Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas

I have been getting questions right and left from players pleading with me to give them more information on how to cope with the increasing torrent of casino cutbacks. So, I was just preparing to write on this subject when Bob Dancer recently addressed these issues right here in the Gambling with an Edge section.  You need to read “What Now?”  He, as I have also often stressed, was not able to mention specific plays at specific casinos; there is no one-size-fits-all here.  But he gave some general ideas and options that can give some guidance to those who are looking to continue playing skilled VP.

Then, as I was thinking about what other ideas I could add to this subject, I decided to look at my past blogs to see what I had already written. I certainly don’t remember everything I write and I hate to be repetitious!  In my search I came across a 4-part series titled “When Casinos Cut VP Benefits.”  What surprised me was how long ago I wrote this.  Part 1 appeared on March 19, 2015, followed by the next three parts off and on into April.  No wonder we VP players are worn down; we have been suffering these gradual cuts for years now.

I thoroughly discussed the problems – and possible coping options – in this series that I would encourage  VP students to read – or re-read.  Sad to say I really don’t have any new ideas.  I try to stay positive as much as possible but sometimes it is hard to sugar-coat the bitter reality.

Although I find it difficult to write negatively, even when it is the truth, I am glad that sometimes my readers will use the “Comment” section to “tell it like it is,” at least from their point of view.  And I always encourage you to read that section which sometimes has as much helpful information as the blog itself. With that in mind, I am going to end this blog with a “comment” that appeared back during that series (2015), written by Kevin Lewis, a long-time reader.  I don’t always agree with Kevin and his oft “black outlook,” but here he has nailed a reality we all must take into consideration.

I knew dozens of wannabes back during the big VP explosion. They all went broke, with a single exception, even though Vegas was so full of 102%+ opportunities–many of them with very little risk–that the problem was not to find such plays; it was to choose the very best ones. At that time, you could play in a flawed fashion, in terms of game selection, precision of play, etc., and still realize a profit. Not so today–ONE hole in your play and all the money leaks out.

For that matter, it’s quite possible to get destroyed on the best plays available today. Rarely can you manage to get above 100.5%, so any significant royal drought and the ol’ bankroll takes a dive. That’s the crux of the problem with video poker in general–when your overall return, and your journey into positive territory, utterly depends on an event which should take over 40,000 bets to happen occurring as often as it is “supposed” to, you run a substantial risk of going broke, or at least losing. This would be true even if the game returned 102%.

Unfortunately, most of the (very) few remaining plays require forays into High Volatility Land, so a player who was comfortably ensconced with low risk of ruin and is forced to change, because of destruction of the games/plays he was used to, will often find himself out of his (bankroll) depth. That’s what is killing players, either “advantage” or “skilled,” today–they are taking double hits: lower EV AND higher volatility. It’s amazing how quickly you can get snuffed out when you’re moving 20K an hour through a machine with only an 0.5% edge (such as playing NSUD at Coasts on a 7x point day). For an all-too-brief period, this problem could have been addressed via comps, mailers, and promos making up for loss of EV–but recently, EVERY casino has tightened the screws. Now, you’re lucky if after running $500,000 through a machine, you get a complimentary T-shirt.

For the above reasons, I consider VP to be unplayable, particularly in Vegas, even though nominally positive plays still exist. I am reminded of a British politician’s comment comparing diplomacy to making love to an elephant: “There is no pleasure in it, you run the risk of being crushed to death, and it is years before you see any results!” He could have been talking about video poker in 2015.

And maybe even more true in 2018!