Reading back over that blog entry, I realized I was guilty of trying to simplify a very complex situation, something you can never do when talking about casino programs. So now I am going to start over on the subject of figuring the EV of a video poker play.

Yes, this is a good starting point:

1. Learn the EV of the game you want to play.
2. Find the players club point value
3. Add them together for the EV of the regular total play
4. If there is a multiple-point bonus, add that to get the total play for “special days.”

However there are other factors you need to consider.  One of the most important details is the amount of bounce-back you can expect.  Unfortunately, that is not as big a factor as in years past. In the “good ol’ days” even casual players would find bounce-back amounts in their mailers large enough to motivate them to “bounce back” to the casino. Regular players, even at the lower denominations, could reap hundreds of dollars a month that would raise their play EV substantially.  Heavy and/or high-level players were getting amounts in the thousands of dollars, allowing them to turn low-EV games into positive EV plays.

There has not only been a major reduction of bounce-back amount across the board but also many casinos have switched their bounce-back program from the long-term consideration we players were used to – basing it exclusively on coin-in. We knew exactly how much bounce-back we would get if we put xxx amount of money through the machine. Now most casinos have gone to what I call the “blender” system, taking into consideration many other factors, most of which are unknown – and kept secret – to the players.  These could be your address, time on machine, type of machine played, number of playing sessions, etc., etc. One that can often be figured out by the players by keeping track of their play history is the win/loss factor.  But this knowledge is pretty useless since one can’t “control” whether they win or lose during any bounce-back qualification period.

Although players can’t depend on the bounce-back system as much as they used to, there are still many other ways to add to that starting-point list I gave above.  You can look for extras and I have spent a lot of time discussing these in my books and other writings down through the years:  couponing, tournaments, drawings, short-term players club promotions.  Although in the past we have never counted comps in our total play EV, referring to them as “gravy,” if you are very careful to not overvalue them, they are an extra you might want to add to your total.  And with the good play inventory decreasing all the time, we may want to do that in the future ourselves.

My next step in discussing how to evaluate a good play will be to give examples.  I’m working on this – takes a bit of research.  So that is what I will include in a blog entry in the near future.  Stay tuned!

Here are some of my random thoughts about each of these complaints, most of them just repetitions of things I have said….many times over and over…in the past.  First, “frugal” does not mean cheap and does not describe just low-level gambling.  “Frugal” means getting good value for your money anywhere and at any level of gambling play.

The advice in my writings is primarily basic concepts, ideas that can be used to save you money no matter what game you play and whatever denomination you choose.  It can be helpful whether you are a local gambler who plays every day or a once-in-awhile gambler who visits a far-away casino destination.  For example, if I say that the Gold Coast in Las Vegas is having 7x points on Sundays in September,  that information can be used by locals and out-of-towners.  It is just as valuable to a quarter player as it is to one who plays at a much higher denomination.   (I see all of these categories every Sunday!)

I have emphasized over and over during the last few years that playing advantage video poker definitely is getting harder.  But the fact is that trying to make a profit gambling has NEVER been easy.  Too many players want all the information handed to them on a silver platter.  They don’t realize that it takes constant hard work for every gambler.

Many many players are still finding financial success in playing video poker, not just we who write about it.  Here are some of the ways that will help you make a profit, whether you are a quarter player or a high-roller.

• You choose plays that are ALWAYS over 100%, adding the machine EV plus the extra benefits.  Playing at less than 100% will ALWAYS see that you lose in the long term.  YOU CAN’T BEAT THE MATH.
• Constant scouting, both in the casinos and on the Internet.  VpFREE2 is your best friend.  Don’t complain about the lack of good games unless you check there frequently.
• You chase promotions and extra benefits with a vengeance because there aren’t as many high EV games as there used to be.  You need to find added benefits.
• You are learning to play new games so you have a bigger choice of plays with higher EV’s.
• You are becoming more flexible.  I never hear the most successful players say, “I wouldn’t play there because of the low-class clientele.”  Or, “I prefer to play at a casino closer to my house even though there are better plays further away.”
• You will play a “boring” game with a higher EV (think 9/6 JoB) rather than a more-fun game (think 8/5 Bonus Poker) that puts the play under 100%.
• If you want to go up in denomination, you will wait until you have increased your bankroll.  This is an important one.  Too many players – even skilled ones – are tapping out because they aren’t adjusting their bankroll.  You can’t depend on the same bankroll size that you had when you were playing at a 1% advantage now that you are averaging only a .5% edge.  You need to either drop down in denomination or bulk up your bankroll.  TOO MANY PLAYERS ARE PLAYING ABOVE THEIR BANKROLL – a recipe for disaster.    And if you haven’t figured the ROR (risk of ruin) of your play, you might be surprised how much danger you are in.  Doing plays with only a .1 or .2% edge – it is unbelievable how big a bankroll you need, even on the quarter level.

