8/6/2007
I just finished reading the July issue of Henry Tamburin’s Blackjack Insider e-Newsletter (BJI) and as usual, I was impressed with the content. For example, Ken Smith, the tournament pro that you’ve probably seen on the televised UBT blackjack tournaments, describes his recent unpleasant experience of being tossed out of a casino during the middle of a tournament (and he was invited to play!). Then there’s an article alerting subscribers to an $80,000 overlay that currently exists in the perfectly legal blackjack tournaments offered on the new site www.ClubUBT.com. There are also tips on the best places to play blackjack in Reno and Atlantic City, plus strategy articles covering blackjack tournaments, team play, crap tournaments, and Texas hold ’em. Something for everyone — and that’s just one issue of the BJI!
The newsletter is written for recreational players at all levels of playing experience who want to elevate their game to the next level. (So, even beginners will enjoy reading the BJI.) Henry has assembled a top-notch team of writers and reporters who write about everything to do with blackjack and sometimes other casino games where you can get the edge. Some of the topics covered in the BJI: listing the casinos that offer the best blackjack games in different areas (Atlantic City, Las Vegas, Reno, Mississippi, Midwest, and elsewhere), the best strategies to use if you’re a casual blackjack player, strategies for card counters or players who want to learn about card counting, blackjack tournament strategies from pros who make their living playing in tournaments, trip reports from pros so you can read how they make money playing blackjack, a monthly poker column because so many blackjack players are learning how to play poker, and a whole lot more.
Henry has been writing the BJI since 2001 and hasn’t missed publishing a single issue, so you can be assured the BJI will be around in the future. And because it’s written, assembled, and distributed rapidly by email each month, the information is current. (The newsletter comes as an e-mail attachment, which you can read on your computer or print out on your printer and then read it.)
An annual membership to the newsletter is only $19.95, which works out to a frugal 16 cents per article. But there’s more good stuff. BJI members have access to over 500 articles on blackjack located in the archives at www.bjinsider.com. There’s even a search engine on the site so you can find information on any topic about blackjack (as well as on video poker, craps, and poker) that has appeared in the BJI.
And here’s more frugal good news. Right now all Frugal Friday readers will receive $80 worth of free (I love that word) stuff that includes blackjack training software, e-books, and gambling magazine subscriptions when they sign-up for an annual membership (that’s right, you get $80 worth of gifts for a $19.95 membership … now that’s really frugal!). Just click here for the details: www.bjinsider.com/offer.
Speaking of video poker, I’ve contributed articles to the BJI on VP, and so have my fellow video poker experts, Skip Hughes and Bob Dancer. Here’s a link to one of my articles on Why Switch from Blackjack to Video Poker that you might be interested in reading.
Probably one of the most hilarious gaming articles that I’ve ever read appeared in the BJI. It was written by my friend and fellow gaming writer Frank Scoblete about his worst casino gambling trip. If you’ve ever taken a trip to a gambling destination and then experienced bad weather, you might relate to some of Frank’s experiences. Here’s a link to his st
8/9/2007
I just finished an intense month working night and day on the new and much-expanded version of Tax Help for the Frugal Gambler (which will be out before the end of the year). I’m so relieved it’s finished and in the hands of my editor that I’m giddy. That’s my excuse for this column – and I’m sticking with it!
