5/3/2007
A purely personal-opinion column!
Some Vegas Favorites
Shows:
Elton John: The Red Piano
Phantom of the Opera
Carrot Top
Shows to see with grandkids:
Blue Man Group
Any non-X-rated magic show
Masquerade Show in the Sky at the Rio – and ride a float at least one time
Newspaper columnists:
Norm
John L. Smith
Desserts:
Sugar-free pecan pie at Wynn Buffet
The light cheesecake (ask for it to be served frozen) at Ellis Island coffee shop – not sugar-free, but worth cheating on
Names:
The Deuce – double-decker buses on the Strip
Casual casino restaurants:
Grand Lux in the Venetian – every entrée or big salad will feed two
The Zooza Crackers Deli at Wynn
Wynn Terrace Garden Café – ask to sit outside on the patio at a table facing the pool. Wonderfully relaxing at dusk.
The Cantina at Tuscany Casino
Buffets:
Rio, Harrah’s, Luxor, Red Rock, Silverton, and Green Valley Ranch
Brad likes the “”home cooking”” at the Gold Coast buffet
VP Game:
SpinPoker and Multi-Strike, especially with the NSUD game
Hot dogs:
Sportsbook cart at the Gold Coast
Drink Store: The Coffee Bean & Tealeaf Company, which has sugar-free drinks that Starbucks doesn’t. My favorite cold drink there is a Sunrise, a thick frosty orange drink, made with fat-free sugar-free powder.
Gift shops where we have a big selection of items to buy using our slot club points:
Tuscany
Westin
Terrible’s
All Station Casinos
Drawings:
Silverton. You usually don’t have to be present to win and can collect for two hours after drawing time. No fighting crowds.
Any that are electronic. We hate filling out hundreds of entry blanks by hand.
Frequent “”little”” gifts we actually sometimes can use:
Tuscany
Silverton
Station Casinos
Palms
Hotel rooms:
Wynn
Caesars
Venetian
Casinos where we used to play that we miss the most now, either because they don’t have any more good VP plays or they’ve been imploded:
All the Coast properties
Stardust
Vegas World
Westward Ho
Desert Inn
Frontier
Décor:
The buffet at Silverton has a wonderfully classy woodsy theme and we like the Mermaid Tank too.
Tournaments:
Big ones at Caesars – no surprise about this choice, is it?
Some Vegas “”Unfavorites””
The noises during the free Wynn bingo games on the machines – sounds like pigs squealing and pulling their feet out of mud. After I wrote this, they took out the bonus. Hey, bring back the bonus – just hold the barnyard noises. There’s another Wynn problem for me. The décor at Wynn is pleasant on the eyes, but all that fabric holds the cigarette smell and gives me a terrific headache within 15 minutes.
The temperature in most casinos, especially NY-NY – freezing year-round.
The emphasis on blatant sex all over town – no class here anymore.
The long lines at Terrible’s slot club booth – why didn’t they move it to the new addition, enlarge it, and hire a couple more clerks? One of the reasons I rarely play there anymore.
The heavy smoke in Arizona Charlie’s Decatur that keeps me from playing there, and the same problem at Terrible’s.
The long walk from the parking garage to the 7 Stars lounge in the Augustus Tower at Caesars.
The difficulty finding a parking place in the Venetian garage during conventions.
The traffic – a 24-hour rush hour, and stop signs are viewed just as “”suggestions.”” Why our van got totaled a couple of years ago!
5/11/2007
Two weeks ago in this column I told you that Steve, my Army Ranger son-in-law, was yanked from his “non-deployable” position at Fort Benning, training new infantry recruits, and ordered to go to Iraq and participate in the Surge.
So many people have asked how they can show their support that I’m going to take the liberty to use this column to describe his life at the very front of the action and how we can encourage him and his men. Sometimes things are just more important than gambling!
When Steve first got to Iraq, he was at Forward Operating Base (FOB) HAMMER, which is definitely not a Hilton Resort. But he says it seems like paradise compared to the outpost where he is now. We don’t know exactly where this outpost is (Steve can’t say, due to security concerns) but it’s in the middle of the desert somewhere.
Here’s an excerpt from Steve’s latest e-mail: “The living conditions have gotten a lot worse than I had it at FOB Hammer. There is no a/c. The showers are homemade — you have to put the water in the top. Then you have to get wet, wash, then turn it back on to rinse off. I have to wear my helmet everywhere and carry my weapon with a magazine in it ready to fire at a moment’s notice. I won’t be doing any running here. That’s for sure. We are sleeping in tents with 8 of us in this one tent – not very much privacy. The bugs are terrible. I do travel from time to time, but mostly I will be at the command center making tactical calls and tracking the battles back there.
