5/2/2003
I haven’t climbed up on my soapbox and given a lecture on the state of the video poker world for several months now, although the online chat groups are overflowing with talk of it. There’s a lot of moaning and groaning about the decrease of good games, especially in Las Vegas. The Coast off-Strip properties (Suncoast, Orleans, and Gold Coast) have, in just a few months, gone from being among the best places in the world for gamblers who want at least a sporting chance of winning to a video poker wasteland where even casual players feel that they will mostly donate to the casinos’ bottom line.
However, gamblers in Vegas (and elsewhere) don’t take change sitting down. And I’m not talking about just the sharpies. Because a wealth of information about gambling is available today, many recreational players are becoming educated to odds and the difference between a good game and a bad one. They may not know the math, but when they see that their favorite video poker machines now have an entirely different pay table, they soon notice that their bankroll doesn’t last nearly as long as it used to — and they’re not happy. These players may not have the desire to invest a lot of hours learning proper strategy or to chase promotions like some of us, but they do note when a casino puts on its marquee that some of its machines pay out over 100%. And they’re underwhelmed, even insulted, when a casino advertises that it has hundreds of machines that pay up to 99%. Even those with very few mathematical skills vote with their feet as to where they get the best gambling conditions to win.
Not only the casual players are changing their casinos these days; the serious video poker players are also looking for new opportunities. Casinos they’re abandoning may be saying, “Good riddance.” But from what I hear on every side, these players are taking with them many of the customers the casinos should hate to lose: the friends and relatives who are not knowledgeable players. I get complaints frequently from serious video poker advantage players: “My wife just won’t learn good strategy or practice on the VP software; she insists on playing slots and loses more than I can ever win back with skillful VP play.” Or, “I tell my friends at work that they’d lose less at the casino if they study the games, but they say it’s all luck anyway, so why bother?”
It’s true, however, that knowledgeable VP players, that tiny minority of gamblers, have been impacted by the decrease in good games. But it’s not the end of the world that some think. The fact is that ongoing competition among casinos and the never-ending scramble for business are providing good new playing opportunities all the time. We’re just going to have to work a little harder these days to find them. We may not be able to always go to the most conveniently located casinos; we may have to search high and low for better promotions; we may have to be more flexible in our playing schedule; we may need to learn some new games; we may have to change the denomination level we play. I’ve always said that you shouldn’t marry a casino. Change is the one constant when you talk about casinos.
Good advice: “My advice to the unborn is, don’t be born with a gambling instinct unless you have a good sense of probabilities.”” — Jack Dreyfus of
Dreyfus Mutual Fund
5/8/2003
I’m frequently questioned, even scolded, by frugal fans when they see me playing a less-than-100% variation of video poker. Other well-known successful gamblers, especially writers, have the same problem: Someone sees them at a negative game and speculates, in print and online, that they don’t practice what they preach.
However, to use a cliche, appearances can be deceiving. There’s a big difference between a negative game and a negative play. In my book The Frugal Gambler, I have a chart (on page 34) that categorizes games as positive-expectation games (when played skillfully), negative-expectation games (where the math determines there will always be a long-term loss no matter what money-management systems are used), and potentially positive games. It’s this last category where you may be judging a player wrongly.
The first of the potentially positive games mentioned is “any game played in a tournament format.” This could include the negative games of craps, baccarat, roulette, keno, and slot machines if there’s good tournament equity — the long-term individual cash expectation is greater than its cost.
“Any game played with a coupon” — There’s a long list of non-skill negative games that I’ve played with a good edge because I had a coupon: baccarat, bingo, craps, keno, pai gow poker, roulette, big six, slot machines.
“Any game associated with a slot club or similar rebate program” — I often play the 99.7% Not-So-Ugly ducks (inferior pay table to full-pay classic Deuces Wild, but often the only alternative above the quarter denomination), because slot club cashback and/or bounce-back cash coupons put it well over 100%.
“Any game with a progressive feature” can range from the common video poker machines with a rising jackpot to the occasional bingo, slot machine, Caribbean Stud, or keno high jackpot that turns a negative play into a positive one.
“Any game played as part of a special promotion or with equity considerations” — Good promotions often give rise to a lot of savvy players playing negative video poker machines if there are no pay tables in that casino with a 100%+ payback. If the casino is giving a cruise for a certain number of points, these players figure their theoretical losses on the game itself and see if the cruise value more than makes up for this. If there’s a drawing for a car, they estimate the value of their tickets to see if, again, it has more in equity than their theoretical losses on a negative-expectation game. (Note: Theoretical losses differ greatly from actual losses during one playing session. Since the equity figures are long term, most of these drawing and promotional extras are best for players who will have many chances at these kind of opportunities.)
