Fifteen years ago, when most of the AP discussion was consolidated on Stanford Wong’s Green Chip page, there was a recurring conjecture, posed by naïvely optimistic card counters: When a butterfly flaps its wings in China, penetration increases in Vegas. For example, one person would make a post saying that the US had just signed a treaty banning military research on biological weapons, and the next poster would say, “So penetration is going to increase!” The Rube Goldbergian logic would go something like this: If we ban bio research in the US, the virus labs will move to foreign countries, especially China; without proper ethical and safety regulations, a virus will escape a Chinese lab; the ensuing worldwide pandemic will shut down casinos throughout the US; after two months without revenue, the US casinos will be desperate for cash when they re-open; to entice Americans to travel to the petri dish that is the Strip, Vegas will have to offer something that locals casinos throughout the US cannot; previously, Vegas casinos would offer fabulous shows, nightclubs, restaurants, roller coasters, strippers, and delirious nights spent shoulder-to-shoulder at the crap table with other like-minded tourists; with social-distancing guidelines shutting down nightclubs, spas, restaurants, and debauchery, Vegas will have to find some other way to make the game attractive; ergo, they’ll increase the penetration!
You had me till “ergo”! The conjecture requires three assumptions: that casino executives know what penetration is, that gamblers care what penetration is, and that casinos will compete with each other using penetration. In my decades as a pro, I still haven’t figured out which of those three assumptions is the most ridiculous. For a few inexperienced players to share their daydreams online was less annoying than the silence of the experienced majority. By failing to call out misinformation online, knowledgeable players allow idiocy to fester online. Of course, sometimes that is our goal.
Today is not the day to bash card counters; I just wanted to establish some balance before I bash surveillance personnel. You see, as much as card counters think that every event in the industry is either because of them or will directly affect them, some paranoid surveillance personnel (PSP) have the same mentality towards APs.
Like the penetration dreamers, PSP also base their worldview on three flawed assumptions. PSP massively overestimate how many APs are out there. PSP massively overestimate how much money APs typically extract from casinos. PSP think they understand what conditions APs look for, and how casino procedures affect APs. Again, I am unable to determine which of these premises is the most flawed.
In a guest blog post by “The Rat” here at LVA on June 3, the claim was made that “The capabilities of [surveillance] have been compromised [by increased duties related to coronavirus guidelines], leading to a profitable time for APs.” According to the blog post: “One AP said, ‘It will be a fabulous time to play blackjack on the Strip without being sweated …’” Really??? The blog post itself is PURE SWEAT. (I had to go with all caps, bold, and italic there. If only I knew how to insert emojis. Before I go on, I do want to thank the surveillance blogger for joining our discussion. We appreciate that you took the time to open yourself up to online attacks! I think I speak for all APs when I say that hearing from actual surveillance personnel is always fascinating, and generally humanizing. We thank you. Now do I get to flog you?)
I’m not convinced that an AP said that blackjack will be fabulous. I think the blogger made up that statement to support his position. (Indiana Jones asks, “Who?” Bureaucrat answers “Top … men.”) Or maybe the “AP” who made the statement is some fake AP, likely a casino employee who is an “AP on the side.” Please. I don’t have time to debunk the urban myth of the casino employee who is a successful AP “on the side.” (You know, the ones who say, “If I just had a bankroll, …”!)
Nevertheless, let’s accept that a real AP claimed that this is a great time to play blackjack on the Strip without being sweated. Maybe it is—for that AP. And maybe wearing a mask will help that AP hide his face. I’m also an AP, and my viewpoint is quite different. The AP spectrum is wide, so I’m just a data point.
The first major omission in the PSP blog: Many of us APs are worried that our target game will no longer exist! Will our target table be open? Will a machine player discover that his machine is one of those that is turned off? Will he be able to request that that machine get turned on? Has a favorite dealer been furloughed? I’m not merely speculating—long-range scans indicate that several of our targets ARE missing. The search continues, but I’m not happy.
PSP think that AP gangs are going to run around wearing Nixon masks grabbing all the loot. Masks are not nearly the benefit that PSP think. My crew has clean, disposable BPs betting the money. We WANT the casino to look at their faces, check the database, and give them a clean bill of health. In a recent GWAE podcast, a different surveillance employee basically admits that their game protection is simply checking for the faces of known, recently active APs in their region. So they hate the playa, not the play. We have faced the facebook problem for years, and developed workarounds. And in a casino where the personnel know me on sight, a mask won’t be much protection. So coronavirus masks are a nothing-burger. (And we prefer V for Vendetta masks, by the way.)