AUGUST HOLIDAYS
1 Respect for Parents Day
1 Friendship Day
2 Ice Cream Sandwich Day
3 Watermelon Day
3 Tony Bennett b-day 1926
4 Twins Day Festival
5 Mustard Day
5 Sisters Day
6 Wiggle Your Toes Day
7 Sea Serpent Day
7 Lighthouse Day
7 Kids Day
8 Sneak Zucchini On Your Neighbor’s Porch Night
8 Senior Citizens Day
9 Polka Festival
10 Lazy Day
11 Presidential Joke Day
12 Middle Child’s Day
13 Blame Someone Else Day
14 Creamsicle Day
15 Relaxation Day
16 Elvis Memorial Day 1977
16 Bratwurst Festival
17 Thriftshop Day
18 Bad Poetry Day
19 Potato Day
19 Relaxation Day
19 Aviation Day
20 Radio Day
21 Spumoni Day
21 Hawaii Day
22 Be An Angel Day
23 Ride the Wind Day
23 Rick Springfield b-day 1949
23 Sponge cake Day
24 Knife Day
25 Kiss-And-Make-Up Day
26 Steven Wright b-day 1954
26 Cherry Popsicle Day
27 Petroleum Day
28 World Sauntering Day
29 Robin Leach b-day 1941
29 More Herbs, Less Salt Day
30 Toasted Marshmallow Day
31 Trail Mix Day
That list comes from the newsletter of Tom Wilkinson, the guy behind the chock-full-of-information Web site Vegas4locals (http://www.vegas4locals.com/), who finds more unusual (even weird) things to do in Vegas than anyone I know. And many of them are free or he provides a coupon or offer for a discount.
Speaking of oddball items – try this site – http://www.cheapovegas.com/index.php and the related http://www.bigempire.com/vegas/ where you can read about “Vegas on 25-cents a Day.” “Vegas for the Cheap of Heart” takes “frugal” to extremes I never even thought of, even long ago when Brad and I were first-class scroungers on the slightly weird side of Las Vegas.
Then there’s http://www.thevegashustler.com/. I would have never found an “Underground Guide to Sin City” except the gal that does my nails at the Palms told me that her husband runs this site and I had to check it out. These days, actually the closest Brad and I get to the wild “underground” of Vegas is when we get haircuts, or our fingernails or toenails prettied up at the Amp Salon (no, just me on the toe part; Brad eschewed that but does submit to a manicure once in a while). Those guys and gals exude the new Vegas always-a-party look. We keep saying we need to go clubbin’, but that’s hard to do when you want to be in your recliner by 8 p.m. And our recliner is definitely above ground.
I’m not sure this is weird or just scary. I went to http://www.familywatchdog.us/ and found there are a lot of sex offenders in the vicinity of our condo.
You don’t see much on TV related to video poker unless you’re watching a Travel Channel special on Vegas. But imagine my surprise when video poker has become a prominent part in the storyline of our favorite TV show, Big Love. Video poker and polygamy – now there’s one really weird combination!
[Editor’s Note: And speaking of weird, this seems like an appropriate place to add Jean and Brad’s “”money”” bathroom to the list of unusual restrooms we covered in Question of the Day on this Web site (7/31/07; these are public bathrooms that anyone can visit, while Jean’s is her own private bathroom that only she and Brad and I can see).
8/17/2007
Last Thursday at 7 p.m. there was a drawing at the Palms. We didn’t plan to participate because we wouldn’t have any advantage. You couldn’t win entries by playing; any person who had swiped their card once that week for a daily promotion would have one entry if they swiped their card that Thursday.
However, we unexpectedly found ourselves at the Palms at that time – a growing progressive had lured us – so we swiped our cards. The progressive was hit (sadly not by us), but instead of going home, we decided we could spend a few more minutes while they called 10 names, each one to win $1,000. How long could that take?
My first clue that this was going to be a waste of time was that we didn’t see any of the “drawing regulars,” those who can play for hours and hours and overwhelm a drawing drum. But we’re retired – we could spare the 5 or 10 minutes before we went home and jumped into our swimming pool for a cool-off.
The second clue came when, after they called the first 10 names, only two people answered the call. Eight more names were called and no one answered. Eight more names were called. Still no response. I don’t know how many times eight new names were called with no response. If I’d known I was going to write about this fiasco, I would have taken notes.
After umpteen rounds of name-calling, perhaps 15 minutes or so, finally one person yelled they were a winner. Everyone cheered. During the very next round, two more people claimed theirs. The crowd had been grumbling, but now everyone was happy. Only five more names to go. It wouldn’t be long before everyone could go home.
