There are some excellent video poker opportunities to be found from time to time in Las Vegas. When these are found, good players rush in to take advantage of them. After a few days or weeks of getting pounded, casino slot directors decide that they are tired of this, so they remove the promotions, the machines, or sometimes, the offending players.
For a promotion to work, good and bad players need to play. If the casinos do not make money, the promotion will not last. When good players hog all of the machines, the casino cannot make money, and so the casino makes adjustments.
When this happens, “recreational players” are heard to complain, “Damn pros! Don’t they know they are killing the goose that laid the golden eggs? Any idiot could see that they should not have played such long hours.” These recreational players may not phrase it this way, but what they really mean is, “It’s only fair that it should have lasted long enough so I could play as much as I wanted. Once I make some decent money on it, then it’s okay if it ends.”
The truth of the matter is that the pros know that the games will not last long. That’s why they are there! If they don’t take advantage of the situation now, it will go away.
While it might make sense if every single one of the pros would limit their play so that lesser players could have a shot, the fact of the matter is that pros, for the most part, act independently from each other. There are a few teams and partnerships, to be sure, but generally speaking, each pro can only act for himself or herself. If a particular pro backs off so that a lucrative situation survives, other pros will move in and the game will be killed anyway. So, every pro has the incentive to do what is against the interest of good players as a group.
There are people who bemoan this situation. Go ahead and bemoan! But it is not going to change. The real problem is competition. There are more players wanting good situations in a casino than there are good situations. This will always be true.
It is analogous in many ways to wanting to buy a BMW. Let us say a particular model retails for $60,000. People haggle over the price, but basically there are enough Beamers to go around. But now let us say that these same automobiles are offered for $5,000 apiece. Same car as before. But now many tens of thousands of additional people wish to buy them. (I’d take more than one if I could!) There can never be enough of these cars to go around as long as the price is $5,000.
The many people who are not among the lucky few who get the $60,000 car for $5,000 may well bemoan all the greedy people who got in the way of the “recreational buyer” from getting his car.
Because of situations described here, promotions are not as lucrative as they used to be, and they are ending more quickly. People bemoan this too. But this isn’t going to change.
There are a lot of people reading “how to beat the casinos” articles. (Which is a good thing as far as I am concerned. I get paid to produce such articles, although, if it makes me feel better, I can bemoan that I’m not being paid enough. Lot of good that will do!) As long as these articles get produced, the level of knowledge about playing the games will continue to increase. As this happens, the number of people who can take advantage of any given promotion increases as well. So, casinos find that the promotions that used to work well for them now do not work as well. So, in self-defense, they offer a little less.
Now, in addition to complaining about the good players, recreational players can complain about the authors as well.
What can you do about it? Well, you can spend your time bemoaning this bad turn of events if you like. Or you can recognize it for what it is and plan your strategy accordingly.
Never miss another post
I’ve personally debated whether it’s better to play an unusual opportunity with some discretion, with eye to extending its life, or if one should simply bash away until fully sated (and hopefully with pockets stuffed).
Over the years, I”ve encountered smart, aggressive players who’ve related (directly or indirectly) that they’ve been no-mailed by one property or another for aggressive promotion play, otherwise taking advantage of a play, or simply as a consequence of sustained notable wins. I reasoned to myself that I would rather restrain myself and secure a continued welcome than play “all out” and burn that welcome, with the logic that over the longer term I would hope to see a higher “EV” from continued play at the property.
The problem with that logic is that the casino sands are always shifting; what is an attractive play environment today frequently dries up over the ensuing year or two.
The one instance where I walked from a play, satisfied that I had pocketed some very handsome wins and decided I’d like a shot at returning to the play when I returned to the area a month later so walked much earlier than I had to, has left me with solid regret. The play, which I had stumbled across and for which I was solidly satisfied wasn’t on anyone’s radar because the game was a true “queer duck” and the game sat empty throughout the day when I wasn’t playing, had an ER of 102% (largely because the SF paid 1000 coins rather than a standard 250, but there were a couple of other boosted pays as well).
The game was removed from the machines within the week and is merely a fond memory now.
I am always amazed to walk into a casino and find the “100%” machines empty while dozens of players are on VP machines with poor pay tables. I always know some veteran VP players who have never joined the slot club.
