to advance to the semi-finals. I then had to beat everyone at that table in the 3rd round to get to the fourth round and reach the final table to be assured of at least a $750 payoff. Two hundred and twenty-seven other people were trying to do the same thing — reach that #1 spot that paid $20,000.
I find BJ tournaments the hardest gambling I ever do. For one thing, I’m inexperienced; I haven’ t played in them that much, and none for the last year or two. But my biggest handicap is that I’m not a math person and I just can’ t calculate numbers quickly in my head — and you can’ t have a pencil and paper handy to take notes! I do know BJ basic strategy and I know how to count cards, though with no practice for a decade, those skills are pretty rusty. However, I also know that the skills used in a regular BJ game aren’t really the ones I need anyway. It’s all about sizing your bets properly. And my “well-his-stack-of-chips-isn’ t-quite-as-big-as-mine” guesses aren’t nearly as precise as I want and need them to be.
Fortunately for me, a BJ tournament is a short-term gambling event — this one was only 25 hands and luck played a huge part. Some players didn’ t seem to know even the basics of tournament play and were either over-aggressive and busted out early or were too cautious to put out big bets when that was their only chance of advancing. That was lucky for me, since it left fewer players to beat.
And then there was pure luck: I mostly stick with minimum bets until the last few hands, with just one or two very large bets in the middle of the game. I won almost all of my big bets. Twice I had all my chips in the circle on double-down hands, one step from being out in the cold, and both
7/9/2004
During the last week in June, the Las Vegas Advisor ran a poll at its Web site to determine voters’ favorite buffets. The LVA Web site, www.lasvegasadvisor.com, runs a poll every few days or so and they generally attract between 400 and 700 votes. But the buffet poll garnered nearly 3,000 responses, which makes it the largest sampling of people’s buffet preferences since I’ve been on the scene (two decades).
The list included more than 33 Las Vegas buffets – everything from the Aladdin to the Venetian. A note here: The Venetian, I assume, was included as a sort of trick or control, since it doesn’t have a buffet! The Venetian got one vote. Why? Perhaps someone voted for it as a joke. Or perhaps someone confused it with another buffet. The buffets at Monte Carlo and Arizona Charlie’s Decatur also garnered a single tick, which might or might not mean that neither of these two buffets is better than no buffet at all!!
Anyway, I was fascinated to see that the four most popular buffets in Buffet City were also the most expensive. Paris (dinner $24.95) received the lion’s share of votes: 712 or 25% of the total. The Aladdin (dinner $22.99) came in second with 609 votes or 22%. The Rio (dinner also $22.99) placed third with 312 votes or 12%. And Bellagio (the most expensive, at $24.95 Sunday through Thursday and $32.95 Friday and Saturday) ranked fourth with 302 votes or 11%.
Fifth place ($10.79-%15.99, 106 votes, 4%) went to Main Street Station, a perennial favorite of LVAers. Green Valley Ranch and the Orleans got 75 and 74 votes, respectively (3%), and the Mirage, Mandalay Bay, Gold Coast, and Fiesta Henderson received 2%.
I was initially startled by the results. I’d have thought that the big bargain buffets, such as the Orleans, Texas Station, and the Palms, would have ruled the day. But upon further reflection, it might not be so surprising after all.
Ever since the days of the $1 late-night chuckwagon, Las Vegas buffets have been emblematic of the town’s emphasis on an embarrassment of abundance at rock-bottom prices (which has always, of course, gladdened my frugal soul, even while clogging my frugal arteries!). When people visit Las Vegas, they want to stretch the envelope of excess, but most know better (thankfully!) than to do so at the gambling tables and machines. There’s no real danger – except, perhaps, of a little indigestion – of indulging at a buffet. Besides, even the most expensive of them, like Paris at $25 per person, don’t cost much more than a typical steakhouse or fancy Italian dinner back home.
And as long as they’re spending $12-$15 for a good buffet, occasional Las Vegas vacationers might as well spend $23-$25 for a truly exceptional buffet. The combination of the abundance and quality of food, and the not unreasonable prices, at the gourmet buffets makes frugal sense. After all, frugal isn’t about being cheap. It’s about getting good value.
To view the poll results, go to www.lasvegasadvisor.com. Under LVA Poll, click on Cast Your Vote. Then click on View Previous Polls. You don’t have to be a member of LVA to view the previous polls or vote on the current ones.
7/16/2004
This and that — from notes I’ve scribbled as Brad and I run around Las Vegas.
