Recently, a poster on the videopoker.com forum wrote words to the following effect: “I have no doubt that if I could ever learn to quit while I was ahead, I’d be far ahead at video poker, even though I play games returning only about 99%.”
Let’s look more closely at that statement.
Assume you’re playing Jacks or Better for quarters. On your very first hand you end up with two pair. You are ahead $1.25. Do you quit?
This is probably not what the poster meant by being ahead. He drove 20 miles for 30 minutes to get there and would not consider being ahead $1.25 worth his while. He’s not about to drive home now.
But, for now, let’s assume he did mean his statement literally. If he got ahead, at all, he’d quit. Usually, when he played, he’d end up a small amount ahead. He might hit a flush or a full house, or even, on very rare occasions, a royal flush. Often his score would be more than $1.25, but he’d quit whenever his head was above water at all.
Under these conditions, would he be a net winner over time?
The answer is no. The game returns 99%. Occasionally he loses everything he brings — $20, $200, $2000, whatever. The machine goes ice cold for some period of time and he never gets ahead in the entire session.
Eventually he loses enough and goes home. He then comes back the next day and wins $1.25, and $2.50 the next day, and . . . and sooner or later he’ll run into another cooler session again that will totally wipe him out.
This also works the same if he sets win and/or loss limits. He’ll keep playing until he gets, say, $50 ahead or $25 behind, or any other arbitrarily set amounts. There will be days when he gets $48.75 ahead, and then everything goes south. Over time, assuming he plays well, his scores will average 99% of his coin-in.
What I assume he really meant (and he is welcome to post in the comments that my assumption is incorrect and why) was that if he could quit when he reached the high point of the session (because somehow, he’d magically know that he was at the high point), he’d be ahead. In the case where $48.75 was his high point, in his mind he wants the ability to quit there if it doesn’t go any higher. If it moves up, he’ll take the higher amount. But if it goes down, he wants to lock in the $48.75.
If you can do this, you will definitely end up ahead. The problem is you never have enough information to do this. At any point in your gambling session, you might know where you are at that moment, but you can’t know what the next hands will bring until you play them. And if you play them and they go minus on you, you can’t unplay them and take the amount you had before you played.
So, technically speaking, this poster was correct. If he can do something that is impossible to do, he’ll definitely end up ahead. The problem is, he will never be able to do this. Whenever you quit, you’ll never know when the very next hand would have been a royal flush had you played it. About once every 40,000 sessions, that would be the case. But you’ll never know which one of the 40,000 sessions it was because you stopped just before that royal flush happened.
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One of the deficiencies in the postulated plan, as well as in many gambling systems (especially “cancellation” systems), is that there is no basis for designating the “stop” point (a certain amount of profit or loss). The story mentioned stopping if a win of $50 or a loss of $25 was reached. Why those numbers? First, why aren’t they the same? Why should the win-stop number be twice as much as the loss-stop number? Why is the win-stop number $50 instead of $40 or $30 or $25 or $20 or whatever? Far more rational is the plan stated by one famous gambler many years ago (I forget his name) in which if he got ahead and passed $100 marks he simply kept on playing and got as far ahead as he could and then when things started to “go south” he would stop playing when he got down to the next $100 mark down, however much that would be. (There was no mirror-image idea for when he was losing; he just stopped when he wanted to.) But all this excludes talking about time. Most people come to play and want to sit at a machine for at least 2 hours, maybe 3 or 4 or even 5. We would not stop after 10 or 20 minutes just because we got ahead a little bit. Sessions in which we get ahead and stay ahead for the whole session are few; most of the time, if we play for 2 hours or more, we will get behind at some point and maybe stay behind and be behind at the end.
Another funny “system” that I saw players persue is this: I watched this at the Suncoast casino many years back when they had a row of 10-16 NSUD machines on the 2nd floor across the entrance to the bingo room. A couple used to put in either a 20 dollar bill or a tickekt into the machine. As soon as they got something , such as a wild royal or a 5-of-a-kind which would bring them slightly ahead for this “quicky session” (the time frame from putting in the last bill/ticket), then they would immediately cash out and run over to the Bill-Breaker, Cashout machine, just to cash out the 25+ Dollars or whatever it was and then retourn to their VP machine and put in a new bill again, to start their play all over. I noticed this strategy because the cash-out noise the machine was creating was not to overhear and a bit too loud so it distracted me in a way but nothing I could do. These players (a couple) strictly followed their game plan and perhaps would play on until they had 200 or 300 dollars in 20 dollars bills in the machine and no more money to cash out.
I find such a strategy useless as the machine does not care if you are a new player or a returning player, whether you just won or lost, as every game is new. The strategy that’s behind this couple’s play was perhaps to give their play a little break and enjoy the cashout-process. Apart from that, I don’t see any reason why it should be a way to beat the machine. Plus , at times there was no more paper in the machine and play was halted , followed by loud noise from the machine , barking for new paper to be refilled. And this was extremely annoying for all players in the section trying to focus on their own game….