I, for one, virtually never play 100% machines.
the games are always for low stakes, the slot club is always reduced, the mailers virtually non-existent, and if you don’t take the hint, you end up getting kicked out. There are usually much better deals playing games slightly tighter, while taking advantage of the full slot club and promotions. And if there aren’t better deals, the casino isn’t worth playing at.
I heard that Station Casinos has now eliminated the FPDW Games from their 100% machines. Although that game was only available on quarter denom, it was fun to play for a while when there was no other promotion available. It is recommended though, whenever I play these games, I don’t even insert my players card as the 12 dollar per point value is almost non existing, so why bother.
Merely playing the 100% machines at Stations Casinos did not prevent getting good offers from them. That would happen if you made a profit while playing those advantage machines, but not if you lost while playing them. I waited until 2019 to finally go and play at one of the Stations, the one that had the 2nd-best inventory of them all, Boulder Station. I only played for a couple hours; I took a bus there from my downtown hotel/casino and back, one afternoon. I lost $200, and stopped playing. That opened a floodgate of room offers, including free show tickets. Then I finally made a trip and stayed there and played there. On that trip, I finished ahead, and made a profit. The offers stopped.
On the issue of just a few pro players “hogging the machines” during good promotions with limited availability (such as a limited number of machines), and the argument-in-defense that one pro may as well play the machines as much as he can because, if he doesn’t, other pros will do so (such that the masses of non-pros will get shut out either way): I think this defensive argument is only half valid. Yes, it’s true that, whatever one pro doesn’t “take”, the other pros will. But to me, that reality doesn’t make it totally OK. Substitute other situations, and the point becomes clear. You work at a company that has 50 employees and you see that someone has brought a cake to the kitchen, cut into 8 pieces. Is it OK for you to take a piece and eat it? Probably. But would it be OK for you to eat a 2nd piece? You can rationalize it and say that, no matter how many pieces you eat, most of the employees aren’t going to get a piece anyway, because all 7 of the other pieces are going to be taken by a small number of people. But it just seems wrong to take more than 1 piece. Or, in a less parallel scenario, imagine you’re walking downtown and notice a briefcase full of money in an alley. You can rationalize that, if you don’t take that money, someone else will do so. Though that is true, that doesn’t make it OK, because you know that the money isn’t yours. Rationalization can be a very slippery slope.
I only get to Las Vegas once or twice a year, and our first stop is usually Green Valley Ranch, I am a low roller… Last trip we ate dinner at Hank’s Steakhouse, my friend told me to give them my club card when we paid for dinner, it was a very nice dinner… After that I played a couple hours of live poker, and played a few twenty dollar bills worth of 100% quarter DDB video poker… This was all pre-pandemic. Every two months or so I now get a postcard from Green Valley, they consistently offered me rooms for $50 on weekdays, $79 for weekend nights, we have never stayed there. I got a new one last week, now every Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday night in March or April says COMP. I have never before been offered a COMP room from any casino, maybe they want California people, maybe they are getting desperate. When my brother and I get the vaccine, we are coming to Las Vegas, I am intrigued about staying at Circa, but Green Valley is now on the radar, I doubt Circa has much decent quarter video poker. My point is this all ebbs and flows, good games and good offers are based on their bottom lines, bean counters make the calls for corporations…
This is what I call a “great offer”. Comped rooms at GVR are defintely SOMETHING. Now what you could technially do is consider the value of each night as per your discretion. I would value it to 60-80 dollars. And what you could do for instance is play the “THEO” throug any machine until you have theoretially lost 60-80 dollars. This is what I usually do whenever I get a comped room. I give them something back for something I get. Even if you only lose the “theo” amount, then it would be a bad deal for the casino but at least you show them that you are willing to give them some action. I figured out that the “theo” amount usually comes within +/- 500 Dollars and you could actually hit 4 Aces or a Royal Flush by playing so much and then the free room is a nice little something. Even if you sometimes will lose the 500 Dollars.
The hotel room comps should be pretty easy to get from a casino because it costs them almost $0. If the room is empty they make $0. They are already paying the housekeeping staff, so there is no extra expense. They only have to clean the room and the sheets and towels and provide some additional soap and shampoo. If someone occupies the free room, the patron might actually spend money in the restaurants or play some in the casino. Everybody wins.