I deal with hosts a lot more now than when we played only quarters. But even with our usual $1-and-up play, our main casino contacts are still with players club employees. I’m always amazed at their patience as they do the sometimes extensive paperwork needed for us to get our great benefits. Even if it’s a short and easy transaction or an answer to a quick question, many greet us by name and give us a cheery hello and a smile. Although we get pleasant service at most of the casinos we visit, I want to give kudos to those extra friendly efficient players club workers at the Hard Rock, Cannery, and Palms. They make our visits to those casinos a warm personal experience!
A side street to the Cannery is named Losee. Don’t know how that is pronounced. Good name if it conjures up thoughts of “loosey goosey” machines; bad one if you think of losing!
Speaking of streets, we’ve discovered the newly finished Frank Sinatra Drive and for us locals, it’s a treasured find! From our condo on Harmon, just a little west of the Palms/Orleans, we can take Twain east, going under the I-15 freeway just past Industrial, and ending at Frank Sinatra Drive. There we can turn right and go the back way into any casino from Caesars Palace all the way south to Mandalay Bay. The beauty of this road is that you never have to cope with traveling on the traffic-clogged Strip. Experienced tourists have long used Koval and Paradise that parallel the Strip on the east and Industrial on the west side to avoid the Strip — now they have another option on the west. You can access Frank Sinatra Drive at Twain, from going north or south on Industrial. There is also an exit to it going north on I-15. Watch the signs as it splits off from the Tropicana exit. You can also access it from the Strip, just south of Mandalay Bay; turn west on Russell Road and the first left is FS Drive. You can enter here and follow it all the way until it ends at Industrial Road, just north of Twain.
I love a play on words. The Coast billboards now tout their new slot club and how you can use your points for cashback or comps with this slogan: “It’s Pointless to Play Anywhere Else.” (Although they no longer offer the good-paying video poker machines they used to, there are still some decent plays there — and the comp specials are very frugal for many players. I just wish they didn’t consider Brad and me personae non gratis.)
Now here’s a marquee sign that makes me mad every time I cross the Strip on Flamingo (which is all too often. I wish they’d hurry up and get the Strip/I-15/railroad flyover planned for Harmon Avenue done — we might never have to cross or traverse the Strip again! But I digress…) My blood boils several times a week when I read the huge Bally’s flashing marquee: “You asked for it –single-deck blackjack at Bally’s and Paris.” This is deceitful advertising at its worst, because what they don’t tell you is that a blackjack is paid only 6-5 instead of the normal-since-time-began 3-2. I don’t know anyone who requested that a casino increase their edge by 1.45%. No one in his or her right mind would beg: “Please give me a blackjack game that will take my money three times as fast!!” Avoid these games like the plague, which they are, infecting casinos all over the country. If everyone would just refuse to play them, you’d see how fast casinos would decide that players won’t fall for dirty tricks! (See my July 30, 2004, column for clarification and more details about this game.)
I have some more notes here, written on scraps of paper and napkins, but unfortunately I can’t read my own writing or remember why those words were important — so that’s all for this week.
7/23/2004
Skill and Luck (Part 2)
When I wrote my July 2 column about winning the first prize of $20,000 in a BJ tournament at the Rio, I didn’t realize that this was not just to be a record-breaking winning day for Brad and me, but the beginning of the best winning streak we’ve had in 20 years of casino gambling. Two days later I was dealt a royal on a $1 Five Play video poker machine for another $20,000. We don’t play $5 machines very often, but a few days later we were in Reno and needed to rack up some points fast and Brad’s machine popped a royal 12 minutes after he sat down—yep, for another $20,000. A week later he then got a little out of sync by “”fooling around”” on a quarter machine and hitting a $1,000 royal, but I got us back on the $20,000 track soon after by hitting another $5 royal. That’s $81,000 in less than three weeks. We’re now back on a more average VP track with no more big hits and our share of losing sessions.
I get a lot of questions about how much our video poker success is a result of luck and how much of it is due to skill. The short answer is that if you look at long-term numbers, skill is the overwhelming factor. However, if you look at the figures for one session or for a week, a month, or even a year of sessions, luck is the dominating factor.
Take my dealt royal mentioned above. That was pure luck. I was playing a machine with a good pay schedule, but it could have happened on a machine with the worst pay table in town. However, there’s usually a combination of luck and skill in any session. But the key thing to remember is this: Playing skillfully on a positive-expectation game is more likely to get you on the winning path sooner, and just as the sun rises in the east and goes down in the west, ignoring skill and depending on luck alone will soon send you in a downward spiral financially. Luck alone cannot beat the math!
