Sorry – I didn’t mean to keep you waiting this long. Here is the #6 from 2001 to help you reduce those scary bankroll requirements I talked about in Part 9 on September 9th:
6. Always choose the BEST playing opportunities. That means picking games that, with the extra cash benefits, give the highest possible total return. All things being equal, the bigger the edge you have, the smaller the bankroll you’ll need. Let’s go back to quarter Deuces Wild [classic schedule]. If you play it at a casino with .2% cashback, then your bankroll requirement drops from $8,800 to $6,800. Play it at the Gold Coast in Las Vegas on double-points day [no longer an option] or at another casino where perhaps you can piggyback a good promotion onto good cashback, and if your added value is .5%, you only need $5,000. Choosing playing opportunities that have a lower bankroll requirement [because of a higher total play EV] means that you’ll be more likely to get to the winning long-term faster.
I know, I know – there aren’t as many good playing opportunities these days as in 2001 when I wrote the above – and very few 100% games any more. But looking hard enough and being very flexible as to when and where they play, many people are still finding benefits that will make under-100% games go positive.
Sometimes there are valid situations where you have to consider things other than just EV, such as volatility or available bankroll for a particular denomination or per-hour expectation. It’s your choice, of course, but choosing less than the best EV games for reasons like ” not so boring” or “like variety” will certainly increase your long-term losses and/or reduce your winnings. Continuing to beat on this same drum – you can’t beat the math!
Don, you are figuring right on, if your goal is to have the most playing time!
I usually try to do the following math and often wonder if I’m right. (When I find four deuces or a royal, I know I’m right, otherwise I wonder.)
On a 5 cent machine – say, deuces – that I can find that offers 97.5%, I can play about $150 an hour. Means I should lose about $3.75 an hour.
On a 25 cent machine – same deuces – that I can find that offers 98.5%, at the same speed I can play about $750 an hour. Means I should lose about $11.25 an hour.
Looks rather straightforward that I should either not be playing at all or I should be playing the nickels. Do I figure correctly?
Don