I’m sure I could add more bullets to that list – and I know there are those who will give more ideas in the “Comments,” but this gives you an idea of how much self-discipline and hard work it takes to be a successful advantage video poker play.  Now, I realize not everyone has that goal.  Maybe you don’t want to be this strict on yourself or you don’t have the time to put in the necessary study and research. Perhaps you are just a recreational player but you want to make your small bankroll last longer so your fun will last longer.  Then look at that list and see if you can pick out some of the ideas you can use.  The more that you can put into action the less you will lose in the long run.

First of all, we don’t consider Free Play the “casino’s money.” Once it is in our mailbox or loaded on our account, it is our money and we don’t look on it as something we can waste. During the required first play-through, the casino does have some control over that money and we are bound by some of their restrictions, i.e., what games on which it can be used.   We have enjoyed some different and fun experiences when it can be used only on slot machines and not video poker.

Once you finish playing it through once, however, you do not have to let the casino decide what to do then. Don’t fool yourself; it is now your money and it becomes a part of your bankroll.

We make it a habit to play Free Play through more than once ONLY if the rest of our play after the first run-through is a “good” play. In some cases, we are going to play more anyway because we need the points to reach some weekly, monthly, or quarterly goal.   And there can be another reason we don’t cash out immediately:  some casinos will “punish” players who pick up Free Play with no additional play.  So in that case we will do at least a little extra play to keep the casino offers – including future Free Play – coming.  But in many cases, after the first run-through, the play would have a low EV, below our standards of a “good” one, so we would cash out and “run.”

It takes a lot of self-discipline to make the right play choices, no matter where the money you are playing came from.  But if you use your Free Play wisely, just as you do any part of your bankroll, you will have better long-term results.

So now, here is the new promotion:  5x for slots (which, according to a players club employee, means 10x points because slots already get 2x as an everyday bonus); and 2x for video poker.  Note that there is also a change in the way the points will accumulate.  Usually the base and bonus points accumulate together, i.e., on 2x days the points are doubled as you play.  On Mother’s Day (and probably on future bonus days) only base points will accumulate as you play.  Then the players club will add the bonus (which is usually capped at 80,000 points) on the next day or two.

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A technical note: It looks like the computer gremlin that decided to send some subscribers a very very annoying hundreds of e-mail notifications finally got tired about 4 a.m.  Wheeeeeeeee! What a relief and I certainly hope this gremlin is at the bottom of the sea with bin Laden!!

However, perhaps I wasn’t really as clear as I could have been in my last blog entry.  No, we don’t play at Caesars properties in Las Vegas.  Yes, we still do travel to some Caesars properties, often in conjunction with family visits.  We make more trips to those places where we can reach by car, i.e., Laughlin.  I listed many properties only to give you information about where many skilled players often find good plays.  We don’t visit all of them since we are cutting down on out-of-town travel that involves long flights.

Yes, getting to Seven Stars, for most people – including ourselves, involves playing at higher denominations.  It takes a million dollars of coin-in each year to maintain that tier, a feat that would be an almost full-time “job” at the lower denominations.  And for someone who wants to play the highest EV games, there is the problem that these games often are offered only at the higher denominations.

No, I am not going to tell you exactly where and when we play and why we choose a particular casino.  One casino that offered good plays last year may have cut down on their offers this year and we don’t play there anymore.  Or, one casino has downgraded their paytables.   There is no Caesars property where we play on a regular schedule.  We just look at the offers we get and see how many we can work into our schedule without it being more effort than we want to exert.  One of the hardest things we have to do these days is turn down an extremely good offer because it involves too much travel time and more energy than we think we might have!

We aren’t strongly committed to continuing Seven Star status every year.  If the good plays dry up – and/or if our energy levels fall even further – we will happily drop down to Diamond level, which is a tier that has plenty of benefits and is probably the best goal for most players to attain with just their usual amount of play.  I never recommend that anyone play beyond their bankroll to reach higher tiers.