A lot of players ask my advice about when they should move up in denomination, as we have done (very slowly and carefully) over the last 14 years of playing video poker. They hear about our recent fantastic winning streak and they’re itching to get one of those big jackpots. One player e-mailed me and asked what can happen on a good day with luck/skill at VP.
Before you start dreaming of big hits, you need to ask the more important questions—about the losing days. To shock you back into reality, I thought I’d would give you a summary of our daily gambling session win/loss figures from January of this year until our lucky streak started. We’d been down about $18,000 for the year when I won the BJ tournament on June 13, so we are nicely ahead at the moment, but we’re certainly not up by $81,000. So before you get jealous about those winning jackpots, here are some of our biggest losing days so far this year — all these figures are net losses in one day.
$3,280
$2,600
$4,790
$4,900
$6,000
$4,805
$2,500
$3,750
$6,865
$3,660
$4,000
$2,778
$2,885
$3,810
$4,690
Of course, we had some nice big winning days, but not nearly as long a list as the previous one:
$3,160
$13,410
$3,950
$3,705
$6,036
$3,750
All the rest of the days were “”normal,”” which we consider winning or losing $2000 or less, and as is also normal, there are many more losing sessions than winning ones. Note that we play mostly slightly negative games, so we should lose more than we win long-term on the actual game itself. We depend on cash benefits to make all our plays have an overall long-term positive expectation.
Next time you think about going up in denomination, ask yourself if you could survive this roller-coaster ride. Sure, the highs are fun, but notice how few and far between they are. Do you have the bankroll and the stomach to lose thousands of dollars in one day?
Is that sound I hear the rush of players back to the security of quarter machines?
7/30/2004
In my July 16th column two weeks ago, I talked about the terrible change for a natural blackjack payoff casinos all over the country are making to extract more money from gamblers — reducing the long-time established payoff for a blackjack of 3:2 to a pocket-emptying 6:5. Several readers brought it my attention that my numbers in that column needed to be explained and that the situation was even worse than I described, depending on which game — single-deck or 6-deck — you used for comparison. Here’s one letter that said it well.
Hi Jean,
I want to thank you again for mentioning this rotten BJ game to your readers, since the more people who know about this casino rip-off the better.
On a normal single-deck game where a blackjack is paid 3 to 2 and dealers hit soft 17, that house advantage is 0.18%. So the 1.45% casino advantage on 6 to 5 single-deck BJ is actually a raise in the casino advantage of 1.27%. The easiest way for players to understand the difference between these two paybacks is to say that a 0.18% casino advantage means that for every $100 a player churns (plays hand after hand) through, he’s giving the casino (on average) 18 cents. With a 1.45% casino advantage, for every $100 that the player churns through, he’s giving the casino $1.45. That’s more than EIGHT times (actually 8.06 times) the amount of the previous house advantage! When you multiply .18% by 8, you get 1.44%.
So what this 8.06 times means (if you compare it to other financial events) is that you would be paying $64.48 for an $8 movie ticket and $8.06 for any $1 item! What a horrible horrible rip-off! I think that casinos mostly get away with this because they think that people will believe that 6-to-5 is higher pay than 3-to-2 (since the numbers 6 and 5 are higher than 3 and 2). The sooner that more people are straightened out on this math, the better!
David
I checked with Henry Tamburin, a long-time expert BJ player and gaming writer. He verified this eight-times increase in the house edge on single-deck games. And for those who think that it isn’t so bad if you compare it to multi-deck games, he wrote: “The house edge is also 2.3 to 3.5 times greater compared to a standard 6-deck game, depending upon the rules — with dealer standing on soft 17, it’s 2.3 times greater and dealer hitting soft 17 it’s 3.5 greater. Readers of “Frugal Fridays” can get all the details on 6:5 blackjack in an article that I’ve posted on my Web site, www.smartgaming.com. It’s at the bottom of my home page under 6:5 CONSUMER ALERT.”
This is a great article that gives all the details about this new scourge and provides the scary figures on just how much more it will cost you to play it. Henry also gives some suggestions that players can use to help fight this new development.
While you’re at Henry’s site, check out the links on the home page to: informative BJ articles; how to subscribe to his free e-newsletter, Blackjack Insider; and information on a new amazing and EASY system for gaining the advantage beyond just using basic strategy, Golden Touch Blackjack.
And remember my advice when you see a 6:5 BJ game: Just Say No!