Last week a story broke detailing a botched start time for a group of South Korean baseball games that were scheduled to begin after midnite. The main line services had the time right but one group of books got it wrong. It had the games starting much later, and as a result bettors, still up at that hour began punching in bets on the teams off to a good start. The full background story can be found here:
Once the story got around, the debates began on whether or not the players should get paid. If they did, what should happen to them going forward? And generally, if going to town on an obvious unintentionally available group of wagers was crossing the line.
I’ll state right away that it’s clearly taking a shot at the book and that once you get into an area like past-posting, the gloves are off on both sides. Getting paid will be up to Gaming and in my estimation, they’ll get paid, due primarily to some factors that can’t be reconciled fairly otherwise –specifically, the other tickets out there that were bet, both winners and losers. Some have been cashed while the uncashed tickets are locked out and that’s going to be a problem. As for the losing tickets, how do you resolve that if Gaming rules that the games in question are somehow no action? It will be amusing to see how they justify whatever decision is made.
What was really interesting was the variation in stances being taken by the betting public. Many have wagered primarily online and may not be familiar with exactly what the books can do to a bettor that exploits such a mistake. A percentage of folks were adamant that BetMGM deserves what it gets and should have to pay for its mistake. That’s all well and good, and I have no real pity for any arm of a casino, but is it really the smart move to sock it to a book that throws up a typo line or an incorrect start time?
As an advantage bettor, you spend a lot of time looking for inefficiencies and opportunities where the books are asleep at the wheel. This goes beyond that. In this case, the book had a manual malfunction. They just plain screwed up. The question is whether the potential gain is worth the potential consequences. It appears some bettors didn’t work that into the equation, and maybe they should have.
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The Problem With Betting Sports Book Errors
Once you begin to get comfortable monitoring the market and keeping tabs on what your books have on the board, you’ll inevitably see mistakes being made on occasion. Under normal circumstances. a difference in lines between books is what you’re looking for as you try to find a bet-worthy outlier. That’s not what a mistake or error line is. An error line is something unintentionally available due to some mistake on the book’s part when posting the game lines.
The two most common mistakes you’ll find are an upside-down number and an alignment error.
An upside-down number is a game where the favorite is listed with the line for the dog and vice versa. In this instance, you’ll be getting the favorite at plus money or plus points if you try to bet it. This happens most often when the favorite is the road team. Due to home teams being the favorites the majority of the time, this is a fairly common mistake: A book has a line of -10 points that must be input and it mistakenly puts that number on the bottom team just as it probably had for a long string of games that came before it on the schedule.
An alignment error occurs when the book is inputting the lines for a slate of games and inadvertently skips over either the listed teams or the line for a game. What results is two teams displaying the line that goes with the game either above or below it on the schedule. This happens when the game lines first go up and can go unnoticed for a while when the teams involved are a bit under the radar. An alignment error that stays on the board for any stretch of time is more likely to involve teams like Kent St/Ohio U than it would for Falcons/Saints. A line of +13 just wouldn’t jump off the page the same way in the college MAC game as it would for one in the NFC South.
A third type of error doesn’t involve the line. Instead it’s what we’re talking about this week. A goof on the start time of the game. This can happen due to simple human error or because of a time change that went unnoticed. Wrong start times go both ways. A game may go off the board hours before it starts or it can remain open for betting well after it’s begun. Obviously, the latter is where the big problems lie for the sports book. A game left up after it’s begun might get bet by mistake or intentionally by a bettor. If the past-post bets are intentional, they’ll often be made in a manner that’s unlike the normal action the player usually gives. Bets will often be bigger or spread out among parlays. It’s pretty obvious that the player knows the game started when the manner in which the game was bet is examined and compared vs. his past account activity. With live bets, there may be no account to refer to. but the player still has to deal with the uncomfortable task of trying to cash the ticket. How you go about that could be a whole separate discussion.