“As for the question you ask. Yes, it’s very hot here, but not too humid, comparable to Vegas weather. Today I think it was 104 degrees. The hot part is wearing all the body armor and helmet around – that stuff weighs about 50 pounds.
“On the upside I am in an Infantry unit, which means better trained and more prepared to fight if necessary. I actually get to see progress on this war.””
[Note from Jean: I wouldn’t consider all this an “”upside,”” but that’s the soldier in him talking who has been preparing for this for 19 years! It helps me understand a little better how soldiers can stand being in a war zone – all that training kicks in and they are so busy being prepared and in action that they don’t have so much time to ponder and worry.]
He goes on to say: “There are no phones out here yet and I have infrequent Internet access. Right now I have little or no spare time. I’m still trying to learn the new systems they have.
“”As for packages, this would be some suggestions you asked for:
1. AA batteries & AAA batteries (the guys all have electronic equipment, iPods, video game players, etc.)
2. Bug spray
3. Slim Jims
4. Summer sausage
5. Those small individual drink packages – lemon flavor
6. Trail mix
7. High-protein bars and health bars
8. Magazines [Jean’s note – no pornographic or religious material – isn’t that something to lump those together in the no-no category!]
9. Nuts – all kinds
10. Little Debbie cakes
11. Hot sauce
12. Spices – pepper, salt, season salt – “the food is horrible” – mostly MREs.
13. Baby wipes or other cleansing items, useful when water is scarce.
14. Hard candy/mints – no chocolate or anything that melts or is extremely perishable.
“That’s all I can think of right now. Thanks for worrying about me, but please don’t worry. I have been doing this stuff for a long time so I know how to keep my head down and stay away from bad situations.””
You can see that Steve is trying to be as positive as he can, but that’s being a good example for his men, since one of his duties is trying to keep up morale. Of course, he misses his family so much –- being away from them is the hardest thing.
Steve will, of course, appreciate any packages of goodies and I know he’ll share them with those who aren’t getting packages. A terrific Web site with practical advice about how to send things to Iraq is www.tobiasly.com/2005/02/22/sending-care-packages-to-soldiers-in-iraq-or-afghanistan/.
5/18/2007
This week I’m happy to present a guest columnist. Elliot Frome, Elliot is a good friend of mine, as was his late father, Lenny Frome. Elliot is continuing with his father’s purpose: to give sound math-based gambling information. Here he tackles a puzzling question for many video poker players.
How Long is the Long Run?
By Elliot Frome
Much of the criticism of expert strategy is based on the idea that the “long run” in video poker would take either years of habitual play or several lifetimes for the more casual player. To be honest, I’ve never really seen a complete analysis of this concept. Each version of video poker will also have its own “long run” based on the volatility of the game. In relatively simple terms, a game will have higher volatility if a larger percentage of its payback comes from rarely occurring hands. Thus, Double Double Bonus Poker, which has what amounts to two jackpots, is far more volatile than the original Jacks or Better. The higher the volatility, the more hands it will take to get to the long run.
At the same time, it’s not as if everything that occurs before you get to the long run is meaningless. Basic laws of probability tell us that as you play more hands, the more likely you will approach the theoretical payback. This doesn’t mean you should play more and more hands. I don’t advocate playing for hour upon hours. For almost everyone reading this, video poker is a hobby, and no hobby should be all consuming. Rather, it means that no matter how often you play or how much you play, each hand that you play brings you that much closer to the long run and that much closer to approaching the theoretical payback if you start counting from the moment you first started playing.
To illustrate this, think of a simple coin toss. After one toss, you’ll have either one head or one tail. If you were to wager even money on the outcome, we know that the payback of this game would be 100%. Yet after one toss, you’ll either be at 0% or 200%. If you toss it again, you’ll have a 25% chance of being at 0%, a 25% chance of being at 200%, and a 50% chance of being at 100%. If we continue the math, we’ll find that as you flip the coin more and more, the probability of being at each extreme will diminish, while the probability of being at the theoretical payback will increase.