The last, and perhaps biggest, factor that can make a bad game good is comps. And this is a subject that deserves a column all to itself, so I’ll finish this discourse next week, after I get back from Mississippi where I’m currently spilling my guts to perhaps 60 or more hosts and other casino executives, telling them what customers really want changed in the casino host system.
In the meantime, think about how weird gamblers can be as you read this amazing fact from Casino Wire: “Against bookmakers’ odds of 1,000 to 1, scores of British gamblers every year bet up to £50 pounds ($79) at a pop that Elvis Presley is still alive.”
5/15/2003
Last week I talked about not judging players by the actual games they’re playing. It may be a negative-expectation game, but there may be extras, invisible to a casual onlooker, that make it a positive-expectation play. These could be a tournament, a coupon, a progressive feature, a promotion, a slot club benefit, or some other equity consideration.
However, the biggest trump to turn a negative game into a positive play is the comp card, and this is often a hole card, so it’s not always seen by other players. Free rooms, food, and shows are the usual comps that can be worth much more than the losses that will eventually be sustained by playing less than 100%+ games. But the savvy player at the higher levels who studies each casino’s comp system carefully will find other valuable but less well-known comps: airfare rebates, extra cash bonuses for which they can negotiate in exchange for very heavy play, along with jewelry, liquor, electronics, and other valuable gifts that can be given to friends and families. Some very big players even cross into the lucrative (but gray, in my opinion) area of selling comps.
There are several dangers I would like to point out if you plan to make up your losses at negative games with comps. First, be sure you know how to figure the math accurately for those losses. You really have to keep track of your coin-in.
Second, are you sure you’re playing those negative games accurately enough to achieve the theoretical payback that’s based on computer play? You’ll lose much more than you realize if you aren’t practicing and testing yourself on software tutors.
And third, even if you have all the figuring and accuracy down pat, you need to realize that your actual losses for any one period of time can be much more than the theoretical loss. You have to be sure you have the bankroll to survive the terrible volatility of most casino games, especially video poker. And you have to be sure you have the temperament to hold steady during long losing periods.
But there’s another danger in counting comps to put your plays over 100%. Brad and I did count comps when we first started, and many casual recreational gamblers may always want to do this. And if you were going to take money out of your pocket in the same amount for the rooms, food, shows, and other non-cash perks you get comped, it’s quite correct to count them in your total return.
However, you must be careful in your calculations here. We didn’t count comps in our total return for very long, because we soon were getting so many comps that we were increasing the number of our casino vacations and the luxury of our casino lifestyle to a level that we could never have afforded on our own budget. So we started counting comps as gravy and chose playing opportunities that were over 100% in cash return. If you want to count comps, figure the average amount you’ll lose over the long term by playing at a percentage below 100% in actual cash return. If you can’t afford that loss, you can’t “afford” all those luxury freebies.
A final note here. Not all gamblers want to put forth the extreme effort to study, so necessary when moneymaking in a casino the main goal. The vast majority just want to have as much fun as they can on the money they’ve earmarked for their casino entertainment. No one should judge anyone else as to the worthiness of his goals.
And hey, the most earnest by-the-book gamblers in the world sometimes like to throw a little money on a fun wager when they don’t have any particular skill or edge. That’s why once in a long while you might see me playing Little Green Men or Brad put a couple of dollars on the ponies at the racebook when he has to wait on me to finish up in the beauty salon.
5/27/2003
A story from a frugal fan about the magic word, ask:
“My sister and I had such a good trip to the Gulf Coast that we decided to return a month later and started looking right away for a room. We had a Friday night comp at the XX casino, but it was fully booked due to a tournament. Drats! Didn’t have our June newsletters from marketing at the other casinos yet, so we decided to phone a few and see what we could come up with.
Sis phoned XXX and reached VIP instead of marketing. The host curtly informed her that not only did we not qualify for a free night, but we (using info from both our cards) didn’t even qualify for a discounted rate. This was strange, since marketing at this casino has always been pretty good to us. Marketing wasn’t in yet, so she left a message asking them to contact us.