That’s pretty much where the positive news for the bettor ends. Even if a book is obligated to pay on one of these tickets, the end result can still be overwhelmingly negative. You’ll almost certainly be unable to bet with that book going forward. What’s worse is other books may catch wind of your willingness to exploit an error and decide they don’t want you betting with them as well. You might get paid but you’re losing valuable resources in the process and that’s not good.
That’s not the end of the bad news regarding error-line bets. If a book notices the bets are fishy, it can turn the tables and freeroll the bettor, especially in less regulated venues and certainly offshore. The book may wait until the game has concluded or has a decisive decision in progress before it cancels the bets or lets them stand depending on which decision suits them best. It’s tough to complain if a bet gets canceled due to an error line and even tougher to object if the bet is allowed to stand. You can easily find yourself in a can’t win situation.
Whether you have an ethical problem or not with making these types of bets is almost irrelevant. The negatives outweigh the positives the majority of the time and you’re almost always better served by ignoring error lines or notifying the book of the screw-up. They may say thanks for the heads up and make a note that you informed them — or your gesture may go without much, if any, recognition. Either way, you’re going to be better off in the long run by taking a pass on betting egregious line errors. The majority of the time, the party that ends up getting the short end of the deal is the bettor.
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I would never place a bet on a game that has already started, everyone knows that is a mistake, and someone might lose their job… Nevada sports betting is regulated, if you want to beat the sportsbook, pick winners. Recently I was invited to play golf by one of my sons friends father on a nice course, it was a foursome, they said they played one dollar skins, a dollar a hole. I told them I was an eight handicap, they were all around the twenty handicap range, I told them I was not comfortable doing that, but they insisted. I won all the holes, but I would not take their money, its not a fair game, I am worlds more consistent than they are. Kinda the same thing, fair play works both ways, golf is a gentlemans game, if you are a gentleman you dont take advantage of others…
It is called cheating – this is a classic example.
Hole carding isn’t cheating. I play carny games and I shop for sloppy dealers. I am not responsible if the dealer is not protecting the game, if the pit critters are not protecting the game AND the eye in the sky is not protecting the game. There is no collusion when I shop for dealers.
The the gambler is not responsible for the house to protect its game; it’s called game protection and the onus is on the house to protect itself when it offers wagers to the public. You reap what you sow. The Regulator’s job is not to be a back-up for human error; the house had enough profits to put in place FAIL-SAFES with triple back-ups AHD MARGIN OF SAFETY.
I don’t believe that this article said anything about hole carding.
Why not just keep that to yourself?
There are bottom feeders all around in the gambling world, and I’m sure that there are some folks who eke out a living by looking for and exploiting sports book errors. It probably pays about $2 an hour in the long run but hey, it beats working. It’s like the folks who used to prowl casinos looking for coins left in slot trays or chips dropped on the floor.
Hole carding IS cheating, pure and simple, but anyone can assuage their conscience by telling themselves that they are “legitimately exploiting a weakness,” which sounds much better. Likewise, placing a bet on a game that you KNOW is in progress is cheating but can also be called taking advantage of a mistake. It comes down to what rationalizations you are willing to cook up.
Hole carding is Not against the law therefore it stands to reason it’s not cheating.
Kevin, look at einbinder vs state of Nevada. 12/18/84. If you still think holecarding is illegal then good for you.
I didn’t say it is illegal. Work on your reading skills. I said it is CHEATING. Many forms of cheating, such as stealing signs in baseball, peeking into another player’s hand at poker, or copying from a classmate’s homework, are not against the law, i.e., illegal, but they are definitely cheating.
Similarly, much unethical behavior is not against the law. Certainly, hole carding is unethical, whether or not you consider it cheating. I do realize that many APs streeeeeetch the boundaries of ethics to pursue profits.
If edge sorting like in the Phil Ivey case was considered cheating in court (which it was), then knowing hole cards might be considered the same.
The word “cheat” has a legal definition. The Supreme court has ruled that hole carding is NOT “cheating.”
Ivey concocted a ruse to manipulate and create an illegal game, therefore he cheated. Hole-carders don’t manipulate the dealers or casinos, therefore they aren’t cheaters.