Bob,
You are 100% correct if the play is known by more than one player. If you discover a play that no one is aware of you might try to keep it under the radar. I discovered a 105% play that I wanted to hammer, but instead of playing it at the $5 level 16 hours a day I played at the $2 level about 30 hours per week. I realized the play might last if I did not bring to much attention to it. Fortunately I was able to play for 6 months making over $500 per hour. This is the best play of my career and I was about to give up VP because it is so hard to find positive plays these days.
GME, nuff said
Hey people, the situation about comped rooms is that us Europeans don’t get even half as many comps as local customers and people from within 150-200 miles range are receiving. That’s based on my research. The casinos know that if there is a customer from Europe flying into town, then he is also willing to pay for everything, which is halfway understandable. What I don’t get, however, is that a heavy player from overseas still it not getting the same comps that even a small time player is receiving on a regular basis by flier. The fact is, I am receiving all kinds of hotel discounts but these casinos seem to ignore that we Europeans currently can’t even enter the U.S. From this point of view it’s hard for me to follow. It looks like this pandemic will keep a hold on us for quite another time , so perhaps even for this year there will be no Las Vegas and all my tiers will be reset to the basic level. Which makes me a bit sad.
I completely agree Boris, the fact that there is no international and notably European travel to the US and Las Vegas is a very underpublicized impediment to any supposed recovery from Covid 19. Understandably us Americans are anxious and focused on ourselves getting vaccinated, but there is no full recovery until the whole world is vaccinated as well, otherwise mutations will continue to develop that threaten everyone. Las Vegas is the perfect storm, it relies on tourism and conventions, taking away international travel entirely is an anchor dragging down any possible recovery. The entire industrial world, any country outside the third world, has to step up to the plate to pay for and facilitate vaccinations for every poor country in the world, or we just won’t ever beat Covid. That fact will of course get some folks bent out of shape, but it is true. The world beat Ebola because the rich countries went to the epicenter and got their hands dirty helping out areas that badly needed it… A repeat of that is in order if you ask me…
“There are usually much better deals playing games slightly tighter, while taking advantage of the full slot club and promotions.”
As a general rule, I don’t relied on:
– points into cash, free play, comps, etc
– comps for food, rooms, etc
– mailers aka welfare checks
– promotions, etc
The answer is simple: I am not in CONTROL of those things. I especially avoid promotions since the low IQ APs & AP-wannabes all think similarly. For example, they need the promo like points multiplier to juice up the return.
I believe in strong plays using NPV or ROIC (some APs use IRR) as my metric. It’s all about networking, market researching, prospecting, and being patient. I can go months without being in a casino (and yes, thousands in free play and comps go unclaimed.)
Deals can change for the worst, machine paybacks can be NERFED, promotions get neutered, player reward benefits are downgraded, market conditions change as more APs and hustlers come to your market, casinos change their definition of heat, etc.
Focus on what you are in control of; it makes all the difference!
Hello Alexis
Thanks for your comment. To the most part, I must agree with that but this time in terms of pandemic, it’s not so easy because the whole world has the virus so it’s hard to tell where the epicenter currently would be. I can only tell you that it goes in waves and right now Portugal and Spain is currently badly being hammered by new infections (wave 3). U.K. as well. Unfortunately, some poor countries are not testing enough and sick people are not necessarily running to see the next doctor with the slightest signs of symtoms. So my bet is that India and many African countries have a wild spread of covid. South America will also need more time for recovery.
The mysery is that all International flights have been cancelled cut down to the point that only a small group of people may travel and vaccinating pace is slow because these few companies are unable to produce enough vaccines for the whole world. I therefore believe that this 2021 will remain as it is and only 2022 maybe could show us the end of the tunnel.
If you are a person depending on a job (like most of us) then it may become another rough year to survive in the working economy. If you’re retired, then it doesn’t make a big difference as you get you pension anyways. I am a bit concerned that not all casinos of Las Vegas will make it through 2021 , so new investors may jump in and take over. Which not necessarily must be a bad sign. I feel a bit sorry about the Fiesta casinos (both, Henderson and the one on Rancho). I like both places for their variety of good vp games. Since I can’t travel at this time it is my hope that by 2022 everythign will be back in place again. Of course I hope that once everything will be open the operators will not take the fun away by eliminating all of the good games…. // Greetings from Switzerland