PSP say that surveillance has one eye closed. I also have a pessimistic viewpoint—I see one eye open. I prefer to play at zombie casinos that have eyes wide shut. We scout for casinos, shifts, and dealers that do not understand or suspect what we’re doing. Our normal playing conditions are great, as they have been for years, so any massive overhaul of procedures is probably not good for us. If that overhaul creates additional paranoia in the surveillance room, that’s definitely bad.
From a macro view, APs prosper when casinos prosper. APs are like seagulls in Atlantic City. When there are massive crowds dropping French fries and hot dog buns on the boardwalk, we seagulls get to eat like pigs. The pandemic has brought tough times to Vegas. That generally means that APs will have a tough time. Winning casinos sweat less. Winning, crowded casinos don’t notice us as much. You know how many struggling casinos resort to lowering limits, reducing comps and matchplay coupons, nitpicking payoff errors, getting rid of double-deck BJ, getting rid of free hands on baccarat, and all sorts of other nittish nonsense? The AP is always the scapegoat, even for a mass shooting!
“The Rat” says he works on the Strip, which is mostly controlled by MGM and Harrah’s. Do I need to list sweaty MGM/Harrah’s policies? MGM requires a players card on DD, right? (I could be wrong; I don’t have first-hand knowledge on that.) Harrah’s St. Louis had a $5 max on Mississippi Stud for years. Harrah’s AC requires a players card to play two spots. The Playboy Club in London stiffs card counters. And the Wynn is probably even sweatier! Didn’t Steve Wynn have dogs sniffing down employees (or was that just Internet rumor)? Those policies were in happier, more profitable times. So you think they’re not going to sweat it now, when the whole country is on a short fuse economically and emotionally?
For now, we’re all forced to speculate. Will the summer bring large crowds? How long will current policies be enforced? Will Vegas have an outbreak? There probably will be some good mail offers, cheap rooms, and reduced fees (some complimentary parking on the Strip—yippee!). But any AP who predicts a candy store is naïve, and any surveillance guy who listens to that AP is paranoid.
One last thing that just might enter into an AP’s calculus: It’s a pandemic! APs tend to be over 21 years old, cautious, and probably left-leaning politically. Put another way, APs probably are taking the coronavirus seriously. Casinos have to be the riskiest places on earth right now. Do I want to put myself in the middle of a crowd? And not just any crowd—we’re talking about a crowd of the most reckless, undisciplined people in the country (Bob Dancer made the same point on the air). We’re talking about the people who never cared about the pandemic, who say “you’re gonna die of somethin’!”, who elected a mayor who says, “Ebola schmabola,” and who make smoking bans in casinos a non-starter (according to the South Point GM in a GWAE podcast).
Don’t mistake me for an alarmist. I’m not personally worried about death from coronavirus. However, I think that if I were to put in the same casino hours that I did pre-pandemic, my chance of getting infected this year could be 50% or higher, with a subsequent 1% death risk (who knows?), and inability to visit my elderly relatives. To lower this risk, I have spent the lockdown improving my cardiovascular health, boosting my running to about 30 miles per week (from 0), and losing 12 pounds. (Who knows whether that regimen helps at all, but it’s gotta be healthier than drinking bleach.)
The overall health risk for me is pretty low, but hardly zero, and some of my teammates are at higher risk. So why go into a casino at all? Because there’s some short-lived candy store? I doubt there is, but even if so, normal conditions offer plenty of opportunities. We never had enough hours in the day to play all the great games out there. If I had my choice, I’d want the conditions to be exactly as they were pre-pandemic.
I hope that the pandemic leads to expansion of online poker and sports betting, but in brick-and-mortar casinos, I expect overall AP activity to be lower than usual. The “One Eye Closed” blog strikes me as yet another fear-mongering post villainizing APs (like looters during Hurricane Katrina). Yamamoto never said there is a rifle behind every blade of grass, and I’m telling the PSP right here: There isn’t an AP behind every mask.
