More from 2001.
3. Choose ONLY playing opportunities where the total return is 100% or higher. Total return is the sum of the machine return plus any cash benefits. For example, if you play deuces wild [classic schedule] at a casino with cashback of .25%, like the Suncoast in Vegas, your total return would be 100.7 + .25 = 100.95%. If you played 9/6 Jacks or Better at the Suncoast on double-points day, your total return would be right at 100% ( 95.5% + .5%). It is IMPOSSIBLE to win in the long term if you play at less than 100%. I’m sorry to have to break his news to you – but, although you can possibly be winners in the short run, you can NEVER beat the math in the long term. There is no betting system that will turn a negative game into a positive one.
[This Suncoast play is no longer available. Most local casinos give free play insstead of cash these days, and the rate is usually lower for 100%+ games or they are not eligible for promotions. However, the basic concept has not changed. Read again those last two sentence above – this will NEVER change!]
To answer Larry’s question:
We always play over 100% but that is the EV of the game PLUS the cash or cash-equivalent benefits. I do not figure comps in our real return, although they do have real value and enrich our lives considerably. I have explained this in more detail in all of my books.
I’ve read most of what you’ve written over the years. My understanding is that you started out as nickel or quarter players, but your bankroll now lets you play the highest-limit that you can find. Is this all due to playing so-called “Full-pay” machines of 98 or 99% return (100+% return being all but impossible to find any more), or is there more to it?
I know you’ve worked the comp and freebie system to its limits over the years, but I’m not counting your storage lockers full of casino jackets and TV/VCR’s as part of your bankroll. I’m talking about pure gambling cash bankroll only.
Hi, Jean ~ Living in Florida, we haven’t had any luck finding anything even close to a decent pay schedule. Very frustrating! So I guess the few times we do play here, we have to rely on short term luck. By the way, we were in Vegas a couple of weeks ago ~ we were eating dinner at the Silverton buffet with some relatives and our cousin’s adorable little granddaughter. Happened to notice you and Brad with a group almost right next to us, but we didn’t want to bother you while you were eating! You two look great! We’ll be back in Vegas in April ~ can’t wait!
Jean
When will you be getting to changing machines? Next to pay tables, I believe that players lack knowledge of when not to leave a given machine. It seems to me most players switch machines quite frequently and are impacting their ability to win.
Thanks
Jan