While the math associated for video poker is far more complex, the basic concepts are still the same. If you play one hand of video poker, you might get nothing and have a payback of 0% or you might hit a royal and have an 80,000% payback. Or you’ll get one of the hands in between and have that particular payback. In fact, after a single hand it’s not even possible to have the exact theoretical payback. After two hands, the odds of having a 0% payback will diminish. Most versions of video poker have a losing hand occurring about 55% of the time. So after one hand, you have a 55% chance of having a 0% payback. After two hands, this decreases to about 30%. As you play more and more hands, you’ll find your payback begins to approach the theoretical payback. Unlike our coin toss, which will very quickly approach the theoretical payback, video poker will take a bit longer. There are far more possible combinations in video poker, and with the royal, which occurs roughly every 40,000 hands, accounting for 2% of the overall payback, we’re certainly not going to reach the long run in just a couple thousand hands.
To get a sense of just how long the long run is, I started with the most common hand in video poker, the low pair. These account for just a bit below 30% of all hands. I ran a simulation of one million low pairs and I tracked the results both of each 1,000-hand “session” and the total after each 1,000-hand session. I found the results to be rather interesting.
First of all, the theoretical payback (i.e. expected value) of a low pair is 0.82368. After one million hands, the overall payback of the simulation was 0.82326.
5/25/2007
Place to Buy Vitamins
Vitamin World is the place to be on 30%-off days –usually the first Monday and Tuesday of the month. You must join their free “club” and get a card first to get this discount but it can be a card you might have from any of their stores nationwide. They have stores at the following malls in the Vegas area: Meadows, Boulevard, Galleria at Sunset in Henderson, both Las Vegas Outlet Malls (downtown and South LV Blvd), and in Laughlin.
Place to Buy Comfortable Shoes
SAS Factory Shoe Store, during the twice-yearly sales (Feb. and July). Locations in Las Vegas Outlet Mall at 7400 S. Las Vegas Boulevard, at 3945 S. Maryland Pkwy and 1750 N. Buffalo, and in Laughlin at 1955 S. Casino Drive.
Hospitals
None really. Never had a fun time in any, but Sunrise and Valley and Spring Valley did help save Brad’s life a few times, so they’re to be heartily thanked, even though the nurse shortage is acute at all of them. St. Rose Dominican Hospital, San Martin Campus, is a beautiful new facility in southwest Las Vegas, with state-of-the-art furnishings including flat-screen TVs in the rooms. Brad actually enjoyed staying in this hotel-like room, because that time he wasn’t there in an emergency.
Stonework for Your Home
National Stone did an amazing job covering our kitchen countertops and bar front with beautiful granite. (We finally got around to doing something “frivolous” with part of our big Caesars tournament win from last June.) Their prices are about average for this type of work, but their workmanship is the best I’ve ever seen. They’re licensed contractors, with custom fabrication in granite and marble, for kitchen, bath, fireplaces, and flooring. We went right to their stoneyard, at 4325 S. Valley View (just east of the Palms), and picked out the three large slabs that had the flowing gold veins that I’d always admired. 702/364-9595.
Plumbing
Clark County Services offers 24-hour plumbing service, with discounts for seniors. See if you can get one of the Burton twins, Brian or Kevin. They’re friendly efficient young men. Tell them the Frugal Gambler recommended them and they’ll give you extra special service! Call 702/597-4773.
For Alterations
Rose’s Cleaners & Alterations, at 4584 W. Spring Mountain (between Arville and Decatur), can do any type of sewing, from simple pants hemming to complicated tailoring. And these Korean owners are so nice that they seem pained that they actually have to charge you! The parents speak no English, but their friendly gracious daughter will handle your order efficiently. You’ll see that they put Frugal Gambler business cards by their register. 702/362-3629.
Printer Cartridges and Other Supplies
Cartridge World is a franchise with over 950 stores worldwide, and the first store in Nevada is in Las Vegas, in the strip mall at the southeast corner of Flamingo & Decatur (behind Marie Callendar’s). This is handy for out-of-towners as well as locals, since they’re just down the street from the Palms.
They specialize in refilling inkjet cartridges and remanufacturing laser cartridges with prices of up to 50% less than the MSRP price of the new cartridge. Cartridges can be refilled while you wait, they can exchange the cartridge for already refilled one (if available), or you can purchase a refilled/remanufactured cartridge. They also carry OEM and compatible inkjet cartridges.
They use only premium parts and their toners and inks are sourced from top suppliers specifically for your equipment. Once the cartridge has been remanufactured, they test it to ensure a quality print. They guarantee that cartridges refilled by them will perform as well as the original equipment. As a matter of fact, if you don’t believe your refilled cartridge is as good as an original, they’ll gladly refund your money!
I get my cartridges here and recommend this service highly as a very frugal option.