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The original post was at https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/casino-surveillance-compromised-one-eye-closed/ and the podcast with a different surveillance agent was at https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/podcast-guest-surveillance-operator-jackson/
Maybe .1% tops. Definitely a lefty if you think 1%
I don’t “think 1%”–I’m just blogging numbers that I think are in the ballpark for my own medical history. The real number could be 0.1%, or 4%. And the chance I get infected if I put in pre-pandemic hours could be 5%, or closer to 100%. I’ll adjust as additional data is analyzed, which probably won’t be for a year. I am quite confident that one of my BPs would die if he got infected.
James: You are spot on and your blog was very good btw! I didn’t put enough weight in your “who knows?” and focused on the “1%” too heavily.
Sadly, I think both of us may never get that “data” we want to see (even in a year) as the both the left and right are too busy spinning every article and study out there to support their stance. It really is a sad state of affairs.
As with most things, time will tell. Just be careful out there.
Alexander the Great said: “Remember upon the conduct of each depends the fate of all.” It only takes one infected ass with no mask to infect dozens. I tempted fate all too many times when I was young and thought myself invincible. No more. The world and its casinos will exist when this is over. My one fear is that casinos will use this as an excuse to fulfill their long held dream and eradicate human dealers. Thus far, even they haven’t been that stupid.
I likely had Covid in early February. Haven’t bothered to take the antigen test as it wouldn’t affect my behavior. I’d take the same precautions. Patience will out. One thing. I did lose 11 pounds. I don’t advise this as a weight-loss regimen. But, it was easier than running 30 miles.
Nice post, and the real death number will always be skewed by several factors that are based on testing. Only confirmed by testing death counts are listed, many obviously died without ever getting tested, and also many had the virus, completely recovered, and were never tested. Plus some states like Florida and Georgia are being dishonest about public health numbers, which is just crazy… The rest of your post is succinct, real AP’s got where they are by patience, are in no rush, and are by nature cautious and picky. I am retired, I play live poker, I am never in a rush to play unless I observe a great table. I go to my local casino and scan the action before I even put my initials on the waiting board, I go sometimes and never even buy in to a game. The pandemic will keep me away until it shakes out, short games are a non-starter for the better player, my bankroll is safe in my closet for the time being. And that “rat” post was nonsense from the get go, it said eye in the sky employee’s were disgruntled and lazy, which zero AP’s would ever dare consider or trust…
I agree, the better APs understand tail risk and the negative externalities associated with playing in this environment. Successful APs also tend to be financially secure and understand the decreasing marginal utility of money. At the low end, I think that competition might increase as the unskilled labor that is checking Scarabs realizes that they have no other means to earn above market wages.
Another great article, James! But this one and the previous one has shattered my image of the typical AP rising early in the AM after an 8 hour sleep to do yoga, having some herbal (caffeine free) tea, and then heading to the local farmers market to get the freshest fruits and vegetables to prepare for his or her meal.
ha…ha…ha…
I’m eating organic strawberries that I just got at the supermarket, and I’m about to go for a run while I’m stuck on some code. That oughta count for something!
The one positive of this pandemic is it brought you back to the blogosphere.
oh James. i would kill to have a cup of coffee with you some day.
glad you returned! i have dealt with many PSP in my career. They would spot someone moving a bet a few units and tell me it must be a card counter, how else could they be winning?. i recognized that they would never become a good agent, simply blind to their own shortfalls, and wonder how they got the job… i would remind myself that i was working fast food three days before my first day… guess the hiring pool was not saturated at the time.
i have a personal and professional problem with asking customers to remove their mask when entering, and while my casino is not capturing this facial data, i know that some of our competitors are. it saddens me to see a casino using the pandemic as an excuse to make changes like the blanket facial capture of all guests entering. I know they could capture this data during usual times without masks, but it cheapens it to get that data from two feet away using the excuse of “we’re checking your temperature”. I don’t doubt that in the near future, an ID will be required to be scanned, proven valid, and matched to your face, to enter any casino (or any large event/area)…
I am not sure how long this will all last, but hopefully someday i will see you at my casino, coffee is on me.
How do you come up with a number like .1% and say it is any more valid than 1% or 4% or any other number? What do you base your number on?
To me, a card counter is an AP (because they can make money from a game that is -EV off the top).
However, if you read tweets by slot hustlers, they are calling themselves AP’s because they scavenge bonus slots and play with an “advantage” (e.g. equity abandoned by the prior player).
So be careful with the definition of an “AP”. Practically everyone is an AP if they make money from hustling bonus slots. Or they are credit (abandoned TITO) vultures.