Wrong. They called five names, waiting two minutes to give the winner time to get through the crowd. Then five new names – and the same routine over and over and over and over again. It was now 7:30. We’d been standing there 30 minutes and mutiny was rumbling through the huge crowd.
I should also tell you that Brad had been pushing for us to go home since 7:10 p.m. He was so bored that he sat down at a keno machine and blew $10 trying to entertain himself. He kept grumbling, but the longer I stood there the more determined (he said stubborn) I was to see this thing out.
At 7:30, the employees running the drawing came to their senses and realized something I had grasped 29 minutes before: The rules of the drawing were unusual, to say the least. Sunday through Wednesday if you swiped, you got a slip of paper with some prize, usually some sort of mostly useless gift. But on Thursday, if you swiped, you just qualified for the drawing. But most people didn’t read the rules carefully and swiped on Thursday hoping to get a prize. They were just disappointed – thought the prize machine was out of paper – but never planned to stick around for the drawing.
Well, the employees huddled and said they would now draw ten names and maybe they could give out the last five $1,000 prizes faster. The crowd was ecstatic. Most didn’t care anymore if they won themselves – they just wanted five someones to win so they could go home.
Wonder of wonders, at 7:35 p.m. that first ten-number list contain my number. I was way at the back, but I held up my hand and yelled. The crowd went crazy and I was high-fived all the way to the drawing table to turn in my slot card. I don’t know exactly what happened next, since I was racing to the cage so I could be first in line to collect my $1,000 and let Brad take me home. But the crowd rushed by me in just a few minutes so I guess they quickly got their four more winners.
Are we going to do this drawing another Thursday? I may be stubborn, but I’m not crazy!
8/24/2007
Although I do have a chapter on slot machines in both Frugal books, I don’t often write about them in this column. As everyone who’s read my writings for the last nine years knows, I emphasize playing games that have the smallest casino edge, so you have a better chance to lose less money in the long run, i.e., basic strategy blackjack, or games that proceed at a slower pace so your money will last longer in the short term, i.e. paper keno. Unfortunately, most slot machines fit in neither one of those categories: There’s a big casino edge against you and they play fast as lightning.
However, I know that slots are the biggest entertainment for many players, and even conservative players who usually chose the “better” games sometimes stray over to them for a bit of play. Therefore, when I saw a recent article by Alan Krigman in his weekly email edition of Winning Ways, I thought maybe it might be of interest to people who occasionally like to take a shot at a big slot jackpot.
A caution: This is not a system to guarantee a win – you know I hate systems that give you false hope by telling you there’s a way to overcome a negative game by some form of money management.
Part 1
By Alan Krigman
One of my new heroes, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, believes history turns on highly unlikely events, which can’t really be predicted in advance, but seem logical in retrospect. He calls these “”Black Swans.”” Examples are the invention of the computer and the laser, or the meteorite from outer space that may have wiped out the dinosaurs and given rise to the age of the mammal. A small bet on such a thing will probably lose. But if it wins, the rewards can be enormous.
Mr. Taleb tries to apply this concept to the world of finance. He does it with small bets on events that are extreme long shots — bets that he usually loses, but can afford, because they’re small. He makes these bets in conjunction with larger bets on phenomena with a much greater degree of certainty, which pay modest dividends if they come through. Hopefully, the modest dividends help to cover the losses on the long shots and throw off a small profit to sustain him against the day when — hopefully — one of the Black Swans comes through for a fortune.
There’s an analogy in casino gambling. But big jackpots — and lottery prizes work the same way — aren’t really Black Swans, because they can be anticipated beforehand and their probabilities are known. Maybe you and I don’t know them, but the bosses in the $2,500 suits do.
Can you use Mr. Taleb’s general approach to go for the gold while trying to keep your head above water with much more conservative bets? Read the approach suggested [in next week’s column] and decide for yourself whether it’s something you may want to try.
