When to Change Machines

Awhile back there was a very long – and sometimes heated – discussion on the vpFREE forum about losing streaks and when to move from one machine or game to another.  Some of the “math people” chimed in with numbers, and formulas, and percentages – all good information to prove their points.  However, I finally came into the discussion to help out those who just wanted some general guidelines without doing any complex calculations.

Here were my non-math comments:

If you are doing a negative play, move around and change machines and games as much as you want, for any old reason, logical or not.  Less play means less exposure to the casino edge – and long-term, it leads to lower losses.

If you are doing a positive play, don’t move unless you have a “valid” reason, such as going to a lower denomination because of bankroll considerations.  It could be because of physical factors: a nearby smoker is putting your health at risk, or cold air is coming down right on your shoulders and giving you discomfort.   It might be psychological, i.e., you’re in a losing streak and you are tempted to go “on tilt” and might decide to stray from basic strategy. Or, you get so upset that you aren’t thinking straight and make strategy errors. In these cases, a better option might be to go take a walk, get some fresh air, go take a nap, etc. etc., rather than going to another machine.

Streaks happen!  Change machines whenever you want to, for whatever reason.  Just don’t think that changing between two machines with the same paytable is going to change the long-term odds. You just can’t know in advance whether the new machine is going to be better or worse in the short-term. I always say it is a waste of brain cells to try to predict future results on any video poker machine.

What concerns me most in this area are the people who change games frequently in one session, usually moving from one with a better EV to one with a lower one. But I see players all the time go back and forth every few minutes, hoping to find a game that is “luckier.” No one can switch games that often – not even a knowledgeable player – without make strategy errors, momentarily forgetting what game they are playing. It is hard enough to switch games from one day to the next and not suffer from momentary lack of concentration. And the sad thing about all this is sometimes I know the people who are doing this and I know they think they are “skilled” players – and then I hear them complain about their long losing streaks.  All VP players will suffer losing streaks – even those who always choose the best EV games and have learned accurate strategies – but they have a much better chance of “recovering” than the “jumpers” looking for “lucky” machines.

I am trying to say this kindly but it is a message that needs to be taken seriously: You can’t just talk the talk; you have to walk the walk. Some players might be happier if they just accept in their mind that they really just want to be recreational gamblers. And I am not criticizing this goal; that is a perfectly acceptable goal for many players.