In last week’s column I gave the rules for when you should choose an unsuited AK, AQ or AJ in Double Bonus, and when you should choose the A by itself. Since everybody has access to that article on-line, perhaps you should review it before you continue with this one.
The question I get most about these rules is: “Why?” Looking for the presence of low cards and off-suit tens seems strange. So this article addresses the “how come?”
In Double Bonus, four aces pay a big dividend. Drawing four cards to a single ace converts into four aces about one time in 4000. Not very often, but since the hand pays $800 to the dollar player, the 1-in-4000 chance is worth 50¢. Not a trivial amount, to be sure, but drawing three cards to AK, AQ or AJ is worth about $2.25. Under perfect conditions, holding the A by itself is worth $2.27. But if two or more things are in the hand to “poison” the A, then the value of holding the A drops to about $2.24.
What kind of thing can poison the A? For one thing, flush interference. In comparing A♥ K♠ 9♥ 7♣ 4♦ with A♥ K♠ 9♦ 7♣ 4d, the value of the A in the first hand is $2.24 and its value in the second is $2.27. The reason for the difference is the difficulty in getting flushes. In the first hand, there are 11 hearts still in the deck and flushes will come about every 544 hands. In the second hand, there are 12 hearts still in the deck and flushes come about every 362 times. That one extra heart in the deck makes a lot of difference.
Also, low straight interference is important. Compare A♣ J♠ 9♥ 7♣ 6♦ with A♣ J♠ 9♥ 7♣ 5♦. In the first case there are four 5s in the deck with which to make the A-low straight. In the second case there are only three 5s in the deck. Much more difficult, and worth almost a penny all by itself.
The third factor is the presence of an off-suit ten. This lowers the value of the A by almost a penny, the same as the presence of a 2,3,4 or 5 did. But what it does more than that is to decrease the value of the AK, AQ or AJ by well over 2¢.
There are a large number of players who believe that concentrating on distinctions such as these is a waste of time. And it well might be, if you are a recreational player with an outside source of income. But profitable opportunities in video poker are becoming scarcer and scarcer. Those of us trying to financially make it on our video poker abilities must learn to play smarter.
If you are happy playing for the stakes you are playing now, fine. But if you wish to move up in stakes to take advantage of casino invitational promotions and nicer amenities, then you need to increase your bankroll. One way to do that is to make every play as accurately as possible. That includes not letting a penny here and a penny there go by.
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