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Alan Krigman is a well-known casino gaming writer. If you’re willing to don your thinking cap, he can help you understand how the edge affects the chances associated with your gambling session performance and how to keep its impact as benign as possible consistent with other gambling objectives. You can get Alan’s weekly words of wagering wisdom, along with the acclaimed poetry of the beloved bard, Sumner A Ingmark, by subscribing to his free weekly email newsletter, Winning Ways. To do so, just send an email message — content is irrelevant — to [email protected].
8/30/2007
Here’s the guest article I introduced to you last week.
How to Get an (Almost) Free Shot at a Slot Jackpot
by Alan Krigman
People go to casinos to make money. Pretenses aside, the idea is not simply to achieve the ecstasy of victory and avoid the agony of defeat while getting a comp for the buffet. If it were, why not stay home, play chess or Parcheesi, and raid the icebox?
At the slots especially, many solid citizens gamble with a “go-for-broke” philosophy. They start with a certain bankroll and are willing to invest it in a try at whatever prize they think is worth the effort. Nobody actually wants to bust out in aspiring to bag a bundle and many losers kick themselves later for letting it happen. But folks frequently play and talk as if they don’t mind having lost, and fate often ends up testing their mettle.
It takes more discipline than most slot buffs can muster to quit with a modest profit or cut and run with a moderate setback. The promise is always looming that the jackpot, or at least a hit big enough to recover or stay in the game, may be just one spin away.
Table-game aficionados, particularly those who regularly play low-edge games like blackjack or craps with even-money or small-multiple payoffs, tend to have a different attitude. They’ve got to be realistic about risking a bankroll and leaving without it. But these gamblers are more apt than not to have exit strategies based on win goals tempered by their stakes. For instance, a bettor coming to a $10 table with $200 may realize it’s foolhardy to keep playing after a profit reaches $100 or certainly $200.
Here’s an approach that combines these strategies, attempting to achieve the best of both worlds. Divide a bankroll into two unequal portions. Use the smaller part to play the slots on a do-or-die basis. If you score, cash out and gloat. If you exhaust the allocated fraction, go to a blackjack table with the rest of your bankroll, aiming to win back what you lost at the machine.
To get an idea of how it works, make believe you start with $200. Divide it three alternate ways: $20/$180, $25/$175, and $50/$150. Say you play a machine with $1 max per pull that has a $10,000 jackpot. Slots differ from one another. But on a typical machine with a 94% player payback, the likelihood you’ll reach $10,000 before depleting your stake is about one in 10 million, playing with your whole $200 bankroll. It’s one in 90 million starting with $20, 75 million with $25, and 38 million with $50. Chances are better with $200; however they’re remote in any case.
Assume you lost the part of your money designated for the slots. What are your chances of winning it back, rather than going all the way down, by hazarding the remainder of the $200 at $10 blackjack? Following perfect basic strategy, the probabilities are 81% putting up $180 to win $20, 77% using $175 to recoup $25, and 59% investing $150 to earn $50.
Maybe you’re a fatter cat and come to the casino with $500. You might split it into $50 for the slots and $450 for blackjack. These are the same proportions as $20 and $180 on $200. Your chance of earning $10,000 at $1 per spin on the slots is one in 38 million as before. Your chance at recovering $50 with a $450 bankroll at $10 blackjack is 88%.
You have more cash on hand, though, and may wonder how bigger bets would impact this method of play. On a $2 slot machine with 94% return, all else being equal, the chance of a $10,000 jackpot would be better than on a $1 game. This makes a difference in the ultimate chance of success, which rises to one in 5,000 with $500 -– better, but not good (that’s an average of once a century if you play once a week). It’s one in 45,000 with $50. And getting back $50 at $25 blackjack with a $450 bankroll has 89% probability.
Prospects of one in 45,000 at winning $10,000 and 89% of breaking even still leave the danger of a wipeout at 11%. So you’re not exactly getting a free shot at the bosses’ bounty.