Time is a giant factor in your advantage play gambling, if you are retired and can play anytime you want for as long or short as you want to, use that to your advantage. That is why I do hit and run, I accept winnings, I accept the good results because over time you will of course have torrid cold streaks that chill you to the bone and dampen your spirit. Right now I am an Eskimo elder floating on an iceberg, but two weeks ago I won money seven straight times playing live poker, human emotions are something all of us get and have. If during my hot streak I stayed too long and gave some or all of it back, I would not have that confidence in my quiver, I would be way more down in the dumps right now. Have other hobbies, I believe from reading this blog Mr. Dancer square dances, he Alamans Left With The Corner Gal, good for him. I play golf for money at least three times a week when my health allows, it saves me from sitting in a chair for hours on end, which is not healthy… There is no perfect answer or strategy that applies to everyone, the good advantage player has the ability to see yourself and your shortcomings objectively, as if you could see yourself from the outside. If you are dishonest to yourself, your chances for success diminish greatly…
I think we have all been in situations where were up considerably and the machine start being “unfriendly”,
For me as illogical as it may sound, once the vibe has changed it’s time to cash out and perhaps move to another machine.
I have done this many times and fortunately I usually end up reversing the vibe. The other decidingfactor is my own governors i.e, ;I have a target number for ending the session (targets up and down) and I have gained enough experience and discipline to stop the.session when I hit either up or down marks. I try not to reach that point where machine starts to grind you down reversing your gains (quickly), Hence target numbers for win and loss.
We all have our own approaches to this issue. If it works you stay with it, if not you adjust
I always play until I get tired. When I start to get tired, I will set a maximum and minimum point and then quit when either is reached for ease of record keeping. Like the stock market, you cannot time VP results.
Al — the “far more rational” plan you cite won’t work any better than the arbitrary one set out in the article. a 99% game cannot be turned into a long term winner merely by any system.
Michael, I like your attitude , if I had a chance to live the life you described, I would not hesitate for a second , and make the move. Videopoker and Golf and a little 1-3 NOL at the Wynn, could it be any better in life? Not so sure on that one….
I live in Switzerland (thanks goodness we are covered during this pandemic) and whenever I visit Las Vegas, I enjoy at its fullest. One day… I will get in and hopefully can move over…for good 🙂
Best wishes, and enjoy your golfing
Boris
I still see this a lot.
P.S. What’s this the ‘+’ showing up in the spaces of our names?
Thank you my friend, I am indeed blessed to be able to do the things I love, year round here in Southern California… Retirement has been a dream come true, I was always fearful during my working days of dropping dead right after quitting working, I have read many stories like that, this May it will be ten years, I was a 15 handicap golfer back then, I am down to eight as we speak…
To quit when you’re tired seems to me a good strategy. I noticed that after about 4 or 5 hours in the session my play detoriates and I start making errors. Sometimes I make the false decision, and sometimes I catch myself pressing a hold button but not pressing it hard enough so the card will still be replaced instead of being held, or I overlook a very important hand because my eyes start to get tired. Late at nights, sometimes the brain simply doesn’t function any longer, so that’s probably a good moment to call it the day, no matter how many promotions are running. No promotion can be good enough to allow you making 10 or more major errors in one single hour of play.
I stop when I’ve won a decent jackpot, usually a FOAK, that kicks out $200 or more. I’m good with winning a $200 hand. $200 will buy a nice evening out with my wife, so really, we both win.
“Whenever you quit, you’ll never know when the very next hand would have been a royal flush had you played it.”
Duh. Isn’t that the mantra of compulsive, degenerate, dip into the kids’ college fund, casino gambling?
Ahhhh…. fond memories of when I used this strategy. Worked for months… yes months before the big drop.
Now, I’m glad to make EV. Satisfied to walk away with my bankroll intact. And much appreciate it when AV is well over EV.
Hello Sondjata
I see one good strategy that I personally would follow for the peace of mind, so to say. Since, like many others, I have the dream of financial freedom, I oftentimes calculate how much money is needed to live my life the way I would like to. So, it all begins with a budget where you calculate all manadtory expenses and other stuff (medical, mobilty, food, rent, whatever). And then, assuming I would be a local and regular player, I would calculate how much money is available for gaming purpose. I would set the priority and play strictly the good promotions first (multiplier days, senior days etc), so once you have this figured out. I would try to calculate how much money per session could I afford to make sure that my money would last as long as possible , per any given month. Once this is clear, I would play within this budget . When things go well in a month and promotions are good, I would extend my play, and limit the losses on the rainy days to make sure I’ll stay within my budget plan.