Sure….I mean, hole carders have to use that defense, otherwise, what they’re doing is pretty reprehensible, isn’t it?
The word “cheat” also has a personal definition for everyone, as in, the line they will not cross. The concept of “ethics” is similar; it can’t be precisely defined or delineated.
The gray area has always existed in gambling. In poker, people in that gray area are called “angle shooters.” Some people loathe them; other admire them for their moxie and derring-do. We all react differently according to our own moral code. And yes, when money is involved….APs will move their moral goalposts in a flash.
Stealing signs (without electronic aid) is cheating?
Larry, the casino agreed to ivey’s proposals. They didn’t have to. Neither Ivey nor sun touched the cards. How did they manipulate anything?
Right, and after a review, they went after the cheater(s) and rightly won in court. There’s game should’ve never been allowed to begin with.
If as ask for the dealers to intentionally expose a portion of the dealers hole card in blackjack, even if they agree to it initially, it is still cheating. Now if it is UNINTENTIONALLY, then it isn’t. Ivey DID create a RIGGED game. He’s a cheater.
Sat next to a player this past weekend who said he had won $5K recently at a LV sports book on a Brazilian soccer game due to a misposted time. He said the sports book called him, told him they knew what he had done and said he could keep the money if he didn’t post the ticket or publicize what had happened. He thought the South Korean baseball gamblers had gotten greedy and stupid.
Ivey didn’t ask the dealer to do anything. The agreement was made with casino management. They were requests that capitalized on casino stupidity. Btw, although heavy favorites, they could’ve lost. The game wasn’t rigged.
I’m honestly surprised by the number of people that are defending the casino on this. It is their job to protect their offerings. Period. End of story.
If the casino wants to “throw out” the players that bet these games, alright fine I suppose; but don’t tell me that it’s somehow immoral or unethical to take advantage of a play like this.
“ I don’t believe that this article said anything about hole carding.”
I used hole carding as a corollary regarding using more information to make wagers in regulated gaming establishments.
My main point of my argument was the (regulated) casinos, sport books, etc need to wear their BIG BOY pants. The regulators should not “socialize” the costs.
The argument is why bet with a Sport Book that doesn’t honor bets made in good faith vs Sport Books not honoring bets with bettors who took advantage of an honest mistake.
I simply expression my views and you need to keep an open mind about people’s views. I am not asking to agree with my views but instead asking if you understand them. Again, the main theme of this article was using more information when making wagers. If you understand this, then this outcome affects similar situations, e.g hole carding.
“ Why not just keep that to yourself?”
Did you not buy Grosjean’s “Beyond Counting” when it came out? It was about the same time as the halcyon days of APs on bj21.com
Grosjean via his book opened the floodgates of using more information when making certain wagers. He elevated hole carding for APs.
It’s immoral and unethical to take advantage of a play like this.
Beautifully stated. ETHICS is under-studied.
It may be what you’d consider immoral and unethical. Similarly, many people believe card counting via team play is immoral and unethical. Would you like to entertain us with a treatise comparing and contrasting BJ team play with a bookmaker that’s too stupid to realize they’re getting past posted?
“ It’s immoral and unethical to take advantage of a play like this.”
How about this situation where someone found a way to exploit Aruze Shoot To Win Craps; the player cannot touch the dice, only push the button to launch the dice into the air.
Assuming fair dice, the probability of getting a 6 or 7 or 8 is 16/36 per roll (on average); 5 ways to make a 6 or 8 and 6 ways to make a 7. Guy made 20 x 6 or 7 or 8 in 23 consecutive rolls. The analogy would be getting tails 20 out of 23 consecutive tosses (not a perfect analogy since 16/36 < 1/2 per trial, respectively).
Kevin Lewis would probably argue that this person’s “skill” (knowing when to push the button) is “cheating”. In this game, the player cannot touch the dice as the dice is tumbling quickly inside the “bubble”.
http://www.crapsforum.com/threads/duh-mango-its-raining-6-7-8.38033/