Even though all tier credits expire at the end of the year, I played some mid-level VP (DW pNSU, 98.9% and DWB 25-13-4-3, 98.8%) to clock the points. I may not have counted the hands perfectly, but the “$50-divided-by-house-advantage” rule seems to apply. Theoretical coin-in is $46 and $42 per tier credit (respectively) on these games, and the meter on the machine confirmed this–sort of. It doesn’t show running tier credits, so I would play 100 hands, and then take the card out and reinsert it; and sure enough, there were a couple more tier credits. Bonus points accumulated steadily at approximately 0.6 per hand or $0.48 per dollar on both games.

Calculated coin-in for Sapphire is approximately $34,500 and $31,400 on these games, and the expected loss with “perfect play” is $375 for both. Orleans has relatively few high-denomination games, but they do have some quarter 5x DW pNSU games a long way from the poker room, near the Blackjack pits and the Alligator Bar. On these machines, it would take about 5200 hands at $6.75 each to reach or maintain Sapphire. Here’s a possible scenario:

1. Estimate how many times next year you will be visiting Boyd properties; then subtract one or two for contingencies.
2. Divide $34,500 (or the corresponding number for your favorite game) by this number to get required coin-in per trip.
3. On each trip, play this amount into the appropriate machine, preferably on a multi-line game if available, and preferably in one session or as few sessions as possible, to minimize non-tier-credit hands at the end of a session.

With perfect or near-perfect play, the expected loss to reach Sapphire is approximately $375, and is constant across all games. That’s probably less than two weekends at Orleans, with the resort fee. If you’re not already Sapphire and getting comps and bonus points, you would probably want to reach that happy state as quickly as possible. Playing 5200 hands on a 5x pNSU machine would take about 28 hours of play at three hands per minute, or 22 hours at four hands per minute, with some delays for W2-G forms if you get multiple non-wild royals at $1,000 each, or dealt deuces at $1250.

We also visited South Point, which also has a good poker room and relatively good Video Poker. If you play $0.50 or more per hand, you can get real NSU Deuces wild–just like at Gold Coast last time I was there. I went out of the poker tournament early and played a couple of hours of that, so we’ll see if I get any offers from them. That’s plan B in case Boyd continues to go downhill. And there’s still Laughlin.

All calculations in this post have been checked three times, but errors may still have sneaked in, and I take no responsibility for them. If you find any, feel free to tear into me.

And finally, many thanks to Ms. Scott for all her hard work; and good luck, good counting, and good calculating to all.

I don’t like the changes to slot clubs, raised table limits, 6-5 blackjack, diminished pay tables, or resort fees any more than anybody else. But prices rise over time. Candy bars used to be a nickel.

We can all lament how it used to be in the good old days, but the fact is that time marches on and prices go up. Casinos are in business to make money, not to give the public a “fair” shot at their bankroll. We can certainly complain about changes we don’t like and deny them our patronage if we feel strongly enough; but I think it’s a bit naive to expect these corporations to make less money just because some of us are used to extracting value.

For my part, I’ll keep coming to Vegas and playing until I think I can get more entertainment value somewhere else. Then I’ll stop coming and let the casinos figure out if they want to lure me back. But I don’t think I’ll waste a lot of energy on resenting them for pricing me out of the market. That’s their business decision to make.

Another thing that really bothers me is the simultaneity of all these changes. The five major players in the Vegas locals’ market all gutted their senior programs in the same week! This suggests that there is only phantom competition among these entities, and what you really have is collusion. I’ve asked myself what would happen if some maverick decided to open up a casino with 3:2 blackjack and full-pay video poker and a generous slot club, etc. etc. My first thought was that he would make money hand over fist. But then I realized that would only be until he was invited to visit the bottom of Lake Mead.