In the meantime, an hour later, we decided to call a different casino to see what they could offer. Well, Sis still had all the phone numbers in front of her and mistakenly called the same casino back. VIP answered again, but it was a different host speaking. So she decided to ask again. AMAZING! Less than 60 minutes after speaking to the first host, things changed mightily. Now we do qualify for a comped Friday night room. Hard to believe!
Ordinarily, we would not have re-tried VIP, but through this ‘mistake,’ we learned a lesson. Like you say, ‘Ask.’ And now we know to ask, and then ask again.””
BRIEFS
Gambling on the sea and on the go:
Item #1. Within the last year, several major cruise lines have changed the age limits for drinking and gambling on casino ships that are floating outside of U.S. waters. http://casinowire.com/news.asp?id=4804
Item #2. M-gambling (mobile gambling) allows players to buy lottery tickets, bet on sports events, or enter sweepstakes for prizes right over their cell phones, and it’s becoming more popular with European gamblers. http://casinowire.com/news.asp?id=4800
Looking for a frugal blackjack newsletter that’s loaded with strategy advice for blackjack players? Look no further than Henry Tamburin’s Blackjack Insider e-newsletter. The monthly newsletter contains regular columns and articles by some of blackjack’s most noted experts. Some of the popular articles and features include trip reports from LV Pro (a skilled blackjack card counter); reports on where to find the best blackjack games in Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Gulf Coast, and elsewhere; strategy articles for the beginner to advanced player; reviews of new gambling books and software; a schedule of major blackjack tournaments; Q & As; and lots more. You can read the current issue and sign up for your free subscription at http://bjinsider.com/main.shtml.
From a member of a VP discussion forum: “”As Jean Scott often notes in her posts about bounce-back for Vegas locals, it really matters where you put your gambling action, and how you do it. For example, the Palms rewards a high daily-play average, which you can ruin with a short play period on even one other day. Station Casinos want a given amount of action per quarter, and you run into diminishing bounce-back returns if you play beyond that amount.””
From the Internet: “”It’s gambling when you win and gaming when you lose.”
5/29/2003
An interesting post on vpFree (a lively Internet forum that discusses all things video poker; subscribe at
[email protected]):
“I had a modest budget of $600 for the weekend’s VP play. I went to the Palms to redeem my free play and to have dinner. Well, I lost $300 in the .25 Jokers so fast I thought the Joker had been taken hostage by terrorists. TWO quads in three hours (and they’re supposed to come up every 104 hands, I believe). Then $200 in FPDW .25 went away equally quickly. Disgusted, resigned to a weekend of watching Annika What’s-her-face not make the cut at the PGA, I put the last $100 in a $1 10/7 DB. I was playing my LAST FIVE credits, and made trip fives…then a straight…then a full house…then quad fives…then quad fours! $650 and a return from the dead! I went to dinner with a song in my heart, tap in my shoes, and money in my pocket.
“I lost it all back in four hours after dinner.
“I took the next day off, puttering around the house. I had $100 of bounceback scattered around town that HAD to be redeemed that day. So I went and played fetch…then over to Fiesta Henderson. Joker .25….quad. Quad. Quad. Straight flush. Cash out up $140. It’s time to play Deuces! The machine behaved like a trained seal, and gave me the ducks twice for a net win of $500. The dead have once again arisen!
“Net win = $40
Aging = One year subtracted from lifespan
“God, this is the swingiest game on Earth! It just goes to show you that a trip bankroll of $1,000 for a three-day weekend is by NO means excessive!
“(BTW, all coin-in was chalked up during 3X or 5X point times so net comp value was about 0.75% on about 17K of play; about $125 in comps were earned. The rewards for survival!)”
This great post by Kevin Lewis got me musing about the wild roller-coaster ride that playing VP takes us all on.
“”It’s the bankroll, stupid!””
More good VP players are cut down by the lack of an adequate bankroll than by any mean ol’ casinos.
“”It’s the slot club benefits, stupid!””
I know of NO successful (that is, long-term winning) VP player who depends entirely on profits from the game itself. In fact, the more you chase promotions and maximize slot club benefits, the more successful you’ll be. And for the great majority of players, most who don’t really have a bankroll (financial and/or psychological) big enough for a close-to-zero risk of ruin, bennies (extra benefits) are an absolute necessity in order to have a sporting chance of success.
Smile For the Day: “”In the case of an earthquake hitting Las Vegas, be sure to go straight to the keno lounge. Nothing ever gets hit there.”” — An anonymous casino boss.