I have been getting questions right and left from players pleading with me to give them more information on how to cope with the increasing torrent of casino cutbacks. So, I was just preparing to write on this subject when Bob Dancer recently addressed these issues right here in the Gambling with an Edge section. You need to read “What Now?” He, as I have also often stressed, was not able to mention specific plays at specific casinos; there is no one-size-fits-all here. But he gave some general ideas and options that can give some guidance to those who are looking to continue playing skilled VP.
Then, as I was thinking about what other ideas I could add to this subject, I decided to look at my past blogs to see what I had already written. I certainly don’t remember everything I write and I hate to be repetitious! In my search I came across a 4-part series titled “When Casinos Cut VP Benefits.” What surprised me was how long ago I wrote this. Part 1 appeared on March 19, 2015, followed by the next three parts off and on into April. No wonder we VP players are worn down; we have been suffering these gradual cuts for years now.
I thoroughly discussed the problems – and possible coping options – in this series that I would encourage VP students to read – or re-read. Sad to say I really don’t have any new ideas. I try to stay positive as much as possible but sometimes it is hard to sugar-coat the bitter reality.
Although I find it difficult to write negatively, even when it is the truth, I am glad that sometimes my readers will use the “Comment” section to “tell it like it is,” at least from their point of view. And I always encourage you to read that section which sometimes has as much helpful information as the blog itself. With that in mind, I am going to end this blog with a “comment” that appeared back during that series (2015), written by Kevin Lewis, a long-time reader. I don’t always agree with Kevin and his oft “black outlook,” but here he has nailed a reality we all must take into consideration.
I knew dozens of wannabes back during the big VP explosion. They all went broke, with a single exception, even though Vegas was so full of 102%+ opportunities–many of them with very little risk–that the problem was not to find such plays; it was to choose the very best ones. At that time, you could play in a flawed fashion, in terms of game selection, precision of play, etc., and still realize a profit. Not so today–ONE hole in your play and all the money leaks out.
For that matter, it’s quite possible to get destroyed on the best plays available today. Rarely can you manage to get above 100.5%, so any significant royal drought and the ol’ bankroll takes a dive. That’s the crux of the problem with video poker in general–when your overall return, and your journey into positive territory, utterly depends on an event which should take over 40,000 bets to happen occurring as often as it is “supposed” to, you run a substantial risk of going broke, or at least losing. This would be true even if the game returned 102%.
Unfortunately, most of the (very) few remaining plays require forays into High Volatility Land, so a player who was comfortably ensconced with low risk of ruin and is forced to change, because of destruction of the games/plays he was used to, will often find himself out of his (bankroll) depth. That’s what is killing players, either “advantage” or “skilled,” today–they are taking double hits: lower EV AND higher volatility. It’s amazing how quickly you can get snuffed out when you’re moving 20K an hour through a machine with only an 0.5% edge (such as playing NSUD at Coasts on a 7x point day). For an all-too-brief period, this problem could have been addressed via comps, mailers, and promos making up for loss of EV–but recently, EVERY casino has tightened the screws. Now, you’re lucky if after running $500,000 through a machine, you get a complimentary T-shirt.
For the above reasons, I consider VP to be unplayable, particularly in Vegas, even though nominally positive plays still exist. I am reminded of a British politician’s comment comparing diplomacy to making love to an elephant: “There is no pleasure in it, you run the risk of being crushed to death, and it is years before you see any results!” He could have been talking about video poker in 2015.
And maybe even more true in 2018!
We stayed at Orleans 23-23 November. It was moderately crowded and the poker room is still first-rate.
Even though all tier credits expire at the end of the year, I played some mid-level VP (DW pNSU, 98.9% and DWB 25-13-4-3, 98.8%) to clock the points. I may not have counted the hands perfectly, but the “$50-divided-by-house-advantage” rule seems to apply. Theoretical coin-in is $46 and $42 per tier credit (respectively) on these games, and the meter on the machine confirmed this–sort of. It doesn’t show running tier credits, so I would play 100 hands, and then take the card out and reinsert it; and sure enough, there were a couple more tier credits. Bonus points accumulated steadily at approximately 0.6 per hand or $0.48 per dollar on both games.
Calculated coin-in for Sapphire is approximately $34,500 and $31,400 on these games, and the expected loss with “perfect play” is $375 for both. Orleans has relatively few high-denomination games, but they do have some quarter 5x DW pNSU games a long way from the poker room, near the Blackjack pits and the Alligator Bar. On these machines, it would take about 5200 hands at $6.75 each to reach or maintain Sapphire. Here’s a possible scenario:
1. Estimate how many times next year you will be visiting Boyd properties; then subtract one or two for contingencies.
2. Divide $34,500 (or the corresponding number for your favorite game) by this number to get required coin-in per trip.
3. On each trip, play this amount into the appropriate machine, preferably on a multi-line game if available, and preferably in one session or as few sessions as possible, to minimize non-tier-credit hands at the end of a session.
With perfect or near-perfect play, the expected loss to reach Sapphire is approximately $375, and is constant across all games. That’s probably less than two weekends at Orleans, with the resort fee. If you’re not already Sapphire and getting comps and bonus points, you would probably want to reach that happy state as quickly as possible. Playing 5200 hands on a 5x pNSU machine would take about 28 hours of play at three hands per minute, or 22 hours at four hands per minute, with some delays for W2-G forms if you get multiple non-wild royals at $1,000 each, or dealt deuces at $1250.
