Comments on: Advantage Gambling in the Long Term

By: Greg Elder

Greg Elder — Tue, 29 May 2012 15:22:03 +0000

Thanks for being so open with your records.

Regardless of the wins/losses, I think the overall message is the importance of keeping accurate records for those that strive to be an advantage player.

By: Kevin Lewis

Kevin Lewis — Mon, 28 May 2012 03:14:42 +0000

The unspoken aspect is that Jean is playing MUCH more inherently negative EV VP than she did in her early Frugal days. She plays at Caesar’s properties, etc. where the best plays are things like 8/5 Bonus, calculating that the value of the resultant freebies will propel the play back into positive territory. The trouble is, even if such plays ARE +EV, they have drastically higher variance than the olden days of pumping dollars into a FPDW single-line machine. The goodies you get may vary dramatically (we ALL know that there’s a weak correlation, at best, between your play and what the casinos send you), or your +EV may lie in drawings and such where you more often than not win nothing at all. It doesn’t take much of this to send a given year into a death spiral. The difference between Jean’s current methods and classic “Frugal” strategies is that now, she accepts a certain degree of inevitable loss going in. While this loss may be recompensated in the long run, it makes for a bumpy ride in the short run. I’m sure Jean is well bankrolled. But there’s still an element of luck involved, in that if she had had years like this in, say, 1995 and 1996, she might have gone bust and/or given up. We’ve all been there to some extent, and all I could advise anyone would be to, these days at least, minimize variance even at the expense of EV.

By: Jerry Udell

Jerry Udell — Mon, 28 May 2012 01:52:02 +0000

I have known both of you for over 15 years. You never fail to amaze me with both your knowledge and your desire to learn more and become better at what you do.
Amazing analysis. Even more amazing is the FCT that you tackled the task of mastering excel and did it do well

By: John C.

John C. — Sun, 27 May 2012 03:02:52 +0000

Jean,

Thank you for your open book policy. You have enlightened me to advantage VP play since the Skip Hughes Group. I will NEVER be the full time Advantage player, but my trips will always be less costly due to your advice and help.

JJC

By: Richard A Hynes

Richard A Hynes — Sat, 26 May 2012 13:26:19 +0000

I was always told growing up this antedote. One can afford to gamble, if they could throw their money out the car window while driving and not turn around to retrieve it.

By: Gamb00ler

Gamb00ler — Sat, 26 May 2012 08:32:55 +0000

Having worked with computers since 1982 I naturally chose to use a spreadsheet almost from the beginning of my gambling career(1990). Over the years my data collection methods changed as my experience with spreadsheets grew.

These days I use a general ledger type system, then use the aggregation/categorization tools provided by the spreadsheet. I record free play, gift cards, cash back, machine result as separate types. That way I can see how each source contributes to the total result. When I really want a nicely summarized report, I export the data to an SQL database then write some fairly simple SQL to produce the summary any which way I fancy.

Unfortunately one piece of data that I didn’t collect faithfully until the last couple of years, was action for each session. I sure wish I had that number for every session.

One thing that truly amazes me is the number of “units” I’ve lost playing those games that are negative (excluding any/all benefits) such as Jacks 9/6, NSUD, etc.

I enjoy most of all looking at a graph of my net profit that is tracked by session. It is so easy to see the swings and also the inexorable upward trend. I enthusiastically encourage all gamblers to look at the graph of their long term results when they’re experience a temporary drought.

G’luck all,
Gamb00ler

By: Dan Sowards

Dan Sowards — Fri, 25 May 2012 23:32:29 +0000

Obviously, the key figure you’ve not revealed is the multiplier you and Brad use. If it’s $5.00, which I suspect it is, at least over the last ten years, then you’ve done quite well! Sorry that I can’t say the same. I’ve had some good rolls and some bad. For your readers, most of my “bad rolls” have been at Harrah’s. Seems that I can get the big wins at other casinos playing minimal time, but I tend to give most of it back at Harrah’s. My casino host is probably embarassed by the fact, but that’s the way it goes. I still get good free play, etc. at Harrah’s, which does make a big difference.