It Depends

I was helping Bonnie learn an advanced square dancing move called “Cast a Shadow.” (I know this is my hobby and not yours, but bear with me. We’ll get to video poker very shortly.) This is a move that starts out with two parallel lines composed of four dancers in each line.

Without describing the move in detail, I was asking her in which direction the dancers on the ends of the lines turned first. First she guessed “right,” (which I told her was wrong), and so then she guessed “left” (which I told her was also wrong.) This frustrated her. She (correctly) knew the only ways to turn were left and right and now I was telling her neither was correct.

Actually the dancers are supposed to turn AWAY from the other dancers in the line. So if this dancer happened to start out on the right end of the line, that dancer should turn right. If that dancer happened to start out at the left end of the line, that dancer should turn left. Bonnie agreed with the instruction, but wished it weren’t so complicated.

At the easier levels of square dancing, some moves are defined so that you always start with the right hand (like “swing thru”) and some moves always start with the left hand (like “allemande left”). In the more advanced levels of square dancing — and life — more and more of the moves fall into the “it depends” category.

The same “it depends” thinking often applies to video poker.

When you are first learning Jacks or Better, for example, it’s correct to say that 4-card flushes are less valuable than 3-card royals (e.g. AKQ, AKJ, AKT, AQJ, AQT, AJT, KQJ, KQT, KJT, QJT). As you become more advanced, you learn it depends on which 3-card royal we’re talking about and what the fifth card is.

Similarly, in Jacks or Better, a high pair is ALWAYS better than these 3-card royals. But when you go to Double Bonus, Double Double Bonus, and other “similar” games, sometimes this is no longer true. And sometimes it again depends on the fifth card in the hand.

Another example is whether it’s better to gamble at (pick any two casinos). The correct answer depends on what stakes you play for? What games do you know how to play? What promotions are going on at the time? Are you a local or out-of-towner? Do you need to get a certain amount of play done so you get your standard mailer? Are things such as entertaining others in your party a factor? Do you feel safer at one of the casinos? Et cetera. No casino can possibly afford to be looser in all respects than every other casino. Each casino has its vulnerabilities and the better players look to exploit them. And the correct answer will usually be “it depends.”

People have different capabilities of dealing with “it depends” situations. Logicians and mathematicians regularly deal with this: “If A is true then we should . . .” Calling this mental flexibility is probably close to being correct. Intelligent people are generally able to deal with “it depends” situations better than not-so-intelligent folks (although there are some geniuses who are completely inflexible) and younger people tend to be more flexible in their thinking than senior citizens.

Perhaps my point today is obvious, but whenever I’ve seen a list of attributes of gambling winners, I’ve never seen anything like: “Deals well with “it depends” situations,” but I’m pretty sure that it should be high up on the list somewhere.