See this article where a “Voucher Vulture” makes as much as $1,200 a week: https://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/12/nyregion/not-betting-a-dime-a-voucher-vulture-cleans-up-at-the-slots.html
That is $600 to $1,200 a week as an “AP”.
Everybody’s got my phone bugged–I was discussing this as a blog topic for the near future. Save your thoughts for another month or two. Thank you!
EV Bandit, do you also lump chasers of video poker progressives in with slot hustlers?
A scavenger is a scavenger, e.g. they look for abandoned equity. The equity is generally either awarded via achieving the last milestone or hitting a specific outcome like a royal flush in the case of a progressive RF jackpot. These equities are progressive prizes (slot, video poker, Keno, etc), the leftover X’s in UX, free spins, free wild symbols, etc.
I know people who scavenge $100K MH’s and I call them scavengers and they agree with my assessment. I know professional VP players who chase $1 8/5 JoB when the RF is at least $10K and I also call them scavengers.
So going back to the blackjack analogy, a VP player is an AP when he plays a game whose EV is negative off the top but makes up the difference with promo’s or other benefits. Therefore, if the only benefit a VP derives is hitting the progressive RF to make the play +EV, then he is a scavenger.
So yes, I was in bj21.com in halcyon period of 2005 and yes, I won a Post of the Month award on green chip.
So a homeless guy going through the trash cans looking for despots is also a scavenger. And I see plenty of homeless scavengers checking out bonus slots for plays to get extra pocket change.
Was told specifically by Harrah’s property that the face scan at the temperature check is only in case you have a high temp. If you’re good to go they discard the photo.
Do you mean they were lying ?!?
Bastards!
James you say that, “One last thing that just might enter into an AP’s calculus: It’s a pandemic! APs tend to be over 21 years old, cautious, and probably left-leaning politically. Put another way, APs probably are taking the coronavirus seriously.”
How would you know that AP’s tend to be left-leaning politically speaking? Are you making a generalization of AP’s in America, the people you hang around with, or AP’s around the world?
Here you say, “Don’t mistake me for an alarmist. I’m not personally worried about death from coronavirus. However, I think that if I were to put in the same casino hours that I did pre-pandemic, my chance of getting infected this year could be 50% or higher, with a subsequent 1% death risk (who knows?), and inability to visit my elderly relatives.”
If your’re washing your hands like crazy and you’re not in the casinos then I would have to presume that you are worried about the coronavirus. In your first coronavirus thread you seemed as if you were really worried James. What else would prompt you to make a return to this platform after a few years of absence? Personally I don’t think you have anything to worry about other than catching the common cold if you did put in the same hours you did in the casino pre-pandemic. Now I’m sure if you visited a classroom full of 1st graders and had them around you, you would more than likely come down with a fever or the flu and you’ll think that you’ve been infected with covid.
If AP’s in America are mostly comprimised of Democratic voters then they should like Biden’s plan for a national mask mandate “if” he wins the election. An America under Biden will see mask wearing as a staple which could last for YEARS. This is being done to purposely to demoralize and condition the population for a much more sinister social plan down the road. Either way, no matter who wins this contested election in November you can be guaranteed that the Republicans & Democrats will play this pandemic out to know end. I am predicting a Trump victory in 2020 just like I did in 2016. Biden couldn’t even beat Hillary for the nomination in 2016 and they are running a less popular candidate than they did in 2016, huge mistake for the Democrats and keeping Biden in hiding will not help out his cause. The Democrats will continue to keep their cities and states locked down harder when Trump wins in 2020 to further weaken and already weak economy. Nevermind the disconnect between Wall Streets highs and Main St. America’s lows. The Democratic governors of these Democratic states are ruining the lives of the people who live in their respective states. We all know that Democratic cities are stricken with the most violence & strife in the pandemic era and that’s what people get when they are constantly being lied to and manipulated via the mainstream media.
it’s quite apparent that all you want to do is start trouble…. STOP …thanks
@Norm. You mentioned above, “The world and its casinos will exist when this is over. My one fear is that casinos will use this as an excuse to fulfill their long held dream and eradicate human dealers.” The Tesla bot nor stadium BJ is ready to take over yet. When this is over? It hasn’t even begun, we are in the most interesting times of our lives right now. We’re not beyond Thunderdome but you can rest assured that Bartertown is coming once when everything goes digital and the people will not like it. More time is needed.