Listeners to our podcast know I typically end with the line, “Go out and hit a royal flush!” Colin Jones, the owner of blackjackapprenticeship.com, one of the sponsors of our podcast, has numerous podcasts of his own in which he typically ends with, “Keep generating EV!”
Not that I’m planning on changing, but I like Colin’s ending better than mine! It’s far closer to what I believe intelligent gamblers should do.
My phrase is the video poker equivalent of wishing you, “Good luck today.” If you’re playing a single-line game, hitting a royal flush pretty much ensures you’re going home a winner.
While wishing somebody good luck is a pleasant, sociable thing to do, it doesn’t suggest that you have any input as to how or when this good luck comes about. Just sit back and maybe a royal flush will come knocking on your door!
Colin’s phrase is the equivalent of, “Keep doing the right things, and over time good things will happen.”
Generating EV in blackjack consists of game selection, knowing how to count cards accurately, and proper bet sizing. Other things are also important, but this is not an article attempting to teach you how to play blackjack well.
Generating EV in video poker consists of knowing the game, the slot club, and the various promotions, while only playing when you have the advantage.
There will always be “results-oriented” people who are overly concerned with whether you win or lose in the short run. They will argue that you can’t spend EV. And they’re right, sort of, at least from their perspective. Not from mine.
I’d much rather be “EV-oriented.” I know hundreds of gamblers of every kind who have had profitable careers for years simply by grinding things out.
Using the title of Josh Axelrod’s book, “Repeat Until Rich,” is another way to phrase it. Figure out where your edge is and keep doing it.
It works!
What brought this to my mind was when I returned from a session at the South Point during early September. The promotion this month consists of two casino-wide jackpots. I’ve never hit one of these at the South Point (although I have received numerous $25 consolidation prizes because I was playing when somebody else hit the jackpot). I have hit such a progressive elsewhere. And I have collected on other South Point “fairly rare” promotions.
So, I played my usual amount, hoping to continue receiving mailers. I didn’t collect on one of the jackpots this trip. But I believe it was still a better game to play this month than it would be if there was not a promotion going on.
I was “generating EV,” so to speak. This time I didn’t cash. No big deal. I usually don’t on this promotion, but I will occasionally. While the rare time that I collect on this jackpot will be unpredictable and out of the blue, I think I will because I have time after time put myself in position to win.
Often you can accurately predict your EV. This time I can’t. I don’t know enough about how frequently the jackpot hits and whether it matters, for example, if you’re playing a nickel or a $5 machine. But the game I was playing was already a bit positive off the top. Add in the mailers and the casino-wide jackpots and I know I have an edge. I just don’t know how big of an edge.
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Poker players often refer to winning Sklansky Bucks, a reference to David Sklansky’s focus on EV, where you don’t evaluate results on actual wins or losses, but what you statistically should have won or lost. In other words if you (or your opponents) hit draws in a session more or less often than the odds, you calculate your session on what the results would have been had the cards broken even.
My question to you Bob is what about the clock, time? My local card club on Friday nights has double bad beat jackpots from 10pm to 11pm, Friday nights are a great time to play, there is way more action, I get there around 8 or 8:30 and do my best to stick around for the double jackpot promotion. What I will never do is go over my daily limit, no matter what the size of my bankroll, if I lose my daily amount I go home, its etched in stone, decades of experience has told me that even though the action and promotion are good, the key to long run success is managing your bankroll. Same thing if I get to my win number, if at 9:30 I am ahead to the point of my go home number, I go home, I feel it is super important for a players morale and health to accept your winnings, set a number and stick to it… I play video poker only when in Las Vegas on vacation, and my strategy is similar, I hit and run. What do you advantage video poker players do in terms of time and bankroll management, if you are having a bad day during a ten hour promotion window do you keep throwing money in for the time period, or do you set a limit and go home?
I’ve written about this a lot. Your note indicates it’s time to write another blog post. Look for it in two weeks
Since I do not have unlimited energy for VP play, I always set a high-low mark when I get tired. I then stop whenever I hit the high or the low.
Colin may be a bit different, but I go out and generate “+EV”
Just got back from my latest monthly Vegas VP trip and did lousy. I sought out the best game I could find for a low roller, Loose Deuces, knew the strategy cold, and still lost. I was dealt 3 Deuces about 5 or so times, no luck. Certainly no royal, although I believe I was dealt 4 once. I’m having mixed feelings right now.
With the availability of good games so limited, I’m doubtful my trips are worth it anymore as an out-of-towner. Traveling across the country is fairly rigorous and this trip, I threw my back out the final morning of the trip because of a mattress that was far too soft and a shower far too small. I could barely walk in the airport I was in so much pain. I am very competitive and don’t like losing. Perhaps my one royal flush will be my only. I’m not even getting resort fees covered. I guess I’m about 20 or 30 years late to the party.
Marky Mark, Bob Dancer would be among the first to admit that opportunities in VP are not what they once were. He can still find the EV, but he is among the best—if not the best—in the field. Personally, I would not travel by plane for mediocre video poker. I’d look for it at a local casino or pursue another gambling-related activity such as live poker or sports betting.
Agree with you. Thanks Caesar. My post was mostly just venting out of frustration that I played really well and still lost, something I DEFINITELY know you have to accept playing VP, and gambling in general. I may be done entirely, not sure yet. I do much better in the stock market than I could ever do playing VP. Should probably stick to my strengths. There are a few 99.5%+ games in Atlantic City, very few, so if I get the urge, I may go back in the new year since I live in the East. I’ve done pretty well with online poker and placed/cashed in a few tourneys. I just don’t follow sports enough to place a bet with any chance of winning, other than luck. Thanks and good luck to you.
Thanks for the kind reply, Marky Mark. My personal favorite and most profitable gambling is Holdem poker, and I prefer to play it online. (Online poker is—not surprisingly—popular during the pandemic.) But even that is not as lucrative as it used to be. I am interested in politics and I just deposited on predictit.org; you can get a free $20 if you use the link here. I guess the stock market is a kind of gambling, too. But it is volatile! Stay safe.