We also visited South Point, which also has a good poker room and relatively good Video Poker. If you play $0.50 or more per hand, you can get real NSU Deuces wild–just like at Gold Coast last time I was there. I went out of the poker tournament early and played a couple of hours of that, so we’ll see if I get any offers from them. That’s plan B in case Boyd continues to go downhill. And there’s still Laughlin.
All calculations in this post have been checked three times, but errors may still have sneaked in, and I take no responsibility for them. If you find any, feel free to tear into me.
And finally, many thanks to Ms. Scott for all her hard work; and good luck, good counting, and good calculating to all.
I am emerald ( but will soon be demoted to sapphire next year) I received an email about a cruise for Holland America. So I decided to check it out. I clicked on the list of sailings and it said to log in to your b connected account for more information . So I logged into my b connected account. There I clicked on tier benefits. Found the cruise and clicked on it . Got a message that said log into your account for more information- but I was all ready logged it. After several attempts I gave up. Then I read the disclaimer( like Jean Scott says read the fine print)- have to cruise by December 31. Well not sure about other people but this was a little late notice as my December is filled up with the holidays etc. Hasanyone else attempted to check this out. I am mostly curious as to the big deal on this. Truthfully I would rather forgo the cruise and get easier tier credits on video poker .
What are we supposed to play now that VP is no longer a paying option? I have found this true all across the U.S. Besides the pay tables changing, and only getting half as many points as on other machines, what should we play to even make it worth going to the casinos anymore. The only one that still pays is Barona, but flying all the way across the country is not a viable option for several times per month. Suggestions please on games to play to at least make some money – not the $750,000/year that I used to make on VP, but at least something!
To Mattbob fr Indy. You are foolish to say the Casino’s are here to win. The average player is not playing to make a killing . Just for a little relaxation and the possibility of sometimes winning. The way the Casino’s are run now u do not have a chance of winning unless u are a very good player. I would not venture to LV fr Indy for a few plays at VP and a free Buffet. There are Casino’s closer to your home. Another reason for not going to LV anymore is the Casino’s nickel and dime u . For the hassle and with the airplane experience terrible why Come?
I am the lowest of low-rollers. I play $5 table games, 2-4 limit poker, quarter VP, and make $10-$20 sports bets. I get to Vegas once or twice a year.
I don’t like the changes to slot clubs, raised table limits, 6-5 blackjack, diminished pay tables, or resort fees any more than anybody else. But prices rise over time. Candy bars used to be a nickel.
We can all lament how it used to be in the good old days, but the fact is that time marches on and prices go up. Casinos are in business to make money, not to give the public a “fair” shot at their bankroll. We can certainly complain about changes we don’t like and deny them our patronage if we feel strongly enough; but I think it’s a bit naive to expect these corporations to make less money just because some of us are used to extracting value.
For my part, I’ll keep coming to Vegas and playing until I think I can get more entertainment value somewhere else. Then I’ll stop coming and let the casinos figure out if they want to lure me back. But I don’t think I’ll waste a lot of energy on resenting them for pricing me out of the market. That’s their business decision to make.
JEAN VERY GOOD ARTICLE ABOUT V.P.
NOW, BRING OUT THE FAT LADY TO SING (KATE SMITH).
I think it is fair game to lament the demise of good VP, but I think it is wrong to post an indignant tirade as some people do. Technology and the internet has made it much easier for people like me to study the games and play at a much higher return. Back when most people played poorly, the casinos could sweat the few top players and still make money from VP. As that slowly changed, their VP machines became a loss leader, then just a loss as more people turned to only playing VP and playing well. (This has not happened for black jack) It is wrong to think that the casinos would or even could continue to offer games that lost money. If you were a restaurant and found you were offering a dish that lost money, you would either take the item off the menu, raise the price, or take away some of the “extras” that came with the meal in order to make it profitable. I think this is what is happening with VP.
That’s the recent development that really surprises me–the sudden destruction of “senior days” and senior promos all over town. These were wildly popular–for example, the play-and-get-buffets promos at Boyd. Sure, these weren’t profitable for the casino per se, but they got people in the door. Yeah, some people would only play that minimum amount, get the buffet, and go home–but how many stayed and lost ten or twenty times the cost of that “free” buffet? It’s the time-honored casino rule: get people in the door! But like so much else, that seems to have been forgotten in the way the “new” Vegas is being run. It’s all about counting the beans now.
Another thing that really bothers me is the simultaneity of all these changes. The five major players in the Vegas locals’ market all gutted their senior programs in the same week! This suggests that there is only phantom competition among these entities, and what you really have is collusion. I’ve asked myself what would happen if some maverick decided to open up a casino with 3:2 blackjack and full-pay video poker and a generous slot club, etc. etc. My first thought was that he would make money hand over fist. But then I realized that would only be until he was invited to visit the bottom of Lake Mead.
So disappointed South Point got rid of their senior tournament!
This may sound selfish, but I believe that keeping whatever good VP one should find should be kept quiet. Why, you may ask. I believe that the casinos have been monitoring sites such as the Advisor where those who love video poker have offered up freely any and all good VP that they have found.Pause a moment and think about that. These bean counters don’t want us to win and they have changed, removed and butchered the game, all in the name of share holders profits. If that wasn’t enough, they then bar those who actually may be winners. They want us to go away while they skin the uneducated with so called penny machines, multi line bandits and the unfathomable new “entertainment”machines. Look around your favorite casinos, the demise of VP continues while the new machines flourish. I believe that the local casinos and other outlying casinos are the last bastion of playable VP left – and their demise if forthcoming. I only patronize casinos where I feel I have a fighting chance – and there are not many left.