The two best video poker bankroll calculators I’m aware of are found in Video Poker for Winners and Dunbar’s Risk Analyzer for Video Poker. They use different techniques and each has some features the other does not. When analyzing the same problems, the bankroll numbers they come up with are extremely close to each other.
I conclude that both products give us excellent mathematical calculations — assuming the players play accurately and consistently. I’ve used both of them to estimate “Can I afford this?” before embarking on a play. I feel fortunate to be associated with the VPW version.
I’m very glad I have access to these tools, but I also have significant reservations about them. The math behind both programs is solid, but there are some underlying assumptions that need to be discussed.
For example, do you know anyone who can correctly state something like: My bankroll is $14,772 and not one penny more? If someone somehow had an accurate number as of last night, how often is it recalculated? How does he account for free play that he knows is coming? What if he knows he’s going to get a good mailer, but he doesn’t know how big it will be? How does he monetize comps? What if he receives Chevron gas cards in a promotion but would only pay Arco prices if he didn’t have the gas cards?
A bankroll that is easy to replenish (perhaps by moving money from other accounts or maybe because of additional income independent of gambling) is a lot different from a bankroll that can’t be replenished (perhaps inherited money–when it’s gone it’s gone). If you have salable skills or assets, then running out of gambling bankroll is not as bad as if you don’t have such skills or assets.
If you own a house and are willing to put a $200,000 mortgage on it if your gambling bankroll goes down to zero, should you consider that $200,000 as part of your bankroll? What if your spouse thinks that would be a terrible idea? There are no exact guidelines defining what is bankroll and what isn’t. Somehow we’re all supposed to know.
While we’re talking about spouses, it’s not uncommon for married couples to disagree on how much is a “reasonable” amount to go into the gambling bankroll. Or sometimes there’s an agreement in February and someone changes his or her mind in April. Is that so unusual?
In one of Stanford Wong’s books, he defined bankroll as the amount of money you’re willing to lose before you give up gambling. I like that definition, but when push comes to shove, I don’t know how to calculate it. If you have a current bankroll of $20,000, it’s one thing to SAY that if your gambling bankroll decreases to $2,000, you’re going to stop gambling “forever and ever amen.” It’s another thing entirely to ACTUALLY QUIT at that time.
Think of how many times you’ve heard people say that they are going to start a diet tomorrow, or quit some vice, or start going to the gym regularly, but somehow tomorrow never comes? Do you think quitting gambling is any easier than this?
The VPW version doesn’t account for player errors. If you want to know the bankroll requirements for 9/6 Jacks or Better and you make errors of, say, 1.1%, it is probably best to make the calculation using 9/5 Jacks rather than 9/6. (In the Risk of Ruin section where you can enter a slot club rate, if you believe you make 0.2% in errors and the slot club pays 0.3%, then a fair estimate can be made using a slot club rate of 0.1%. But negative slot club numbers are not allowed in this calculation.) The Dunbar version allows you to enter an estimate for player error, but precisely calculating such an error rate can be very difficult.
If you played 10,000 hands on the computer and recorded your exact error rate for those hands, that would be a pretty good estimate and better than most people have. Still, it isn’t the same as in the casino. There are distractions in a casino that you won’t find at home (and vice-versa.) All of us have good days and bad days and our error rate differs depending on what kind of day we’re having. Or how tired, angry, inebriated, or otherwise distracted we are.
The bankroll calculations don’t take our personalities into consideration. For any size bankroll, some players are philosophical when they lose while others players become very upset. Calculating the same bankroll requirements for both of these personality types won’t be correct. For years I’ve been using the term “psychological bankroll” to talk about this phenomenon.
And then there’s the matter of scale. The bankroll calculators assume it’s just as easy to double your money from $500,000 to $1,000,000 as it is to go from $5,000 to $10,000. In the world I live in, this just isn’t true.
The bankroll calculators also do not take your age into consideration. If a 25-year-old man goes broke, he has many more options available to him than his 75-year-old grandfather does. The young man can go back to school, get a job (or a second job), possibly move in with Mom and Dad, etc. For gramps, his best earning years are behind him. Those extra options mentioned earlier in this paragraph often aren’t available when you’re past your prime earning years.
Does all this mean bankroll considerations are worthless? No, not at all. I’m glad to get guidance as to how risky certain games are. But I don’t believe the computer programs tell you everything you need to know regarding the subject.
Finally, whatever your political leanings are, it’s better to be conservative in calculating your bankroll. Pushing the bankroll envelope can be very risky. Going broke is definitely a learning experience I do not recommend for anyone.
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