Comments on: Losing at VP

By: George Mikutowicz

George Mikutowicz — Sun, 23 May 2010 18:32:34 +0000

It is very easy to overstate the value of comps especially if you happen to be on a long loosing streak.I live 85 miles from the strip so to me a room comp is worth only $30 which is what gas costs for the round trip. If gambling is the only reason for going to Vegas as opposed to shows,dancing,shopping, dinner etc. then I will make a special trip if there is at least $100 available for the taking in the form of free play.Recently South Point, Gold Coast,Palms ,Terrible’s and some others have made it possible to reach the $100 mark quite often.
George

By: Kevin Lewis

Kevin Lewis — Sat, 22 May 2010 18:29:23 +0000

Let’s say you are playing a mildly negative game like NSUD or JOB. Let’s also say that you average 8K coin-in/day, and you play about 30 total days/year. This equates to 240K coin-in/year, which is substantial. Figure on playing NSUD, for example, at a casino which gives 0.1% cashback or comps. The inherent -EV of the game is (-0.27), which equates to an expected loss of about $660. However, you will get that 0.1% back, which means that you now have to make up a net loss of $420. Many casinos send quarterly offers; if you receive 4 offers of, say, a room for two nights+$X food comps, and often, free play, and you are able to take advantage of all four of those offers, then as long as each offer gives you $105 or more in value, then you have indeed broken even. A similar scenario could be constructed with .25 FPJOB but 0.3% comps/cashback.
You can work from the other end of the equation, as well. Figure out what a room for two or three nights (in the future) is worth to you, then calculate the maximum amount of coin-in at the -EV of the game(s) you intend to play will be, to stay under that threshold. Of course, you will not know for certain whether your play did in fact generate enough benefits until you get a subsequent mailer from that casino.
I agree that direct comps/cashback rarely make a -EV game positive any more, but if you assign a fair value to mailed offers, the games can still be over 100%.

By: jim mason

jim mason — Sat, 22 May 2010 06:46:43 +0000

Kevin- I agree with your suggestions, they work well. However, We push 5-10k thru per day for a week at a time, 4-5x per year, 25¢ single line. If the game is not over 100%, there are not enough freebies to make up the negative EV. (“We have met the enemy and he is short pay”)

By: Norm G

Norm G — Fri, 21 May 2010 14:36:41 +0000

Hey, Jean, get wound up. While you’re at it, how about favoring your loyal readers with your thoughts on the EV of Double Bonus and Double Double Bonus poker.

Thanks.

By: Kevin Lewis

Kevin Lewis — Thu, 20 May 2010 23:07:04 +0000

Jim: since I was a long-time local but am now a visitor, I know what you’re talking about, and share your frustration. However, visitors can often use perks that are worth little or nothing to locals. If I get a free room, that’s worth $40 or $50 a night, minimum. Example: I have an offer from South Point for $50 free play, $50 resort credit (which I can use for meals), and two free nights. I also have an offer from El Cortez for three free nights, $75 free play, and $50 food credits. Given that I’m a .25 single-line player, I doubt if I would have generated enough bounceback if I were a local to even come close to the $200+ value of each of these offers. So quite often, the visitor gets more in real terms. The casinos with the best VP, that usually have a locals player base, realize that they can’t afford to be too generous with players that are already skilled and knowledgeable; as far as they know, though, a visitor will be likely to play longer, play worse games, and play with less skill than the local. Therefore, the visitor is more valuable to them on a per-day basis than the skilled local.

Of course, you can confound that equation by playing with as small a -EV as possible, in essence, acting like a local. The one thing they can’t do (yet) is gauge your VP skill level, so they’ll assume you are a member of The Clueless.

Another factor operating here is that you need to keep your ear to the ground and find out which casinos are best for offers for out-of-towners. Main Street Station, for example, gives out room+food offers for relatively little play, and it doesn’t seem to matter whether you play good or bad machines (unlike, say, Palms, which sends you ZIPPO if you only play the +EV games–or even NSUD). They have .25 FPDB, and though their comp rate is paltry, the subsequent mailed offers make up for it.

By: Rob Reid

Rob Reid — Thu, 20 May 2010 19:58:33 +0000

Jean, I agree with you. Until I put together a spreadsheet that allowed my to figure the hourly loss/gain on various games with varying levels of cashback/bounceback and hands per hour, I was not able to see the real impact of the fractions of percentage difference between the games. And you are right, while the difference between 99.54% return and 99.17% return might not seem like much, trying to bridge the increased gap with promotions and multipliers is just about impossible. It’s hard enough to get even or slightly positive just with 9/6 JOB. I think this is why you don’t see much full pay Pick’em anymore. Low volitility and an easy strategy, combined with only a .05% theoretical loss to recover made it an easy game for an underbankrolled player to make positive.

Another advantage of having a spreadsheet calculate net hourly loss (if you have a negative expectation play) is to help you understand what you are “paying” for all those comps that look so attractive. They often end up coming at an above market cost.

By: Rich

Rich — Thu, 20 May 2010 19:57:28 +0000

My dear Mrs Scott,
The key to your mathematical treatise is the “long term” results. I believe that means playing over 40,000 hands. At 500 hands per hour that would be a minimum of 80 hours to get the long term results. I know that when I play I’m more likely playing 300 hands per hour so I would need over 133 hours of play to achieve those theoretical “long term” results. And, of course, there is no guarantee that the +/- EV will be approached. If I play 8 to 10 hours a day I feel pretty beat up and probably only play 6 to 8 hours a day. I would need to play 13 to 19 days to play the number of hands needed for the “Long Term” results. In our 7 to 8 trips to Las Vegas every year we never stay and play for more than 3 nights (usually we stay 2 nights). We have a limited gambling budget and play the least volatile games we can find. I’ve only gone through my entire gambling budget once in the 25 years we’ve been going to Las Vegas (we only went twice a year for the first 23 years)! I only ask that I get too many beers and decent play time for my money. The comps and mailers offset our losses enough to keep us returning as often as we do. I, for whatever reason, do much better when I’m drinking beer. I never drink two nights in a row so my track record has become pretty obvious. My wife can’t understand it either.
We hope that you and Brad have good fortune in all that you do…..Rich

By: Bobby98604

Bobby98604 — Thu, 20 May 2010 15:18:42 +0000

I agree with Daniel. I can’t complain about the royals…I had six of them last year out of ten trips to Nevada. But even so, the quads don’t seem to appear.

By: Don Rust

Don Rust — Thu, 20 May 2010 12:53:51 +0000

The absence of positive payoff machines makes it more imperative that a player stay within the comfort level of loss. The long term loss does not accurately reflect the probably session loss (or win). Because of that bugaboo volatility, session loss varies widely from long term expectation.

Level of play is about the only way to keep from getting wiped out. Particularly when you have to add in comps to make a game positive.

Don

By: jim mason

jim mason — Wed, 19 May 2010 23:08:17 +0000

As a visitor I am unable to make up the loss on
a negative game with promotions that
are always geared to locals. Free rooms
help but it is not enough of an edge.
Bottom line-If the game is not over 100%
I will not play.